Detroit Red Wings: Priority Waste - Our Sponsor and Our Defense Core

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by DeToxRox, Jan 24, 2016.

  1. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Izzo
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    That’s a decent 2nd line. I like moving Fabri over to wing.

    I think Greiss starts in net.
     
  2. DeToxRox

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  3. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Izzo
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    Svechnikov was such an awful pick.
     
  4. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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    He honestly wasn’t a bad pick. His first year in the AHL was pretty damn impressive. I think he lost his edge when he didn’t stick with the big club that second year, and then that ACL injury totally derailed him.
     
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  5. Manny

    Manny I love Lip

    Nah
     
  6. Constant

    Constant Meh
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    Are we becoming mediocre??
     
  7. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    Honestly more i think about it, more i think this could be a non bottom 5 team. We weren't really as far behind second worse team if you look at our splits by goalie.

    Last year were 15-22-3 with Bernier and 2-27-2 with everyone else. Just replacing last years Howard with Greiss would put them in line with the other bad teams. The other improvements and additions by subtraction and I think this team, while still not a playoff team, could finish 20-25th in standings
     
  8. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Izzo
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    I’m thinking playoffs. LFG
     
  9. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    So at this point it seems unlikely we see any of Seider, Rasmussen and Veleno this year, right?
     
  10. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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    Correct.

    At this point the only players on loan I expect to have back for the opener are Hronek and Zadina.

    We could get Seider, Rasmussen and co. back after the TDL though, as those leagues playoffs will be over in May.
     
  11. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    If cap friendly is right, makes a ton more sense to hold on and not play Nielsen this year and buy him out next

    First number is cap hit if bought out next year, second is if this year

    2020 - $5.25, $3.4 mil
    2021 - $4.25, $4.4 mil
    2022 - $500k, $666k
    2023 - $0, $666k

    I'd rather eat the extra 2 mil this year to save cap room in 2021 and 2022 and not have it on books anymore in 2023
     
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  12. DeToxRox

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    Raymond vs Berggren today
     
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  13. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    1. I am impressed how easy it has been for Yzerman to recruit free agents to sign here...on very favorable terms to boot. These aren’t A level guys but they also aren’t scrubs that didn’t have offers from elsewhere. He has a lot of clout with players. Detroit might still be a destination. Imagine how much easier it will be to sell guys if/when the team is actually good.

    2. It is easy to fill out the bottom half of your roster with players that can win on the cheap. Stecher can be a bottom pairing D on a winner. Same with Namestnikov on your 3rd line. They won’t have those roles here because we still suck but you get the point

    3. You also can’t find A talent in free agency regularly. Raymond, Seider and ‘21 draft pick need to hit and hit big to win playoff rounds. Nothing else really matters if they bust.

    4. We are going to have like 12 picks in each of the next two drafts. There are so many guys that are primed to get traded at the deadline this year and next based on current contracts

    5. I’m super excited about not watching Abdelkader, Ericsson and Daley play this upcoming season

    6. It’s not galaxy brain stuff but it’s refreshing that a GM in this city makes the right call 99% of the time. Not everything will work out but he’s patient and has a common sense plan
     
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  14. DeToxRox

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    2A for Berggren
     
  15. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    Raymond with the shootout winner
     
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  16. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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  17. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    Obviously there are a lot of areas that could be upgraded from what they have, but there is no obvious "need" left so not surprised. I mean 19 guys play every night and we currently sitting at 6 new players minimum and that's not including any potential guys from GR coming up. 7 if want to potentially count Gagner who barely played last year for us because of the lockdown after the trade and 8 if you count DeKeyser coming back from injury.

    That's about 40% roster turnover from last years regulars. And I'd say all are upgrades.

    Edit to add if Timashov makes opening roster that is another guy who only played like 5 games for us last year. Tremendous turnover, could be as high as 9 guys opening night who didn't play at all last year or were late acquisitions / injured most of year.
     
    #5667 DetroitNole, Oct 12, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2020
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  18. IHHH

    IHHH Well-Known Member
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    looked at his highlights, dude will be unreal. He looks like a smoother Pettersson. The way he shoots the puck is not normal. His release his incredible.

    that goal against askarov in ot in the under 18 tournament, my god. Good pick
     
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  19. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    Who can the Wings fleece Vegas for?

    They need to cut $2.1 mil in cap by tomorrow and $6.9 mil by start of season
     
  20. DeToxRox

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    They will probably move Fleury or Schmidt. At this point we are best off retaining salary as a third team in a deal.
     
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  21. spartanchuck

    spartanchuck Well-Known Member

     
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  22. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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  23. Manny

    Manny I love Lip

    What terms are we thinking for Bert and Mantha?
     
  24. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    Domi just got $5.3 mil for two years. Same draft class as Mantha and Bertuzzi. Put up similar stats to Bertuzzi last year but has had a higher peak year than even Mantha has. Id guess Bert gets closer to $5 maybe high $4 and I wouldn't be shocked if Mantha gets a contract closer to Larkin (over $6) and maybe closer to 7 if it's longer than a bridge deal.

    Wings probably want to get Bert on a bridge deal to see how he develops in next couple seasons and I'd bet Mantha would want a bridge deal too because if he stays healthy and puts it all together for a full season he could be looking at a real big pay day
     
    #5674 DetroitNole, Oct 13, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2020
  25. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    Downloaded NHL 21 and Stutzle is extremely disrespected in their initial rosters. Jack Quinn too. Holtz overrated

    Lafreniere is 82 (elite)l
    Byfield, Holtz and Raymond 77 (elite)
    Perfetti is 72 (elite)
    Stutzle is 70 (elite)
    Drysdale 69 (top 4 d potential)
    Rossi is 68 (top 6 forward potential)
    Jack Quinn 55 (top 9 forward)

    Berggren is only a 56 overall too, he will be in line for a nice bump. He at least has top 6 forward potential
     
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  26. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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  27. DeToxRox

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    Scott Wheeler updated his top 50 prospects. Raymond is 5 and Seider is 22.

    Seider’s rating is consistent with what Wheeler has always said about Seider, which is there is zero doubt that he will play a ton, but his upside is limited by Wheeler’s belief that Seider isn’t going to be a PP guy, which is probably justified.

    Seider playing a year in Sweden might be a blessing in disguise because while he will be one of, if not the most, physical player in the league, the style of play is going to force him to be more aggressive offensively.
     
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  28. Manny

    Manny I love Lip

    Who/player archetype is an ideal Seider partner? The glut of top D prospects next year are tantalizing.
     
  29. DeToxRox

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    The ideal partner in our system is Albert Johansson, though ideally we land a LD in the mold of Krug who can rove a bit to really get the most out of Seider.
     
  30. Manny

    Manny I love Lip

    Luke Hughes it is. Thanks! ;)
     
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  31. DeToxRox

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    Thank god they are giving the WJC a go this season because we are going to have a ton of players involved.

    Locks

    Raymond (SWE)
    Johansson (SWE)
    Walinder (SWE)
    Seider (GER) - Unless Detroit doesn’t find it necessary for him to play
    Bednar (CZE)
    Tuimisto (FIN)

    Likely making the cut

    Soderblom (SWE)
    Niederbach (SWE)
    Viro (FIN)

    Coin Flip

    Mastrimone (USA)
    Grewe (SWE)

    Dark Horse

    Berglund (SWE)
    Hamas (USA)


    I am probably missing a guy or two as well.
     
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  32. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    Long read on the Lightning cap problems. They are absolutely fucked. The cup rules all but this is going to be tough.

    What we’re hearing about the Lightning’s struggle to clear cap space

    [​IMG]
    By Joe Smith 6h ago[​IMG] 43 [​IMG]
    Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois has a more pressing challenge than trying to build another Stanley Cup winner.

    He’s got to tackle his toughest cap crunch ever during a pandemic-stressed market and be cap compliant by the expected January start of next season. The penalty is much stiffer than a large fine or lost draft picks.

    “It’s not an ‘option,” NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly said Wednesday. “Team doesn’t play.”

    BriseBois is confident the Lightning will be compliant by next season — “we have no choice,” he said — but how they’ll get there is a mystery wrapped in a riddle. Tampa Bay has around $79 million of an $81.5 million flat cap already committed to just 18 players, with star RFAs Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak among those who need hefty raises.

    That means BriseBois will need to create around $10 million of cap space, trying to deal from a roster full of no-trade clauses and peers who are staring down their own problems.

    “Every GM knows Tampa’s situation,” said one league source. “The biggest problem is (BriseBois) needs other people, and nobody wants to help.”

    Still, those people would rather have BriseBois’ plight, with the Lightning just three weeks removed from hoisting hockey’s holy grail. They knew this cap crunch was coming for a year, and BriseBois told owner Jeff Vinik as much before making a couple significant deadline deals.

    “There’s no guarantees,” BriseBois said. “But this is as good a time as any to put all the chips in.”

    When a team hits the jackpot, winning a Cup, all those moves seem worth it. Flags fly forever.

    “If I had passed up opportunities to give every possible chance to win this season, and we didn’t win the Cup?” BriseBois said. “I wouldn’t have been able to live down the regret I would have had.”

    The Lightning have at least two and a half months to figure it out, but their progress has been slow moving so far. They can be 10 percent over the cap (so closer to $90 million) until the start of next season. But, eventually, something has to give. Teams are already spending their capital in free agency, with nine teams having less than $1 million of cap space left, 14 fewer than $5 million. Many organizations are expected to have self-imposed budgets due to the pandemic and may not spend to the cap.

    “The longer we wait, the fewer options we may have,” BriseBois admitted on Oct. 1.

    Here’s what we’ve heard so far on the Lightning’s struggles to clear cap space:

    Tyler Johnson
    The Lightning’s first plan was to try to move Tyler Johnson, who has four years remaining at $5 million AAV. The 30-year-old has a full no-trade clause but was willing to work with Tampa Bay, giving them 7-8 teams where he’d be open to getting dealt.

    Then BriseBois put Johnson on waivers.

    My bet is this not only surprised Johnson but hurt him a bit, too. I initially thought when the Lightning put Johnson on waivers that they had a deal in place where they’d be giving up assets, but tried to see if someone would claim him with no compensation. No such luck.

    There are some execs who believe the Lightning might have miscalculated the market, thinking they’d be able to move Johnson quickly and get some assets back in the process. Instead, it’s become pretty clear that if Tampa Bay is going to move Johnson, they’ll need to add a sweetener, a pick or prospect, or retain some salary.

    It’s one thing to say you can trade for Johnson and then expose him in next summer’s Seattle expansion draft, where the Spokane native could be a good fit. But there’s no guarantees the Kraken would take him, so that’s a risk for any team.

    “The contracts are prohibitive,” said one league source. “It’s too much for guys that aren’t as productive, and the contract becomes an albatross.”

    Where are Johnson trade talks now?

    “The market has stalled,” said another league source. “Teams are sitting back and waiting.”

    It sounds like Johnson’s camp is still working with the Lightning to find the right fit, and I believe they may have even given BriseBois another team to try to deal with. Johnson is back in his offseason home in Idaho waiting this one out. You have to feel for Johnson in a sense that he worked for this contract and no-trade, won a Cup and yet is still trying to accommodate the only NHL team he’s ever known into dealing him.

    There’s nothing imminent on a Johnson deal, which means Tampa Bay could eventually have to explore other avenues.

    Steven Stamkos
    When we first broke down the Lightning’s offseason plans, we suggested there would be some “surprises.”

    And not including captain Steven Stamkos among the team’s untouchables certainly fits that category. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman floated in his 31 Thoughts column the other day that he thinks the Lightning have talked to Stamkos and asked him if he’d waive his full no-move clause.

    Here is what we’ve heard, from my The Athletic colleague Pierre LeBrun:

    “My understanding is that the cap-challenged Lightning did talk to (Stamkos) and his camp a few weeks ago about whether he’d consider a move. And I get it from the organization’s point of view, they are up against it with the cap, the unforeseen events of a global pandemic on the NHL finances are nobody’s fault, and to be blunt, they just won a Cup essentially without him.

    “But Stamkos has 100 percent no-move power in his deal, which has four more years at a $8.5 million cap hit. He decides what happens. And my sense is that he’s decided he’s staying put until further notice. And that’s his right, especially given that he took less to stay in Tampa. That $8.5 million AAV wasn’t meant to travel to other markets.”



    I don’t blame Stamkos if he intends to finish out the rest of his Hall of Fame career in Tampa Bay. He’s earned that right, having been a face of the franchise for so long, helping set the culture of taking less to keep the group together. I know owner Jeff Vinik has a strong relationship with Stamkos, calling the moment he re-signed with the Lightning one of the most important days in Tampa Bay sports history. This is understandably a sensitive situation, with nobody really wanting to talk about it; agent Don Meehan declined to confirm or deny talks with Tampa about Stamkos’ no-move, maintaining conversations with him and BriseBois are “private.” And there’s an added layer of Stamkos’ health, as he just underwent a second surgery for a core repair last week, with the team expecting him back for the start of next season. But with only 2 minutes, 47 seconds of game time since late February, there’s always going to be questions until Stamkos actually suits up on opening night.

    Even if the Lightning wanted to move Stamkos, and if Stamkos gave the OK, I still think it would be tough to deal him based on his cap hit and his health. The PR hit for Tampa Bay would be a big one. But I don’t see Stamkos going anywhere. I haven’t spoken to Stamkos since the end of the season, but he’s always told me how much he loves it here. He’s been in Tampa since he was an 18-year-old prodigy. He’s grown up here, putting down roots, with him and his wife Sandra raising a one-year-old son Carter. Stamkos just lived his dream hoisting the Cup with his best friend Victor Hedman. This team, assuming they get out of cap jail, should contend for years. Why would Stamkos want to leave?

    The fact this is even a topic of conversation shows how difficult of a situation the Lightning are facing.



    Other options
    *The Lightning do not want to trade Alex Killorn, though he does offer the most flexibility in that his no-trade is modified (16-team list to where he can’t be dealt). Killorn is coming off a career season with 26 goals, has emerged as a leader (alternate captain) and his contract (three years, $4.45 million AAV) isn’t bad by any stretch. He is one of the players that could get value back, as we broke down last week in our trade tiers piece.



    *The Lightning have not approached Braydon Coburn about a trade yet. Coburn, 35, has one year left on his contract at $1.7 million, with a full no-trade. Tampa Bay could try to save some money by trading him and Cedric Paquette (one year left, $1.65 million). The Lightning gave Coburn a two-year extension before last season, including the no-trade, for a veteran who has a family that’s been in the area for five years now.

    *Yanni Gourde anchored the Lightning’s dynamic third line in the playoffs, bouncing back in a big way from a “rattling” two-month goal drought during the regular season. Few players boosted their stock more in the postseason than Gourde, who has five years left at a $5.166 million AAV. For what it’s worth, the Lightning haven’t checked in with Gourde’s camp regarding his no-trade as they did with Johnson. They still could eventually as the offseason goes on, but for now, he’s not part of trade talks. It would probably take a lot to move that kind of term and cap hit as it is.

    *Ondrej Palat, 29, has a full no-trade as well, but he’s probably the one guy that Tampa Bay would least want to move. He is coming off playing some of the best hockey of his life, serving as the perfect complement to Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov on the top line. He’s making $5.3 million in each of the next two years.

    *Tampa Bay’s free agency shopping is likely close to done, having reached agreements with Pat Maroon (two years, $900,000 AAV) and Luke Schenn (one year, $700,000), with a reunion with Jan Rutta likely. They still need to re-sign RFAs Mathieu Joseph and Alex Volkov, like they did with Mitchell Stephens last week. Here’s their updated depth chart:



    The Lightning will eventually have to make some uncomfortable decisions, because they need more than just moving Johnson to make this work cap-wise. Dealing $5 million isn’t going to cut it. But there aren’t many teams rushing to take on cap space.

    “There’s only so many Ottawas and Detroits out there,” said a league source. “It’s not so easy.”

    Restricted free agents
    *The Lightning have been in talks with their key restricted free agents Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak. BriseBois called signing the three a “priority” for his offseason, noting how they’ll be the next wave of the core that keeps the team successful. It’s hard to get a read on how negotiations are going, but we did our best in breaking down projections for each of the three players, based on comparable contracts, the Lightning’s philosophy and negotiations with Brayden Point last summer.



    Our projections for the three, if they are indeed bridge deals:

    Sergachev: Three years, $5.25 million AAV

    Cirelli: Two years, $3.7 million AAV

    Cernak: Two years, $2.4 million AAV

    Trade partners
    This is where it gets tricky.

    There are only a certain number of teams who have the kind of cap space to be a suitable partner and take on a contract like Johnson or Killorn or others. We’re talking about the Red Wings, Senators, Devils and Blue Jackets as top candidates. And Columbus, with $13.625 million in cap space, still needs to sign star RFA Pierre Luc-Dubois.

    [​IMG]

    What will a deal cost or net?

    The Rangers had to give up a 2021 second-round pick for the Red Wings to take one year of defenseman Marc Staal at a $5.7 million cap hit.

    The Hurricanes got a fifth-round pick for Joel Edmundson.

    The Blue Jackets got just a 2021 fifth-round pick for veteran defenseman Ryan Murray.

    Paul Stastny went to Winnipeg from Vegas for a fourth-rounder and Carl Dahlstrom.

    The Islanders got two second-round picks for RFA defenseman Devon Toews.

    Nate Schmidt netted just a 2022 third-round pick from Vancouver for Vegas.

    What do we learn from this? Most of these deals clearing cap space didn’t offer much of a return or required a sweetener. Schmidt, 29, who has five years left at $5.95 million AAV, did net a future pick, which is still underwhelming, but at least it showed teams can move a contract of that length and size; Schmidt only had a modified no-trade clause.

    Johnson is still a versatile and capable player who could play up the middle in the top six of several teams. But it sounds like Tampa Bay would have to give up something (like the Rangers did with Staal) to make it work or retain salary. As for sweeteners? The Lightning have all their picks the next three seasons, except their 2021 second-rounder (which they dealt at this year’s draft to add a pick in the second round).

    “Everyone wants picks,” said a league source. “But no one wants to give them up.”

    There’s prospects Tampa Bay could attach, though with a need to replenish their pipeline, you can bet they’ll be reticent to do that. The Lightning still have time, at least a few months, to get it done. But in a “stalled market,” with not a lot of teams willing to take on term and cap, they’ll have to get creative.

    “When camp ends, teams like Tampa will have no choice but to put really good players on waivers,” said another league source. “Available for nothing. That’s the kind of stuff you could see. Just a rough situation.”
     
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  33. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    Yzerman is in prime position for a fleecing with Tampa and/or elsewhere.

    No increase to the cap(potentially for more than this year) plus few organizations willing to take on the actual dollars.

    I am surprised now that we took Staal for only a 2nd that early in the window.
     
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  34. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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    The issue is still that all these guys have to approve a trade here. At the very least we will be able to be used as a third party to move money through.
     
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  35. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    Agree. I think the most likely and most beneficial move would be as a third party taking on salary and not the player.
     
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  36. buckwild

    buckwild #BucketsGetsBuckets
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  37. Manny

    Manny I love Lip

    Does he still weigh as much a paper bag on skates?
     
  38. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    Young Talent NHL Org Ranks from The Athletic (Corer Pronman)

    13. Detroit Red Wings

    Pre-draft org ranking: No. 18
    2020 NHL Draft grade: A-

    Things are getting better in Detroit. There’s still a lot of work to do given the Red Wings won 17 games last season. In terms of young players, they still need a lot more, particularly of the top of the lineup variety, but things are moving in the right direction. Their No. 4 pick Lucas Raymond has the potential to be one of the keys to ending the tough times.

    1. Lucas Raymond, LW
    2. Moritz Seider, D
    3. Filip Hronek, D
    4. Filip Zadina, RW
    5. Joe Veleno, C
    6. Jared McIsaac, D
    7. Michael Rasmussen, C
    8. William Wallinder, D
    9. Dennis Cholowski, D
    10. Jonatan Berggren, RW
    11. Elmer Soderblom, RW
    12. Robert Mastrosimone, LW
    13. Donovan Sebrango, D
    14. Albert Johansson, D
     
  39. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    Listed at 172 lbs on Elite Prospects.

    Seems generous
     
  40. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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    Didn’t even realize Raymond played with Mursak

     
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  41. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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    Shit I didn’t even realize Soderblom and Neiderbach were called up
     
  42. The Banks

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    Three prospects on the same team is pretty neat.
     
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  43. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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    And they are playing against Veleno
     
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  44. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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    So far Raymond has an assist and Veleno has 1+1
     
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  45. Manny

    Manny I love Lip

  46. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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  47. The Banks

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    Where’s our boy Elmer?

    nvm see him as an extra forward
     
  48. The Banks

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    We need to do what it takes to grab Wallstedt next year
     
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  49. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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    Seider vs Raymond today and Seider vs Berggren Saturday
     
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  50. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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