Detroit Red Wings: Everybody (but Vin) Loves Raymond

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by DeToxRox, Jan 24, 2016.

  1. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox We dug coal together
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    So at this point the league year won’t start until at least January 15th. It’s figured to be around a 60 game season, with the hope of ending the playoffs before the Olympics. The SHL playoffs end in March, barring further delays. That should mean that we are roughly 30 games into the NHL season when the SHL season ends. If you figure any guy in Sweden needs a few weeks to get back over and get brought up to speed, there still should be 15-20 games for those guys to potentially play for the Wings.
     
  2. The Banks

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  3. The Banks

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    Wings have 7 prospects with Sweden. Should be a fun WJC
     
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  4. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.




    but then later this game, that pretty dirty no?

     
  5. The Banks

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    Lucky he went into the boards flat.
     
  6. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

  7. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
    Donor

    Am I wrong to think that's not bad value for us if we did that? That's a ton of money to tie up for the next 3-4 years.
     
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  8. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    I want nothing to do with Johnson contract. That kills a lot of our cap flexibility. Id need a hell of a lot more than a first to even think about that
     
  9. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    We got a 2nd to take Staal on for one year. Johnson has 4 years left, Killorn 3.

    In theory if we just kept taking one year dumps like we did with Staal, if we just wanted to eat 10 mil next 3 years and 5 mil a year after we could get somewhere around 7 2nd rd picks using the Staal as a base. Sure we could swing multiple 1sts at least if we just want to eat cap. Also think this team could compete in 3 years and this would hamper that greatly
     
  10. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    I think it’s close. That proposed deal would be good for just Johnson. If they throw Killorn in as well I’d expect another little sweetener on top.

    Killorn by himself turns into an asset to flip if we take on part of his contract. His term and salary is already better value than Johnson
     
  11. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox We dug coal together
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    The hope with taking Johnson is that Seattle takes him in the expansion draft. It’s probably likely they would because he’s still solid, they need some big deals and he’s from the area. It’s a big gamble though.
     
  12. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    Right, but I think the combination of both creates a much larger commitment to take on. I think you could say, on an individual basis (meaning Johnson + a 1st, and the Killorn + a smaller asset) is reasonable value. But taking both is less valuable and creates a need for more comp, it would seem.
     
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  13. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox We dug coal together
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    The reason I don’t buy the rumor is there are teams that would trade assets for Killorn imo. Just not what Tampa wants at this point.
     
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  14. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    I think they are ready to compete in 3 years as well. There are couple things to point out with your theory I think. Staal is not a useful player at all. Both Johnson and Killorn are assets on your team at the right price. I don’t think it would be safe to assume you could find multiple trading partners each year to stockpile 2nd rounders like that. For as much as it’s talked about these deals don’t happen that regularly. I understand it’s just in theory though so I take your point

    If we did the deal I’d be very surprised if it impacts us in three years substantially. Trade, buyouts, expansion draft could all be in play.
     
  15. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    Somewhat agree. I don’t think Killorn would be at the top of the list of guys they would even want to move.

    Eric Duhatsxhek at The Athletic thinks otherwise. Johnson and Killorn are his top two suggestions
     
    #5815 hoss2183, Dec 7, 2020
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2020
  16. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    Nobody wants Johnson at that salary, and why take on years of commitment to buy him out? I think its ridiculous to assume Seattle would take him when the Wings will have younger cheaper players unprotected and im sure teams will leave better players unprotected with high salary to get cap compliant.

    While they aren't all good players, we already have a logjam of forwards to play this year. We don't need more 3rd liners, especially overpaid ones.

    Now if you wanted to talk just taking on Killorn I would listen but I'd need something too to take him on. He is a better player and contract is slightly more manageable, but I wouldn't want to give up anything for him on this team

    If this a situation we want to add assets to eat cap, I think we can get more assets to eat up that cap space, if it's you want to bring in guys to help, you can get way better value than those guys at those contracts. So I dont see the point for us doing it unless its an offer you can't refuse
     
    #5816 DetroitNole, Dec 7, 2020
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2020
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  17. The Banks

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    Killorn is decent but is expected to decline. With his term and the known fact that taking him greatly helps Tampa, I can see why no one is offering to help them out. Individually he might have a little value but given the situation he’s still a negative for Tampa.
     
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  18. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    You take anything on and there is risk. That is the point of the trade I think. In order to get impactful assets you have to take the risk. I’m not advocating for it necessarily but I think there are many possible ways a smart GM can get out of paying those guys their full contracts. That why I pointed it out. It’s not likely at all you would be paying Killorn or Johnson their full remaining terms

    Also I agree it’s ridiculous to plan that Seattle takes Johnson. If you look who will be available from the Wings in the expansion draft its trash, trash and more trash however.
     
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  19. The Banks

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    Also Spokane is like a foreign country to Seattle.
     
  20. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    Forwards going nowhere (9)
    Larkin
    Mantha
    Bertuzzi
    Helm
    Fabbri
    Namestnikov
    Ryan
    Zadina
    Timashov

    Forwards on roster i dont care if play but probably going nowhere (5)
    Nielsen
    Filppula
    Glendening
    Erne
    Gagner

    Prospects who should get a look (4)
    Rasmussen
    Svechnikov
    Hirose
    Smith

    And that doesn't include Brome, Veleno or Raymond who may get a couple game look when their season ends

    Don't know where you're fitting in 2 overpriced middle 6 forwards without taking away PT from someone already on roster
     
  21. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    FYI Timashov hasn't signed anywhere and might just abort for overseas and Svech isn't a prospect anymore he has to play or be waived.
     
  22. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    I knew timashov was still unsigned, and I'm not expecting much from Svech, but I think I'd still give him a look before letting him walk for free. But even taking those two out, and not including the guys in Sweden who would join maybe mid season, we still have 16 other forwards for 12 spots.

    I want to see Larkin, Mantha, Bert, Zadina, and Fabbri get top 6 minutes. Also think Ryan and Namestnikov going to get 3rd (or 2nd) line minutes.

    Leaves Filp, Nielsen, Erne, Helm, Glendening, Gagner, Rasmussen, Hirose, Smith for 5 spots and that's if you are giving up on Timashov and Svech, which I'm not sure I'm ready to. And then mid-season add Brome, Raymond, Berggren and Veleno to that mix of guys I may want to give a little time to. Thats a lot of guys for 5 spots. Id rather use these 2 years to test out some of these borderline prospect guys and let them succeed or fail and know if they can contribute in 2-3 years v adding more middle line forwards to take up more time
     
  23. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    It definitely is a logjam but outside the top 5-6 guys, none of those forwards have a future with the team. I'd rather just play prospects too. Killorn and Johnson are not part of the future but in that scenario you don't get the draft picks/prospects/good young player you'd acquire in the trade which you hope turn into major pieces of the team when they are competitive. They need to weaponize the cap somehow...I am not sure which way is best

    I have no problem telling Filp, Nielsen, Erne, Helm, Glendening, Gagner to get bent and take a seat in the press box.

    There is major turnover in that group next year and the year after.
     
  24. The Banks

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    Yeah I want the prospects to get minutes but I have no problem taking on those two middle six forwards for the right price. Need to hoard picks and I really want a second 1st to get Wallstedt next year.
     
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  25. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    Other thing to factor is yes wings have a ton of cap now, but in next 3-4 years (length of those contracts), Bertuzzi, Fabbri, Zadina, Hronek will all need new contracts. It would really hamper us adding any one of value to help out our core when they could be competitive.

    And TB is going to be picking mid to end of 1st rd, and picks that late are often a crap shoot. I'm not saying I don't want more picks, but a 1st that will be in the 20-30 range isn't near close enough value wise to take on those contracts, especially when I think it may take a 2nd or so to convince Seattle to pick Johnson
     
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  26. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    Summary on the expansion draft implications for the Wings.

    Not surprising that there is little value here for Seattle

    Seattle Kraken expansion mock draft 5.0: Who could the Red Wings lose?

    [​IMG]
    By Max Bultman 1h ago[​IMG] 1 [​IMG]
    For the last year, at least, the Red Wings seemed all but destined to lose a defenseman to the Seattle Kraken in the NHL’s 2021 expansion draft.

    That may well still prove to be the case. But even as Detroit’s roster picture becomes clearer and clearer, the question of who the Red Wings might lose to the Kraken is murkier than ever. That’s because, after signing Vladislav Namestnikov this offseason, Detroit’s at real risk of exposing either a quality NHL forward or a promising young one. That’s in addition to the anticipated tough decisions the team must make on defense.

    Every NHL team will be having these type of internal debates for the next seven or eight months. And in fact, many teams’ decisions will be far tougher than the Red Wings’, having to expose players better than some of the ones Detroit protects.

    But now just months away, the Seattle expansion draft looms large as teams plan for their future. Let’s update the Red Wings’ outlook.

    Protected forwards (7)
    Dylan Larkin

    Anthony Mantha

    Tyler Bertuzzi

    Michael Rasmussen

    Robby Fabbri

    Evgeny Svechnikov

    Givani Smith

    Toughest exposure: Vladislav Namestnikov

    Notably exempt: Filip Zadina, Joe Veleno

    The last edition of this projection left Svechnikov unprotected. In hindsight, that was probably a mistake. The 2015 first-round pick carries significant uncertainty due to his 2018 knee injury (and lengthy subsequent recovery), but he’s still a former first-rounder with the potential to be an NHL contributor someday. If he can show he’s healthy and back on track this season, that would likely be enough to make him a high exposure risk.

    Smith, meanwhile, showed real progress last season and earned a couple of NHL call-ups. He may not have an especially high ceiling as a prospect, but the former second-rounder didn’t look out of place in his 21 NHL games last season. At 22, he also has plenty of RFA years left, with an aptitude in the hard areas of the ice.

    What’s interesting about this list, though, is that neither Smith nor Svechnikov is guaranteed to make the Red Wings’ opening-night roster. Meanwhile, Namestnikov could very well slot into Detroit’s top six. So why is he exposed in this scenario?

    Because of Namestnikov’s contract, and because of the draft’s exposure rules. Namestnikov will have just one year left on his contract come the expansion draft, and Detroit is not in a win-now position. If Svechnikov and Smith can establish themselves at the NHL level this season, their youth and RFA status may better position them to help the Red Wings when the rebuild ends. Namestnikov also helps satisfy the requirement teams expose at least two forwards who are under contract for 2021-22, and who played either at least 40 games the previous season, or at least 70 over the previous two seasons. Frans Nielsen would satisfy the other half of that requirement if he plays at least 10 games this season.

    Exposing Namestnikov and Nielsen would also allow Detroit to protect Fabbri, who will be an unrestricted free agent one year after the expansion draft but is still a young goal scorer. Jeff Blashill recently mentioned he wants to try Fabbri at center, which would only increase his value to the team if he can stick there. If Namestnikov proves more valuable this season, though, Detroit could theoretically swap those two as long as Fabbri plays at least nine games.

    The rest of the list is pretty straightforward: Larkin, Mantha and Bertuzzi were Detroit’s top forwards last year, and are all 26 or younger. Rasmussen is a former top-10 pick who still shows signs of being a future contributor, especially on special teams.

    Protected defense (3)
    Filip Hronek

    Troy Stecher

    Dennis Cholowski

    Toughest exposures: Gustav Lindstrom, Danny DeKeyser

    Notably exempt: Moritz Seider, Albert Johansson

    OK, let’s start with the exposures here. DeKeyser has been protected in previous versions of this projection, with the rationale being Detroit will need some veterans around as it brings along multiple waves of young blueliners into the league. That reality hasn’t changed.

    What did become more clear was the extent of DeKeyser’s rehab from back surgery last season. While Yzerman said earlier this summer that DeKeyser is progressing and the team expects him back by the start of the season, he wasn’t ready to say so with complete certainty. It’s still fair to project DeKeyser into the starting lineup, but it doesn’t inspire exceptional confidence in his health long term, especially since he’s already 30 and will be a free agent one year after the expansion draft.

    Detroit needs him to stay healthy for this season — both to help on the ice, and for the sake of putting together this list. The Red Wings have to expose at least one defenseman who is both under contract for 2021-22 and who played in at least 40 games the prior season (or at least 70 games between the prior two seasons). Right now, Stecher is the only plausible candidate. In order to meet the requirement without exposing Stecher, Detroit would need DeKeyser to play 40 games this season. Considering DeKeyser’s injury history, that’s no guarantee, but we’ll give it the benefit of the doubt for now.

    Also exposed in this scenario is Lindstrom, who was logging a regular shift in Detroit at the end of the 2019-20 season. Lindstrom certainly could earn a spot on the list with a big 2021 (or if Cholowski or Stecher have tough seasons), but right now Cholowski’s offense still gives him a bit more upside, and Stecher is a more proven quantity while also being relatively young.

    That’s hardly set in stone, though. The fact Stecher will have just one year remaining on his contract after this season could be enough reason to consider exposing him, especially if Cholowski and Lindstrom both show real promise in the coming months.

    But unless Detroit’s hand is forced, Stecher deserves a leg up. The 26-year-old projects to be a top-four defenseman for the Red Wings this season. He’s a reasonably well-regarded player by advanced metrics, too. That’s important to note in these discussions, considering Seattle’s analytics-heavy front office. And again, the Red Wings are going to need some veterans to stick around. Stecher has proven to be a quality player so far in his young career.

    Hronek, meanwhile, is the lock to be protected. He was Detroit’s most relied-upon defenseman last season, showing true top-four ability while playing No. 1 minutes, and is still getting better. Lock him into this list, and into the top of the lineup for the foreseeable future.

    Protected goalie (1)
    Thomas Greiss

    Toughest exposure: Kaden Fulcher

    Notably exempt: Filip Larsson, Victor Brattstrom

    This is the easiest position group to project right now, with Greiss the Red Wings’ only NHL-level goalie under contract beyond the upcoming season. Detroit will need to either extend Bernier or find another NHL-caliber goalie before the 2021-22 season, but Yzerman doesn’t need to do so before the expansion draft. In fact, it’s probably in his best interest not to.

    Meanwhile, Fulcher, who played in one NHL game in the 2018-19 season and is under contract through 2021-22, should satisfy the exposure requirement, and would likely not be picked.

    Who else is available
    In addition to Namestnikov, DeKeyser and Lindstrom, the two most notable potential exposures would be Taro Hirose and Adam Erne.

    Hirose had a strong 10-game debut in 2019 after signing as a free agent out of Michigan State. He couldn’t stick in Detroit last season, but did post 27 points in 35 AHL games. That total includes 22 assists, speaking to Hirose’s playmaking ability, especially on the power play.

    Erne is an energy player who finished second on the Red Wings in hits last season, but had only five points in 56 games in a bottom-six role. He is a former second-round pick, though, and Yzerman traded for him before last season believing he could become a top-nine NHLer. It’s possible Seattle may think the same, and Erne is still just 25.
     
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  27. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox We dug coal together
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  28. DeToxRox

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    We are going to rack up losses in that division
     
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  29. buckwild

    buckwild #BucketsGetsBuckets
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  30. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox We dug coal together
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  31. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    SHL really hates Big Mo
     
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  32. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    Traded Timashov to NYI
     
  33. DeToxRox

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    Bummer. I liked his game. He was a spare piece though.
     
  34. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    Got him off waivers so anything acquired in the trade was a free asset (if we even got anything)
     
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  35. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    Same, I'm guessing the contract talks were at the point where it wasn't worth it and Stevie just decided to ship him and out and be done with it and maybe get a pick out of it.
     
  36. The Banks

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  37. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    Internet must be slow in Alaska.
     
  38. The Banks

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    None of the above posts said what the return was.
     
  39. DeToxRox

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    A Leafs writer suggested this a year or two back. It’s ingenious.

     
  40. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    Explain this please, my brain is fried rn. Ty.
     
  41. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox We dug coal together
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    We trade Zetterberg to Tampa for Johnson plus whatever (needs to be a first imo). Tampa then puts Z on LTIR when the season starts, which gives them enough cap relief to be compliant.
     
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  42. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    I like the idea
     
  43. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    How do the years and hits compare?
     
  44. DeToxRox

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    Z and Johnson?
     
  45. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    Yeah, I didn't know how many more years Z was on the cap but it looks like this is the last year. TJ has 3 years after this.
     
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  46. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox We dug coal together
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    Yep. It’s a one year bandaid for Tampa but they need the time to figure it out
     
  47. The Banks

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    It gets Johnson off their books for 3 years. It’s a big favor from us.
     
  48. DeToxRox

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    Oh I agree but they have more work to do than just move Johnson long term.
     
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  49. The Banks

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    Johnson and a 1st & 3rd for Hank and taking TJ’s contract off their hands

    Killorn and a 2nd for taking his contract off their hands
     
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  50. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    I still say fuck em and hold out for more. Their first isn't worth much.
     
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