Detroit Tigers Thread: #FreeMize

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Celemo, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    The $20k limit for undrafted guys (after only 5 rounds) is a joke and I feel really bad for all the college kids who are going to be screwed over by this one way or another.
     
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  2. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    yeah that was good to hear. Top 14 guy, and the other guy was ranked 27th. Lot better than that fucker we signed last Year that nobody heard of
     
  3. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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    Details on these guys?
     
  4. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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  5. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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  6. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    Depends on whether they get a discount on the first pick, I would think.

    I wouldn't be surprised if it's harder to find a discount at the top because of how the bonuses will be structured, but I would bet you can find a deal in the 4th or 5th rounds on college kids who just want to be drafted and take less than normal because the alternative is $20k. The whole thing is going to be a mess.

    We need an impact bat at the top, but could see us going for pitchers in the three picks we have between the 2nd and 3rd rounds because, after the pitchers we have in AA, we have nothing behind them.
     
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  7. ~ taylor ~

    ~ taylor ~ Boom... head shot.
    Donor TMB OG

    Yes, the trading for prospects is another component and the Tigers have been poor at it. You're right. Infuriatingly, we have entered an era where teams aren't mortgaging the future the way they used to, and Avila seems bad at it even with that qualifier.
     
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  8. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    I think Avila's failure there is an entire organizational failure that starts with ownership. Part of Avila's problem is he's asking for too much (probably because ownership hasn't wanted to intentionally tank), and then Avila's also constantly been seeking players who are closer to the bigs in these deals instead of the best talent they can get. The best player they got in any of Avila's trades is going to end up being Paredes, and it's not a coincidence that Paredes was still in low A ball when they got him. Teams aren't giving you ready made guys in AA/AAA anymore, and that seems like the only thing Avila's been targeting for the last 3-4 years.
     
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  9. Brocktoon

    Brocktoon Well-Known Member
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    MLB trade rumors has been reviewing how top prospects ended up being traded and pretty much every time they were a low A guys that weren't even the primary piece in the trade. Adames and Tatis, Jr. were prime examples of this.

    If ownership would have allowed Avila to focus on accumulating talent lottery tickets that were far away from the big leagues, they'd be in much better position today.
     
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  10. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    Yeah, it's just a bad combination of a lack of leadership from ownership, a GM who doesn't really know what he's doing, and a GM/front office structure that is either too afraid or just not confident enough in its ability to scout the lower levels of the minors to take advantage of that kind of stuff. I think Avila wants young guys he can bring to the bigs earlier for job security, but I also think he just doesn't have the balls to plant the flag on guys and say "I don't care if he takes 3 years to get here, it's going to be worth it so I'm doing this."
     
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  11. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    I’m assuming we could have gotten Kyle Tucker for Verlander back in 2017? He kind of fits the profile of the type of guy you’re talking about.
     
  12. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    Don't think they could have gotten Tucker then. He was a recent top 5 pick and from the same draft Cameron was in. Based on all the reports from the months leading up to that deal, it's kind of miraculous we got what we did at that time. And, in fairness to Avila on that one, all those guys were in the lower minors when we got them. Perez I think had just gotten to AA for a couple starts. Rogers and Cameron were both in A ball.
     
  13. Joe Louis

    Joe Louis no thank you turkish, i'm sweet enough
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  14. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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    Kiley McDaniel

    This is the chalk pick in the industry, as Tork has done everything he could do since the day he stepped on campus in Tempe, Arizona, but there's an interesting scenario where he doesn't go No. 1.

    Torkelson and Vanderbilt second baseman Austin Martin are the consensus top two prospects in this draft and they're both represented by Scott Boras. I normally don't mention who is advising draftees before the draft because in the past it could affect a player's college eligibility, but the rules have since changed and it's very relevant in this specific instance. Texas A&M left-handed pitcher Asa Lacy is represented by a smaller outfit.

    [​IMG]
    MLB draft rankings: The top 100-plus players available in 2020 and beyond


    The Tigers have made it known for a while that their top draft tendencies are for SEC performance and power arms. Only Lacy fits that type to a T. Some clubs think he's the second-best talent in the draft, or even a coin flip to be the top prospect. This is a scenario where the price and team tendencies becomes more important.

    In this draft specifically, fewer high school players will sign and thus the team with the most money to spend on their second and third picks holds even more power than usual, with a larger pool of players to choose from, and another group that may be able to ratchet up their demands to get past the first round to where their highest bonus payday could be.

    The Tigers' rebuild is going fine so far, but they need bulk impact talent, not just a few more players. If Detroit has Lacy evaluated close to Torkelson -- which isn't clear yet, but it's certainly possible -- there's a compelling case they could save some money for later picks, hold the hammer to choose from all but a few prep prospects and not take much, if any, downgrade in talent at 1-1.

    This decision will be influenced heavily by Boras and how he positions Torkelson and Martin. The super-agent's past suggests he won't give clubs a specific number but will be shooting for precedent-setting prices for what he believes are precedent-setting talents. That evaluation isn't a universal view in the industry. Torkelson is an excellent prospect, but industry trends are moving away from premium valuations on any first baseman that hasn't already proven it in the big leagues, due to the lack of margin for error in the profile. I've been specifically told that multiple clubs that rely on advanced models effectively move later first-round first-base types down a dozen picks or more from where their scouting reports would slot them just to account for this market/trade value consideration.

    Torkelson projects as an above-average hitter with an above-average walk rate and 70-grade, 30-plus homer power. He can be passable in left field, maybe a hair below average defensively, and scouts see him turning into a Pete Alonso type of player, but with a little more athleticism and defensive value. Tork is also generally seen as better than last year's third overall pick and fellow destroyer of the Pac-12, White Sox 1B Andrew Vaughn, a former Cal Bear. Torkelson would fit in the late-teens to 20s in my top 100 prospects. I'm hearing all four of my projected top four picks are still in the mix for Detroit.
     
  15. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    Boras repping both Torkelson and Martin is bad luck for us in several ways. I can't see us picking anyone besides them, but that complicates things in the other 5 picks.
     
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  16. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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  17. Constant

    Constant Meh
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    Sounds even more exciting than the usual MLB draft!!!
     
  18. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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  19. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    Aren’t we still paying that fat fuck Fielder?
     
  20. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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    This is from Stavenhagen on The Athletic. I feel like I haven’t read this before but what do I know?

    Many in the scouting community believe Vanderbilt infielder/outfielder Austin Martin’s defense is not all it is cracked up to be — probably not a shortstop in the majors. And though the idea of Martin — another candidate to go 1-1 — playing center isn’t unfounded, would Martin really be a plus center fielder? There are doubts, and some think Martin is best suited for second base. So if Torkelson can be even close to an average left fielder, then suddenly the argument of Martin being far more valuable from a WAR perspective loses some steam.
     
  21. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    Well no shit. The guy couldn’t even play SS in college. They moved his ass to the OF.
     
  22. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
    Donor

    According to Keith Law, Martin had issues with his arm and throwing in general during the short season this year. He says that's why they moved him from 3B (where he started the year) to CF over the last few weeks. I think when people bring up "fielding" with him, that could be what they mean. Also, the difference in value between 2B and CF isn't very significant. 2B, 3B and CF are all pretty similar on the positional value spectrum. I never read anything prior to this year that suggested he couldn't stick at 3B, either, so the arm thing might have some merit.

    Arm stuff with baseball players is weird and seems like it happens out of nowhere sometimes. Jo Adell threw low 90s as a pitcher in HS, and then suddenly his SR year he had no arm and now is considered to have a well below average arm for an OF. Not sure if something happened with Martin or if it was just a minor shoulder thing that didn't keep him out of the line-up, but hurt him defensively.
     
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  23. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    No clue if this guy's source is real or not. At the very least, seems like he's speaking with too much authority/conviction when he says things that will or won't happen.

     
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  24. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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  25. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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  26. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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    One week until Torkelson day
     
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  27. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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  28. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    Seems like any thought of us taking Lacy at a discount is gone at this point.

    The draft is going to be so awkward if they don't come to an agreement with the players to play this year before Tuesday.
     
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  29. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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    What happened with Lacy?
     
  30. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    You mean before this? Or why it's gone now?
     
  31. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Playing football during Covid is a bad idea imo
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    gone now
     
  32. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    Guessing it's just because we're all in on Torkelson and at this point don't seem scared in and way of Boras.
     
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  33. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    Fucking Henning.



     
  34. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    If Torkelson plays a better CF than Martin, Martin is nowhere close to "once-a-decade good".

    Hell, if Torkelson is better than Martin, then how can Martin be "once-a-decade good"?
     
  35. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    [​IMG]


     
    #9136 Vinegar Strokes, Jun 9, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2020
  36. Constant

    Constant Meh
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    Where's COVID when you need it?
     
  37. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    imagine Avila trying to recruit players. He’s delusional.

    After a 48-hour dead period immediately after the final pick Thursday, Avila and the Tigers will, in essence, turn into college football coaches in recruiting season, trying to entice players to join their organization.

    “We have a recruiting tool,” Avila said, not willing to be specific. “We have a message, and our message is that we feel we’ve built this infrastructure here with the best technology, the best analytics, best instructors and we have a good track record of developing players.
     
  38. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    From Henning again...

    There is no chance he gets close to slot, right? Even Mize signed for like $500k below slot value. This is the. 2nd or 3rd time he’s brought this up. The catcher the O’s took last year was about $400k below slot.
     
  39. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    The $100k max in 2020 for every player probably lends itself to a decent argument for more money total.

    Boras also reps Martin, which means they can't play one against the other. My guess is it will still be under slot a bit, but not by much, and Boras ends up getting something like $8.1 or whatever the new record for a bonus in this era would be. Boras is big on setting records like that.
     
  40. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    I guess it doesn’t really matter. It’s not like we’d do anything with the slot savings in round 2. We did that in 2018 and ended up with Parker Meadows. Went under slot a few years before that and ended up with Reynaldo Rivera and Sam McMillan.

    Tigers have more leverage than you think though. Not saying they would, but since there is no season for Tork to develop, they could theoretically punt on the draft, and end up with #2 pick next year, and maybe even the #1 pick as well, if MLB uses some weighted average to determine 2021 draft order.
     
  41. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    If you don't sign a pick, you lose that entire slot bonus. In that scenario, rather than paying him full slot or close to it, you lose the pick and whatever development time he has in the next 12 months, and you're not gaining anything in this draft from it.

    If you know going in you're going to have to use all/most of the slot money to sign him, you can plan the rest of your draft accordingly based on how much you saved (or didn't). If your plan is to draft him and play hardball, you can't really plan the rest of your draft around it because you don't know how much you're saving, anyway. And, if you play hardball and lose while also taking an over slot guy in round 2 or 3, you've now fucked yourself out of 2 picks.
     
  42. BleedinGreen

    BleedinGreen Detroit, Michigan State, and Celery
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    So we're all good w/ Torkelson? Seems like the high floor guy. Just trying to figure out how enraged I should be.
     
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  43. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    I think most of us prefer Martin on this board. Tork would be 2nd choice, but is still really good player. I think Lacey will be best player from this draft, but Tigers can’t take another pitcher.
     
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  44. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    I'd still prefer Martin, but Tork is fine. No one should be enraged by the pick. He's at worst a top 3 pick in this draft, and in that scenario the top 3 (Tork, Martin and Lacy) are all about the same.
     
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  45. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    I’ve seen Martin going 4th in most mocks. If Tigers offered him and Boras, the full slot value of the 3 rd pick, do you think he’d take it? That’s about $1mil below slot.
     
  46. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    I guess that depends on how Martin and Boras are working together at this point. I don't think Boras would do something like that, though. He's selling out one of his clients while also not getting full value for the other. I could see him getting something over slot for Martin if he lands at 4, too.
     
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  47. BleedinGreen

    BleedinGreen Detroit, Michigan State, and Celery
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    My buddy went to Vandy so he's been talking up Martin non-stop but most of the scouting reports seem to think Torkelson is the sure thing. That said, he also thought Pedro Alvarez was going to be in the HOF so, grain of salt.
     
  48. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Dantonio
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    That’s what I’m worried Torkelson turns into. Almost same exact profile, except I think Alvarez played 3rd in college.
     
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  49. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
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    Historically, pretty much every Vandy hitter he may have talked up over the years has not panned out. Vandy hitters don't have a good history for reasons no one really seems to understand other than just luck of the draw, probably.
     
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