We don't have the guts to make that hire, but I'm glad he's at least high enough on the list to get interviewed.
I see you’re trying to jinx us into hiring him. I would put him #1 on my list. Anybody Dodgers related is great in my eyes
Yes. I think even Avila knows his rebuilding racket doesn't have much longer before the fan base revolts and Ilitch might be forced to actually do something with his baseball team. I have zero expectations he takes a "risk" on hiring someone with ideas and no experience. I think his dream is Hinch, but if Hinch goes elsewhere I fully expect them to go with experience and end up with Fredi Gonzalez or Mike Redmond (both with long standing ties with Avila from the Marlins days).
It's not a jinx. I have zero faith in this FO to do anything creative or risky, especially when they might actually have to produce results at some point in the near future.
If that’s the case then hopefully they pick a retread and lose 90 games a year his first two years then clean out
And I have no clue if Lombard would be any good. He's never managed before and it's a tough job. Hiring him would definitely be a risk. I just like everything about him based on what I've read, and it seems a lot of Dodger players and fans feel the same way.
I should note I didn't realize he had managed a rookie ball team for Boston for a few years to start his coaching career a decade ago. Maybe that's enough to convince them to give him a shot.
From Badler at BA, who is really good at the international free agent stuff. I think I talked about some of these guys before the July 2 signing period was pushed back (it's now January 15). Santana and Bastidas are both in the MLB Pipeline top 30. I hadn't read anything on Castillo before this, which is interesting because he's right about us never giving out bonus $$ to pitchers in this market.
How does the international top 30 usually coincide with the top 100 list? Like is an international top 30 prospect usually a top 100 drafted prospect? Sorry if I'm wording his weird.
Hard to really describe the difference. I think the absolute top International guys (the top 2-5 guys a lot of years) compare somewhat well to first round picks. Beyond that, it's a crap shoot and you're banking on tools. The age difference is just so massive, and baseball is so hard to predict. We have two prime examples of that. Torkelson and Mize weren't drafted out of HS (or, if I have that wrong, neither was considered worth the money to sign them out of HS if they were). Three years later, they're both consensus #1 overall picks. Those three years are enormous for young baseball players to develop. Now compare that to these LA kids, who are generally getting ranked and agreeing to deals based on their performances in workout settings and games at academies at age 14 and 15 (even though they can't sign until 16). The results are real in terms of the teams that commit the money to Latin America. There's a correlation of risking the $$ on those kids and getting big time guys (Wander Franco, Vlad Jr., etc.). I'm glad we're starting to push more into doing that kind of stuff than our previous strategy of spreading everything out. But these kids are so young that the variance is huge along with it.
MLBTR arb projections using various potential formats because of the uncertainty coming off a 60-game season. Would expect most of these guys back at those prices, although Boyd is high. Matthew Boyd – $5.5MM / $7.8MM / $6.2MM Jeimer Candelario – $1.7MM / $3.3MM / $1.7MM Jose Cisnero – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K Buck Farmer – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM Michael Fulmer – $2.8MM / $3.2MM / $2.9MM Niko Goodrum – $1.6MM / $2.5MM / $1.6MM Joe Jimenez – $1.0MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM Jacoby Jones – $2.2MM / $2.8MM / $2.0MM Daniel Norris – $3.0MM / $3.4MM / $3.1MM
I would assume it's pretty high. Other orgs might walk away from Boyd or Fulmer at those prices, but we have 1 long term financial commitment moving forward (Cabrera) and nothing certain in the rotation next year. If anything keeping all those guys juices the payroll a bit with one-year deals and makes it less obvious they've gone cheap if they decide not to spend this winter.
I’d be on the fence with Jones and Goodrum. Reyes and W Castro won those jobs for opening day starters IMO
I don't think they should go into the season planning to start Niko or JaCoby (and not because of Reyes, who I think sucks). But we're talking about a combined $4-5m between them. Even if they're a utility guy and 4th OF, that's not terrible and it's two guys on your roster you don't need to replace with someone else. I think JaCoby starts in CF on Opening Day because they like him, though. Only reason he won't is if Avila shows some balls for the first time in his tenure and completely replaces the OF via trade and FA. I don't think any of us think that's happening.
Why do you think Reyes sucks? I mean he’s not an everyday CF on a playoff team but he’s played well given the opportunity
He has no pop, little plate discipline and his hitting success is tied entirely to BABIP. He's not useless, but I don't think he's a every day CF defensively and he doesn't have anywhere near the pop necessary to play a corner spot consistently.
The more I've thought about this team heading into the offseason, the more respect I've gained for Avila. He's in the midst of pulling off one of the most remarkable cons in pro sports history, and people should study what he's done here. This is going to get long, but here is the Avila Rebuilding Racket, as far as I can tell... 1. Tell the world you're rebuilding over and over and over again. - Once you tell people you're rebuilding, they stop caring about results because you're supposed to lose anyway. And, as long as you're rebuilding, they can't fire you. No GM gets fired in the middle of a rebuild because you have to see the process through. Avila got an extension in the middle of a four-year stretch where the Tigers had the worst record in MLB. 2. Do nothing in free agency. - Since signing Justin Upton in January of 2016, Avila/Ilitch have not signed a single FA for longer than 1 year or more than $6.1m. Owners get mad when you spend their money trying to do something and fail. So don't do anything and the owner will accept it. 3. Don't trade anyone unless you're getting a significant win or it's the trade deadline. - If you trade someone under team control and you lose the trade, people can say you made a mistake. If you never trade anyone unless you're getting 200% of the value or it's the deadline on a guy set to become a FA, you can't make a mistake anyone can hold against you. Especially since you never have to acknowledge the offers you turned down and can simply leak they weren't true. 4. Don't rock the boat in the draft. - Since you're rebuilding and you suck, you get top 5 picks. The same people who rank the top prospects and organizations every year are also ranking draft prospects. As long as you don't rock the boat and take who those people say you should, you're guaranteed big leaps in farm system rankings. 5. Let the prospects sit for a while. - The longer your prospects are in the minors and don't graduate, the better your system rankings will be because it's all addition. This tides you over with your boss when the frustration on the outside sets in. 6. Don't call the prospects up at one time. Spread them out over months/years. - Once all your big gun prospects are up, people will start to judge your performance. So you can't call them all up at once. You spread it out, giving people a taste, but always leaving that extra hope in the minors as what is still to come. The Tigers would seem mean to a lot of people if they fired Avila now because all these guys are on the fringe of getting to the big leagues. Torkelseon and Greene aren't going to make the team to start the season. I don't think they'll be up by the break, either. They're already leaking to media that Greene could start in High A ball next year because they don't want to skip levels with him. That means that Avila will get through 6 seasons and almost certainly get to 7. We'll see the pitchers this year, but they still can't fire him because how can they do that with Greene and Torkelson ready in 22? In conclusion, Avila has pulled off a con where he's almost guaranteed to get to a 7th season, and the only thing he will have proven during that time is his capability of being the GM of the worst team in baseball over an extended period. It's one of the most remarkable things I've ever seen. Millen got 7 years, but he tore it down like 5 times and Ford just didn't want to fire anyone. This is next level stuff.
Awesome stuff MG2 . Great job. I’ve been saying it for years. Fuck Avila. He’s got the best job security in baseball. An owner that doesn’t give a shit. Avila just shows Ilitch MLB Pipeline ratings in his annual review every year.
I feel stupid for falling for the trade/free agents thing as much as I did earlier in the tenure. I just couldn't get a handle on Avila's "can't make bad moves if you never make any moves" strategy.
Lynn Henning is live tweeting some Instructional League games from Lakeland if people are interested. Most of it is Henning-style puff tweets in between all his political retweets.
Why couldn’t they get better? Detroit is a huge baseball town and they have a ton of high upside prospects. Bowden predicted them to get Hinch
I know nothing about Grifol, just like I know nothing about any of the guys I'm stumping for. I'm concerned the Miami/Avila connection might lead them to give benefit of the doubt there, and KC is far from the most numbers oriented regimes, but SF is very statistically inclined and he was a finalist for that job. I'd certainly prefer him (or any other first timer they interview) over any retread that isn't Hinch, and even Hinch I'm still somewhat queasy about.
He’s like Plan C option. If we hire him, it’s because Avila/Ilitch were too cheap to get the guy they wanted, or the guy took a better job.
Hinch, Cora, Renteria would all be better options. I’d rather take a shot with a young guy like Thames than Grifol too.
I don't know if we have a legit shot at Cora. Hinch is a tier of above in terms of credentials. Renteria is not. I would be much more annoyed at him than Grifol. I really like the pedigree of Lombard and Thames, but Thames is probably the biggest risk of them all. I have no clue how he'd do and I can't get mad if he doesn't get hired. Grifol's credentials certainly aren't worse than any of the other first-time options.
Gammons tweeted (at least I think he did) that Mark Kotsay interviewed. Woodbery from Mlive reported yesterday that Will Venable also interviewed. I believe this is the list that has been reported to have already interviewed so far... Lloyd McClendon George Lombard Marcus Thames Don Kelly Pedro Grifol Will Venable Mark Kotsay Names that have been mentioned as potential candidates who have not been reported to have interviewed yet... Mike Redmond Fredi Gonzalez Vance Wilson AJ Hinch (can't until WS is over) Alex Cora (see Hinch) I don't think there's any way McClendon gets the job (I hope, at least). I'd prefer no Redmond or Gonzalez, but they haven't managed in a while so I don't know what they'd be. I like what I've read on pretty much all the potential first timers.
If it’s not Hinch, I hope it’s Thames or Grifol. Thames is purely because he was my favorite Tiger. Grifol sounds like a great communicator, and someone who really understands the importance of analytics.
All of them seem to be pretty highly regarded as people/communicators. As far as analytics go, on some level that war is over and I'm not terribly concerned about it any more. Fredi was as old school as it gets when he was managing. Now he's working for the Orioles as bench coach, and they're trying to be Houston East. Whoever they hire is going to do what the org tells them, for better or worse. I'm still kind of on team Lombard just because from everything I've read he has the most dynamic personality out of the group and I think that matters.
Lombard Thames Hinch Grifol McClendon in order of preference. Anybody else I wouldn’t like (especially fanboy Don Kelly)