Probably not. There are other wingers on expiring deals that are more desirable, like a Wayne Simmonds. I think Gus fetches the most value at the TDL when teams lose out on other targets.
Larkin is so good. It would be nice if we could surround him with some actual talent. I am coming around in offering Duchene a big deal this summer (if Karlsson doesn’t hit the market). Mantha is showing he can drive a line, but he needs help. If you can put together a top nine of: Zadina - Larkin - Bert Mantha - Duchene - AA Ras - Nielsen - Helm Now you’re moving in the right direction.
Also, we have two more games until the All Star break and our bye hit. The games come fast and furious in February.
Looked like we were going to get 2 points too. Chicago won today as well. Only 1 point out of worst pick now. Hopefully we dump off some assets within the next couple weeks and suck more.
Also LA has a game in hand on us. Absolutely vital that we aren’t close down the stretch. Can’t let that moron in the front office think we have a chance at the 7th/8th seed. Currently 15 points out of the playoffs and #8 Pittsburgh has 2 games in hand.
Hard to speculate on AA. If he plans to stay here long term then keep him, if they think he’s gonna bounce or demand a trade then be proactive while his value is high with the season he is having. I don’t want to lose Nyquist but I understand the value.
AA is on pace for 30 goals. I don’t see the Wings trading him unless we can bring someone like Dougie Hamilton back.
It would probably have to be AA plus Svech and a future first with protection. I could even see a second being needed.
I have a bad feeling we are going to re-sign Jensen. We need to rid ourselves of this logjam, not add to it.
I want Hughes or Kakko but we need to stay within the top 5, so finishing no lower than second would be ideal.
Meant to post this last week. The Athletic is excellent for Wings coverage - As we know Larkin is really fucking good - It would be a huge to land one of the top 2 picks (Hughes, Kakko) in next year's draft. For as much talk about landing a first pairing defender, I think you can argue a 2nd line center or stud winger is more important. - I have no idea how they pull it off but they need to sign a top end FA this off season or next (Duchene, Stone, Karlsson, Krug, Trouba) Spoiler: Stanley Cup Champs in 2022-23 How the Red Wings can build a contender during Dylan Larkin’s prime Max Bultman Jan 18, 2019 99 It really started in December. Even as the Red Wings slumped through New Year’s, falling precipitously in the standings, Dylan Larkin just kept producing. He ran a point streak out to 14 games, and then, even when he lost it, posted 6 more in his next six. In a year that has never been expected to go anywhere for the team, Larkin has continued becoming a budding star for the franchise. Around him, the team’s supporting cast has made strides, too. Andreas Athanasiou is in the midst of his breakout campaign, already just one goal shy of his career high. Rookie defensemen Dennis Cholowski and Filip Hronek have made their debuts and flashed glimpses of what they may become. Down the farm system, new faces grow ever closer. None of it has amounted to much this season, of course. The Red Wings, for any moments of promise, are what they are — a bottom-five team, albeit perhaps minus the typical misery. But off in the future, something better beckons … right? That’s the premise for this story — inspired by Larkin’s emergence, and tempered by a simple, daunting fact: The presumable centerpiece of the Red Wings’ rebuild is entering his prime right now. And the Red Wings, for all the flashes of potential, are not yet in position to take advantage of it. When Jonathan Toews was at the exact same point in his career — age 22, his fourth NHL season — for the Chicago Blackhawks, he posted numbers that are going to sound eerily familiar to Detroit fans. He scored 32 goals and 76 points in 2010-11. Larkin is on pace for 31 and 77. But Chicago was coming off a Stanley Cup the previous season and would win another one in 2013. The Red Wings are … well, here. A direct comparison fails here because the differences between the states of the two franchises at these points are vast. Chicago was positioned to win those Stanley Cups with two superstar forwards (Toews and Patrick Kane) just entering their prime, a No. 1 defenseman (Duncan Keith) at the peak of his, and the right veteran talent in Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp to balance everything out and maximize their Cup window. Detroit is still in the midst of a downslope, before it ultimately goes on the rise again. But that is sort of the point here. As Larkin, Athanasiou, Anthony Mantha and the rest of the Red Wings’ young core comes of age, the prevailing thought is that the next wave — Cholowski, Hronek, Filip Zadina, Joe Veleno and this year’s first-round pick — will arrive, enter their prime and catapult the franchise toward its past heights. And that may well happen. But with experience comes more money, and every star a team acquires eventually has to get paid. In a salary-cap world, that means windows can’t just be counted on to appear. Dylan Larkin has taken a step forward this year as he enters his prime. (Dave Reginek / NHLI via Getty Images) With Larkin on what looks like a promising five-year, $6.1 million AAV deal, and some other entry-level contracts either in their early phases or about to begin, there is a pretty clear incentive for the Red Wings to maximize this phase of Larkin’s career — to whatever degree that’s possible. We wanted to know: Is it? So here’s what we did. We looked at the most attractive commodity in the modern NHL — superstars on entry-level contracts — and tried to figure out if the Red Wings could find a window in their current core’s prime and their next wave’s entry-level window in which to take advantage. The best answer was the 2021-22 season, when Larkin will be 25, Athanasiou and Mantha will be 27, Cholowski and Hronek will be 23 and Zadina, Veleno and the Red Wings’ 2019 first-round pick should all still be on ELCs while also entering their prime around ages 21 to 22. We then asked our Dom Luszczyszyn to apply the same model he used to project the league’s top 50 players in 2021-22, utilizing game score and aging curves — explained in depth here — to see whether the Red Wings were shaping up to build a contender for that season. He graciously agreed to do so. “Contender” is a broad word, but in this case Dom picked eight of the best teams in the league this year, ones who could reasonably be predicted to make a conference final (Tampa Bay, Toronto, Calgary, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Winnipeg, San Jose and Washington) and averaged out what kinds of game scores the typical contender had at each position and role. Then, he stacked up the Red Wings’ projections next to that prototypical contender to see what Detroit already has, and where the Red Wings fall short. Finally, I dove in to see whether, and how, they might be able to get up to standard with a few big moves. These are complex questions, and the answers aren’t necessarily conclusive. But they are fascinating. Before the chart, a few important points to note (in case you didn’t read Dom’s explainer): The game score projection system is not perfect, because no stat is. No one is claiming to know the future here. The model is liable to occasionally underrate certain types of players (defensive defensemen and playmakers) and overrate some others (point-scoring blueliners, shooters). For prospects, who don’t have NHL data to curve off of, we used Emmanuel Perry’s NHLe factors to get a baseline. It’s certainly fine to disagree with some of the model’s conclusions (at first glance I think it’s too high on Hronek and a bit low on Zadina and Cholowski), but remember that if you’re going to trust the computer on the positive predictions, you can’t simply assume all the “lows” will eventually be proven wrong to create a perfect scenario for the Red Wings. The players in the lineup are the pieces that best fit the breakdown of an average contender, so you’ll see some roster holes (in red letters) where the Red Wings will need to find an answer. You’ll also likely notice that a couple players (Justin Abdelkader and Danny DeKeyser) aren’t in this graphic, despite being under contract. More on that in a moment. This roster assumes the Red Wings do not re-sign Gustav Nyquist, though there could be more clarity on that front after the post-All-Star bye week, when the sides are expected to touch base. There are no goalies listed, though goalie is a major area of question for the Red Wings at this point. So, with all that said, here’s what the projections came out to: First, the key takeaways: By this point, Dom’s model has Larkin as a borderline elite forward at 1C, exactly what a contender needs to start off. The roster holes around Larkin, however, are in very significant places. Based on these projections, the Red Wings would need to be looking for two first-line-caliber wingers and a first-line-caliber center (since contenders typically have a 1C on the second line too), plus a top-pair defenseman and another defenseman to play in their top four. That’s a ton of top talent. The bottom of the Red Wings’ lineup, on the other hand, is shaping up to be even better than the average contender’s. That’s probably because those players would actually be slotting up a spot for a more realistic Detroit team. Veleno-Athanasiou-Bertuzzi on line 3 all have second line game score values in standard terms, which is still a good sign for the Red Wings developmentally, but only helps so much in this exercise. Similarly, considering Michael Rasmussen’s power-play and net-front contributions, I doubt he plays all the way down on line 4 for a real Detroit team. The blueline configuration is not at all what I expected. Dom’s model loves Hronek, who is definitely a point-scoring defenseman, and actually rates him as a first-pair defenseman for a contending team. I’m skeptical of that, and think he may ultimately fit better on the second pair. (Though, either way, this probably reinforces that Hronek should get back in the lineup soon.) Conversely, the model isn’t as high on Cholowski, nor did it put the notably absent DeKeyser into the lineup. At about 0.24 average game score, DeKeyser would still be a solid third-pair guy by this time. Nick Jensen did make the cut, though, which means the Red Wings would need to re-sign him. Regardless, the most important point is this: There’s no other obvious answer at first-pair defense, and that’s a pretty important hole to fill. So, how can the Red Wings close these gaps and reach true contender status? First of all, some internal names would need to make a leap. That should go without saying for a rebuilding team, but standard prospect development probably won’t be enough on its own. For example, Gustav Lindstrom (6 points in 32 SHL games this year, but more of an all-around defenseman) could be an option for the blueline. But that 0.54 mark needed at second-pair right D is still a fairly high bar, and he would need to take it up a notch to get there. It’s also important to emphasize that not all of the team’s defense prospects are going to pan out. If Lindstrom makes it, maybe Jared McIsaac doesn’t. A more plausible internal answer would be at forward. If Zadina outperforms this model’s projection and becomes the player he is expected to, that would fill one of the openings at top-line wing (although that still leaves a need on line 2). In addition, Detroit should have another high draft pick this June, and the player it takes would still be on his entry-level contract in the 2021-22 season no matter what. If that pick “hits,” that’s another potential solution at center or wing in the top six. Let’s say it’s a center, for simplicity’s sake, since there are a handful of well-regarded ones near the top of the draft. It’s important to note that the Red Wings can’t bank on any of this, though. In fact, even if Zadina does outperform the model and the 2019 first-rounder is a hit, that still probably leaves a vacancy at the other first-line wing — a spot at which the average contender has a borderline elite player. But since we’re trying to show what Detroit would have to do to build a contender by this window, we’ll press on in search of answers elsewhere. And without another obvious internal solution, free agency or a trade become the main options to look toward. (A 2020 pick isn’t factored in here because it’s too tough to know what developmental timeline that prospect will be on, or where that pick will fall.) That means we better map out a salary-cap situation for this hypothetical group, to see what the Red Wings can afford to spend. The salary-cap situation Without knowing exactly what the cap will be by 2021-22, that’s a pretty tall task. Next year, the cap is projected to go up to $83 million, an increase of $3.5 million from this year’s figure. But if we use a conservative $2 million annual increase, less than the mean change over the last five years, that would put the cap around $87 million by 2021-22. On the books for Detroit already are Larkin’s $6.1 million deal, Nielsen at $5.25 million, Justin Abdelkader at $4.25 million and DeKeyser at $5 million. That’s $20.6 million — about 24 percent of the hypothetical cap space. Those Abdelkader or Frans Nielsen contracts aren’t what you want by this point, but you may be able to survive them for a year with enough entry-level deals in the fold. (Abdelkader’s actually extends through 2023, but Nielsen’s is up in 2022.) In this case, the entry-level contracts would most likely be Zadina (assuming he doesn’t play 10 games in 2018-19 so his contract slides), Veleno and the first-round pick this June, all three at $925,000 each. As a bonus, McIsaac would also be on his at just $792,500. The flip side of that, however, is that Cholowski, Hronek, Athanasiou, Mantha, Rasmussen, Bertuzzi, Svechnikov and Jensen are all going to need new deals by this point. And that’s where things get tricky. Jensen, if he were to be re-signed, would likely cost in the $2 million-$3 million range for three or four years. Let’s say $2.5 million x 3 to make it easy. That’s the simple one, because that negotiation would be this upcoming offseason. The others are tougher, needing RFA negotiations down the road. With Jensen’s hypothetical deal factored in, Detroit would have about $60 million left to get that all done, add two goalies and then find its missing game changers, all while preserving some space to re-sign young players when the time comes. (Some of this depends on when Veleno, McIsaac and the 2019 pick officially start their entry-level deals, though, so maybe there’s some flexibility on the timing.) I won’t go through and guess a cap number for every single one of the RFAs, but I will say this: In order for the Red Wings to be a contender, these players who are already in the system need to be legitimately good. And since good players will get paid, that means you can’t count on cheap deals for all these guys to make life easy on the front office. The Red Wings’ young core will be due new contracts over the next few summers. (James Carey Lauder / USA TODAY Sports) Svechnikov will be coming off of an injury and trying to make the NHL roster next season, but in order for him to meet the projection Dom’s model foresees (he profiles as a well-above-average third-liner in 2021, according to the model), he needs to be pretty successful in doing so. Maybe he could have a good bounce-back year and then take a two-year “prove-it” deal like Bertuzzi did this past offseason, but even then he’d be due a raise in 2022, a year in which some key entry-level deals could expire. By then, if he’s truly producing at that level way down the lineup, he may be more of a luxury to try and keep around. And if Mantha and Athanasiou continue to progress as top-six scoring wingers, which the model says they should, they’ll need to be paid accordingly. It’s too hard to say concretely this far out, but if the two can up their production, Detroit could be looking in the neighborhood of $12 million (combined) to lock up the two of them, based on the rising salary cap and because they’d be buying some UFA years instead of RFA. When Tomas Tatar was in a similar situation, in his last RFA year in 2017, he reportedly asked for $6 million to sign long-term, then signed for four years, at $5.3 million annually — and that was coming off two seasons with 45 and 46 points, respectively. To get Detroit where it wants to go, it probably means Mantha and Athanasiou surpassing that, production- (and thus salary-) wise. Again, I’m not going to do this with every player, mainly because there are so many variables, but these examples serve to show how much Detroit still has to manage cap-wise to carve out a window, even after a rebuild. It also underscores why the entry-level deals matter so much. We haven’t even gotten to Bertuzzi, Rasmussen, Cholowski, Hronek, two mystery goalies, any outside additions and the space needed for Zadina, Veleno, the 2019 first-round pick and McIsaac’s next deals in the coming years. So, much like the Maple Leafs this year, the Red Wings will want a buffer. But about those impact players from elsewhere… Possible acquisitions to help fit the contender mold Based on the model’s projections, Athanasiou could try to stretch things and slot into Zadina’s current spot on line 2 if the 2018 first-rounder plays well enough to move up a line. At that point, finding a third-line winger isn’t such a big deal. Swedish prospect Jonatan Berggren may be ready by then, and he could be another entry-level option. You could also try to promote Svechnikov or Rasmussen to line 3, then get Abdelkader back in the lineup. Or a penalty killer like Jacob De La Rose or Christoffer Ehn. But the big missing cogs, after all the “ifs” and “coulds,” are a top-line wing, and a couple top-pair (or at the very least top-four) defensemen. So where can the Red Wings turn? Well, option 1 should be a player who is bound to be among the most coveted free agents in the league this offseason — if he even makes it that far. That, of course, would be Mark Stone, the Senators’ big, two-way forward whose impact on the game can be simply absurd. On the left is Mark Stone's isolated impact on the shots Ottawa allows. On the right is the isolated impact of his four teammates. The gap in defensive talent between him and the rest of his team is astonishing. pic.twitter.com/aQH5m1oJ5i 29 5:21 PM - Jan 3, 2019 Twitter Ads info and privacy This analysis piece from Tyler Dellow last month, dissecting the league’s most effective first lines, highlights Stone’s impact in even more depth. As Dellow wrote then: “You really can’t say enough about Ottawa with Mark Stone on the ice. When he’s not on the ice, Ottawa’s performance has a similar shape to that of the 2014-15 Buffalo Sabres who, of course, were tanking.” So, yeah, Stone is going to be in demand if Ottawa is crazy enough to let him out of the city. And he very well could stay, which would render this moot. But if Stone is available, he’d be a perfect signing for these reasons: 1) His defensive impact is perfect for a team that will be breaking in plenty of young players, who tend to be more deficient in their own end. 2) He still produces at a high rate offensively (currently above a point per game for the second consecutive season), allowing him to play with any potential linemates the Red Wings want. 3) He’d still be just 29 during the 2021-22 season and 30 the year after. Those are ages you’d be perfectly comfortable trusting his skill while also knowing he brings a crucial veteran presence. Stone certainly could fill that top line right wing slot, but if Detroit wanted to spread his defense around to help cover other flaws, it could move Mantha up to line 1, then put Stone with, say, a young skilled center from this year’s draft and Athanasiou on line 2. All of the sudden, the second line would be quite formidable, although line 1 would sacrifice a bit and really be banking on Zadina’s ascension. Stone would be costly (he reportedly asked for $9 million before arbitration last offseason), but he’d also be a huge signing for Detroit if the team wanted to pivot toward contention. The forward lines might look something like this: Zadina – Larkin – Mantha Athanasiou – first-rounder – Stone Rasmussen – Veleno – Bertuzzi Berggren – Nielsen – Svechnikov (Abdelkader) Even then, however, the Red Wings would still need two more top defensemen to get them where they want to be. This is one reason Detroit probably needn’t bother trading players for picks much later than a third-rounder at this trade deadline. They already have plenty of prospects who can play on the bottom four. This model doesn’t project room for Lindstrom, DeKeyser, Vili Saarijarvi or Joe Hicketts to join the existing quartet in a contender’s NHL starting lineup, unless one makes a leap into the top four, or unless McIsaac does and opens a spot on the third pair. That’s kind of crazy to realize. Three of those players are among the Red Wings’ top 10 prospects, but room might be limited to fit them all in the lineup. It’s worth noting that DeKeyser is probably exactly the kind of veteran player you want in your lineup when you’re contending, and Lindstrom is well regarded, so maybe the Red Wings would figure out how to make room for them no matter what. But this is about what the model predicts, and what being a contender demands. It’s not fair to expect an elite defenseman to just emerge from Detroit’s farm system. So, considering the impending cap crunch coming Detroit’s way (if its prospects succeed, at least), you can understand why a trade might make sense. If the Red Wings can’t afford to pay both Mantha and Athanasiou a premium, maybe they’d be better off moving one of the scoring wings for defensive help. How much better does someone like Jacob Trouba make this group? The homegrown Detroiter could at least fill the second-pair defense spot next to Cholowski easily. Or what about someone from the stacked Carolina system in a trade? Either way, if the Red Wings need to save cap space to extend their high draft picks, UFA options might be limited. That’s a jam for which there’s no obvious solution. Then, in goal, even more questions abound. The Red Wings have $8.3 million allocated to netminders as of this season, and unless Filip Larsson, Keith Petruzzelli or Joren van Pottelberghe arrive early and immediately ready to start, it’s a bit hard to see Detroit spending much less money than that on the position if it’s a real contender down the line. Conclusion Can we all take a deep breath together for a minute? That was a ton to take in. After thinking about this projection for a few days, here’s where I land on the core questions: Based on this, it’s hard to say how well-positioned Detroit is to cash in on Larkin’s peak prime years. It probably depends on how high the standard is, but right now it’d be tough to look at those question marks in key places and think “Stanley Cup.” But even with those holes, there is clear promise in the near future, too. A playoff push may not be far off, and that should be achievable through largely internal options. By the time Zadina, Veleno, Cholowski and the rest hit their primes, Larkin could still be maintaining a very high level in his. If most of those young prospects pan out (which is not a small if) things could get interesting. The question is, will Detroit be able to get enough cheap, high-impact talent to supplement those players further down the line, when their salaries match their ability. By sliding Zadina’s ELC this year, the Red Wings can protect him from the expansion draft and help prop this 2021-22 window open. But he, alone, is not enough to put the Red Wings in position to go for it all. And it could end up just making his second contract larger. This hypothetical window doesn’t just close if Detroit can’t put it together by 2022. Depending on how the entry-level deals line up, 2022-23 could be just as interesting, and the era that ensues should be highly competitive no matter what if the prospects pan out. But when high draft picks start to outgrow their ELCs, things can also get complicated quickly. Larkin’s current contract, inked through 2023, should encapsulate most of his peak prime, and it does so at what should be a good value as the cap continues to rise. That is going to give Detroit good options for the next four years. But while that represents a significant opportunity, this exercise shows just how many questions the Red Wings still have to answer before they can take full advantage.
The Athletic had an interesting article that touched on sitting Cholo for Hronek, it came down to some of their internal analysis showing a downward trend for Cholo over the past few weeks and they wanted to give him a game off to slow down and watch the game from a different angle. I actually think Blash has been doing a good job with the younger guys. I personally don't hate keeping Jensen...I'd prefer it actually. I think at this point there needs to be patience when it comes to the logjam being fixed, we just need some contracts off the books and the major ones will be in the next year or so. Witkowski and Kronwall are gone after this season, Ericcson, Daley, and Green after next. That's 5 open spots - two for Hronek and Cholo, one for Jensen, let's say one for a FA, that still leaves us with one open spot. I think it's better to have the vets around to show them how to play and have a capable body if shit goes sideways. I'm all for letting the kids play, but I am buying more and more into needing some vets around to help shoulder the leadership weight and help Larkin out. In that vein, I think it would be incredibly shortsighted to move AA, from everything that I've read the bad blood between him and the coaches/front-office has been alleviated - he challenged them to play him more and he held up his end of the bargain. Same goes for Mantha, we have a shot at a top center or winger this year, the latter would be great for the team and him. For a mid-first round pick, he is right on track in terms of production. His development has been slow, but he's looking to be a 20+ goal scorer, that's good in my book for a 2nd line winger.
Now...in that case...I think you part with one of the two aforementioned forwards.I might be crazy, but I think one would get you 80% of the way there. With that being said, I know fuck and all about the advanced stats of the NHL so I could be way off. Now that's something I'd like to see in The Athletic, one of the Detroit writers breaking down that trade and others like it. Do you guys think Carolina, Winnipeg or even a team like Nashville would part with an NHL-ready or near-ready d-man? Maybe not Winnipeg, but I could see Carolina and Nashville doing it.
Went from last to sixth to last with the win last night. Some of these teams with games in hand will hopefully get some wins during our bye.
I lean towards no. My hope is he is gone, but I am not sure how lucky we will be. If Holland is calling the shots, I can see him sticking around.
He's fine for the tank process but going forward soon we need to find someone else. It's a shame really, I had high hopes for him after his Western and GR stops.
Realistically, who replaces him? Quenneville seems to be the popular choice, but why would he come here? Further, I've heard that he is not the sort of coach that you want for a young developing team. I'm not super familiar with coaches out of the NHL, but going the college route has been hit-or-miss so far and I can't think of any other coach that would be available, outside of maybe Mcllelan, who I would want. Plus, he seems like a similar coach to Blash. I wouldn't mind having him back.
The top 2 is separating themselves in this draft. Would be mighty nice to win one of those spots in the lotto. Also, not sure why the player number ranks all show as 1 but I ain't fixing it. Spoiler: Corey Pronman draft rankings The 2019 NHL Draft class is one I’m excited about. The top of the draft is littered with players I think have potential to be impact forwards, with a ton of strength down the middle. It’s not the best class for defensemen, but top forward prospects tend to have less risk in their projection and thus I could see a lot of value coming out of this top 15. Kaapo Kakko did not displace Jack Hughes at the top of my rankings, but he closed the gap. And for me it’s a near 1A/1B situation. I think both players project to be true stars in the NHL. The talent is highly concentrated this season between Western Canada and the USNTDP; nine of my top 12 prospects come from those two regions. These rankings are based on thousands of hours of research, spanning many trips to rinks across the hockey world, watching a lot of video, analyzing players’ production, and discussions with scouts, coaches and executives. While I seek input from many sources, these are solely my opinions and will deviate from NHL sources, even significantly in some instances. I split players into tiers that will be seen throughout this feature. Here is how you should interpret them: Special prospect: Projects to be one of the very best players in the league at their position. Elite prospect: Projects to be top 10-15 percent of the league at their position. High-end prospect: Projects as a legit top-line forward who can play on your PP1/top pairing defenseman. Very good prospect: Projects as a top-six forward/top-four defenseman/starting goaltender. This list is a preview of what will come once the snow melts, where we will post a longer and more detailed preview of the 2019 NHL Draft. Special Prospect Jack Hughes, C, USNTDP-USHL May 14, 2001 | 5-foot-10 | 168 pounds Hughes is one of the best USA prospects to be a first-year draft-eligible prospect. He’s an elite skater who is so tough when he gets going with speed. He’s got a high skill level and great vision with the puck and, at a standstill, he can make highly skilled plays QBing a power play. But what makes Hughes stand out from your typical playmaker is how he makes those plays at a million miles an hour. He’ll put pucks through legs while skating full speed and hit a target across the ice. His speed is his biggest strength and at times his biggest weakness. He has a small, slight frame and, unlike your typical elite playmakers – like Johnny Gaudreau and Pavel Datsyuk, who made a living not getting hit – Hughes gets hit a little more than you’d like. Kaapo Kakko, LW, TPS-Liiga Feb. 13, 2001 | 6-foot-2 | 190 pounds Kakko has had a fantastic season in Finland, playing significant minutes in the country’s top league. He’s got the high-end hands to make plays through defenders and the cute dangles that will make highlight reels. He’s incredibly smart offensively. Kakko can make the real tough passes and makes a lot of great decisions, but his creativity is what impressed me most. He’ll try stuff that most 17-year-olds can’t execute in junior, never mind versus pros. Kakko has good size, and he’s not afraid to lean on guys. His speed is just average for me. He’s not slow, but his skating is not the selling point of his game. Elite NHL Prospect Dylan Cozens, C, Lethbridge-WHL Feb. 9, 2001 | 6-foot-3 | 185 pounds Cozens is a well-rounded pivot who for the past two seasons in the WHL has consistently impressed. Cozens measures in at 6-foot-3 and is one of the best skaters in the draft. That combination alone makes him a handful to deal with when he comes barreling through the neutral zone. Cozens, though, has a high level of skill, intelligence and compete in his game; and most importantly, he shows all those attributes while playing fast. He’s not a dynamic playmaker, but he’ll have the odd play that will hit that level. Cozens can be deployed in any situation and competes hard every shift. Kirby Dach, C, Saskatoon-WHL Jan. 21, 2001 | 6-foot-4 | 198 pounds Dach is a right-shot centerman who measures in at around 6-foot-4 with a lot of skill and offensive IQ. He makes high-end plays to his teammates and through defenders with consistency. His vision particularly stands out. Dach can play all situations. He’s not the most physical big man, but he’s reliable defensively. He has good speed. His feet don’t match his skill and his first step could be a bit better, but overall he’s the total package. He hit a cold spell in the middle of this season that’s mildly concerning but not enough given how good a player he is. Vasili Podkolzin, RW, SKA-MHL June 24, 2001 | 6-foot-1 | 190 pounds Podkolzin has been great everywhere he’s played this season. He’s super talented but also an incredible competitor. Podkolzin is very skilled and can make the flashy plays to deke defenders, but he rarely does that off a standstill or along the walls. Instead, Podkolzin is typically full speed ahead to the net. He’s also a very good playmaker and finisher who can take advantage of space if defenders give it to him by making a pass or sniping from a distance. He’s a fine/good skater but hustles so hard that he looks like he’s always going fast. Trevor Zegras, C, USNTDP-USHL May 20, 2001 | six-foot | 168 pounds Zegras has been fantastic all season for the USNTDP. He can run a power play with the best of them due to his vision. He has the high-end skill to feather pucks into the right spots. Zegras’ game isn’t static, though. He has good speed and very quick hands to evade checks. He’s not the biggest or bulkiest pivot, who has at times played wing this season, but he’s gotten steadily better in the physical parts of the game. Zegras isn’t a guy who you pick to run over guys, though; you’re drafting him to make plays and run your power play. High-End NHL Prospect Matthew Boldy, LW, USNTDP-USHL April 5, 2001 | 6-foot-2 | 187 pounds Boldy might not immediately stand out to you as this blazing speedster or a guy who is going to go end-to-end with a highlight reel rush, but his combination of puck skills and hockey IQ are among the best in the draft. I wouldn’t call him a natural playmaker; he prefers to play below the dots and around the net than to QB a power play. While he’s a great passer, Boldy has a quality shot and has often been used as a trigger guy from the slot for the USNTDP. His main weakness over the years has been his skating. I think it’s improved to an average level, but he’s not a powerful skater. Bowen Byram, D, Vancouver-WHL June 13, 2001 | 6-foot-1 | 192 pounds Byram is my top ranked defenseman in this draft class. He’s been a minutes-eating leader for the Giants, and he’s second on the team in goals and points. He’s got all the tools you want in a top pairing defenseman. Byram is a high-end skater with the ability to lead a rush and close gaps. He’s got fantastic puck skills and, while he makes great offensive plays in games, his individual creativity has another level than he’s showed. Byram’s best trait is his sense. He’s a great puck-mover who commands shifts with his vision and awareness and has made some of the best passes I’ve seen this season. Alex Newhook, C, Victoria-BCHL Jan. 28, 2001 | 5-foot-10 | 190 pounds Newhook has been fantastic in the BCHL for the past two seasons. He’s not the biggest forward at 5-foot-10 but has a lot of offensive tools. His skating, hands and vision all get plus grades. He can push the pace with his speed, while also being able to pull up and make a play at pace. Newhook isn’t just a skill guy; he competes well, which, combined with his great speed, allows him to always be around the puck. I don’t know if he’ll be a true defensive center in the NHL, but I like that he battles and doesn’t get pushed around without taking penalties. Alex Turcotte, C, USNTDP-USHL Feb. 26, 2011 | 5-foot-11 | 194 pounds Turcotte’s first half of the season has been rough with injury forcing him to miss time. When healthy, he was very impressive. He’s a well-rounded prospect. Last season, I loved how hard he played and how he attacked with speed. He still has the great skating and does compete well, but he isn’t driving recklessly as much, instead using his high-end skill and vision to create offense, and showing how versatile a threat he can be. Turcotte is the kind of forward who can go around or through defensemen. Philip Broberg, D, AIK-Allsvenskan June 25, 2001 | 6-foot-3 | 203 pounds Broberg is a 6-foot-3 defenseman who is an elite skater which makes him scary to defend when he’s barreling up the ice with speed. There are some rushes he’s made this season where the opposition didn’t even have a chance to get a stick on the puck. Broberg is divisive due to his offensive upside. He’s not a flashy puck handler and his vision is just fine, but there is some offense to his game. He moves the puck decent on the power play and flashes a tier above as a distributor. If you’re expecting more, you’ll be disappointed; but if you want a two-way defenseman with size who can close a gap and transition the offense at a high level, he’s your man. Peyton Krebs, C, Kootenay-WHL Jan. 26, 2001 | 5-foot-11 | 181 pounds Krebs is in a tough situation on a rebuilding Kootenay team this season, but he’s been everything that team could have hoped for. He’s an all-situations center, an 18-year-old captain and a consistent offensive threat. Krebs is a great skater and also a fantastic playmaker. He’s always looking to make a play and has some of the most creative dishes I’ve seen this season. Krebs is also a competitive defensive forward who can kill penalties and be trusted to do so in the pros. Nicholas Robertson, LW, Peterborough-OHL Sept. 11, 2001 | 5-foot-9 | 168 pounds Robertson has impressed me all season, from the Hlinka Gretzky through his play in the OHL. He’s a dynamic player. He often makes highlight reel type plays, going through legs and finding a way to create a chance out of nothing. Robertson can make the creative dekes, but he’s also a very good passer and shooter. His shot is one of the best in the draft. He can snipe pucks off the crossbar and has often beat goalies from a distance. His footwork is fine, but he could use an extra gear in his feet for such a smaller player. Very Good NHL Prospect/First-Round Pick Ryan Suzuki, C, Barrie-OHL May 28, 2001 | six-foot | 172 pounds Suzuki, the younger brother of the Montreal prospect, has been a top playmaker in the OHL since being drafted. His vision is outstanding, with the ability to wait out lanes and hit passes through seams at a very high rate. He’s skilled and can navigate in tight spaces. The criticism of Suzuki among scouts is his lack of physicality, especially as a smaller/slighter forward. However, I like how he defends due to how smart he is and he can kill penalties at the amateur level. He doesn’t have as good a shot as his brother, Nick, but Ryan’s a much better skater. Philip Tomasino, C, Niagara-OHL July 28, 2001 | six-foot | 181 pounds Tomasino is a very talented forward whose ice time and production has gone up as the season’s gone along. He’s a very fast skater, with high-end puck skills and the vision to make difficult plays. His tempo is quick. Tomasino is a threat off the rush due to how quickly his feet and hands move. And when you think of ‘playing fast’ in the league today, he’s a guy who is built to do that. Tomasino has a slight build and isn’t the best at winning 1-on-1 battles in the tough areas. He can at times get pushed around and out of the game, and other times he’ll drive the tough areas. He’ll be pressed for ice time and power play opportunity on a deep contending Niagara team, but he’s got no-doubt top 15-pick talent with the potential for more. Nils Hoglander, LW, Rogle-SHL Dec. 20, 2000 | 5-foot-9 | 185 pounds Hoglander has had a quality first season in the SHL, being a top-nine forward for Rogle and showing his high-skill game can translate versus men. When Hoglander has the puck on his stick, he’s trying to make a skilled play and for a young player in the SHL he executes fairly often. He’s got fantastic hands, can weave pucks in and out of legs, and can make the spectacular play. He’s not a selfish dangler, though, as he’s a great passer and looks for his teammates constantly. Hoglander isn’t the biggest forward at 5-foot-9, but he plays with a lot of energy and engages well. Thomas Harley, D, Mississauga-OHL Aug. 19, 2001 | 6-foot-3 | 183 pounds Harley’s development curve spiked this season. One of the youngest players in the draft, Harley progressed from a decent prospect to a 25-30 minutes a night defenseman for the Steelheads with impressive tools. He’s big, mobile, skilled and smart. That combination is attractive. Harley skates with the quickest forwards in the OHL with the ability to jump up into the attack. He’s good with the puck, showing some creativity and good vision – at times very good. His feet and wingspan allow him to make stops, but he needs to bulk up a lot and be better at times in his own end. Raphael Lavoie, RW, Halifax-QMJHL Sept. 25, 2000 | 6-foot-4 | 198 pounds Lavoie’s a player who generates some debate in scouting circles. The pure tools are high end. He’s 6-foot-4 and skates well – and not just well for his size, I think he’s an above-average speedster among pros and has great puck skills. There are times he’ll fly down the wing, dangle a defender and get a grade A chance, and he’ll wow the crowd. That said, as a late 2000 birth date on a good QMJHL team, his production is mediocre. This reflects a consistency problem in his game, as well as the fact that scouts aren’t the biggest fans of his decision-making. He has a ton of potential and I like the player a lot, but a big second half and playoffs will go a long way toward maintaining his stock. Cole Caufield, RW, USNTDP-USHL Jan. 2, 2001 | 5-foot-7 | 157 pounds Caufield is known for one thing: scoring goals. He’s one of the best American snipers to ever come through the USNTDP. His shot is not only incredibly quick but very accurate. He’s not going to pick a corner every shot, but he does so quite often for a guy who leans into shots like he does. He’s not just a shooter, though. He’s got great hands and vision, with the ability to make plays in open ice and off the rush. He’s not as great a skater as you’d hope for at 5-foot-7, but he’s an above-average speedster. His size is his main drawback and I’m skeptical that he’ll be as impactful in the NHL as in junior, but I still think he’ll be a very good pro. Victor Soderstrom, D, Brynas-SHL Feb. 26, 2001 | 5-foot-11 | 176 pounds Soderstrom grew on me over the past year. In my initial viewings, I thought he had some skill but was never in awe of any part of his game. He’s moved up to the SHL level, logging significant minutes and playing the power play as a 17-year-old. Soderstrom is a great puck mover, showing high-end IQ moving the puck and having ice in his veins under pressure. He also has very quick hands and is able to make plays through defenders. For a smaller guy, his skating is good but nothing special, but he’s a good defender despite his size. Nathan Legare, RW, Baie-Comeau-QMJHL Jan. 11, 2001 | six-foot | 196 pounds Legare is a key component on one of the best teams in the CHL. He’s got one of the best shots in the draft. He’s scored a lot of goals this season, wiring shots from long distance off a post/crossbar or blowing it past a goalie. He’s a great scorer and that’s where he’ll make his money, but he’s also a very smart overall player. Legare can hit tight seams consistently and is very crafty overall with the puck. He has a decent top gear but the stride isn’t smooth. Legare is a big body forward and is hard to dislodge along the boards. Brett Leason, RW, Prince Albert-WHL April 30, 1999 | 6-foot-4 | 198 pounds Leason was a significant riser all season. He’s been the top player in the WHL and, as a third-year draft-eligible, worked his way onto Canada’s World Junior Championship team. He’s 6-foot-4, but also has an intriguing skill set. He’s not a highlight reel type of player by any means, but he has solid puck skills and can create offense with above-average vision. The biggest reason for Leason’s jump as a prospect is his skating. It’s improved from poor to potentially above-average as a pro. He’s big and strong, too, showing good puck protection skills. Daniil Gutik, LW, Yaroslavl-MHL Aug. 31, 2001 | 6-foot-3 | 179 pounds A quick glance of Gutik’s stats this season will leave you unimpressed. His scoring in the Russian junior league is pedestrian to date. However, after watching him 20-plus times in the past two years, he’s no doubt a first-round pick on my board. Gutik’s ability to beat defenders 1-on-1 is near elite level, and he makes it seem easy with how often he dekes through traffic. He also has great vision and regularly sets up his teammates for great chances. He’s a flawed player, though. He is slow and lacks pace. Moritz Seider, D, Mannheim-DEL April 6, 2001 | 6-foot-4 | 198 pounds Seider played all season in the top German pro league. At the IIHF U20 B pool, though, we saw the best of Seider. He was the best defenseman in the tournament as a double underage player. He’s a 6-foot-4 defenseman who skates and moves the puck well, showing great poise and instincts. The main criticism of Seider is his lack of standout skill, and he won’t be a true first power play guy in the NHL, but he’s got decent touch and makes plays. Defensively, he’s a rock with his wingspan, feet and defensive acumen, and projects as a tough minutes player in the NHL. Arthur Kaliyev, LW, Hamilton-OHL June 26, 2001 | 6-foot-2 | 190 pounds There is no more divisive a prospect in this year’s class than Kaliyev. I’ve had scouts argue to me that I’m crazy if I don’t have him in my first round, and others say I’m crazy if I do. Kaliyev has lit up the OHL this season. He’s one of the best goal scorers in the CHL. His shot is an absolute rocket and, if goalies are not in position, they won’t have time to adjust once he lets it go. Kaliyev is also a very good playmaker who makes high-end plays. He skates OK, but the main criticism of his game is his pace and compete. Kaliyev can often look like he’s not going that hard and will have long stretches of indifference. That said, even in the many games where he looks like he’s doing nothing, you’ll check the box score and see one goal and two points. Thus the question is whether his style of play will translate to the NHL pace. Pavel Dorofeyev, RW, Magnitogorsk-MHL Oct. 26, 2000 | six-foot | 163 pounds Dorofeyev is one of the best forwards in Russia’s junior league this season, often lighting up score sheets and playing at the KHL level for long stretches. He is a highly skilled playmaker. He’s the guy you want with the puck on a zone entry or on the power play. He’s someone who likes to make plays, but one criticism of his game is he can lack urgency at times. That said, he has a fine top gear and overall skating ability when he does get going. He’s not an overly physical player, but he’s decent defensively. Just Missed The Cut (Alphabetical order) Egor Afanasyev, LW, Muskegon-USHL: Afanasyev is a very skilled big man with a bullet shot who produced very well in the USHL this season. Maxim Cajkovic, RW, Saint John-QMJHL: Cajkovic started off a little slow in his first North American season but lately looks a lot better. He’s quick, very skilled and has a great shot. John Farinacci, C, Dexter School (Massachusetts): Farinacci is for me the clear best high school prospect this season. He’s a high-end playmaker. Vladislav Firstov, LW, Waterloo-USHL: Firstov grew on me as the season went along. He’s physically immature, but he’s a great playmaker with a hard shot. Nolan Foote, LW, Kelowna-WHL: Foote is a skilled big man who can make plays and score goals. Albin Grewe, RW, Djurgarden-SHL: Grewe is a player I have a soft spot for. He’s quick with a lot of skill and has a power-forward style game. Dillon Hamaliuk, LW, Seattle-WHL: Dillon is a big power-winger with good skills and someone who makes plays around the hard areas. He’ll miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. Robert Mastrosimone, LW, Chicago-USHL: Mastro’s point totals don’t reflect how well he’s played. I love his skill level and hockey sense. Samuel Poulin, RW, Sherbrooke-QMJHL: Poulin will never be a highlight-reel guy, but he’s a very smart two-way forward with good skill and vision. Jamieson Rees, C, Sarnia-OHL: Rees is a highly skilled, competitive two-way forward who has been very impressive when healthy this season. Alex Vlasic, D, USNTDP-USHL: Vlasic has been inconsistent this season, but few players match his raw talent. He’s 6-foot-6 with good feet and I like his hockey sense. Top 10 Goalies I’m a fan of this year’s goalie crop. There’s a lot of talent in net this season compared to recent years. Spencer Knight will likely be a first-round pick, and the rest of my top 10 is filled with goalies that I am optimistic about, as opposed to filling a top 10 just to have names on there. 1. Spencer Knight, USNTDP-USHL 2. Pyotr Kochetkov, Ryazan-VHL 3. Taylor Gauthier, Prince George-WHL 4. Amir Miftakhov, Kazan-VHL 5. Trent Miner, Vancouver-WHL 6. Hunter Jones, Peterborough-OHL 7. Mads Sogaard, Medicine Hat-WHL 8. Hugo Alnefelt, HV71-J20 SuperElit 9. Lukas Parik, Liberec-Czech Junior 10. Dustin Wolf, Everett-WHL
I'm not helping us lose for Hughes, but I've been at some fun games this year. Games I've been at so far 9/22 4-3 OT win preseason v Boston 10/4 3-2 OT loss to CBJ 10/26 2-1 loss to WPG 11/13 6-1 win v Phx 11/21 3-2 OT win v Boston 12/10 3-1 win v LA 12/31 4-3 SO loss to Florida 1/6 3-2 loss to Washington Tonight 3-2 OT win v Toronto 9 games, 5 wins 2 ot losses and 2 1 goal losses (5 games total went to extra time). Also in the 8 regular season games I've gone to AA has 5 goals and 5 assists Fun atmosphere tonight, felt like an old school wings game