Detroit Tigers Thread: #FreeMize

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Celemo, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. Brocktoon

    Brocktoon Well-Known Member
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    He was a late season call up in 98 and played the entire season in 99 before they traded him. It was before I really followed prospect rankings but I remember him being the Minor League player of the year and having as much hype as anyone. But I do think he came out of nowhere and was a one year wonder in the minors

    Detroit Tigers (1998–99)[edit]
    Kapler made his Major League debut in 1998 at the age of 22.[29] He became the first Tiger since the inception of the draft in 1969 to be selected as late as the 57th round, and reach the majors.[22]

    In 1999, he hit his first career home run on April 30 against Albie Lopez of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Kapler's 10 home runs in his first 64 games was the fastest by a Tiger rookie since 1954, and was not surpassed until 2008.[30] For the season, Kapler wound up hitting a career-high 18 home runs in just over 400 at bats, third among AL rookies, and his 49 RBIs were ninth among AL rookies
     
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  2. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    Oops. I stand corrected. I've tried to block a lot of that childhood portion of my fandom out.
     
  3. Brocktoon

    Brocktoon Well-Known Member
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    did some research on baseball reference and Kapler was the #34 overall prospect in 99, the year before Encarnacion was #15 overall. Seems unimaginable having a pair of positional prospects rated that high
     
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  4. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    I remember Encarnacion getting all hyped up, and then seeing him hit for the first time and thinking "What the fuck? No way that guy is that good with that batting stance/set up." Having no plate discipline didn't help, either.
     
  5. Lipp the Gay Liberal

    Lipp the Gay Liberal Spartan Dawg
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    Surpassed by GOAT Chris Shelton?
     
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  6. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    Shut the fuck up lib boy.
     
  7. Lipp the Gay Liberal

    Lipp the Gay Liberal Spartan Dawg
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    No I guess that was 2006 and he wasn’t a rookie.
     
  8. Lipp the Gay Liberal

    Lipp the Gay Liberal Spartan Dawg
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    Get a life you racist, misogynistic manbaby.
     
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  9. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    Oh look. Butt hurt lib boy throwing out false accusations .
     
  10. Lipp the Gay Liberal

    Lipp the Gay Liberal Spartan Dawg
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    Thanks for reminding me you’re a homophobe too.
     
  11. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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    I have no read on Chris Illitch but apparently the Tigers are only one of two teams willing to commit to paying all employees full salaries and benefits past May 31. That’s awesome.
     
  12. Joe Louis

    Joe Louis no thank you turkish, i'm sweet enough
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  13. Brocktoon

    Brocktoon Well-Known Member
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    the beat writers all seem to think that the first pick is going to be Torkelson. There were multiple posts and articles all within a few hours of each other so that tells me they were all getting the same intel.
     
  14. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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    and they all speak very specifically about why. Sounds like Martin’s questions surrounding future position did him in.
     
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  15. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    Meh. Can’t go wrong with either. I’d rather have Martin, he has higher ceiling, but also the biggest floor. Avila just taking the safe pick in Torkelson.
     
  16. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    I really hope that's not true from the Tigers' perspective, but you're right about that talking point being out there. Fenech wrote Torkelson is more obvious a pick than Mize, which is insane to me.

    The notion that Torkelson > Martin because we know Torkelson will play the least valuable position on the defensive spectrum while Martin has questions about what more valuable position he will land at is hilariously stupid and I don't think the Tigers would pick Torkelson for that reason. I think local media is just stupid and that's all they can think of.
     
  17. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    The only impact I think the Tigers care about in terms of Martin's lack of position currently is that Torkelson is more likely to race through the minors and get to the big leagues before anyone else in the draft. Martin is going to take time to find a home and get defensive reps somewhere. Torkelson plays the easiest position on the diamond and will be able to do so at a big league level sooner than Martin probably will. And, on some level, I can understand the value for them with that thought process even if it's short sighted.
     
  18. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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    How does Torkelson’s bat compare with guys like Vaughn and Bart?
     
  19. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    Consensus seems that he and Vaughn are pretty similar at the plate. Torkelson has a bit more power, while Vaughn might be a bit more natural hitter.

    Torkelson and Vaughn are both significantly better than Bart at the plate, but then Bart doesn't have to be on their level at the plate to be more valuable. Some people really like Bart and would probably put him over Torkelson as a prospect, but I don't think that would be a majority opinion because Bart seemed a bit more divisive as a prospect (as catchers tend to be).
     
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  20. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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    If you had a best case scenario for what Torkelson becomes, what is it?
     
  21. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    If you think he's a top of the draft type player as a 1B, I would hope his ceiling is at least something like a .280/.400/.550 hitter and 40 HR power, with his peak seasons being higher in terms of OBP and SLG. Value wise, that's somewhere in the 5-6 WAR range unless the defense is terrible. In terms of his scouting report, I think that's doable.

    Pete Alonso last year was the top 1B in fWAR last year at 4.8 after hitting 53 HR and slashing .260/.358/.583. Torkelson I think is considered a better hitter with a good approach already, although sometimes that goes away in pro ball depending on how you handle breaking balls and such. No one is hitting 53 HR every year, but Torkelson should hit 40+ somewhat regularly.
     
  22. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    I think one of the more interesting questions about this draft is going to be how many guys are willing to go under slot in round 1. I don't think any player has ever signed for the full slot value of the #1 overall pick, but the money is going to be different this year with I believe only 10% of your bonus paid in 2020, and the rest coming in 21 and 22. If I'm the agent for Torkelson and Martin, I'm using that as a reason to not take a discount (or take a smaller one than normal).
     
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  23. nofatchildren

    nofatchildren Bull Moose Till I Die
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    Torkelson is gonna get compared to Goldschmidt and maybe Alonso due to the R/R 1B/DH profile. He's a smaller guy than Alonso and Goldschmidt, but Goldschmidt probably doesn't hit for as much power as he could if his swing was a bit better, so it seems like Goldschmidt type numbers would be a solid best case scenario.
     
  24. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    The problem with that is Goldschmidt is a GG defender and elite base runner who once stole 32 bases. For Torkelson to be #1 overall worthy, he's going to need to hit better than Goldschmidt because he's not on his level as an athlete (no one is at 1B, which is what made Goldshmidt so valuable).

    The comp for me feels like a R/R version of Rizzo, but with more pop and hopefully a little more OBP. I think that's realistic.
     
  25. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    Isn’t the draft still in early June?
     
  26. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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    Nothing has been decided yet. They don’t even know how many rounds the draft will be yet.
     
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  27. ~ taylor ~

    ~ taylor ~ Boom... head shot.
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    Of course the Tigers play in a park that dampens power and rewards speed, which they somehow still don't get.

    Compare Tork to Mark McGwire.
     
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  28. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    I agree to an extent, but I don't think you can win today without hitting a bunch of HRs so you have to find power somewhere. I also don't think Comerica robs as much power as people think. Cabrera hit 44 HRs twice and 37 or 38 three more times. JD hit 38 one year.

    I'm on record numerous times as to what who I would pick, but I'm not really worried about Torkelson making a significant impact as a hitter if he's the pick.
     
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  29. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    MLB.com did an article comparing the two and talked to the old "anonymous mlb scouts and directors"

    29 of the people they polled picked Torkelson over Martin, 5 chose Martin and 1 called them too close to call. Some more quotes on the two in spoiler for length

    National League scouting director: "Torkelson is as Major League-ready as any player I've ever seen in my entire life with his bat. If you want to take him and put him in the Major Leagues right away like Bob Horner, you could. Everything he does in the batter's box is elite: his ability to take pitches, to walk, to hit for power, to hit for average. It's like watching a Major League player in college. He's as good a hitter as I've ever seen. Torkelson is like watching a No. 4 hitter on a Major League team in college." [Editor's note: Horner went No. 1 overall in 1978 and immediately won the NL Rookie of the Year award after homering 23 times in 89 games with the Braves.]

    American League executive: "It's a tough call, basically comes down to Frank Thomas or Mookie Betts. Torkelson is the Tyrannosaurus rex version of college power hitters in the last decade, while Martin is a WAR monster with multidimensional abilities. I normally prefer the all-around player, although for this exercise, I’m leaning toward the Big Tork!"

    NL scouting director: "I don't think it's close. It's Torkelson. Torkelson is one of the more prolific power hitters and hitters I've seen in a long time. I get he's a first baseman, but he's athletic for the position and his general athleticism speaks for what he can do. There's nothing wrong with his swing, his analytics are great, he checks every single box. When you combine that bat with that power, you get an elite offensive performer. He's a bigger, stronger, more athletic version of [last year's No. 3 overall pick] Andrew Vaughn."

    AL crosschecker: "Spencer Torkelson is the better prospect for me. It's a unique conversation because both of these guys are completely different players but I feel Torkelson has the most overall future value with his middle-of-the-order potential and, from a scouting side, a chance at 70 hit/70 power or even better [on the 20-80 scale]. Torkelson's athleticism gets discredited some for the situation he's in at Arizona State with an infield of four players who may get drafted high next month. If he was playing at a different school, he'd likely get more of an opportunity to show his versatility. He gets compared a lot to Andrew Vaughn, but for me there is much more defensive versatility with Torkelson's flexibility for his size and arm strength."

    AL scouting director: "While I understand Martin offers up more positional value, I'd have a hard time passing on Torkelson's bat. First and foremost, he has a natural feel to hit, and then there just happens to be plus-plus raw power attached. It's an advanced approach. We have seen him take two-strike sliders off the dish and deposit them into the right-field seats. Martin would likely go 1-1 in quite a few of our recent Drafts, but he's up against a monster this year."

    NL scouting director: "Torkelson would be 1, Martin would be 2. They're both very good players but Torkelson, man, it's big power with good hitting ability. He doesn't swing and miss much, he walks, he's the total package. It's a different bat. I don't see a bat close to his in the last few Drafts. Kris Bryant is probably the closest, but Torkelson has similar power with a shorter swing and less swing and miss. Martin doesn't have that same power or exit velocity. He's a good player, a center fielder who can run and do it all. I just think Torkelson is going to be an aircraft carrier, 'get on my back,' hitting .300-plus with 30 homers and an insane OPS."

    AL scouting director: "I’m a big Torkelson fan. I think he is a sure-thing Major League 2-4 hole hitter who will hit for OPS and power. His swing generates so much easy strength with a ridiculous amount of hard contact, and his excellent plate discipline is going to allow him to walk and hit home runs. His power is the type that allows him to produce home runs even when he doesn’t square it up. He has confidence and owns the batter's box -- the mentality of the great Major League hitters."
     
  30. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    That's good stuff. This thing is starting to sound like Miggy v. Trout to me in some ways, but if we're taking Torkelson I'm all for him being amazing.
     
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  31. ~ taylor ~

    ~ taylor ~ Boom... head shot.
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    I understand that you're not making a direct comparison, but Martin will likely never have the power or defensive abilities of Trout, so I'm trying to figure out a better pro comparison. Young Lou Whitaker?
     
  32. MG2

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    I actually think the comp made in the DetroitNole post of Mookie Betts is the most compelling to me. I don't think he'll ever have the defensive value anywhere that Betts has in RF, but Betts had a season where he won MVP and was 10+ fWAR despite "only" hitting 32 HR because his overall hitting ability is so good. That's really what I meant by the Trout/Cabrera thing.

    Back then, so much was made about defensive value and WAR and all that stuff that people acted like the decision was "do you want the hitter or the all around player up the middle?". In reality, Trout was every bit the hitter Cabrera was (some metrics would said even better), but that seemingly got lost in all the other stuff.

    I kind of see that happening here, too. So much is talked about like "do you want the power hitting 1B or the guy who can play a more valuable position?". In reality, Martin has been almost as good as (if not equal to) Torkelson at the plate in 2019 and to start this season. He just does it in a way that's not as obvious with all the HRs.
     
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  33. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    I think saying they have been equal at the plate is a slight stretch. Especially in the early parts of 2020 before season was canceled.

    In general I think you take the better overall player over the better power hitter, but I think scouts view Tork as more of a sure thing becoming an all star power hitter. Tork seems to be to scouts a potential generational power hitter, so I cant be mad if we pick him.
     
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  34. smeegsgreen

    smeegsgreen Big fan of Koalas
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    What’s the possibility of tork moving to OF?
     
  35. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    If he could have played another position, he would have in college. He’s a 1b
     
  36. smeegsgreen

    smeegsgreen Big fan of Koalas
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    Shit.

    is he a good fielding 1B? (Better than fat cow Miguel?)
     
  37. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    Anybody is better than that fat fuck. No reason to believe he won’t be an average fielder
     
  38. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    It's hard to judge either guy on small sample 2020 stuff, especially because I think Martin got hit by some pitches and was banged up and Torkelson had so many IBBs that it throws off stats (good and bad) in a weird way. It sucks we didn't get to see them in conference play.

    Martin's hitting ability and on-base skills are legit. He's very likely to be a higher BA and OBP guy in his career than Torkelson, and OBP is still the most important skill. If he's backing that up with 25-30 HR a year, that's an offensive monster. If he's not hitting for that much power, that's a really good, but probably not elite, hitter (see the Betts comp and his career to this point).

    If Torkelson is hitting .280 with 35+ HR every year, that's a franchise offensive player unless his plate discipline tanks (unlikely). If he's a .230-.250 hitter with 35-40 HR a year, that's more like Rhys Hoskins (a good, but not elite, hitter). It seems like a lot of scouts think he's the former, which if true I'm all in on.

    I'm not going to be mad if Tork is the pick. I'm not going to deny the stuff being written by people who actually scout this stuff for a living and have seen them both play far more than me. When I read some of it, though, I just wonder if people are sleeping on Martin's hitting ability, because I do think that's something people have a tendency to do with players who have that skill set. The lack of stats like wRC+ and wOBA in college ball hurts Martin here, IMO, because I think those stats would tell you how close they've been the last 1+ years.
     
  39. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    Sorry for how long these posts have been. I haven't been able to post about actual baseball things in a while.
     
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  40. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    Who does Emily Waldon like?
     
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  41. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    Whoever judges her less for eating entire pizzas.
     
  42. Tug

    Tug Well-Known Member
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    She wants the Tigers to take me #1
     
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  43. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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  44. ~ taylor ~

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    Write as much as you want. We don't have anything else going on.
     
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  45. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    Can’t wait for Avila to boost about our farm rankings after Torkelson bumps us up in the rankings. Yeah, you’re gonna move up by not promoting anyone, and finishing dead last and getting the first pick.
     
  46. ~ taylor ~

    ~ taylor ~ Boom... head shot.
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    That's how it works. You suck for a while and stock the system. If they signed good players from LA this would be a very standard rebuild.
     
  47. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    outside of Paredes and Skubal, our only good prospects are from picking #1, #5, #9, and soon to be #1 again. Yeah sucking ass and getting high draft picks is part of it, but you need to acquire you talent through trades and international signings as well. And by hitting on more than one draft pick outside of round 1
     
  48. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    I agree with this, although I will say that the top two international guys we're rumored to be signing seem very intriguing, and I'm happy that finally shifted their international process a couple years ago for the better by chasing higher priority talent (last year obviously is way up in the air based on a guy no on has really seen).

    If they become more successful in that process moving forward, that solves a lot of their problems.
     
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