Detroit Red Wings: May the 4th pick be with you

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by DeToxRox, Jan 24, 2016.

  1. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Energy Vampire
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    Just learned Brattstrom will play in Finland next season. Makes sense.
     
  2. ~ taylor ~

    ~ taylor ~ Boom... head shot.
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    That guy seems skilled. I was really questioning the music choice for about a minute, then it kicked in and I loved it..
     
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  3. DeToxRox

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    Let’s do it boys

     
  4. spartanchuck

    spartanchuck Well-Known Member

  5. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    Sign me the fuck up
     
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  6. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    Seems if the NHL is formally putting this in a memo there is a very good chance that this is the way the lottery will work this year. What a break this would be for us and Ottawa?

    What a huge jump in odds that would be to get the #1 pick. Like 18.5% to 48-50%
     
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  7. DeToxRox

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    Yep. It seems like the league has already made its mind up, they are just bracing teams now.
     
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  8. DeToxRox

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    I’ve been trying to come up with player comps for the top 5-6 guys in this draft. My guess on the comp that ties closest to each players max upside:

    Lafreniere - Huberdeau

    This might not seem like a great comp but Huberdeau was on pace for a second straight 90 point season. He just took longer to develop than Lafreniere will.

    Byfield - Kopitar

    I know a lot of people say Mallon but I think a fully developed Byfield is a 70-80 point player that competes for Selkes.

    Stutzel - Giroux

    A playmaking center that anchors a team for a decade.

    Rossi - Zetterberg

    Maybe not the 50 goal scoring Z, but the guy who played dogged defense while scoring 70 points.

    Drysdale - Pietrangelo

    Smooth skating D that does everything well.

    Raymond - Panarin

    Offensive dynamo winger. Raymond has the highest offensive upside in this draft but he’s also so raw that it’s hard to think he ever gets fully weaponized.

    Of course getting to these comps is the bigger issue. I think Stutzle is a bit more likely to reach Giroux status than Byfield is Kopitar. I am fine with either guy though.
     
  9. DeToxRox

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    As an aside, I think any of the top 3 make the Opening Night roster next season. If I had my druthers, this would be their deployment:

    Lafreniere - Fil - Mantha

    Lafrienere and Mantha are play drivers, so Fil just needs to focus on playing D while the big men work.

    Bertuzzi - Byfield - Zadina

    Bert does the dirty work while Byfield and Zadina drive play. The plus here is Zadina gets sheltered in his own end by two solid defensive players.

    Glendening - Stutzle - Rasmussen

    I think Stutzle is more of a third line guy with PP1 time as a rookie. Put a defensive minded guy who can skate next to him and a big guy with some hands on the other side.
     
  10. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    DeToxRox just here me out. If we don't get first pick, we pick Stutzle and then swindle Holland for Draisaitl. And start the the GERMAN FIVE.
     
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  11. Vinegar Strokes

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    Just saw the 2002 cup replay on TV. Fucking Kwame on the bench during the celebration
     
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  12. The Banks

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  13. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

  14. The Banks

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    Whats Olie the Goalie up to?
     
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  15. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    Can't be worse than Jimmy. Strap his old corpse between the pipes and let's get it.
     
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  16. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    how do these guys compare to the top of the last few drafts?
     
  17. The Banks

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    Lafreniere is potentially generational. Best since McDavid when not considering the value of centers. Was the best player at the WJC as a 2x underager. Over 2 PPG in both the Q and the WJC. 6-1 192 at 18 so size shouldnt be an issue.

     
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  18. DeToxRox

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    Hughes probably rates higher than Lafreniere but it’s close just because it’s still possible Hughes shifts to wing. If Hughes moves to wing, I think it goes Lafreniere, Hughes, Byfield, Stutzle, Kakko.
     
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  19. DeToxRox

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    Lafrienere has the best hockey sense I’ve seen from a player in a few drafts. It’s absolutely unparalleled in this class.
     
  20. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    The only thing I wasn't sure on when comparing the top guys is Lafreniere is almost a year older than Byfield. I know in baseball people tend to hold that stuff against players fairly frequently, but if he's as good as you're saying it wouldn't seem to matter.
     
  21. The Banks

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    Byfield plays in a higher scoring league, hes only 10 month younger, is huge. The age difference would be one argument if Byfield was a little guy that hadnt fully matured but hes a grown man at 6-4 215 and has been that was for a while so its not like his body is adjusting to a growth spurt. Skilled oversized players often are able to dominate leagues of 16-20 year olds. Production doesnt always translate as well to the next level though.
     
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  22. DeToxRox

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    Byfield took a hit for struggling at the WJC this season, but Lafreniere had the same tournament as Byfield last season. The difference is, Lafreniere was so clearly the best player on the ice this year that he totally set himself a part.
     
  23. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    I think Byfield is closer to Stutzle than he is Lafreniere. More I watch Stutzle, the more I think I may take him over Byfield. I like Lafreniere over Hughes. Thought the same last year.

    If we pick 1 its Lafreniere
    If we pick 2 it is a fun debate between Stutzle and Byfield
    If we pick 3 its the one who is still left of above two
    If we pick 4 then it's up in the air. Really hope we don't fall to 4. I would guess shortlist would be Rossi, Drysdale, Raymond and Perfetti
     
  24. spartanchuck

    spartanchuck Well-Known Member

    Brad from the Winged Wheel Podcast ranked his top 30 prospects. Just to give an idea of who's at top, and maybe some guys that could slip to the first pick in the 2nd round. I also just remembered that we have 3, round 2 picks.

    Tier 1


    1. Alexis Lafreniere, LW, Rimouski (QMJHL)
    • At this point I should not need to explain why Lafreniere is #1; simply dominant at almost every aspect of the game. He sees things other players simply do not and uses his ridiculous skillset to make plays happen.
    Tier 2

    2. Quinton Byfield, C, Sudbury (OHL)
    • Byfield is so intriguing because of the rare toolkit he possesses. He is a gifted skater, puck handler, passer, and shooter, all in a 6’4” 214 pound body. I do have some concerns about his pace of play and very ordinary international performances but given that he is one of the youngest players in the draft, I am not super concerned.
    3. Tim Stutzle, LW, Adler Mannheim (DEL)
    • The DEL may not be as strong as the KHL, SHL, or Liiga, but it is still impressive how dominant Stutzle was as a 17 year old playing against men. He has high end skill, terrific vision, plays with incredible pace, and may be the best skater in this draft. Putting all that together means he is extremely dangerous off the cycle and the rush.
    4. Lucas Raymond, RW/LW, Frolunda (SHL)
    • Raymond has simply dominated nearly every international level tournament he has played in, sometimes even as a double-underager. He is a very gifted playmaker and finisher who plays with a high level of creativity. He put up respectable numbers playing in a limited role for a strong Frolunda team, but his underlying analytics were very impressive.
    Tier 3

    5. Marco Rossi, C, Ottawa (OHL)
    • Rossi may only stand 5’9” but you would not know it from watching him. He plays a solid two-way game with unreal offensive upside. He thinks the game at a special level and has a great toolkit. His skating leaves a little to be desired and I would like him to play with a touch more pace but overall there is not much to dislike about his game.
    6. Jamie Drysdale, D, Erie (OHL)
    • This draft is unique in the sense that when you rank all of the defensemen available, there is Jamie Drysdale, a chasm, and then everyone else. A perfect modern day NHL defenseman, Drysdale skates extremely well, is a fantastic passer, thinks the game well at both ends of the ice, and is remarkably consistent. I do not believe he has the offensive upside of a Makar or Hughes, or the defense acumen of a Heiskenen or Seider, but he is not far off on either end which makes him very intriguing.
    7. Alexander Holtz, RW, Djurgardens (SHL)
    • Holtz is an extremely gifted shooter (likely the best in this draft) with a very well-rounded offensive game to compliment that shot. Much like Raymond, he put up respectable but unspectacular numbers in the SHL but dominated most international tournaments he was in.
    8. Yaroslav Askarov, G, SKA St. Petersberg (VHL)
    • Let the debate begin! You can’t draft goalies too high because they are made of voodoo and pixie dust and to an extent I would agree with that, however Askarov is such a special talent that I would argue he transcends the normal mindset with goalies. He has had numerous absolutely out-of-his mind performances in international competitions, sometimes as a double under-ager. Couple that with his remarkable consistency in the Russian junior leagues and you have a possible franchise goalie in the making.
    9. Anton Lundell, C, HIFK (Liiga)
    • Lundell is going to be a fascinating case study one day. A player who produces at a remarkable rate for his age in Finland’s top league and has a consistent international track record, yet in all my viewings never ‘wows’ me with skill. That is not to say he is not gifted (he is), but to the eye test he would not hold up as a top 10 pick. He is a player who simply just gets it, he thinks the game at a high level and has enough skill to make the plays he wants to make.
    10. Cole Perfetti, C/LW, Saginaw (OHL)
    • As a 16 year old rookie in the OHL he put 37 goals and 37 assists, cementing him as a sure-fire sniper who may emerge as the top goal scorer of the 2002 crop. Then, for an encore in his 17 year old season, he once again scored 37 goals but this time he doubled his assist output (74 if you are counting). At this point I think we can safely say Perfetti is a legitimate threat in all areas of offense. I do have concerns about his pace coupled with his size but not to the point I would bet against him.
    Tier 4

    11. Jack Quinn, RW, Ottawa (OHL)
    • Jack will be another fascinating case study in a few years: he did not play AAA hockey until his minor midget season (his OHL draft year), he did not make the OHL in a his first season after being drafted, he put up unspectacular numbers in his first full OHL season, and then he exploded to the tune of 52 goals and 37 assists in his actual NHL draft year. If he were not a late 2001 birthday someone would have had an absolute steal last draft, if he were drafted at all. Quinn possesses an absolutely lethal shot that he can unleash from anywhere in the offensive zone. He is not very quick but does know how to get around the offensive zone well enough.
    12. Connor Zary, C, Kamploops (WHL)
    • Connor is the type of player I love. He is extremely talented but also extremely aggressive, he does not sit back and wait for plays to develop - he just makes it happen. I have small concerns about his skating, but the rest of his game more than makes up for it.
    13. Seth Jarvis, RW, Portland (WHL)
    • Jarvis put up cartoonish numbers in the WHL this year. He is undersized but extremely skilled, thinks the game well, and plays at a very high pace. I love his upside but do have some concerns about whether or not his skill is ‘high end’ enough to translate to the NHL.
    14. Dylan Holloway, C, Wisconsin (NCAA)
    • Dylan has the benefit of playing in the NCAA as a first time draft eligible prospect due to his late 2001 birthday, however this has created many debates amongst scouts who were underwhelmed with his good but not great stats with Wisconsin. I am still a believer though, as he is a tremendous skater and very aggressive player, although I do wish he was more effective off the cycle.
    15. Jake Sanderson, D, USNTDP (USHL)
    • We finally have our second defenseman on the board and arguably our most divisive first round prospect. Sanderson is your prototypical “jack of all trades, master of none” type defenseman. I would argue he is well above-average defensively but only slightly above-average offensively, although he did show great strides as the season progressed. It is a shame this pandemic hit when it did because I feel he would have climbed even higher had he been given more runway to continue his progression.
    16. Rodion Amirov, LW, UFA (KHL)
    • A dominant player in the Russian junior leagues but was a step behind in the KHL - overall still posted an impressive season. A very strong player off the rush with a terrific shot, a good playmaker, and okay off the cycle.
    17. Jeremie Poirier, D, Saint John (QMJHL)
    • Arguably the most dynamic offensive defenseman in this draft, it is no fluke that he scored 20 goals this season in the Q. Needs to work on his defensive game to make it in the NHL.
    18. Dawson Mercer, C/RW, Chicoutimi (QMJHL)
    • Mercer is one of the most well-rounded forwards in this draft who plays with great attention to detail. I like his aggressiveness and pace but have some questions as to how high his skill level actually is. Dawson is a fairly safe pick as he can play just about any role asked of him.
    19. John-Jason Peterka, LW, Munchen (DEL)
    • J.J. possesses great hockey sense and plays at a very high pace. His north-south skating is excellent although his lateral movement could use some work. There are some consistency issues and he tends to force plays from time to time but overall has a great grasp on the game.
    20. Lukas Reichel, LW, Berlin (DEL)
    • The third of the “big three” Germans in this draft, Reichel often gets overlooked because of the better showings at the WJC from Peterka and Stutzle. In addition to being a tremendous skater, Lukas has a very high offensive IQ and high amount of skill. There are concerns about his defensive game and nearly complete lack of physicality in his play, but with the way the NHL is trending that is not a super high concern for me.
    Tier 5

    21. Emil Andrae, D, HV71 (SuperElit)
    • Stop me if you have heard this before: small defenseman with high offensive upside and questions about his size. Well, here we are again. Emil is a very gifted passer, his neutral zone transitions are excellent, and unlike most 5’9 defenders he actually plays a physical style.
    22. Mavrik Bourque, C, Shawinigan (QMJHL)
    • Bourque is a small forward who uses a very creative offensive mind and high-end skillset to dominate the offensive zone. He led his QMJHL team in points by a wide margin despite being only 17 years old for most of the season. He isn’t the fastest player in the world, but his IQ makes up for that in spades.
    23. Kaiden Guhle, D, Prince Albert (WHL)
    • A strong two-way defenseman with NHL size and skating. He has limited abilities offensively, but I would not call it a weakness. His defensive IQ is well above-average and his tools compliment his game nicely.
    24. Hendrix Lapierre, C, Chicoutimi (QMJHL)
    • If it were not for concussion issues that ended his season in November, he would likely a consensus top 15 pick. However, concussions are no joke, so here we are. He is a remarkable playmaker with high end skill. I still have some questions about his pace translating to the next level as he does like to slow the game down to his speed, but he is such a smart player I am betting he will adapt well enough.
    25. Jan Mysak, LW, Hamilton (OHL)
    • A shoot-first winger with a terrific release, quick hands, and a better than expected two-way game. I don’t love his playmaking ability, but I wouldn’t classify it as poor either. I would like him to be a touch quicker, but he moves quickly enough to get his dangerous shot off.
    26. Noel Gunler, RW, Lulea (SHL)
    • There are no questions about Gunler’s talent but there are a lot of questions about his consistency and character. I hate talking about character issues since I have no idea what is hearsay and what isn’t, but the consistency issues are very real and a big concern. If he played every game at his top level, we are likely looking at a top 10-15 pick - but he doesn’t so Gunler slots in at 26 for me.
    27. Jacob Perreault, C, Sarnia (OHL)
    • Perreault has an incredible shot, terrific hands, but is just an okay skater and makes some questionable decisions.
    28. Ryan O’Rourke, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
    • A well-rounded defender who was named captain of the Soo Greyhounds at just 17 years old. He has a terrific mind for all aspects of the game but does not possess the high-end toolkit like the other defenders already listed.
    29. Zion Nybeck, RW/LW, HV71 (SuperElit)
    • Nybeck absolutely dominated the Swedish Junior leagues this season with his incredible skillset and high-end offensive creativity. He plays with tenacity and pace but there is no way around the fact he is only 5’8”. I honestly feel guilty ranking him this low for how skilled he is.
    30. William Wallinder, D, Modo (SuperElit)
    • A 6’4 defenseman who skates well, plays with pace, and has a good offensive IQ. He is still raw and a lot of his tools need some refining, but if all works out, he could be a good top 4 defenseman in the NHL.
    31. Tyson Foerster, C/RW, Barrie (OHL)
    • Foerster’s biggest strength is his absolutely lethal shot - he can score from almost anywhere in the offensive zone. He is a better playmaker than he gets credit for as well. I don’t love the pace at which he plays, and his skating could definitely use some work which makes me wonder how effective he could be at 5v5. However, I do believe he could be a powerplay specialist who plays limited 5v5 minutes at worst.
     
  25. The Banks

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    1. Lafreniere
    2. Stutzle
    3. Byfield
    4. Fuck
     
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  26. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    I fully expect to get crucified for even suggesting this, but if we get 4th pick I may really look at Askarov. 4 is too high probably to pull the trigger, but I think he is the best goalie prospect in a while.
     
  27. Vinegar Strokes

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    What’s the bust rate on goalies taken in first round? Seems a little too risky.
     
  28. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    In the past 10 years, only 7 have been drafted in 1st round and none in top 10. Vasilevsky was a for sure hit and 2-3 more are still up in the air, but 3 for sure are not going to pan out to expectations. It would be a gamble and I dont think I could actually pull the trigger that high, but I would think about it. Askarov grades higher as a prospect than any goalie in the last decade by most accounts.
     
  29. spartanchuck

    spartanchuck Well-Known Member

  30. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    What current prospects are we looking at making the team next year? Seems like next year will be pretty important for Cholowski and Rasmussen, among others. Maybe Veleno?
     
  31. DeToxRox

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    Seider is probably the closest thing to a lock we have.

    Rasmussen could make it but I think the canceled season impacts him quite a bit. He probably starts as the top C in GR. Veleno will be the #2 C in GR. I am not sure about Cholowski. I think he starts in GR personally though.

    After Seider, Smith is the next best bet to make the team probably.
     
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  32. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    That kind of makes me sad that those guys still might not be ready yet. Just hope we don't do more Filpula type deals this summer.
     
  33. DeToxRox

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    I think we will bring back Gagner and then look for another D to sign for a couple of years.
     
  34. spartanchuck

    spartanchuck Well-Known Member

    I think Svech has to come up. Out of options?
     
  35. DeToxRox

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    Yeah but I don’t really consider him a prospect any longer
     
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  36. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    Not sure we have room for Gagner unless we can move or buyout Filpulla or Nielsen.

    Next year I think we are rocking these forwards, and this includes me dumping Abby to the AHL and doesnt even include our first round pick
    Bertuzzi, Larkin, Mantha
    Fabbri, Fil, Zadina
    Svech, Nielsen, Rasmussen
    Helm, Glendenning, Timashov
    Wouldn't shock me if they brought back Erne for a 13th forward.

    I sure hope we would give Svech a shot over bringing Gagner back. But if they could dump Filp, Nielsen, or get something for Helm it would change my opinion. Also think if we get Lafreniere or Stutzle, they would be here year 1 too. Byfield possibly too. We are going to have too many (mostly not good) forwards under contract.
     
  37. The Banks

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    In addition to Seider and Lafreniere we are a top 15 goalie, a 2C and a top pairing D from being a decent playoff contender. Ideally Veleno turns into an elite 3C and we find a 2C somewhere else.

    (two years from now and hypothetically getting rid of the trash)

    Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha
    Lafreniere - 2C - Zadina
    Fabbri - Veleno - Rasmussen
    Smith - Berggren - Grewe

    Top Pairing D - Seider
    Dekeyser - Hronek
    Nemeth - Lindstrom

    1G
    Larsson
     
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  38. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    How much dead weight can we cut this offseason?

    Already dumping Ericsson, Daley, Howard, and to lesser extent Gagner, Erne, Ehn, Perlini, Goloubef and Timashov. Although I bet 2 of Gagner/Erne/Ehn/Timashov are resigned.

    Guys who we may be able to move but still under contract would probably be limited to Glendening and Helm, but we would probably need to eat some of Helm contract. Both still provide a role so I am not sure we move them in offseason.

    What do we do with with Filp, Nielsen and Abby is the real question. I think Abby gets waived / sent down to Grand Rapids. Financially doesn't make sense to buy him out this offseason. Nielsen and Filp probably get another year would be my guess but get some more healthy scratch games
     
  39. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    If they use the old lottery odds this draft, it is huge news for Wings

    Current odds of #1 pick 18.5%
    Odds of #1 pick under proposal 48.2%

    Current odds of drafting top THREE 49.4%
    Odds of a top TWO pick under proposal 100%

    Our odds currently of a top 3 pick become our odds of #1 pick and guaranteed no worse than 2.

    I'm still pessimistic and don't think we win lottery, but it's better than 4th
     
  40. The Banks

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  41. Tony Wonder

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  42. DeToxRox

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  43. MG2

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    Can't wait to pick fourth in a 3-player draft.

    I know there are good players after 3, but sure seems like 3 is a cutoff in terms of the scouting consensus based on what you've written.
     
  44. DeToxRox

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    Honestly Rossi and Raymond are not bad consolation prizes but yes it’s a bummer when you consider the week of hope we had.
     
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  45. MG2

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    After seeing your lists I went down some YouTube rabbit holes and fell for your boy Stutzle. He seems like fun and I'd be perfectly content picking 3rd and taking whoever is left after the top 2.
     
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  46. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    Fuck them, just give it to us.
     
  47. Manny

    Manny I love lamp.

    With that said I'm down for starting the German Five
     
  48. Vinegar Strokes

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  49. DeToxRox

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  50. buckwild

    buckwild #BucketsGetsBuckets
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    Did they do away with that idea that gave the Wings a top two pick for apparently no reason?