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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by DeToxRox, May 19, 2015.
I am sure I’m jinxing us but Cleveland is up 13 on Boston with 4 minutes left.
Fuck yes. I was gonna be especially pissed if the Cavs lost a thousand straight to end the season and out-tank us.
Of course, we know how the lottery seems to go their way anyways.
The lottery odds are such now that, in terms of having a top 4 pick, there's little difference between Houston/us (two worst records) and Cleveland (5th-worst). Houston has a 52% chance of picking top 4. Cleveland is something like 43%. Sure, I'll take the extra 9% chance, but it's not really worth tanking over. The bottom three teams have the same 14% chance at the top pick. Cleveland is still at 10.5% in fifth.
This this was a year where there was a clear cut top 2-3, and then a next tier, I don't think teams would be tanking like this. Since there's seemingly a clear top 5 and then a pretty significant drop off (I would say it's more like a top 4, but I'm not as high on Kuminga as some), the floor you get from your lottery seed is really the only reason to do it.
I think the 9% is worth it for us imo. We desperately need a legit star. I’m sick of being irrelevant.
Order does matter. The worst Houston could pick is 5. Cleveland could technically pick 9th.
that’s why you tank
Valenti was saying worst pistons could pick is 5th, is that not true
As of now, I believe it's 6th.
That's the thing with Pistons. I think this year was a step in right direction but they desperately need a star or its all going to be for nothing and they'll end up back in repeated mediocrity
And I would argue there is only a top 4 this year. That Kuzninga guy or whatever is shooting like 35% in the G League.
I assume the personal reasons are that he wants to play with Cade Cunningham
Stop playing this Diablo guy
i swear to god if this Sirvedas guy ruins the tank at the last second I'll lose it.
It’s super nice to have no lines at LCA for anything
Atlanta is a game up on Miami and the Hawks get the Rockets tomorrow, while Miami plays the Bucks tonight, with us tomorrow. Atlanta holds the head to head tiebreaker over Miami.
The Knicks and Heat are tied, and like Miami, the Knicks have two games left but Miami has the head to head tiebreaker.
I don’t see Atlanta losing tomorrow, so I am wondering if the Heat rest guys tonight to ensure a win tomorrow, which would lock up the five seed.
Or the heat win tonight, rest everybody tomorrow.
The Knicks play at one. I keep forgetting the Heat so have to stay even with them at a minimum, so a lot will depend on what happens this afternoon. The Knicks also play early tomorrow, while we play at 8. We really need the Knicks to be a game up going into our game tomorrow night.
Plumlee better not play
Lol it is hilarious that Sirvydis played well, and got benched. Diallo needs to fucking cut it out though
Heat are getting blown out right now. Is that good for them wanting to win tomorrow?
Knicks play at one tomorrow and we play at eight. If the Heat do lose tonight and the Knicks win tomorrow, the Heat have nothing to play for.
He actually got hurt. I had game on for 5 minutes and he came out with an injury
So we are gonna fuck this up tonight, right? Miami on back to back, and have nothing to play for.
Miami officially the six seed. Gonna be a total disaster tonight.
One more loss. Let’s go. Cue the final countdown
The worst we can do is a three-way tie for second-worst record. The odds for the top 4 picks in the lotto are the same for the bottom three. The difference between being third-worst and fourth-worst (if we lose all coin flips) is 52.14% to 48.08%. If we won the coin flips, we would still be the 2 seed in the lotto. I'd rather pick 6 than 8 in worst case scenarios, obviously, but we're going to be mad either way if we're outside the top 4.
Winning today is not a big deal if it happens.
yes it is a big deal.
Agreed. That's a big difference. Not only between 6-8, but the increased likelihood of being in the top 4 if we lose tonight.
I'm glad you guys are here to worry on my behalf, then
Yeah - don’t try to preempt our meltdown man. If the Pistons win, we’re gonna burn this motherfucker to the ground.
And this meltdown will be completely unrelated to what actually happens in the lottery
I had a nightmare this past week that the Pistons won a game and woke up very upset, so I’m definitely worrying enough for myself and MG2.
Great start boys. Finish strong.
Great quarter. Precious is killing me though with these FTs
I'll pretend Killian is dedicated to the tank and not that he just sucks. Last 6 quarters of basketball as the starting PG he's made one basket, which was an uncontested layup at the end of a blowout
Good end of season, now to see who want at 6th pick after we get fucked in lottery
We will have the highest odds to get the 5th pick. Chances of us and Houston both losing the lottery are pretty slim.
Kuminga has been pretty bad this year, so obviously need to get top 4.
52% - top 4 pick
28% - 5th pick
20% - 6th pick
I’m so happy.
I love that we limited how far we can fall, but I also hate that I know we are going to absolutely fall.
This is going to be one of the most important lotteries in years with the various ramifications for teams in the top 8. I can't remember a year where the upside/downside of this many teams was so clear. It's important every year, but this year isn't just about "who get _" at the top.
Just some of the examples...
- Houston has a weird pick swap with OKC that is top 4 protected. So either Houston picks in the top 4, or it gets nothing coming off eight years of Harden and contending.
- With that Houston result, OKC could pick 1st and 5th while having one of the most absurd collections of future picks ever over the next 6-7 years. Or it could just pick 7th.
- Minnesota loses it's pick to GS if it's not top 3. So, Minnesota could add another franchise-level guy to KAT and Edwards, or it gets nothing.
- If GS gets the 4th or 5th pick to add to Curry, Thompson coming back, Green and Wiseman, that's an insanely lucky outcome that helps them get right back to contending before Curry gets too old.
- Chicago had the 8th-worst record and loses its pick to Orlando if it's not in the top 4 because of the Vucevic deal. The teams that had the 7th and 8th-best odds have landed in the top 4 each of last two years since they changed the system.
- Orlando could have 2 top 10 picks, or only pick 6th or 7th.
- Detroit/Orlando probably have the biggest need of anyone for a superstar. Both have been nothing but mediocre the last 10+ years. This could finally be the year with both in the top 4 odds, or the unlucky streak continues or both just continue wandering aimlessly for another year.
As someone who is a Florida State fan and who sees Scottie Barnes as the projected 6th pick, there is a huge difference between 4 and 6 this year. He is an absolute project.
Pistons 2021 NBA Draft board 1.0: Ranking Cade Cunningham and five other potential picks
By James L. Edwards III May 16, 2021 32
A transformational season in Detroit has reached its completion. A year absent of much winning but bearing bubbling optimism now steers fans to the potentially celebratory period of the NBA calendar: the offseason.
With the Pistons’ 120-107 season-ending loss to the Heat on Sunday, the franchise in the midst of Phase I of a “restoring” has secured the best odds at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. Additionally, it’s secured a 52.1 percent chance at a top-four pick. And — if you’re a Detroit sports fan you’ll appreciate this one — there’s no way that the Pistons can pick No. 7 or 8 for the fifth time since 2010, as the second-worst record in the NBA guarantees a selection no lower than No. 6.
Ultimately, it all comes down to luck. The ping-pong balls will dictate the fate of these NBA franchises. The Pistons, however, did their best at putting themselves in the best position to begin this pivot on the right foot.
Here, we’re going to examine what Detroit’s big board might look like this far out from the draft.
1. Cade Cunningham, G/W, Oklahoma State
The 19-year-old freshman is in a tier of his own. He’s the belle of the ball. Every decision-maker with a realistic chance at getting the No. 1 pick is talking to the Basketball Gods about Cunningham before turning off the night light.
Well, there’s nothing he can’t do. If you need the 6-foot-8 Cunningham to play point guard, he can do that. He was a willing and unselfish passer at the highest level of prep basketball. Cunningham can be your go-to scorer. His 20.1 points per game with 40-percent 3-point clip and 57.4 true-shooting percentage while playing for a blah Oklahoma State team showed that. Defensively, he can guard multiple player types given his size, compete level and instincts. Cunningham has it all.
In Detroit, Cunningham would be the face of the rebuild. He’d be the additional scorer needed to take some of the load off of Jerami Grant. He’d be the multipurpose ballhandler to take some of the weight off of 2020 rookie Killian Hayes. Cunningham is the type of player you start from Day 1 and build around.
The narrative surrounding the Pistons changes if the lottery goes in their favor. This becomes a young team that could potentially push for the playoffs next season and has one of the brightest futures in the NBA.
2. Evan Mobley, C, USC
Mobley isn’t in Cunningham’s tier, but he’s no consolation prize, either. It wouldn’t be a complete shocker if he ended up as the best player in this class when the dust settles.
Standing at 7 feet tall, Mobley carries a unique skillset for someone his size. Offensively, he can put the ball on the floor and make plays for himself and others. There’s absolutely a world in which he’s often effectively used as the ballhandler in pick-and-roll actions as he grows into the NBA game. Mobley can be an elite rim-runner. He can go the length of the floor as a lefty. There’s potential for Mobley to step out and hit jumpers. Defensively, though, is where his greatest impact can be, especially early on. At USC he showed tremendous instincts as both a rim protector and when defending away from the basket. His instincts and long reach made him a nuisance for opposing guards and wings. Mobley has good hips and feet, which will annoy guards in the pick-and-roll. Mobley’s slender frame is one negative on him coming into the draft but by no means is it a dealbreaker.
If Mobley ends up in Detroit, he and Isaiah Stewart can share the floor together. Stewart, too, is mobile and has the potential to guard bigger forwards while Mobley uses his length to protect the rim. On the other end, as I said before, Mobley has shot-creation and playmaking abilities. You could see Mobley-Stewart pick-and-rolls. Also, Stewart has quickly shown that 3-point shooting is going to be part of his repertoire. Spacing shouldn’t be a major issue with those two alongside one another.
3. Jalen Green, G, G League Ignite
If you asked me to predict right now what the Pistons would do with the No. 3 pick if Cunningham and Mobley are both off the board, I’d confidently say Green is the choice.
During a recent media availability, Detroit head coach Dwane Casey said the team needs to add “finishing, scoring and shooting” to its young core in order to propel itself moving forward. Green solves those problems. The 19-year-old is a natural scorer who might even be one of the best bucket-getting prospects in quite some time. Our very-own Sam Vecenie has a higher draft grade on Green than he did Anthony Edwards, who went No. 1 overall last draft.
Green has the quickness and strides to get past defenders and the ability to finish off of one or two feet. He’s got a nice shooting touch and even converted on a respectable 36.5 percent of his 3s (5.7 attempts per game) in 15 games with the Ignite. Green doesn’t appear to be a sparkling playmaker for others right now and his defensive impact leaves a lot to be desired from talking to people, but he’s a bonafide scorer who would fill a glaring hole in Detroit.
4. Jalen Suggs, G, Gonzaga
Suggs is probably the most recognizable name thus far simply because he was the best player on the No. 1 college team in the country (until the title game). But while other teams might be champing at the bit to land him, I think Detroit has the above three names graded higher as of now. Now, don’t get me wrong; the Pistons would be ecstatic to land the guard who has very few holes in his game. This draft class has a fantastic top four, and any one of these names could change Detroit’s fortunes in the immediate future.
The 6-foot-5 Suggs has a great combination of power and finesse. He can burst past a defender off of the dribble and explode in the paint or dance with his man and finish with craft. Suggs is a lead ballhandler who showed improvements as a pick-and-roll passer as the college season played out. Defensively, of the perimeter players already named, Suggs might have the most upside. His on-ball defense could be a consistent treat with the right coach — which Casey would be — and situation. His jumper likely will determine his ceiling. If Suggs can become a consistent 3-point shooter, he’s an All-Star player. If he can’t, he might just be a solid player.
The fit with Hayes will be interesting. If Suggs ends up being the selection, I think you see Hayes playing more off the ball than you might have anticipated. Suggs’ assertiveness to score, coupled with his creation, makes him a prime candidate to initiate offense at the next level.
5. James Bouknight, W, Connecticut
After the first four names, I believe there’s a pretty big jump to the next tier of prospects. Because of that, the Pistons and general manager Troy Weaver, I assume, would lean more on instincts and gut feeling if Detroit dropped to No. 5.
In comes Bouknight, who many pundits have as a late lottery pick at the moment. However, when you examine Detroit’s needs, the 20-year-old does make sense. Bouknight averaged 19 points per game this past season and, at 62.7 percent, converted at an extremely high clip on shots at the rim in a half-court setting. Bouknight is an athlete with great potential as a shot-creator. He can get to the basket, thanks to a quick first step, and finish with either force or craft. Bouknight also has a good knack for cutting and for finding spaces in the defense without the ball. He did, however, only shoot 29.3 percent from 3 as a sophomore, but the sense I get is that not too many people are worried about his shot as he evolves.
If a prospect with high upside as a scorer and shot creator is what the Pistons are looking for, there’s a case to be made that Bouknight is the way to go if the names above him on this list are off the board.
6. Jonathan Kuminga, W/F, G League Ignite
The 18-year-old is the biggest project of this bunch, but he carries all of the physical tools that might make another season of minimal winning worth it.
Kuminga is 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot wingspan and carries a frame that could really fill out. There’s potential for an intriguing shot-creator in Kuminga and he also moves well without the ball. He’s athletic and can get into the paint and finish in various ways. Kuminga rebounded the ball really well in the G League. He plays hard. There’s an attitude to the way he goes about his business. Kuminga would fit right into the Pistons’ young core from that perspective.
Now, for the negatives: Kuminga’s jump shot didn’t fall like you’d want it to in his first taste of professional basketball, but I don’t think it’s broken by any means. There are times it looks fluid. He’s also got a ways to go as a team defender but the work rate at which he plays suggests, with time, he could be special on that end. There’s versatility there with his frame and athleticism.
As I mentioned before, it’s possible that Kuminga would spend a good portion of next season in the G League. Despite the tremendous two-way upside, he is considered a project.
Here are Kuminga’s G League stats, both traditional and advanced:
Now here are the G League stats of Sekou Doumbouya as a rookie:
It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, as Doumbouya did play professionally before coming over to the United States. However, the numbers do suggest that it may take some time for Kuminga to find a consistent role in the NBA as a rookie.
This lottery odds stuff is way too complicated.
Just view it as equal odds we get 1-4 or 5-6.