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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Celemo, Apr 9, 2015.
he struggled the past 12 months against tougher competition. He will head off to LSU.
I give this draft a C or C+. Obviously would have rather us taken Mayer in 1st. Like what we did with next 3 picks. Looks like we didn't get much value with any pick after that. Jobe is a HS arm, I think it's possible we could look back at this draft in 5 years and see no one who is contributing to the team. It's also possible Jobe could be the best pitcher in this draft. Only thing saving me from going lower.
Avila adding this to his resume.
#2 draft 2021 per Jon Hymen.
Assuming Manning graduates, where do the new guys fit in our top 10?
*per Jon Hymen's draft expert.
Faedo will be 26 next season and will not have pitched in over 2 seasons. I think it's either a stretch to consider him a top 10 prospect or a damning indictment on our system
Pretty much all the young players missed all of 2020 so it's hard to push a lot of guys up based on that lost year. As guys graduate from the top 10 and you have to replace them, you're going to end up choosing between guys we know very little about and are a ways off still, or guys who don't have high ceilings but are closer to the big leagues. If Faedo comes back healthy off TJ and doesn't take a long time to acclimate himself, he's closer to the big leagues than most. If you want to put him at 18 instead of 10, go for it. But the difference between the two isn't much.
Like Roberto Campos has 2 HR in 5 games in rookie ball, which just started. He's also got 8 Ks in 19 ABs and hasn't walked once. He didn't play anywhere except maybe fall instructs for us last year. I don't know what any of that means. He's probably a top 10 talent, but he's also probably a long ways off. Adinso Reyes looked very good coming out of 2019 as a young guy who might pop a bit in 2020. Then he lost the entire year and hasn't performed well in limited time. I don't know what that means, either.
I put Christian Santana in there because, based off reports, his talent is on a different level from the other really young guys coming out of Latin America recently.
I think Dylan Smith is very interesting as a draft pick this year, but he's also probably further away than most college arms who get picked in that range due to him still growing into his frame and just an overall lack of experience. I think he has a higher ceiling at this point than Faedo, but he's further off from being able to show that right now.
Campos just turned 18 last month.
I am aware of this
Athletic Article on Futures Game
We got Pujols and Juan Soto, nice
BA had us as a draft they were excited about
1.3 — RHP Jackson Jobe (10)
1s.32 — RHP Ty Madden (12)
2.39 — SS Izaac Pacheco (36)
3.74 — RHP Dylan Smith (56)
4.104 — RHP Tyler Mattison (362)
5.135 — RHP Tanner Kohlhepp (NR)
6.165 — OF Austin Murr (315)
7.195 — LHP Brant Hurter (125)
8.225 — RHP Jordan Marks (149)
9.255 — RHP Garrett Burhenn (304)
10.285 — OF Austin Schultz (392)
If the Marlins had the hitting draft, the Tigers certainly had the pitching draft—even though there were plenty of teams like the Angels, Dodgers, Giants and Indians who were extremely pitching heavy.
It seemed impossible to imagine one team winding up with two of the top four pitching prospects in the class, but that’s exactly what happened with Detroit after Ty Madden somehow fell out of the first round entirely. JJ Cooper recently wrote about why Madden’s pitch characteristics could make him undervalued in today’s game, but we still viewed him as the third-best college arm in the class after the Vanderbilt duo of Jack Leiterand Kumar Rocker and a top-12 talent overall.
Pitch for pitch, Jobe is the most talented arm in the class, and while the prep demographic is inherently risky, he seems like the best high school righthander since Hunter Greene in 2017—and was picked accordingly. Madden has a power arm with a plus fastball/slider combination and the strikes and frame to be a workhorse starter, and we like a lot of the later arms as well.
Dylan Smith was Alabama’s ace this spring and posted sterling strikeout (10.3 K/9) and walk (1.8 BB/9) rates this year with a four-pitch mix. He has a fast arm and a lean frame that suggests more stuff to come as he fills out and the natural strike-throwing ability to control it and stick in a starting role.
The best pure strike thrower of this class might be the team’s eighth-round selection, Jordan Marks, who we wrote about when looking at 2021 control artists. Marks has a career walk rate of 2.0 BB/9 and is a legitimate plus control arm who sits in the low 90s but has touched 97-98 mph this spring. It’s easy to see him taking a big step forward if that velocity continues to tick up.
Tyler Mattison took a step forward with his control and velocity this spring, Tanner Kohlhepp has touched 97 as a multi-inning relief ace for Notre Dame, Brant Hurter creates uncomfortable at-bats with his long frame and lower arm slot and Garrett Burhenn has touched 97 mph this spring with a solid history of throwing strikes and a four-pitch mix.
No matter what kind of pitcher you like, there’s bound to be one that suits your style in this Tigers' draft class.
Oh, and we didn’t even mention Izaac Pacheco, who has big time raw power from the left side and a chance for above-average defense at the hot corner.
why did this thread hate it then? noted tout site thewolverine.com on the Rivals.com network was also down on this draft the night of ...
Because they passed on Mayer.
Eric Longenhagen said we had a pre-draft verbal agreement with Jobe and we honored it instead of taking Mayer. We also used the savings from taking Jobe to be able to get Madden over slot, which is nice.
yeah, that seems alright? maybe there's a real chance we spend on SS in FA?
Two ways to look at it
First way : got an elite HS arm who could be best arm in draft. Got good value in rd 2-3 including a guy some had as high as 9 in the comp rd and a ss who has great raw power potential
Second way : best player in the draft fell to us and we passed him for a HS arm, which is the riskiest type of pick. After first few rounds there seems to be no value picks.
Who are the best prospects on the Mud Hens? I am going Sunday.
Not a team full of top prospects. Paredes is probably the highest ranked one. Kody Clemens and Derek Hill both have shots of playing on the big league club. No one else there screams out to me that they are going to make any impact in Detroit
The Tigers took a catcher named Crouch in the 11th round. Now they need a 2B named Turner to match with Short at shortstop.
I'm fine with taking Jobe at 3rd but-for the way it happened. And if it was Jobe-Madden or Mayer-Fabian (or any 4th year college pitcher they could sign at or under slot) then they made the right choice.
Also, Mayer was becoming the concensus top pick, but at no time was he the concensus best player. And his value is pretty much all projection at this point, while Jobe has 2 elite traits at 18: spin rate on his slider and a 99 mph fastball. It'll obviously be a shame if we passed in Robin Yount for a guy who flames out, but it would equally suck to pass on the next Roy Holladay for a Felipe Lopez, and first round high school shortstops bust out at a 75% clip as well. The MLB draft is a crapshoot at best.
Also our player position development kinda sucks, while our pitching development is decent. So there's that too.
Eh, maybe he was the concensus best player, but that seemed more by elimination.
My brain is broken. Consensus.
I think it was more than just a verbal agreement with Jobe. You don't do something under slot at 3 without an idea of what you're going to use that money for. If I had to guess, they had agreements with both Jobe and Pacheco, and the Madden pick was just a bonus (and possibly the reason for taking a couple SRs in the middle rounds yesterday).
I liked Mayer the most of anyone in this class. I think I've been on that train since March. The notion that he's "the best player in the draft" isn't close to a universal thing like it's being portrayed now because everyone read mock drafts that had Mayer going 1 for a month even though every time someone did it they explained it by saying "Pittsburgh is looking at 5 different guys and it's probably going to come down to $$". Some people had Mayer as the 3rd-best SS in the draft behind Lawlar and Watson or House).
This was not a great draft at the top. It had a group of 6-8 guys that a lot of people had pretty even. If you're just dead set against taking a HS pitcher at 3, that's completely fine and I get it. It's scary as hell to me, too. But let's not pretend like Mayer and Jobe aren't on the same level in terms of talent, or let how risky it is to take Jobe at 3 make you think Mayer doesn't have significant risk, too. It's the baseball draft. Every player has a ton of risk. Davis went #1 and might not be able to catch in the pros. Leiter went #2 and gave up 13 HR this year and is almost as big of an injury risk as Jobe. Mayer went #4 and might have to move off SS, or might never hit 15 HR in a season. Etc., etc.
What would you describe as "value picks"? HS kids taken in round 3-10? Or different college players from the ones they took?
Just passing along what Longenhagen said. Before the draft even started he also said he heard we were taking Jobe and had an agreement in place, so he seemed to be dialed in.
I read that, too. And that could be the reason. I'm just saying that part of the reason they honored the Jobe agreement is they knew they were likely pushing Pacheco to them, too, and that duo was preferable to them over Mayer + slot picks the rest of the way. "Honoring the agreement" was likely about more than honoring their word. It was likely part of the evaluation of Mayer v. Jobe.
This is 11 years old, but Fangraphs did a look at first round shortstops:
Spoiler: First Round SS
From 1988-2002, sixty-eight shortstops were drafted in the first round (and supplemental first round) of the June Amateur Draft. Twenty-two of these players would never play in the Major Leagues, a group that includes a whopping 19 high school picks, two college players, and one Puerto Rico draftee. Twenty-three other players were Major League busts, with less than 2 career WAR to their name. This group includes 14 more high school picks, eight college guys, and another player taken out of Puerto Rico.
This leaves 23 shortstops, about 34%, that made some good on their bonus money at the Major League level. However, just eight players (11.8%) were good enough to produce more than 12 WAR in the big leagues (Note: I think this number will rise by at least two before Kelly Johnson and B.J. Upton finish their careers). Here are all 23 players:
Name WAR From
Alex Rodriguez 105.2 HS
Chipper Jones 83.2 HS
Derek Jeter 69.5 HS
Nomar Garciaparra 43.1 U
Chuck Knoblauch 42.7 U
Brian Roberts 27.5 U
Royce Clayton 20.4 HS
Adam Kennedy 18.4 U
Felipe Lopez 12.5 HS
Preston Wilson 12.3 HS
Michael Tucker 11.7 U
B.J. Upton 10.8 HS
Mike Cuddyer 10.6 HS
Kelly Johnson 9.8 HS
Adam Everett 9.7 U
Khalil Greene 9.1 U
Pokey Reese 7.3 HS
Bobby Crosby 6.6 U
Willie Greene 5.0 HS
Brent Gates 4.5 U
Kevin Orie 3.6 U
Russ Johnson 3.3 U
Benji Gil 2.5 HS
To recap a little bit, this means that the 68 shortstops drafted over 15 years were distributed like this: 45 high school players, 21 college players and two Puerto Ricans. While the latter two didn’t work out, the college shortstops had a 52% success rate (if we define success as eventually producing 2 WAR, which is a dubious distinction at best), while high school players “succeeded” at just a 25% level. But, if you want to know why scouting directors continue to fall for the toolsy prep shortstop, take a look at that leaderboard again: Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones and Derek Jeter have passed a combined 250 Wins Above Replacement, handily outpacing the other 65 players combined.
You would be astute to point out that Rodriguez, Jones and Jeter weren’t like all the other high school shortstops, as these were elite guys. Rodriguez was a consensus #1 guy in his draft class, Jones was a consensus top two pick, and Jeter easily in the top ten. But, if we limited ourself just to shortstops drafted in the top ten, we have 16 data points, and eight of them produced 5 WAR in the big leagues, drafted in this position: first, first, second, sixth, eighth, ninth, ninth, tenth. Only one player didn’t reach the big leagues (1999 draft’s #4 pick, Corey Myers), though six others have a negative before their career WAR number. And if you’re scoring at home, that means the first-round shortstops drafted after 10th overall consist of 52 players, and just 10 of them would reach the 5 WAR watermark.
Like I did with catchers, I want to look at the success stories, and see what their minor league production looked like. To keep the number of players palatable, I limited the group to only the 17 players that produced seven or more WAR, in other words, everyone above Bobby Crosby in the previous table. And then, because I don’t think we learn much from them, I removed Royce Clayton, Adam Everett and Pokey Reese. These were guys whose offensive identity really didn’t matter a whole lot, so we can sum up their path to the big leagues like this: “really impressed scouts with their defense.”
All over the map, but I do want to use this space to talk about ultimate position. Of the 13 players we’re looking at, just Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, Khalil Greene and Felipe Lopez were primary shortstops during their career. We can probably throw A-Rod into this group, too, but still, it’s certainly not rare for these guys not to last long at shortstop. Michael Tucker never played a game at shortstop, and just a year at second base, while Mike Cuddyer was there just a year. Four players would make second base their home, and then five split between third base and the outfield. But with heights ranging from 5-9 to 6-3, and with weights from 165-210, I don’t think we need to put a lot of stock in that.
This was actually more impressive than I would have guessed. I have 10 players show up with Low-A experience, and really only Brian Roberts wasn’t young for the level (201 PA’s at age 21). And, to boot, Roberts .240/.347/.323 line was the second worst of the bunch. The worst belongs to Preston Wilson, who was the only high school draftee to post a Low-A OBP below .350. Of the other seven teenage performances, the worst OBP is Felipe Lopez at .351, and the worst slugging is Jeter at .394. Honors for top prize are between Alex Rodriguez (.319/.379/.605) and Kelly Johnson (.289/.404/.513).
This was usually a step down for the players, as even Chipper Jones hit a paltry .277/.353/.413. The better guys didn’t end up as the better players down the road in the Major Leagues, so I’m inclined to really look at High-A performances and just wait and see until we get a nice sample in Double-A. But props to Michael Tucker (.305/.391/.456) and Mike Cuddyer (.298/.403/.470) for what they did.
I can remember now that when the B.J. Upton hype machine was in full swing, we compared his .301/.391/.426 line in AA (at ages 18 and 19) to Alex Rodriguez (at age 18) hitting .288/.391/.441. But what should be noted is that the best guys didn’t last long at this level, and they hit it well. It took a guy like Cuddyer two years to figure it out, and Nomar wasn’t very good (.267/.338/.384), but a quick move to Triple-A and onto the Majors was a good sign.
I like this. The best performances were by Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra, with Chipper Jones not far behind. Derek Jeter posted his best minor league numbers in Triple-A, and Khalil Greene looked pretty human. It’s hard in prospect analysis to wait to decide on a player until Triple-A, but with first round shortstops, it seems hard to make a definitive opinion much before then.
As I look at each player that failed, and his minor league path before then, it quickly jumped out at me that Low-A is a really important barometer for shortstops. I said above that the good players had .350 OBP’s in Low-A, where that was pretty rare for the failed prospects. I think of guys like Jason Repko and Aaron Herr, who would go on to tease scouts with some pretty solid performances in Double-A and Triple-A as they moved up the ladder. But Repko had hit .220/.257/.329 in Low-A, and Herr was .248/.283/.366. The fact is, for the most part, these highly athletic players tend to do a good job hitting mediocre Low-A pitching.
And for the players that teased in the low minors, a guy like Josh Burrus for example, then Double-A was usually a harsh reminder of reality. I continue to think that High-A is a weird unimportant stop in the development of first round shortstops — I don’t really have a hypothesis why this is true — but it’s clear that Low-A and Double-A are better barometers of how a player will mature. I’m trying to be careful making blanket statements, lest I’d have thought Nomar Garciaparra or Preston Wilson were busts prematurely, but I think we all understand the point.
High school shortstops are dangerous, dangerous uses of first round picks. The college variety is safer, but you really are just looking for a 5-20 WAR player in the end. And, with everyone, the best way to tell a fraud from a prospect is to see how they do out of the gate, and then check back in when they get to Double-A. And, for what it’s worth, the chance the player stays at shortstop is almost non existent.
I know that calculus may have changed a bit - more recent drafts will have Tulo (college), Correa (PR/High School), Tim Anderson (college), Lindor (HS) and Saeger (HS) - but HS shortstop still is a very risky proposition.
In fairness, every position drafted today is less of a risky proposition than it was in 2002 or 2012. The information out there today leads to better decisions.
Keith Law says never draft a HS pitcher in the top 15 because HS pitchers are absurdly risky. And historically, that makes a lot of sense over the years. Here is the list of HS pitchers taken in the top 16 since 2015:
Kolby Allard (14th) - in the big leagues and is league average
Ian Anderson (3rd) - in the big leagues and above average
Riley Pint (4th) - one of the biggest busts in the last decade and retired
Braxton Garrett (7th) - in the big leagues, but I believe he's hurt
Matt Manning (9th) - just reached the big leagues
Jason Groome (12th) - got hurt right away and is trying to come back, but still in A ball
Hunter Greene (2nd) - had TJ, but is a top 50ish prospect again in AAA
MacKenzie Gore (3rd) - in AAA and one of the 10 best prospects in baseball
Shane Baz (12th) - top 75ish prospect and likely to debut this summer
Trevor Rogers (13th) - in the big leagues, made the All-Star team, and one of the best starters in the NL
Ryan Weathers (7th) - in the big leagues as a swing man
Grayson Rodriguez (11th) - mlbpipeline has him as the 19th-best prospect in baseball and is in AA
Cole Winn (15th) - started the Futures game Sunday
Matthew Liberatore (16th) - the other starter in the Futures game Sunday
Mick Abel (15th) - pitching well in low A ball (58 K in 38 IP)
If you just look at that list, those results don't look any worse than any other position. Part of that is teams aren't drafting the Riley Pints of the world as much anymore because of the awful history with those guys. Part of it is teams are smarter when the pitchers get into their orgs. Part of it is a lot of randomness. All of that is the baseball draft.
Imagine if Al did this
On a selfish note, in the future us Michiganders should be able to see Jobe pitch at West Michigan for at least an entire season. I was kinda bummed at how fast Torkelson rushed through high-A just because I never got to make it over to see him.
Bases clearing Triple in 2nd for Greene
Fuck yeah. Extend Avila.
Will Jobe pitch this year? Maybe in that shitty Florida Complex League?
My guess is he'll get some starts in rookie ball where he throws 2-3 innings. Maybe they push it a bit and send him to low A in September for some more 2-3 inning starts. A lot probably depends on how much he's been throwing since his season ended 5+ weeks ago (I'm assuming that's when it ended, at least).
Great off season for Avila
Like all those moves. Mazara needed to go, Hill needs time with big club. I haven't given up on Willi, but hopefully some time in aaa gets his bat going again
Keith Law's draft recap...
The Tigers took Jackson Jobe (1), the top high school pitcher in the class, with the third overall pick. He can work at 94-96 with plus spin and life on the pitch, and shows a plus slider with enormous spin rates, as well as a changeup and curveball. He’s a great athlete with a delivery he can repeat well, a harbinger of future command. He has all the ingredients you’d want in a future ace.
If you read any of my stuff, you probably know where I stand on taking a high school pitcher – any high school pitcher – this high. Their failure rate is so much higher than that of any other class of player (college anything, high school hitter) that the rational approach to the draft is to skip high school players at least in the top half of the first round. Taking them anyway is an example of base rate neglect, where you think the example you have is special or an outlier and underweight the risk of the class as a whole. Jackson Jobe might be a future superstar, but right now, he’s a high school pitcher.
Texas right-hander Ty Madden (1A) is a two-pitch starter who was worked very hard this spring, averaging over 100 pitches per appearance. He has the size and velocity of a starter, with a plus pitch in the slider, but no changeup to speak of to get lefties out. There’s big reliever risk here.
Third baseman Izaac Pacheco (2) has first-round tools with a strong swing, big power upside, and solid defense at third base (especially for a 6-foot-4, 225-pound kid). He does open up his front side through contact, which the Tigers will probably want to close off so he isn’t vulnerable to left-handers.
Alabama right-hander Dylan Smith (3) is a rare projection college arm; he’s athletic and can get up to 95, but still has room to grow and add velocity and stamina. He has an above-average fastball/curveball combination at his best but needs to develop his changeup and improve his fastball command. There’s mid-rotation upside with some risk here. Bryant right-hander Tyler Mattison (4) was a senior but is still just 21; he has a compact delivery and short arm action he repeats exceptionally well, throwing three pitches for strikes. He’s up to 94 from a high three-quarters slot with depth on the breaking ball. He’s quite good. Tanner Kohlhepp (5) is a low-slot right-hander – think Justin Masterson – who’s up to 96 with life and a slider that should make him a solid right-on-right reliever.
Brant Hurter (7) was one of the better senior arms in the draft, a 6-6 lefty who just came back from Tommy John surgery. He’s up to 94 with a solid slider and changeup, possibly a backend starter but with more upside as he continues to recover from surgery. Right-hander Jordan Marks (8) has been up to 96 for Hollywood Upstairs … I mean, South Carolina Upstate, with an average curveball and potentially average changeup. He throws plenty of strikes to profile as a fifth starter.
Fuck Law. Every recap on every player he writes up is “he basically sucks”
This made me laugh out loud coming from you
at least 90% of the guys drafted this week will never sniff the majors and basically do suck