Del Castillo sounds intriguing but it seems like we would end up having to DH him since him sticking at C seems unlikely. If that’s the case, I can’t imagine a scenario where the pick isn’t a SP or Lawlar. The caveat I guess would be going under slot to take a prep guy like House maybe?
I don’t get excited by him. It seems like he’s just rated as high as he is because he will stick at SS, but he doesn’t seem to have any exceptional traits.
I think the wild card here is we're at the point where even Avila knows the heat is going to be on him to get results and whether that pushes them away from taking a HS bat that is going to take a minimum of 3 years. That should never play into anything in the MLB draft, but this is the same front office that for years has only wanted prospects in AA and above in trade talks for the same reason. We're also not an org that traditionally goes HS up the middle players. For years our thing was SEC pitchers, and there's three potential top three pitchers from SEC schools here.
I disagree on the "exceptional traits" things. He's a big kid who is a smooth athlete who everyone says can stick at SS and makes contact against good pitching now. That's pretty much everything I want. If he was a hockey prospect, he's like Raymond. There's a lot of value in being good at everything but maybe not elite at anything in baseball. Especially when you're a SS with the frame to develop some pop as you get older.
This is a good breakdown of Rocker/Leiter from Kiley McDaniel this morning. Spoiler In last week's early 2021 MLB draft rankings, Vanderbilt right-handers Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker were second and third, respectively, on the list -- and the top two pitching prospects on our board. I had a chance to see the two pitch back-to-back in both ends of a doubleheader on Sunday in Nashville against Georgia State, so here's a deep dive on both prospects and what could cause their stock to rise (or fall) heading into the 2021 MLB draft starting July 11 in Atlanta. Kumar Rocker Rocker was an elite prospect for years in high school, hitting the mid-90s as a sophomore and coming out of the gates in his showcase summer in contention to be selected in the top half of the first round. He was unique with his defensive lineman-like build (his father Tracy was an Outland Trophy-winning defensive tackle at Auburn, a third-round NFL draft pick, and is now the defensive line coach for the Eagles), but otherwise had the traits you'd expect in an elite, power-prep pitcher. In his draft spring, he sat 93-97 and hit 98 mph while flashing a plus two-plane breaking ball, but how his build and command would age was still a long-term question. Accounts differ, but his bonus expectations seemed to be in the $4 million or more range (i.e., top ten pick money) though the teams with that kind of bonus pool weren't quite convicted enough to pull the trigger on taking him out of high school. This was in part because Rocker's last prep outing was a playoff loss to fellow top pitching prospect Cole Wilcox's prep team, when Rocker was on shorter-than-normal rest and worked 90-93 mph with 50- or 55-grade stuff and fringe command. This was a scary glimpse into what pro ball could look like for clubs wary of how Rocker's command would play with lesser stuff and his effectiveness on shorter rest. It didn't help that Wilcox hit 99 mph in this matchup on the same rest. Rocker then became famous down the stretch of his freshman year at Vanderbilt in 2019. He struck out 19 in a Super Regional no-hitter against Duke en route to helping Vandy win the national title in a College World Series where he won both of his starts and earned CWS Most Outstanding Player honors. He was obviously executing at a high level in that stretch but was shakier in the brief 2020 season and early in 2021. In my look, he sat 93-97 and hit 98 mph with his four-seam fastball, often used up in the zone with his best secondary pitch, that two-plane slider at 83-86 mph, often buried to his glove side low and off the plate to right-handed hitters. He has also added an 87-90 mph cutter, used mostly on his arm side, in place of his shelved changeup. Rocker doesn't get much swing-and-miss on his fastball, so he's relying on his breaking pitches more than you'd like to see from him in pro ball. Chris Archer (and others) have made this work for a while, but it isn't the sort of approach you're looking for at the top of the draft. I'd project Rocker's control (throwing it over the plate) as league average (50 on the 20-80 scale) which is fine for a pitcher with plus stuff, but his command (executing to specific locations) is below average (45). He tends to throw each pitch in the same/optimal location, but isn't throwing it in a cup, in part because of head movement and audible grunts on half of his pitches in the first few innings. Typically when scouts have to project command to improve with an elite draft prospect, they're looking at a physically projectable, somewhat thin pitcher who will fill out and continue gaining body control. This all makes Rocker a challenge to project, given his lack of direct physical comparables. I'd grade his fastball as a 60, his slider as a 55 to 60 depending on location/consistency, and his cutter is a 55. There's plenty here for a No. 3 or even No. 2 starter with some improvements in these aforementioned areas. It's a double-edged sword. Scouts are comfortable with Rocker due to years of history but are also more skeptical of him improving on these concerns since he's been a pretty similar pitcher the last few years outside of that hot run late in 2019. There's also a bit of contrarianism and what-have-you-done-for-me-lately in scouting, and Rocker hasn't been up to his late 2019 standards in 2020, 2021 or the scrimmages between. Since basically every pitcher starts losing arm speed in their mid-20s, the question with Rocker is if his command improves as his raw stuff slowly degrades. There are data points suggesting he may not, but he also hasn't been forced by his competition level to do that yet. Given the raw stuff, track record, and solid health, it's hard to imagine Rocker gets out of the top five-to-seven picks, but going toward the back end of that range is more of a discussion amongst high level scouts than most draft fans would think. His performance in SEC play, particularly contrasted with Leiter, will say a lot about his draft stock within that tight pick range. Jack Leiter Leiter also has a famous father, former Mets standout lefty, Al Leiter, and also was a nationally regarded prep prospect with a long scouting track record. On the summer showcase circuit, Leiter worked mostly in the low-90s, using a knockout plus curveball as his best secondary pitch -- but with inconsistent command. In his draft spring, he started sitting in the mid-90s for stretches, but his command still came and went. Leiter, like Rocker, also had a high, unclear signability number that clubs didn't appear to ever come close to meeting, surely influenced by him being older for his prep class, making him draft-eligible again in just two years at Vanderbilt. Leiter looked improved in his short 2020 freshman season, maintaining that mid-90s velocity from his draft spring, and benefitting from Vanderbilt's progressive approach to pitching that's well suited to his repertoire. In my look, Leiter's four-seam fastball sat from 93-97 and hit 99 mph, and he relied more on a new 83-86 mph slider against Georgia State's righty-heavy lineup than his 78-80 mph curveball, which plays better versus lefties. Leiter also appears to have shelved his changeup like Rocker, but it was always a tertiary option for him in high school. Leiter, like Rocker, also largely works up with his backspinning fastball (grades as a future 65 for me), buries his curveball (I'd like to see more, but probably a 60 or 65), and works in and around the zone with his slider (a solid 55 that plays a key role giving a different look). I saw more variation in Leiter's locations, particularly how he used both sides of the plate with his slider which helped his fastball play better as well. He also needs to improve his command a bit, but that's also easier to do with a more traditionally-built athlete with a shorter college track record and a slightly cleaner delivery. It may be unfair, but Leiter has some helpful recent comps in Walker Buehler and Max Meyer, who both have similar builds, repertoires and approaches to pitching. Contrasting this with Rocker's recent form and lack of comps, there's probably a little bit of bad luck in the current consensus to preferring Leiter -- but there will be some substance to it if things continue like this for both of them for another month. Leiter's trajectory of adding an element to his game every six months or so suggests there's more coming from him developmentally between now and draft time. SEC play this year will also be key for Leiter, mostly because he hasn't faced lineups like he'll see in the conference many times. What we need to see from here You can probably see why I, and the majority of scouts I've spoken with who have seen both Rocker and Leiter, lean to Leiter. It's easier to picture him improving over the next few years. I think you can also see why this is a close race right now. If Leiter gets shelled a couple times and Rocker holds serve and makes marginal improvements with consistent performances to match the moment, then Rocker probably goes in the first couple of picks like everyone was guessing almost two years ago. Even if that's not how it plays out, it only takes one team deciding either is the better option to pick. Both of them benefit from a weak college hitter class and the best college pitcher competition coming from LSU righty Jaden Hill, who needs to both stay healthy for a full season and prove he can perform in the SEC as a weekend starter. It would take some time for him to jump over the Vandy Boys.
I don’t think that was too impressive at all. He looked slow and looked like he was trying to not make a mistake vs just playing ball
Thanks for the updates. We might as well have hope for drafting a future all star vs being miserable watching this shit team #thanksavlia
I’ll be keeping track of Leiter, Rocker, Lawlar, Hill, Mayer, Del Castillo, and Madden up until July. Good chance one of those guys will be a Tiger. Current Vinegar Big Board Lawlar Leiter Mayer Rocker Hill
I could see Avila being persuaded to take a high school. Only 18 years old, he could be in the MLB Pipeline top 100 an additional 2 years compared to a college kid.
Which is weird, because the talk when a few years back was that he could field but hadn't hit yet. Kind of seems like he's just never advanced with the glove in the last 2-3 years from where he was, which is disappointing. From what I've seen I'm kind of scared for our pitching staff if we throw him out there at SS every day.
I don't expect this guy to ever become anything, but I would be happy if we kept him over Harold Castro or some of our other utility guys who will never do anything.
I think it's mainly settled at this point. C - Ramos, Greiner/Rogers/Haase IF - Cabrera, Candelario, Schoop, W Castro, Goodrum, Paredes/H Castro/Nunez/Baddoo (pick 2) OF - Grossman, Jones, Mazara, Reyes SP - Boyd, Fulmer, Turnbull, Urena, Skubal, Mize/Teheran RP - Jimenez, B Garcia, Farmer, Cisnero, Soto, Norris, Alexander/Teheran My guess is the winners of those battles will be... Rogers Paredes/Baddoo (who is a OF, but I listed him with the IF) Mize Teheran I wonder if they might start Skubal or Mize in the pen because we're dumb and would do that kind of thing over telling Urena to kick rocks while eating that salary. Or cutting Teheran (which we could do to avoid paying that $$).
Stavenhagen mentioned in his predictions that it’s not inconceivable we take seven starters but not use a seven man rotation. I suppose having days where the plan is to double up on guys would make sense. Especially with the younger arms.
I'm hoping that Hinch brings a level of urgency to those proceedings that Gardenhire didn't (probably because he didn't care). Avila seems perfectly fine continually kicking the can down the road with all these guys, and it's killing us. We need to find out what we have with Paredes, Castro, Mize and Skubal, especially. Starting Urena or Teheran over them for any reason is just dumb to me. Manning will be on that list by the end of May, too. Possibly sooner for me. It's absurd that it's 2021 and they're still acting like they don't know what they have in JaCoby, Jeimer, Reyes, Boyd and Fulmer. This is year 4-5 for some of those guys and they still don't know. That's what happens when you tell the players the results don't matter and there's zero urgency to ever do anything.
Hinch seems like he’s going to win Illitch over to the point where Hinch ultimately plays a part in getting Al fired. That could just be Tigers fan fiction I want to write though.
I think Hinch is going to play it safe there because of the hole he's coming out of. He doesn't need that on his resume. I think he'll try to push Avila into being more aggressive at some point, and we'll see how Al responds. The reality is that Avila's not going anywhere until Greene and Torkelson are up. It sucks and I hate it, but that's just how it is. Ilitch doesn't care enough about the Tigers to be in tune with the fan base on this.
Imagine being a sports team owner and not caring. I guess we’ll never understand because we’re not in that tax bracket.
Unfortunately, that's going to be the case more and more in the future. The days of the local pizza guy buying a team for $20M or whatever and running it like a fan are over. There have always been bad/cheap owners, but now that they're all worth over $1B this is the road we're traveling.
Jones is going to be 29 at the beginning of May and basically under club control until he's 32. Boyd is 31 in April and he's older than Teheran and Urena. They're past their peak. The other 3 are at least younger and maybe have some development left or have an injury they may recover from. Maybe not Jeimer.
This organization is going to waste having 3 starters among the Top 25 prospects in baseball, isn't it?
And two more hitters in top 25, plus young promising hitters in Castro and Paredes plus whoever we take 3rd this year. We should be in good shape but I don't trust them to actually turn it around