Elon / Twitter Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Whammy, Apr 14, 2022.

  1. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    The fed’s mandate is literally not to raise unemployment. It’s quoted on this page or the last. Setting aside that fact (again y’all will argue the stupidest things), Powell is not out there admitting to your view of what they’re trying to do (and will likely fuck up because they’re idiots).

    Powell: So a soft landing is, is really just getting back to 2% inflation while keeping the labor market strong. And it’s quite challenging to accomplish that right now, for a couple of reasons. One is just that unemployment is very, very low, the labor market’s extremely tight, and inflation is very high. So it will be challenging, it won’t be easy. No one here thinks that it will be easy. Nonetheless, we think there are pathways, as you mentioned, for us to get there. And really what that means is just as we raise rates, we — so the problem, what causes inflation, is that demand and supply are out of whack. There’s too much demand. For example, in the labor market, there’s more demand for workers than there are people to take the jobs, right now, by a substantial margin. And, because of that, wages are moving up at levels that are unsustainably high and not consistent with low inflation. And so what we need to do is we need to get demand down, give supply a chance to recover and get those to align. So how might we do that? Right now, in the labor market, there are two job openings for every unemployed person. It’s historically high-level. So in principle, and I’m not saying this will be easy to do, in principle, you could moderate demand, reduce demand to the point where job openings move down substantially, and the labor market gets much closer to being in balance. And that would affect … wages would still be moving up at healthy levels. They wouldn’t have to go down, but ultimately they would be at levels that would be consistent with 2% inflation.
     
  2. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    SolarCity was founded in 2006 by brothers Peter and Lyndon Rive,[2]based on a suggestion for a solar company concept by their cousin, Elon Musk, who was the chairman and helped start the company.
     
  3. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    it's insane you of all people are arguing this point, i guess this part of economics isn't real useful for crypto folks so it doesn't get added to the rolodex

    the rare instance where almost everyone in economics agrees on cause/effect, even the austrian school folks you fellate, and you zag, classic
     
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  4. joey jo-jo jr shabadoo

    joey jo-jo jr shabadoo you know for me, the action is the juice

    something tells me jordan peterson will be able to climax to this si swimsuit photo
     
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  5. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    When the mandate is literally “maximum employment” and you’re in here arguing that their mandate is unemployment, you shouldn’t be shocked that I disagree with you.

    It’s a dumbass institution that seeks financial stability but has presided over 16 recessions since inception. Maybe one of these years they’ll figure it out!
     
  6. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    and their mandate right now requires them to raise unemployment because other factors are prioritized

    they currently believe unemployment is too low, as they said
     
  7. portlandspartan

    portlandspartan Well-Known Member
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    lol a suggestion.

    did he help bankrupt it?
     
  8. The Guglia

    The Guglia I Work in the City, and I Work Long Hours.
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    Please don’t question founders

    You probably don’t even understand the space
     
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  9. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Was only quoting for the cousins/his involvement in starting it.
     
  10. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Are we sure their mandate isn’t endless recessions and financial instability?
     
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  11. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    thank you for conceding the point like an adult
     
  12. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Nah. I’ll concede that they’ll mismanage what they’re trying to do though…

    The point you and others are making is a bit odd. Would you prefer they not raise rates?
     
  13. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    i'm ok with where they're at now

    but basically for the last 40 years they've pumped rates too early so we'll see where they end up
     
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  14. TAXTAXTAX

    TAXTAXTAX Well-Known Member
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    This quote literally says they need to reduce job openings! Can you not even read?

    I used to be really into crypto. As a finance/tech/accounting geek myself, it was right up my alley. Plus, it seemed like a really good idea to have a stash of crypto to buy illegal stuff. As time went on, there were more and more of these edgelords with their galaxy brained ideas like the gold standard and abolish the fed. I mean how can you not see that under the gold standard, you just fix the price of gold? It does absolutely nothing but unnecessarily complicate things.

    In any case, the shortages are created due to supply constraints. Do you really expect me to believe that people went out and bought up all the milk and eggs, cause they got some free money from the government? There's probably not even that much inflation, if you spread it out over 5 years. Most of the increase is just due to the depressed comps from COVID.
     
  15. TAXTAXTAX

    TAXTAXTAX Well-Known Member
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    Yes, our economy is based on a system of private banks, acting as agents of the federal government, to manage the money supply. And you think it would be a great idea to just have no one managing it. It barely works as it is!
     
  16. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Hilton Honors VIP
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    I did not say that. I said hire a financial advisor like an adult. I'd think they have those in Alabama.

    Rather than lose money in a scam like cryptocurrency. Which brings the "Tanking" discussion from earlier today itt full circle.
     
  17. lfriend

    lfriend Well-Known Member
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    Crypto bros are some of the weirdest motherfuckers in existence.
     
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  18. VaxRule

    VaxRule Mmm ... Coconuts
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    User @gatorfromiowa, Elon Musk is an idiot. A buffoon. A nincompoop. He’s also an objectively bad person. You can stop thinking of him as crypto Jesus. It makes look to be as big of a dummy as Elon.
     
  19. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    I think he’s an idiot when it comes to crypto and have said so multiple times. He doesn’t understand btc, layer 2 solutions, and is dumb for promoting doge. But you guys are incapable of nuance and instead love projection and arguing against positions I’ve never taken. So carry on.
     
  20. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Reducing job openings when they are substantially higher than number of people to take those jobs =\ the fed’s literal mandate is to raise unemployment.

    I think your view of inflation is reductionist and silly. Do you really expect me to believe the price of assets didn’t go up with like $5 trillion injected into the economy? And lol at “not that much inflation.” Sure maybe if you live in rural Nebraska and eat fast food for every meal. Better hope you don’t want a house in most any major market, or a share of the S&P, or pick most anything that people aspire to own. You’ll have to excuse me for not believing every disproven talking point from the fed on inflation: it’s transitory (jk), it’s Russia’s fault, it’s those greedy corporations raising prices, it’s supply chains.

    The fact you think crypto was a really good idea so you could have a stash to buy illegal stuff is uhhhhh not really the investment thesis. And lol at galaxy brained edge lords. When Bill Miller, Ray Dalio, Stan Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, Ric Edelman (Fran Tarkenton theres your advisor who literally just wrote a book on crypto and quit managing $300b in AUM to focus on crypto) and an endless list of other high profile investing/finance people own btc, maybeeeeeeeee it’s you who is missing the point. Fucking fidelity recommends like a 5% btc allocation. The vast majority of them have made public comments and/or written articles on why they have it in their portfolio. I’d recommend that you spend some more time educating yourself because it takes a lot of cognitive dissonance to ignore the high profile banks and investors who are advocates. Maybe they’re all wrong though and the average tmb poster has this all figured out.
     
  21. Redav

    Redav One big ocean
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    I realize the business owners are getting hit by that post.
     
  22. ~ taylor ~

    ~ taylor ~ Well-Known Member
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    So you agree that he has areas where he excels and areas where he's in over his head.
     
  23. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Yes and this isn’t some gotcha. I disagree with the general characterization of him as some idiot. I think he’s very clearly intelligent about things like physics, engineering, solar, rockets, etc.

    That can still make him a moron on marketing, business acumen (although the results say otherwise), crypto, or whatever else you all want to knock him for.
     
  24. Beeds07

    Beeds07 Bitch, it's Saturday
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    I really think Whammy just likes getting shit on. My only hope is that this is just a message board fetish.
     
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  25. BudKilmer

    BudKilmer Well-Known Member
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    Lyrtch has convinced me business degrees should not exist and I’ll die on that hill.
     
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  26. ~ taylor ~

    ~ taylor ~ Well-Known Member
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    I'm not trying to get you. I agree. He's clearly not a dribbling idiot in all areas, so the question is really just which areas. As he gets further away from his comfort zone, he seems to flounder more and more. So maybe he's generally an idiot for going outside his comfort zone and acting like a confident fool, but he has enough money that maybe it doesn't matter. He's certainly an idiot for embracing what he's been embracing lately on Twitter. And he's acting rashly in an area - corporate M&A - where he used to excel. So that's not great for him. It starts calling into question what caused his previous successes and failures. He could have shut the fuck up and remained an eccentric genius.
     
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  27. Bo Pelinis

    Donor TMB OG
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    Why do we not talk about Musk hiring really really smart people and slave driving them into his companies successes? Sure, hiring smart people is smart but he’s not like, sitting behind the computer doing all the engineering himself.
     
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  28. Redav

    Redav One big ocean
    Donor

    Yeah even if his companies are doing cool things, it's not really because of him. He's just the money man.
     
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  29. Bo Pelinis

    Donor TMB OG
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    Even if he’s not just the money man and is instead an amoral idea tyrant pushing the companies forward, I mean, that’s a skill, sure. But it doesn’t make him a genius.
     
  30. poor paul

    poor paul Well-Known Member
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    Wrexham AFC

    stanning for somebody else's intelligence on the internet because he's wealthy is and will always be weird to me.
     
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  31. ~ taylor ~

    ~ taylor ~ Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG

    I don't know enough about the actual workings of his companies to actually say that, but I assumed it to be true. Access to capital helps. He hasn't actually invented anything that I can tell, but he identified areas where threw money and manpower at expanding in and controlling new spaces, so that's an area where he seems to excel. He didn't actually invent the idea of online payments, electric cars, space travel, solar energy or satellite internet like some seem to believe. Any startup incubator in the late 90s or 2000s had people trying to do those things and the ideas behind them existed for years or decades before Musk's companies existed.
     
    #3082 ~ taylor ~, May 18, 2022
    Last edited: May 18, 2022
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  32. Redav

    Redav One big ocean
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    But what if you also get self worth from being wealthy?
     
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  33. Bo Pelinis

    Donor TMB OG
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    Like, If you give millions of other people Musk’s money and lack of moral compass they could do the same thing. It just depends on the industries in which they choose to operate. He just happened to pick some cool ones. Of that I am 100% convinced.
     
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  34. poor paul

    poor paul Well-Known Member
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    Wrexham AFC

    I would simply enjoy my wealth.
     
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  35. Redav

    Redav One big ocean
    Donor

    People don't like that our society is mostly the luck of who you're born to. I mean there's endless research that states this as fact but everyone has to be the protagonist.
     
  36. TAXTAXTAX

    TAXTAXTAX Well-Known Member
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    Florida State Seminoles

    I never said the fed's literal mandate was to create unemployment. What I said was that the fed's current plan to reduce inflation is to raise unemployment. You then called me an idiot, then posted part of a transcript of an interview where Jerome Powell says they are going to increase unemployment, about 14 times.

    Sort of a side note, but one thing I thought was pretty interesting when I was watching some of the interview is this part of the transcript:
    Here's the video of that part:

    In case you didn't catch that, in the video he says, "you'd still have quite a strong labor market if unemployment were to move up a few ticks." Kind of sus that that part got left out of the transcript.

    Also, when I referenced edgelords with a horrible understanding of economics, I wasn't talking about some former hedge fund manager, I was talking about you and people like you with your "we should abolish the fed, we should adopt a deflationary currency, etc." ideas.

    As far as inflation, I do have a slight problem with the fact that the shortages driving inflation are due to lack of supply, but our prescription for reducing the inflation suppresses economic activity that would increase supply. For instance, a bunch of our domestic oil production got shut down during COVID, and before it all gets back on line, we're raising interest rates, increasing the cost of the capital that is needed to bring that production on line.

    My not at all scientific linear regression of personal consumption expenditures makes me think that consumer demand isn't super out of control or anything.

    upload_2022-5-18_8-14-38.png

    Also, the price of assets going up is not the same as inflation. Sure, inflation can have an effect on asset prices, but just because asset prices go up, does not mean we have inflation. For instance, the stock market and housing have both been going straight up for over 10 years, and the fed couldn't even get inflation to 2% for like 14 years.

    My "Iron Law of Inflation," is that they never call it inflation until wages start going up, then once they do, all you'll hear on tv is people taking about runaway inflation.
     
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  37. Hoss Bonaventure

    Hoss Bonaventure I can’t pee with clothes touching my butt
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    It got Donald Trump elected president. Stupid people thought he was highly intelligent because they thought he was rich when in reality he has no idea what the square root of 16 is and would proclaim that scientists don’t know it either if asked about it.
     
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  38. NCHusker

    NCHusker We named our yam Pam. It rhymed.
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    I think he's an idiot the same way all capitalists are idiots. Basically he doesn't know what a banana costs and he has no concept of the normal human experience and he's obsessed with seeing made up numbers go up and eventually it'll ruin the entire planet

    So super fucking stupid
     
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  39. Bo Pelinis

    Donor TMB OG
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    If you ask me the definition of intelligent it’s people who could answer incredibly difficult questions, like experts in incredibly difficult fields, who are unwilling to act like an expert when they are not one even if they know a shit ton about the subject.
     
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  40. El Tiburon

    El Tiburon Well-Known Member
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    Self-awareness is definitely a trait I would associate with intelligence.
     
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  41. Bo Pelinis

    Donor TMB OG
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    But it’s a seed for self-doubt and self-reflection and it’s really hard to be a billionaire with those things. You need all the hubris you can get
     
  42. Hoss Bonaventure

    Hoss Bonaventure I can’t pee with clothes touching my butt
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    Ask me any question about atoms.
     
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  43. NCHusker

    NCHusker We named our yam Pam. It rhymed.
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    If you can guess how many atoms are in this container you win all the atoms
     
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  44. skiedfrillet

    skiedfrillet It's not a lie if you believe it.
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    Clemson Tigers

    idk churchill had his moments
     
  45. skiedfrillet

    skiedfrillet It's not a lie if you believe it.
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    Clemson Tigers

    ask me any garbage related question
     
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  46. LuPoor

    LuPoor Cuddle with the homies watching Stand By Me
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    How do you dispose of your leachate and what volume are your sites producing
     
  47. NCHusker

    NCHusker We named our yam Pam. It rhymed.
    Donor TMB OG
    Nebraska CornhuskersChicago CubsDenver NuggetsKansas City ChiefsAvengersUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamUSA BasketballBig 8 ConferenceBig Ten ConferenceNebraska Cornhuskers alt

    Which of your tmb posts is your favorite?
     
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  48. Pile Driving Miss Daisy

    Pile Driving Miss Daisy It angries up the blood
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    Why is your dick game garbage?
     
  49. skiedfrillet

    skiedfrillet It's not a lie if you believe it.
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    Clemson Tigers

    Wastewater treatment plants and between 2 LFs about 350k gallons/day
     
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