Detroit Red Wings: Priority Waste - Our Sponsor and Our Defense Core

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by DeToxRox, Jan 24, 2016.

  1. DeToxRox

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    Shit. Wrong tweet
     
  2. DeToxRox

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  3. Vinegar Strokes

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    You think they are trading him?
     
  4. DeToxRox

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    He probably is sick but it’s not bad timing for him to be out of the office
     
  5. DeToxRox

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    Bernier is out for the night with an upper body injury
     
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  6. The Banks

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    Let’s hope jimmy hurts his groin (temporarily so we can trade his ass)
     
  7. DeToxRox

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    Can we bring back Coreau
     
  8. DeToxRox

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    This game is definitely going to OT
     
  9. Vinegar Strokes

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    Fuck. We need to stop winning.
     
  10. The Banks

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    We are playing really well. Fortunately we’re not burying our chances
     
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  11. DetroitNole

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    Abby may be the worst forward on our team. Good thing we have him 4 more years at 4+ mil a year
     
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  12. The Banks

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    Great loss. Kids looked good throughout.
     
  13. Vinegar Strokes

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    Didn’t we send all the kids down to Grand Rapids?
     
  14. DeToxRox

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  15. The Banks

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    Sorry, I still refer to Larkin, Mantha, AA, Hronek, Bert, etc as kids
     
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  16. DeToxRox

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  17. The Banks

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    Coming off of a 6 game pointless streak Zadina has now strung together 9 points (5+4) in his past 8 games and 5 straight games with a point.
     
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  18. DeToxRox

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    Mantha - Larkin - Bert has been so fucking good the last two games. Mantha is back to being engaged. If he could put it together nightly, he would score 30.
     
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  19. The Banks

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    Mantha should be putting up 30 a year. I’m not sure Bert is the optimal linemate for him though.
     
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  20. Vinegar Strokes

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    You know who would be a good line Mate? Jack Hughes.
     
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  21. The Banks

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    Currently have the third best lottery odds.
     
  22. DeToxRox

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  23. DetroitNole

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    Wings calling up Zadina sometime after the trade deadline so he can get some games in this season
     
  24. DeToxRox

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    Zadina assisted on the Griffs first goal tonight
     
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  25. DeToxRox

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    Let’s go Hawks.
     
  26. Vinegar Strokes

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    Great game so far.
     
  27. Vinegar Strokes

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    I kind of like Tirico.
     
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  28. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    Agree. He’s good at everything.
     
  29. DeToxRox

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    Didn’t score but damn

     
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  30. goblue31602

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    Malkin likes to do shit like that. That's a laser backhand though.
     
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  31. Vinegar Strokes

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  32. DetroitNole

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    Its hard for me to get too mad when its AA, Larkin and Mantha dominating....but yea about to pick up some worthless points
     
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  33. DeToxRox

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    A game like this would annoy me more if Helm and Glendening had all these points. Seeing Larkin and Mantha dominate is good.
     
  34. Vinegar Strokes

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    We have eight 6 on 5. Goals? How many were empty nets? I would guess all of them. Never mind lol
     
  35. DetroitNole

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    As a team tied for 3rd worst record in the NHL, its odd that I am oddly optimistic about the Wings going forward. I think they are in the best shape of any Detroit team. There is some real young talent on this team and a few in the minors who could develop into real good players. Keep drafting well and shed some bad contracts and I could see this team being pretty good in about 2-3 years. Need some more good young defenseman.
     
  36. Vinegar Strokes

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    They’re a playoff team next year. That’s why getting that super star in the draft this year is important.
     
  37. DeToxRox

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    We are going to beat ‘the Wild Friday, but we should see some more regression back to the norm after that.
     
  38. DetroitNole

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    I know the two big prizes in the draft, but if we end in the 3-7 range, any big time defenseman prospects in the draft? I know Bowen Byram name has popped up in a few mock drafts around there. Or is it likely we look at someone like Podkolvin or Cozens?
     
  39. DeToxRox

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    I like Cozens at three but really, 3-8 or so are all the same.
     
  40. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    Lots of good trade deadline info here...

    - Jensen is the best rental D available (according to the game score model)
    - Nyquist high on the list of wingers. Winger market saturated with Stone and Panarin "available". It would be nice if neither moves and some GMs panic.

    By the numbers: Measuring the value of this year’s potential trade deadline acquisitions
    By Dom Luszczyszyn Feb 20, 2019[​IMG] 37 [​IMG]
    Generally speaking, there’s no day in the hockey season news cycle that is more overhyped than trade deadline day. It’s a day filled with the hope that potential blockbuster deals can shake up the league in dramatic fashion, yet rarely delivers. Seldom are there any legitimate difference-makers available that can move the needle towards that goal.

    A quick look at the “top commodities” dealt over the past five deadlines reveals just how shallow the talent pool has been, even at the very top, and why trade deadline day has often been a huge dud.

    2018: Ryan McDonagh, Derick Brassard, Evander Kane, Rick Nash
    2017: Kevin Shattenkirk, Martin Hanzal, Patrick Eaves, Thomas Vanek
    2016: Eric Staal, Andrew Ladd, Jiri Hudler, Mikkel Boedker
    2015: Keith Yandle, Antoine Vermette, Jeff Petry
    2014: Martin St. Louis, Ryan Miller, Thomas Vanek, Marian Gaborik
    2013: Jarome Iginla, Marian Gaborik, Jason Pominville, Jay Bouwmeester

    I count a couple of top pairing defenders, one true game-breaking winger and a number of OK top six players – but very little in the way of top tier talent. If these are generally the calibre for marquee names available, then it’s no wonder the annual snoozefest has become so overhyped.

    However, this year is different.

    Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky are set to depart Columbus, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene are likely moving on from Ottawa, and there are a few other intriguing names too – the market is bursting with game-breaking talent in a way that hasn’t been seen in recent seasons.

    Over the past two years, I’ve done an annual trade deadline value post, measuring how much the rumoured names can improve a team. According to my model, last season had zero top of the lineup calibre rentals and McDonagh was the only non-rental traded that graded out as high. The year prior there was one. This year there are five, with two (Panarin and Stone) grading out as elite.

    That makes this year’s trade deadline significantly more interesting as there’s a number of names that can appreciably alter a franchise’s fortunes – including the teams trading those talents away. Based on Craig Custance’s trade board(along with a few other names he passed along) these are the most valuable players available.

    [​IMG]

    Let’s start at the top. In Panarin and Stone, potential suitors would be acquiring players that are bonafide top 10 talents at their position, maybe even top five. My model considers both to be top 20 players in the league right now, with Panarin at 10th and Stone at 20th. Evolving Hockey’s WAR model has Stone and Panarin both in the top 10 this season while Corsica’s player ratings have Panarin rated as the fifth-best left winger in hockey and Stone as the eighth-best right winger. Adding that kind of talent to a team is a game changer, the kind of move that can legitimately put a team over the top.

    Both players can pile up points, each scoring at over a point-per-game pace, but perhaps more importantly, they drive play better than almost any other players in the league. Among those that have played over 1000 minutes in the past three seasons, Stone ranks first in relative Corsi percentage, while Panarin ranks third. Importantly, that dominance translates to the scoresheet, too. Their teams have each seen a greater than 10 percent increase in goal share with each player on the ice, Stone ranking second and Panarin 19th in the league. In terms of micro-stats, Panarin’s work is illustrious as he’s one of the league’s best in transition, as well as creating chances in the offensive zone. Stone isn’t on the same level and earns his value elsewhere, but he still looks elite in that regard.

    In last year’s post, I estimated that one win of talent is worth an increase of anywhere between one-to-three percent in Stanley Cup odds for a contender. For players like Panarin and Stone who are worth over 3.5 wins each, their addition alone can fundamentally change the playoff landscape depending on where they go, something only a handful of players in this league can do. These two are absolutely in that tier.

    Aside from those two, there are still a lot of other talented pieces available. The winger market, in particular, is very interesting.

    Mats Zuccarello and Gustav Nyquist have played like first liners this year, albeit on poor clubs, and despite not generating much hype, grade out as high-end second liners. As far as wingers go they’re both responsible and capable in all three zones and would be decent complements to any top-six group. After those two, there’s a number of capable second-line calibre players that can provide depth scoring.

    Micheal Ferland looks promising, has shown well next to talented players like Sebastian Aho and Johnny Gaudreau over the past two years and plays the game with an edge – something many teams covet at this time of year. However, with the Canes surging of late, it feels unlikely the team will move him.

    Ryan Dzingel is another pending UFA in Ottawa and while his surprising scoring prowess this season is nice, it looks to be shooting percentage related as well as having an opportunity to play on the power play, an opportunity he’s unlikely to get elsewhere. He’s one of the lesser 5-on-5 players in terms of relative stats and that’s saying something on a weak Ottawa team.

    Marcus Johansson and Jakob Silfverberg are rounding out into form at the right time and would be attractive depth additions. In February, Johansson has eight points in 10 games and has helped shoulder the load offensively with Taylor Hall out. Silfverberg has been Anaheim’s best player (low bar, I know) with four goals and an assist in nine games while being one of five Anaheim players with a positive shot differential.

    That leaves one other marquee name: Wayne Simmonds. The Philadelphia winger is perhaps the most controversial name on the board this season, mainly due to his price-tag. It seems that a team will likely have to spend top dollar acquiring Simmonds’ services this season, under the ruse that the player they’re acquiring is the same 60-point power forward they’ve seen in orange and black over the last decade or so.

    That’s not who Simmonds is anymore, as he’s on pace for just 37 points this season, which would be his lowest since 2010-11 – his last season in Los Angeles where he played three fewer minutes than he does today and didn’t get top power play time. As he’s moved down the Flyers depth chart, it’s become clear he’s generally a passenger at 5-on-5 too, scoring now at a fourth line rate and having a negative influence on the team’s shot rates. This quick decline shouldn’t come as a shock either. Bruisers like Simmonds tend to age quicker than others with Milan Lucic in Edmonton being a prime example of what Simmonds’ future may look like.

    My model projects that the sum of Simmonds’ on-ice contributions is worth just half-a-win, hardly enough to justify spending a first round pick or more. With Simmonds though, there’s the sandpaper element to his game that may just be worth the price. I’m personally skeptical in today’s NHL (and would rather have Ferland if that’s the case), but it’s certainly possible that the model is missing something there when it comes to Simmonds.

    In terms of low-key additions, Carl Hagelin’s production may be pitiful, but he’s a strong play-driver that can contribute well to a bottom six. Richard Panik is underrated for what he brings to the table as well and is a decent depth scorer.

    At centre, Matt Duchene is the obvious marquee name and while I don’t believe he’s in the same class as Panarin and Stone, he’s likely the biggest available difference-maker outside of those two (and the most likely of the three to be moved too) – a legitimate first-line centre. Duchene has 58 points in 50 games this season, a 95-point pace that would shatter his previous best season where he had 70 in 71 games. The concern with Duchene is paying for that production and then not receiving it. He currently has a 21.4 percent shooting percentage, a 63 percent increase from his previous norm. His 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage is at 11.5 percent, a number that’s likely to come down as well, given that it’s a generally an unsustainable number.

    The other scary thing about Duchene is that as much as he provides on offence, he often gives it back the other way. His teams have only outshot the opposition three times in his 10 NHL seasons, with his career mark sitting at 48.4 percent. That doesn’t scream dominant number one centre, and while part of that is being on crappy teams (he’s generally a positive relative player), one has to wonder why he hasn’t been part of the solution either.

    For those that miss out on Duchene, Kevin Hayes appears to be a decent consolation prize. He hasn’t scored as much this year, but his 42 points in 49 games are nothing to scoff at and his possession numbers have been very decent on a bad Rangers team. The former isn’t too surprising – it comes with more ice time, specifically on the power play – but the latter is, given his track record. Some extra time next to Chris Kreider this season is likely a big factor. At 5-on-5 Hayes is a proven first-line scorer given his rate of production, but don’t expect a 70-point player unless he’s on the top power play, and maybe don’t expect the same play-driving ability either unless there’s a capable 200-foot winger next to him.

    Eric Staal makes for a decent wild-card option at a much cheaper price, especially with the Wild in free-fall (after a 1-6-3 swing, their playoff chances sit at 26 percent) and taking a more honest look at their club both in the present and future. Staal is getting up there in age, but he has playoff experience. He may lag behind the other two centres mentioned above in production this season, potentially a sign of aging, but over the past three seasons he’s actually out-produced Duchene (2.02 points-per-60) and Hayes (1.92 points-per-60) at 5-on-5 with a 2.16 rate. He has a better two-way pedigree too.

    On defence, Nick Jensen appears to be the only useful rental that’s available. He doesn’t produce much on the scoresheet, but he limits shots at an above average rate, is decent with the puck and can play up and down the lineup (he actually fared OK playing against top competition during certain stretches this season). Adam McQuaid is the other “big” name on the market and will likely hurt more teams than he helps. He has some defensive upside with bark to his game, but few defenders are more anemic on offence than he is, making him purely one-dimensional – and not very good at that one dimension to boot. He really struggles at moving the puck, a vital trait for defencemen in today’s game, and is also one of the least disciplined players in the league. Cody Ceci might also be available and while he’s much maligned by many in the analytics community, it’s possible he might fare better in a reduced role – he currently has one of the toughest assignments in the league and is a surprisingly decent puck-mover. That being said, his situation isn’t enough to excuse his poor play at 5-on-5 where he’s been below a 45 percent shot share in each of the past four seasons.

    On the non-rental front, any team that can pry Jonathan Huberdeau or Mike Hoffman out of Florida will get some serious scoring punch. The two are very capable top line scorers who are likely considered expendable due to a poor plus-minus. I don’t buy that stat much, but it might mean a team is in for a steal.

    Brett Pesce is the next most intriguing name here and is likely the best defender available right now, especially considering he’s a right shot. He’s a solid 2/3 that always does well in his own end and can kill penalties – generally good for a 54 percent shot share, a good number anywhere else but Carolina. Considering the team’s recent success, it seems unlikely he’ll actually be dealt, unless it’s for scoring help.

    As for the rest, Jeff Carter seems to be a shell of his former self and on a serious decline. Charlie Coyle is a passable second-line scorer with middling possession numbers. Ilya Kovalchuk is far from the talent he used to be and a serious defensive detriment at 5-on-5. Adam Henrique is a 29-year-old, third-liner whose five-year, $29.1 million contract doesn’t kick in until next year – hard pass.

    Then there are the goalies.

    [​IMG]

    Talbot was already traded and he grades out as the worst available (numbers displayed above are with the Oilers). After being a key cog to Edmonton’s 2016-17 playoff run, Talbot has fallen off and is in the middle of the worst season of his career. He grades out as below replacement level making it no surprise he lost his starting job in Edmonton. The other three should still be decent starters based on their recent track record, even if two of them have seriously struggled this season.

    Bobrovsky is the obvious big name and while he has been sub-par this season, he has a lengthy track record of excellence that suggests a bounce-back is likely. His goals saved above expected this year is negative for the first time since 2015-16 and he was one of the league’s best goalies over the past two years. In the three years prior, he averaged 0.41 goals saved above expected per 60, ranking third in the league among starters. Goalies are fickle beings where even the best aren’t safe from a weirdly bad season. However, those in the upper echelon do deserve more benefit of the doubt than others, especially with a large body of work. Bobrovsky is in that tier.

    Jimmy Howard is the back-up plan to Bobrovsky and considering his play this year, his salary, and his cost to acquire, he might just be the better bet. Jonathan Quick, on the other hand, still grades out highly, but given his drop-off this year, age, and contract term left (four years) he should be avoided.

    It’s not often that trade deadline day is worthy of the hype, but this season’s crop of talent might prove to be the exception to the rule, especially at the forward position. This year there are some real game-changers available, guys who can seriously move the needle and make a difference to a team’s bottom line. If there was ever a year to go all-in, it’s this one.

    Of course, there’s the Tampa Bay factor underlying it all. The Lightning are so far ahead of the pack that it’ll take a lot of catching up for any team to be on par. In most years it would be near impossible, but this year’s marketplace has some weapons that can actually make that happen. And even if not, they can bring a team closer and turn a potential series from a cakewalk to a nail-biter.

    In a sport as random as hockey, every team has a chance and every extra percentage point matters. This season, there are a lot more percentage points up for grabs.
     
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  41. DeToxRox

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    Holland is going to wait the deadline out. Considering we have two games before Monday, I would love it if they sat Gus and Jensen, but we all know it won’t happen.
     
  42. hoss2183

    hoss2183 Well-Known Member

    The first domino has fallen and it's good for the Wings. Matt Duchene to Columbus.

    This suggests Columbus will not sell Panarin. Move Nyquist up two notches with both Panarin and Duchene off the board.

    It also makes Howard the only goaltender worth much available now that Bobrovsky doesn't appear to be on the move either (although no one even needs a goalie at the moment).
     
  43. DetroitNole

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    Howard is out tonight with "the flu"

    Sateri called up
     
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  44. DeToxRox

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    Sadly the flu has been running through the team the last week
     
  45. DeToxRox

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  46. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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  47. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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    Bowey is a young RHD. Only 23. Has upside but he makes some dumb decisions with the puck. Still, he’s a great addition to a second.
     
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