Detroit Tigers Thread: Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter Here

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Celemo, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. ~ taylor ~

    ~ taylor ~ Boom... head shot.
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    That would have been a difficult arbitration hearing. "Well, he didn't hit many dingers, he has vertigo and, while we mean this in the nicest was, he's mentally unstable."
     
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  2. DeToxRox

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  3. Vinegar Strokes

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    He’s pretty much been retired for last 5 years
     
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  4. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Tucker
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    When are we going to make some trades or sign somebody?
     
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  5. DeToxRox

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    Winter Meetings are later this week, right? Probably stuff starts then.
     
  6. Vinegar Strokes

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    Thank you for being a bust

     
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  7. DeToxRox

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  8. Vinegar Strokes

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  9. smeegsgreen

    smeegsgreen Big fan of Koalas
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    $10M seems like a huge overpay even if it’s for one year
     
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  10. DeToxRox

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    I am guessing more than half that deal is bonuses.
     
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  11. Vinegar Strokes

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    Not a good sign that the first big thing Scott Harris does is something that fucking idiot Avila would do.

    big time overpay if it’s all guaranteed. He can’t stay healthy, and is only good a couple weeks a season.
     
  12. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    Whatever. Boyd is what he is, and we have a weird roster with pitchers where we have no clue who will be available and for how many innings next year. I don't hate the premise, and $10M for what we're asking for isn't really that much of a reach. I just don't really like doing these kinds of things on December 1 when other things are still out there that could be of more use long term.
     
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  13. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    We have no clue how many innings we can get from Turnbull or Skubal (if he's able to pitch at all). Or Boyd, for that matter, as he only pitched in relief last year when he finally got going.

     
  14. Vinegar Strokes

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    You can get some loser from AAA to give you what Boyd most likely will for the league minimum. Out of all the available SP, why this guy? If Harris is some analytical dude, that definitely doesn’t describe Boyd, as he fails at most of the things the stat nerds look at.

    Makes sense though that he was in Giants organization for majority of last year
     
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  15. smeegsgreen

    smeegsgreen Big fan of Koalas
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    I’m sure they’ll start Wentz over Brieske if that’s the rotation but this starting staff is riddled with previous/current major injuries. I’m sure Brieske gets spot starts as injuries will reoccur and hopefully he’ll outperform others. He could be 3rd rotation guy if he himself can stay healthy. Avila might have a placket in his house with Brieske’s photo with 27th round as the header.
     
  16. Vinegar Strokes

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    This Harris dude needs to start making some moves.
     
  17. DeToxRox

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  18. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    Mize had TJ, right? Why do they describe it that way?
     
  19. DeToxRox

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    Lol good call.
     
  20. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    Rick Porcello announced his retirement today. Imagine thinking back in 2013 when he was 24 years old that a decade later Verlander and Scherzer would each be making $40M per and Porcello would be retired.
     
  21. Vinegar Strokes

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    He retired because he sucked ass and hasn’t pitched in 2 years. Still can’t believe he stole the Cy Young award from Verlander in 2016
     
  22. DeToxRox

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    Apparently the MLB draft lottery is tonight
     
  23. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    I'm hoping Harris will start making some trades soon because I don't see a ton going on with FA the rest of the way.

    He did a media session last night. I have no clue if he knows what he's doing or will be any good. But at least he doesn't sound like a 7 year old who wrote notes in crayon when he speaks so I'll be less embarrassed if he sucks.
     
  24. Vinegar Strokes

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    We getting top 3 pick boys. I can feel it. Let’s go.
     
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  25. Vinegar Strokes

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    Is this stat legit? 600 pitches is fucking crazy. Wonder what the average is.

     
  26. Vinegar Strokes

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    These clowns are saying #1 pick is franchise changing player. Unless you draft Casey Mize and Torkelson.
     
  27. Vinegar Strokes

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    Let’s fucking go.
     
  28. DeToxRox

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    Picking third. I’ll take it.
     
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  29. Vinegar Strokes

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    Anyone have baseball America subscription?

     
  30. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    Building absolutely no enthusiasm going into next year. Attendance going to be shit if they don't start off hot
     
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  31. Vinegar Strokes

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    yeah not gonna lie. Pretty disappointing off season so far (in terms of adding new players). At least we get to hear Atta Boyd after every strikeout next season.
     
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  32. DeToxRox

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  33. DeToxRox

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  34. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    I'm hoping they're just saying random things at the moment because this is really stupid. There's one thing Schoop does at an above atrocious rate, and that is "play defense at 2B". If he's going to play in the line-up, why would he play anywhere else?

     
  35. Vinegar Strokes

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    He should be playing for the Mud Hens
     
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  36. DeToxRox

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    MG2 I need to know the top three prospects in this draft
     
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  37. Tug

    Tug Well-Known Member
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    But not off a list, we know how that works out

    Need to know Vinegar Strokes list too
     
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  38. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    From Kiley McDaniel yesterday...

    The consensus group
    Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
    Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida

    I'll group the SEC outfielders together since they're similar and might be the top two candidates to go 1-1 at this point.

    Like many top picks, Crews has a long history of performance; he was seen as one of the best in his class by his sophomore year of high school. He looked ticketed to go in the late-first to compensation rounds in the pandemic-shortened 2020 MLB draft and had a big signing bonus ask, higher than where he was projected. Given his outsized expectations and likely outcome in the draft, he pulled his name out early, so he never has been subject to the full process.

    Crews' headline ability is plus-plus raw power that comes from big bat speed. He also has strong production in the best league in amateur baseball. The concerns about him are similar to those that existed out of high school, but they're obviously much smaller now: He's probably a corner outfielder rather than a center fielder, and it's unclear if he'll be a good or merely OK hitter for average, with a good but not great approach. To be clear, this is a real nitpick.

    Langford, on the other end of the spectrum, was anonymous his freshman year at Florida as a lightly regarded backup catcher with four at-bats all season. He then jumped to Crews' level with a scorching-hot sophomore year in 2022. Langford is an above-average runner who will flash a plus run time and has above-average-to-plus raw power. He doesn't have a 70-grade tool and the track record is just one season, but there's a chance that by draft time he's seen as a good outfielder (maybe even a center fielder?) with 25-homer upside and one of the best two-year college performance runs in recent memory.

    To put all of this in context statistically, Langford was the regular left fielder for the Gators last year and hit .355/.447/.719 with 26 homers, 36 walks and 44 strikeouts in 256 at-bats; Crews hit .349/.463/.691 with 22 homers, 42 walks, and 56 strikeouts in 249 at-bats.

    And for historical context, former Florida 3B Jonathan India's breakthrough draft year performance that took him from a third-rounder at the beginning of the 2018 season to the No. 5 pick at the end of the year was .350/.497/.717 with 21 homers, 60 walks and 56 strikeouts in 226 at-bats. One thing I noticed when bearing down on both of them at the SEC tournament last year is that Langford has one of the simplest swings you can imagine, reminiscent of former Gator Pete Alonso, while Crews is in a squat and moves around a lot more in the box, looking like a batter with a higher-maintenance swing subject to streakier performance.

    So, if Crews and Langford merely hold serve and basically repeat what they did last year (almost every elite prospect in this situation improves their stat line in their draft year), they're strong bets for the top three to five picks. As pedigreed SEC bats with some defensive value, they are exactly what teams want to take with high picks, so the odds are stacked in their favor.

    That said, if either falls off a bit or just has a bad year, there's one more SEC position player with the one variable in his favor that Crews and Langford don't have.

    Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss

    Finishing off the SEC flavor (it's barbecue, if you were wondering) at the top, we have Gonzalez. Now, ideally, teams want that elite SEC hitter with pedigree and performance who can play up the middle, and Gonzalez has the best chance of this group to do all three. He grew into his power in his sophomore year -- hitting .273/.405/.558 with 18 homers, 50 walks and 32 strikeouts in 242 at-bats -- and he's a lefty-hitting shortstop out of a Southern California high school who got early-round attention in the 2021 draft.

    His swing is a little funky (he bails toward first base) and he isn't a slam-dunk above-average defensive shortstop for every team, so the "bear" case is he's just a good ballplayer with a bunch of above-average qualities who will play in the infield. For the "bull" case, the funk seems somewhere from unimportant to fixable. You might project him as a big leaguer with 20ish homers as an everyday shortstop -- and there are only eight to 12 of those at any given time.

    Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

    The other thing every team wants at the top of the draft is a high-probability ace. Dollander is not quite at that Stephen Strasburg/David Price area where ace is the expected outcome, but scouts will be tossing that word around all spring trying to figure out where he falls in this hierarchy. And then they also have to consider the harrowing chances of injury or regression, as recent top-of-the-draft potential ace from the SEC Jack Leiter has shown.

    Physically and in his delivery, Dollander has a look similar to Jacob deGrom. He'll sit 94-98 mph, mix in a slider and curveball that are both above-average to plus and an above-average changeup with control you can project at starter quality. He carved the SEC last year (79.0 IP with 14 GS, 50 H, 13 BB, 108 K for a 2.39 ERA, and 10-0 record) after transferring from Georgia Southern, where he flew under the radar. His breaking ball quality and command are two variables to keep an eye on all spring as Dollander can also get into the "more hittable than you'd think" area for stretches against top competition with a good game plan. Again, this is also very nitpicky, but these are the conversations scouts are having right now.

    Others in the mix
    Max Clark, OF, Franklin HS (Ind.), Vanderbilt commit
    Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS (N.C.), North Carolina commit

    For some, Clark and/or Jenkins belong in the top group. They've been grouped together for at least a year as the two top prep bats in this class. Clark is a plus-running center fielder with fast-twitch explosiveness, advanced feel for contact and solid raw power for that profile, along with a colorful personality. Jenkins has a potential plus hit/power combination as his selling point in a classic right-field profile and tons of history. They'll need big springs to jump over all of the SEC types in the first group, but both are strong bets to land somewhere in the top 10 picks either way.

    3B Aidan Miller, Mitchell HS (Fla.), Arkansas commit
    SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest HS (Fla.), Florida State commit

    Miller has long been in the conversation at the top of this class and fits into the Josh Donaldson-type mold of a third baseman with huge bat speed and power. This summer he showed more bat control, while his main battle will be trying to win over model-heavy teams that hold his age (19.1 on draft day) against him. If you'd like to argue against the way some teams use age against players (Brett Baty is a notable miss for that group), check out Miller crushing a long home run at age 15.

    Nimmala is on the other end of the age spectrum -- 17.8 on draft day, while something like 18.3 is average for a drafted high schooler. That's a huge empirical edge based on draft history, so he'll be championed by model teams but also has plenty of scouting appeal with fast-twitch explosiveness and a classic shortstop profile. Many expect him to have a Keoni Cavaco-like rise (the 13th overall pick in 2019 who came out of nowhere) this spring, with a chance for even more.

    With the pair playing in Florida after a strong summer, they'll be priorities and both will be scouted hard in February and early March by those in town for spring training and/or waiting for the weather to thaw up north. This gives them plenty of time to start a spring-long charge up the board with waves of special assistants and GMs flying in to confirm or deny the early hunches of scouts.

    Players up north often have only a month of games with nice enough weather for that process to occur and face notable competition only a few times per spring, so they have trouble creating that narrative and having enough runway to move up the board in the spring. This is why some draft model teams will boost those northern players to account for them being underdrafted at times; Mike Trout is a notable example.

    Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
    Enrique Bradfield, CF, Vanderbilt
    Brayden Taylor, SS, TCU
    Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner HS (Pa.), Auburn commit

    These four are lower-upside types, due to a lack of game-changing power, who don't have a great shot to get all the way up to the top pick but seem likely to go in the top dozen picks.

    Wilson is the son of longtime big leaguer Jack Wilson and has the kind of lanky frame where you can imagine power coming eventually, but it isn't there yet, whereas the bat and glove are. Bradfield is a throwback type as a top-of-the-scale 80-runner whom scouts have seen since his freshman year in high school in the same lineup as Mets 3B Mark Vientos and Red Sox 1B Triston Casas at American Heritage. Bradfield really knows how to use his speed in all phases, he has great feel for the game and he's adding more power to his game, but he's always going to be a speed/defense/contact-type first and foremost. Taylor is a plus hitter with a plus approach and will likely slide over to third base long-term; you're hoping the power will play to average. McGonigle is also unlikely to be a shortstop long-term and isn't that big, but he might have been the most consistent hitter in the prep class all summer, with a 15-20 homer upside if it all clicks.
     
  39. DeToxRox

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    Crews seems like he’s the consensus 1.1 guy then, right? Not sure if I prefer Langford or Gonzalez at that point.
     
  40. Vinegar Strokes

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    Pittsburgh is cheap as fuck. They won’t sign Crews
     
  41. Duck Smoker

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    Baseball America posted their first mock with team order set. Crews and Dollander mocked to go 1, 2.

    3. Tigers — Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida

    Langford was the most prominent fall riser in the 2023 draft class after turning in improved run times that make a center field profile look more likely. If that’s the case, his bat goes from profiling well to profiling exceptionally. In 2022 Langford hit .356/.447/.719 with 26 home runs (which tied a Florida program record). He led the Gators in all three triple slash categories, home runs, hits, runs, triples and total bases. His 26 homers were best among all SEC hitters and tied for sixth among all Division I hitters, along with Tennessee Tech’s Jason Hinchman and Georgia Tech’s Kevin Parada.
     
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  42. Duck Smoker

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    Here is the Crews and Dollander summaries just in case they're available. Draft stocks will change a good bit between now and then, of course:
    1. Pirates — Dylan Crews, OF, Louisiana State

    The No. 1 player on the 2023 draft board, Crews has already put up gaudy offensive numbers in his first two seasons with Louisiana State. He’s already a highly-decorated player with the Tigers who homered 18 times as a freshman, then popped 22 more in his sophomore campaign in 2022. Surrounded by an enviable lineup of talent in Baton Rouge, MLB teams will likely be salivating over the numbers he’ll put up in 2023. Crews ranked as the No. 54 prospect in the 2020 class in high school before he pulled out of the draft. He was a heralded underclass hitting prospect when he entered the 2020 draft cycle, but didn’t hit to his expectations during the 2019 showcase circuit and fell outside of first round range because of it. We wrote of Crews at the time: “It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Crews make it to campus, get back to his typical self with the bat and become a first-round pick in three years.” The decision has paid off for the 6-foot slugger, who is a virtual lock to go in the first round and one of the favorites to be the No. 1 overall pick.

    2. Nationals — Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

    If Dollander pitched this summer, there’s a reasonable chance he could be in the No. 1 spot on the 2023 draft board. Clubs can get a bit antsy when they haven’t seen a player for a while, and Dollander last pitched on June 11 against Notre Dame. Still, he’s securely with Crews in the top phylum of talent for the 2023 class and is the best college pitching prospect since perhaps Florida aces Alex Faedo (2017) and AJ Puk (2016)—without the injury or off-the-field questions those players had, respectively. It’s plus stuff across the board with preternatural fastball command that separates him from most amateur pitchers with similar power arsenals. “People have brought up (Jacob) deGrom comps,” said one scout on Dollander.
     
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  43. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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  44. Vinegar Strokes

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    So do all these ridiculous contracts going out, make the Rodriguez and Baez ones tradeable.
     
  45. MG2

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  46. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    Henry seems like a possibly interesting player. The other guy is a 26 year old reliver in AA.
     
  47. DeToxRox

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    Henry had 97 walks across three leagues, so that’s nice. Seems like he’s a pretty big boy though, so I’m not sure what his future position is.
     
  48. MG2

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    Seems like he's already moved to LF after being a 3B in college. Would assume he probably stays in the OF, but who knows.
     
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  49. Vinegar Strokes

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  50. DeToxRox

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