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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Celemo, Apr 9, 2015.
I thought that Law breakdown was pretty fair and more pleasant than normal for his Tigers analysis.
McDaniel on the draft
1 (3): Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK)
CB-A (32): Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
2 (39): Izaac Pacheco, SS, Friendswood HS (TX)
3 (74): Dylan Smith, RHP, Alabama
4 (104): Tyler Mattison, RHP, Bryant University
The Tigers' rebuild is going pretty well on the strength of hitting on their recent top-10 picks but doing just OK on the picks outside of the first round, though last year's second pick Dillon Dingler is breaking that trend.
Jobe is risky due to his demographic but might be the best prep pitching prospect in years. I like the aggressive bet on upside and confidence in their evaluation, but all four prep shortstops were there, and I would've taken all of them over Jobe. Detroit has made some strides in the pitch design arena, and Madden was a good value at No. 32 (I'm assuming for over slot), but I'm not sure they're the best organization to figure out how to optimize a pitcher who will probably need to morph a bit into a sinker/slider mid-rotation type; it'll be a good barometer for where their pitching development is.
Pacheco has a long track record of hitting, with some power and hot corner defense, and probably would have been drafted in the next dozen picks if the Tigers didn't take him at No. 39. Smith is a solid value as an upside college arm with a breakout 2021, and Mattison hit 99 mph at the draft combine, as another power arm in the Tigers' preferred mold. I liked a handful of other names in this class as role player types, so I like the chances of this class returning some value beyond the first pick.
His preference against HS pitchers in the draft is perfectly fine. It's kind of annoying that the way he states it is essentially saying "no matter what happens, I'm right," though. His point isn't "Jobe is talented, but I could never take that much risk with a pick that high". It's "any team that takes Jobe is dumb even if he turns out to be exactly as good as they think he is." I think that's a bit much.
I also think his "base rate neglect" point doesn't hold up that well. I get that HS pitchers have a bad track record, but historically speaking I think there's a difference in said track record between someone like Jobe (very athletic, didn't pitch full time until his SR year, didn't throw 90+ until he was almost 18 years old, etc.) compared to the Tyler Kolek's and Riley Pint's of the world. He might get hurt or lose MPH on the fastball or whatever. He's a pitcher, and that happens to a lot of them (college and pro). I just don't see a point in throwing Jobe into the same bucket and asking zero questions about it as pitchers who busted out or made it who are nothing like him.
Skubal was a 9th round pick in 2018, not sure how Kiley missed that. However, other than Dinger, he’s right. Not great after round 1. Would be curious to see what other teams success rate looks like and compare it to Avila.
We might not have anyone left to trade at this point.
Dingler has a .568 ops since moving up to AA. Jury is still out on him.
Hell even our first rd picks since 2015 have included Burrows, Stewart and Faedo who have contributed nothing and Manning who also I'd say jury is still out on. Mize and Tork were no Brainer picks and Greene went to HS with our head scout
Drafting has been horrendous, only picks they have made well have been ones everyone would make
MVP MVP MVP
Baddoo, Hill and Greene could be a really fun of
you need some more power out of your OF.
Greene is going to have some power.
20th rated farm system according to bleacher Report lol. Good job Avila
They rank our top 10
Also can we stop playing Harold Castro
Matt Shepard trying to argue Cruz leaned into the pitch when it was 10 feet off the plate.
im hoping they replace him, gibby, Morris, Monroe after the season. Need a better product, especially with team getting better. Can’t imagine TV ratings are great.
How much coke has Phil Coke done tonight? Is Gores in that box with him?
Hell yeah that was Vintage 2015 Miggy. He’s back baby.
Looks like he’s no longer tired. He’s tearing up low A ball now
Derek Hill has already contributed more in these last two games than Mazara did all season.
Peralta last 5 appearances 26.2 ip 13 h 1 er 17 k 8 bb
I did not expect the Tigers to come out of the break with a sweep. The rotation is in shape, but they're patching it together. Winning 73 games this year would be quite an achievement and they are slightly ahead of that pace with 68 games remaining.
I actually saw much of Sat's opener and Sunday's game. They're not on TV here that much.
They looked...decent? Defense was crisp. Some speed on the bases and the bullpen was competent. Gibby was entirely unintelligible.
Seeing Castro at the Mud Hens game was pretty cool yesterday. He homered 1st pitch he saw and sent a liner up the middle.
Played good defense. Definitely seemed to have confidence out there and didn’t seem to pout from demotion.
Interesting. So is Jobe getting close to slot. Tigers fucked up by saying they thought he was best player in the draft
It’s fucking weird that he throws right handed but writes left handed, yes? Like, how does that happen?
I am the same.
I do almost everything right handed, except write, eat with utensils, and play pool.
There are episodes of the X Files about people like you
Hell yeah. $400 bucks. Way to go Avila
There are literally dozens of us
Mize figured out that if he wants to pitch more he needs to be efficient.
Yeah let’s put Jimenez in the game
This mize inning count thing is going to be annoying
He's almost done. I think 1-2 more starts.
Didn't know Miggy could pull off a hook slide
How many teams make the playoffs this year?
This team is actually fun to watch, which is a major upgrade from recent seasons. Still have a ways to go
Harold Castro with a .280 batting average and a .647 OPS. How? That's terrible.
Victor Reyes needs to totally revamp his swing, because he looks uncomfortable and he swings like a toddler.
Stop the fight
Look what Detroit teams do when Cade is in the building
do y'all think we can make up our negative run differential tonight? or just by the end of the series?
By the end of this inning apparently
Batted around this inning and still no outs
Not sure if any one here collects baseball cards, but topps has a series where artists redesign classic cards with modern takes. Available today and tomorrow is a pretty cool looking Akil Baddoo card. It's a rookie. Not sure what future value of these things will be but thought I'd share
Rangers coach is gonna get the hook tomorrow. Check out their last 4 games
Potentially big night for the run differential if the pen can avoid throwing up on itself.