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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Celemo, Apr 9, 2015.
Not buying it. He’s been lights out and comes back with a hit and 2 walks in .2 innings.
Every contending team should want a great pitcher with team control. How is this news?
Those two guys don’t make sense for our “rebuild”.
Renfroe is 27, he would be on the other side of 30 before we seriously can think about contending.
Reyes just turned 24 this week and would come in and immediately be our best power hitter. Think I'd be ok adding him (if there is more)
Sup bro I thought you left us
Yeah, but then we’d just trade his ass in. 3 years for the next Dawel Lugo, when we still suck, and his contract is up.
Dawel is hitting .350 w .980 ops in AAA lol
Not much bro. Was pretty busy today.
I’m thinking the Royals Win. 2 of. 3. LFG
Did Jack Morris get suspended for his comments on Cabrera?
FUCK. We are going to win tonight
smeegsgreen . Can you please post?
Oh, how things can change in a year.
Last summer, Max Bultman projected the Detroit Tigers’ 2022 opening day roster. Faces such as Jeimer Candelario were still glittering with hope, and there was the thought that, yes, Nicholas Castellanos could still sign a long-term extension with the Tigers.
Here we are a year later. The Tigers are 28-57, and though the outlook for position players on the farm isn’t quite as bright as it once was, Al Avila has an extension, and the Tigers will see this rebuild through. The franchise is leaning on its pitching prospects to carry the Tigers forward.
Here, then, is an updated projection of the Tigers’ 2022 roster, with a few ground rules:
We’re not making fictional trades into the future. But we will consider trade rumors floating around right now when it comes to players such as Castellanos and Matthew Boyd.
Positions can change, but only within reason. Infielders aren’t moving to the outfield, etc.
The Tigers will likely sign a quality free agent or two before the 2022 season. That’s important to consider because the 2022 roster could indeed look a lot better than this one. But because so much of that is wildly unpredictable, we won’t account for possible free agent signings. Leave those to your imagination (the 2021-22 free agent class could actually be an awesome one).
There will be some prospects on the verge of the big leagues, but it’s tough to know how they will develop. So we’ll make some honorable mentions, too.
Now, for the good stuff:
Tigers catching prospect Jake Rogers throws down to second during a spring training game in Lakeland on Mar. 1, 2018. (Mark Cunningham / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Catcher: Jake Rogers (26 on opening day 2022)
Is he really a starting catcher? That’s the question at this point, and it’s one we might learn the answer to in the next year. Rogers still projects as a top-end defensive catcher. He answered some doubts about his bat with by hitting .302 with five homers earlier this season in Double A. But since earning a promotion to Triple-A Toledo, Rogers is hitting only .212.
Still, the Futures Game selection has solid plate discipline and power, both of which can project to the MLB level. The Tigers need him to be able to hit at least .220 — and hopefully at least .240 — to stick as a starting catcher. But based on Rogers’ elite arm and his plus receiving skills, he has a good chance to be the Tigers’ catcher well into the future. If Rogers doesn’t pan out, the Tigers could look down the line to a guy like Sam McMillan, currently in Class A.
First base: Brandon Dixon (30)
We’re putting Dixon here simply because there isn’t a much better option. Dixon has been the surprise of this year’s Tigers, leading the team with 12 home runs a year after getting waived by the Reds. In reality, it’s unlikely Dixon is still playing a key role by 2022. But he won’t be a free agent until 2025, and Miguel Cabrera’s knees won’t allow him to make a return to first base. The Tigers have Reynaldo Rivera in the farm system, but he is hitting just .227 in Class A West Michigan. This is why it would have been nice if Cal slugger Andrew Vaughn had fallen to the Tigers in this year’s draft — because right now, the Tigers simply don’t have a first baseman for the future. This could be the first position the Tigers opt to upgrade via free agency or a trade.
Second base: Harold Castro (27)
Castro gets the nod here based on the way he has performed through his first 40 games in the majors. Obviously, plenty could change. But right now, Castro deserves a vote of confidence for the future because he is hitting .294 in 102 at-bats this year. He’s a versatile defender, but he has started the most games (15) at second base. It’s concerning that Castro has only drawn four walks in 109 plate appearances this summer, but he has also shown enough confidence and competence at the plate to get the benefit of the doubt for now. With other players such as Dawel Lugo (hitting just .207 in the majors) struggling, Castro seems to have the organizational edge. In three more years, he might have to hold off Kody Clemens, who started the year slowly in Class A but has performed better as of late, though he is still hitting just .235.
Isaac Paredes has a promising bat, but his defense remains a bit of an unknown. (Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via AP)
Third base: Isaac Paredes (23)
Another Futures Game selection, Paredes is hitting .258 with a .351 on-base percentage so far in Double A. He has six home runs and the potential to add a bit more power in coming years. His bat inspires as much hope as any prospect right now, but like others, his defense is a bit of an unknown. Paredes has played 49 games at third base this year and 22 games at shortstop. Based on the way Jeimer Candelario’s first half went — and even considering Candelario’s hot streak since he was recalled from Triple A — I’m betting on Paredes to occupy third base in the foreseeable future.
Shortstop: Niko Goodrum (30)
If you want to start talking about success stories under the current Tigers regime, look no further than Niko Goodrum. After a surprising season last year, Goodrum has come back to play well again in 2019. Although he can be up and down at the plate, he might have the best approach of any Tigers hitter. He has also started 27 games at shortstop and looked entirely fit for the position. If Goodrum can post offensive numbers like he did in 2018 (.245/.315/.432), that’s pretty good for a middle-infield spot, and based on what we’ve seen so far, he deserves the chance to play shortstop every day for the Tigers unless someone objectively better comes along. He doesn’t become a free agent until 2024. (Note: Willi Castro, Sergio Alcantara and Wenceel Perez will all be competing for time in the coming years, as well.)
Left field: Parker Meadows (22)
Meadows is Detroit’s No. 8 prospect, and his 6-5 frame and raw power still inspire plenty of hope. Like so many other young players in this organization, though, Meadows has scuffled in the minors, hitting just .221 so far in his first full season of pro ball. But Meadows is a natural athlete capable of playing any outfield position. He’s graded as a plus runner, and though he might not be quite like his brother Austin, Meadows still shows flashes of special ability. There could be a handful of young players competing for this spot, but Meadows has the most potential outside of 2019 first-rounder Riley Greene. Greene will only be 21, but in an ideal world, maybe he takes the fast lane to the majors and beats out Meadows for this spot.
Center field: JaCoby Jones (30)
Jones isn’t a free agent until 2024, and based on the way he played in May and June, it will be worth giving him more time to earn the permanent designation as Detroit’s center fielder. After an abysmal start to the year, Jones is now hitting .244 with nine home runs, and we’ve seen how good he can be when he gets hot at the plate. He still strikes out too often — 75 times already this year — but he is on track to walk more than last season, and perhaps he isn’t done improving. He’s already proven himself as an elite-level defender, and even though his metrics aren’t nearly as good this season, he can track down balls in the open spaces of Comerica Park like few others. If he can just get a little more consistent at the plate, Jones should retain his hold on the center field spot for the foreseeable future.
Despite struggling at the plate for much of the season in Triple A, Daz Cameron reminds some scouts of his father, long-time major leaguer Mike Cameron. (Joe Robbins / Getty Images)
Right field: Daz Cameron (25)
Cameron hasn’t exactly helped his case this year, hitting only .228 in Triple A after an impressive spring training. But he’s still bound to get a shot in the majors soon, and this organization is still banking on Cameron being a contributor in the future. He’s shown glimpses of being a player comparable to his father, Mike Cameron. At other times, he’s looked like a guy who might never reach his potential (he already has 92 strikeouts this year). Cameron has gotten hot at the plate over the past couple of weeks, and maybe that means he’s turning the corner in Triple A. He’s a plus runner with a good glove, and his upside alone means he will get every chance to succeed. Assuming Castellanos is long gone, we’ll put Cameron in right field and let Meadows range around in left, though both are capable of playing any outfield spot.
Designated hitter: Christin Stewart (28)
Stewart’s first half was full of rookie ups and downs: a big homer on opening day, a nagging injury, a terrible slump. He’s since rebounded and stabilized, and now the trick is letting his power potential shine. Stewart is hitting .233 with six homers this season, but he easily has the power to hit 25-30 homers. He’s shown a respectable plate approach, and because he has hit well at every level, he could be due to heat up in the second half. Defense will always be his weakness, but by 2022, it’s entirely possible the Tigers can get Stewart out of left field. Based on the way things are going for Miguel Cabrera, he could easily be relegated to the bench, or his troublesome right knee could lead to his career ending before his contract expires following the 2024 season.
C Grayson Greiner (29)
OF Jacob Robson (27)
IF Willi Castro (25)
IF Sergio Alcantara (26)
Note: The way things are trending, it is tough to see Miguel Cabrera lasting 2 1/2 more seasons, then coming back for another. Although Cabrera is hitting above .300, his power seems to be diminished. And though there are questions about his role in the clubhouse, the real question is his health. Cabrera could retire for medical reasons and still get paid for his full contract, which goes through 2024. Otherwise, Cabrera might enter this 2022 season as an aging player who is essentially a platoon DH. Anything else would be a remarkable story.
The rest of the bench might be occupied by players such as Alcantara or Castro, who will also have shots to earn starting jobs. Although Grayson Greiner’s first stint in the leagues wasn’t impressive, he showed the potential to be a sound defensive catcher and maybe a serviceable backup. Also, look for outfielder Jose Azocar as a possible sleeper to make this roster. Though he’s only the Tigers’ No. 29 prospect, Azocar is hitting .289 in Double-A Erie right now.
Batting order vs. RHP
Matt Manning (Courtesy of the Erie SeaWolves)
LHP Matthew Boyd (31)
RHP Casey Mize (24)
RHP Matt Manning (24)
RHP Spencer Turnbull (26)
RHP Michael Fulmer (29)
The trade rumors involving Matthew Boyd are heating up. But for the sake of speculation, let’s say the Tigers keep him this year and beyond. That could make Boyd the ace of a 2022 pitching staff that suddenly looks pretty promising. Casey Mize and Matt Manning should be locks to be in the majors by ’22, and Alex Faedo might be, too. It will be interesting to see what happens with Turnbull — he has a 3.31 ERA after the first half of his rookie season, but his command issues and a history of shoulder troubles leave some wondering if he might be best suited for the bullpen long term. Fulmer, too, is a perplexing case, because he will be on the way back from Tommy John surgery next spring. He’s under contract through 2023, so he will have the chance to rediscover himself. But if it goes bad, the Tigers might be in a tough position, though Fulmer makes only $2.8 million right now.
CL: RHP Joe Jimenez (27)
SU: LHP Gregory Soto (27)
RP: RHP Buck Farmer (31)
RP: RHP Kyle Funkhouser (28)
RP: RHP Beau Burrows (25)
RP: RHP Zac Houston (27)
RP: LHP Daniel Stumpf (31)
This setup also accounts for the Tigers not trading Joe Jimenez. If that happens, the team is suddenly searching for its closer of the future all over again. Detroit does have a promising back-end bullpen option in Soto. Although he has an 8.14 eyesore of an ERA right now, there’s talk Soto could eventually blossom as a one-inning bullpen arm. The Tigers could also help stabilize pitchers such as Funkhouser and Burrows with moves to the pen. The nature of being a reliever pitcher in the big leagues is fickle, but Farmer and Stumpf are still under contract. Zac Houston remains one of the organization’s most underrated arms, and he could become a quality reliever in a few more years.
Knocking on the doorstep
RHP Alex Faedo (26)
SS Wenceel Perez (22)
OF Brock Deatherage (26)
OF Riley Greene (21)
C Sam McMillan (23)
RHP Franklin Perez (24)
2B Kody Clemens (26)
LHP Tarik Skubal (25)
The big one, like we’ve already learned in a year, is that projecting baseball rosters is hard. For all the criticism front-office people take, there is a reason they get paid a lot of money to make these decisions. Chances are this will simply be one more misguided attempt at looking into a crystal ball.
But the other lesson is this: If the Tigers plan to do anything close to competing by 2022, it will require spending some money. This roster could be packed with youth and optimism, but it lacks power hitters and players who can consistently get on base. The Tigers have a gaping organizational hole at first base, and plenty of other positions are toss-ups between a few prospects who may or may not pan out. In all likelihood, the Tigers will be able to purchase at least one top-end free agent by 2022 — after Jordan Zimmermann’s contract is long gone and after the framework of the rebuild really starts to take shape.
We also see here why scouting and player development are so key for the future. So many players on this list, from Daz Cameron to Parker Meadows to Isaac Paredes, still need to make huge strides in their games. Are they fringe major leaguers, or are they guys with All-Star potential? That’s ultimately for them to decide, but the best organizations give their players every possible resource to improve.
From a pitching standpoint, the Tigers have a fun list of names. But remember that Mize and Manning will still be adjusting to MLB life, and there’s hardly a guarantee Boyd will still be around or Turnbull will stick as a starter.
Right now, this can serve as a makeshift organizational depth chart. And maybe it even provides a little glimpse into what the future might look like.
(Top photo of Casey Mize: Courtesy of the Erie SeaWolves)
At the very least this would be a good org to deal with. Dunno bout Renfroe as the centerpiece, but Franmil would be a nice snag (plus some of their pitching) ...
So if fat fuck Cabrera retires, we have to pay his full contract? Or do we have insurance cover that?
And that’s another 100 loss team. Great job Avila.
Projecting Dixon, Harold Castro, Goodrum and Paredes as the starting infield and 4 of the top 5 in the batting lineup in 2022 is... interesting. More likely that none of them are starting infielders than all of them in 3 years.
Going by those rules...
Jake Rogers, c
Jeimer Candelario, 1b
Kody Clemens, 2b
Willi Castro, ss
Isaac Paredes, 3b
Christin Stewart, lf
Daz Cameron, cf
Nicholas Castellanos, rf
Miguel Cabrera, dh
Kade Scivicque, c
Sergio Alcantara, ss
JaCoby Jones, of
Daniel Woodrow, of
Matt Boyd, lhp
Casey Mize, rhp
Matt Manning, rhp
Beau Burrows, rhp
Michael Fulmer, rhp
Joe Jimenez, rhp
Bryan Garcia, rhp
Alex Faedo, rhp
Tarik Skubal, lhp
Gregory Soto, lhp
Kyle Funkhouser, rhp
John Schreiber, rhp
You don’t think we trade Boyd MG2 ?
I have no clue, but if the rules say I can't include a pretend Boyd trade, I'm not taking Boyd out of that rotation, either.
Does this mean anything to Greene?
The guy had a 9.35 ERA. Why would it?
Big game tonight smeegsgreen . Hoping Boyd pitches a gem, and fat joe blows the game in the 8th. LFG
Very important losses the next two. We really need to separate into the #1 draft position.
I already bought Tickets to all 4 games of the Tigers vs Orioles series in September. Comerica is going to be lit
Did you get an O’s hat/jersey yet?
Nah. I’ll wear my Tigers hat, but cheer for the O’s
Tarik Skubal will be a starter. Kid is impressive
Have you seen him pitch?
Online , not in person.
Come on Boyd. Wake the fuck up.
He didn’t pitch that bad tonight. All the runs he gave up were on weak ass hits.
Fire whoever the A ball manager is. What a fucking joke.
Is bunting for hits not a valuable skill to develop anymore?
Nobody fucking bunts
A pretty good night on DK so far. We'll see what happens with the CIN/COL game, you know I had Brad Keller though
Probably not. And I don't really care. But having a 19 year old bunt in A ball doesn't seem like the dereliction of duty that guy thinks it is. You're seeing pitches and thinking the game when you try to bunt for a hit. It isn't any less developmental than trying to crush a straight fastball from a single A pitcher who can't throw a change up.
The guys biggest weakness right now is his bat. And you’re wasting at bats for him by having him bunt 4-5 times a week
Get them brooms out smeegsgreen
Zimmermann gets it Vinegar Strokes
Nope. Too bad Bailey got scratched
Castro has been impressive this year. Can’t find him on any prospects rankings
Ken Rosenthal on Boyd
4. What will the Tigers decide on Matthew Boyd?
Here’s one executive’s view: “I don’t think they will trade him, just based on their history. They played the same game with (Michael) Fulmer. He was always ‘available,’ but the price was so high that they could never make a deal. I see the same happening with Boyd.”
OK, but keeping Fulmer didn’t work out so hot, did it?
Fulmer’s 2017 season ended when he underwent ulnar nerve transposition surgery in his right elbow. His 2018 season ended when he had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee. And his 2019 season never began due to Tommy John surgery.
Boyd, 28, has never been on the disabled list, and he is under club control for three more seasons after this one. His strikeout percentage is the fourth highest in the majors behind Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale, his walk percentage is the 11th lowest. He recently allowed 12 homers in a span of six starts – baseball, 2019 – but otherwise has been excellent.
It’s possible Boyd will have just as much trade value in the offseason – his remaining three years of arbitration will be far more affordable than what the top free agents (Cole, Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg if he opts out) will command. The Tigers, then, should rightly aim high in their quest to add position-player prospects to their developing core of young pitching. But after getting burned with Fulmer, they should be acutely aware of the danger of waiting too long.
I forgot about Fulmer. Way to fuck that up Avila.
Yo smeegsgreen im feeling a 4 game sweep by the Indians. What about you?