The degree to which people got mad that I said the anti trans ads weren't coercive to votes is still crazy!
So hear me out, if this is true why isn’t it true for dukebuckeye itt? Why is the general public and Trump voter a moron who votes because they idiotically believe “burger expensive” but he is a fucking nazi who deserves to be tarred and feathered?
Nobody that has posted on this site as long as he has and been tagged into as many political threads as he has can claim to be uninformed. “I just think everyone should be left to do their own thing as long as they don’t bother anybody else. That’s why I voted for the party that is deporting law abiding immigrants, is sentencing people to life imprisonment without parole in a foreign torture prison without a trial, is destroying women’s ability to get the healthcare they need, is banning books, is banning porn sites, is criminalizing transgenderism, is cutting healthcare from the poorest Americans, and creating a giant super database to spy on American citizens,” doesn’t fly.
no more privileged than you telling the men of color how they should feel about the racism in America
I don’t agree with it I’m just saying that people who have argued for the uninformed voter narrative are seemingly saying “no you aren’t that you’re a fucking nazi” to someone who claims to be the mythical uninformed voter.
I like you. I think you’re one of the most informed intelligent people we have on this board. I just simply disagree with your opinion about racism in America. I also believe your opinion is born from a position of privilege. If you think I’m talking shit about you because of that my apologies because that’s not my intention.
I think that there are people in the world that aren’t exposed to friends, media, colleagues explaining to them that the GOP exists to empower and enrich wealthy white men at everyone else’s expense. dukebuckeye cannot claim the same ignorance. He’s been shown time and again the evil at the heart of the modern GOP and he still votes for it.
No one is mad, just laughing at your horrendous take. Just like many of your other "good election strategies" that shit the bed.
You don’t have to like Duke’s “I was not aware of that, jeepers” when pressed on a Trumpism, but you gotta admit it’s very effective at disarming the tags asking him to gargle razor wire.
I have argued that I believe that “uninformed voter” is a bullshit argument. But, it’s just funny to me that some who have argued that it’s a legitimate thing are now dismissing it.
this take brought to you by poll respondents who swear up and down that the “Kamala Harris is for they/them, Donald Trump is for you” was an inspiring message about how much more Trump cares about kitchen table issues than Democrats
Data on why people voted for one candidate over another or stayed home and didn’t vote are not great - in part because people lie about their bigoted beliefs to themselves and others. But also in part because it’s just very difficult to figure out why people that don’t vote don’t/don’t vote. The best guess you can make about motivations is to see which candidates ran on what issues and how the fared. But that’s not great either because messaging gets muddled across different races. What we do know is that Republicans and their donors felt it was very important to spend a ton of money on anti-trans ads and that immediately after the race went to Trump a bunch of Dem establishment and consult class assholes tried to sprint as fast as they could away from being associated with trans rights.
The anti trans ads are extremely useful for keeping the low prospensity maga voters engaged. There’s not a lot of evidence they did anything else.
The logical hurdle to transphobia being the secret sauce is why didn't it lead to victories for a number of other candidates who ran on it and lost
tbh 2020 dem voters not voting was the single biggest factor. Followed by a critical share of dipshit biden-trump crossover voters in the rust belt.
you said the messaging wasn’t effective at getting voters to the polls; it was, just likely among voters that the democrats had no shot of winning (but who didn’t have to vote at all and usually don’t) to say nothing of the dukebuckeye brand of voter who will pretend to support trans rights but who have zero qualms about anti-trans platforms and do think democrats get “distracted” by those issues which is not to say that the democrats should abandon vocal support for transrights, which would be the absolute worst thing you could do politically and as a matter of humanity. Just gotta have a leader with charisma and courage to shape public opinion instead of chase it.
I also don't think it was uniquely useful in base turnout vs other options. Dems do very well in races where the Republican non-trump goes anti-trans at every turn.
No one else had unlocked the messaging tying care for transrights to other issues. It isn’t a very convincing standalone message. It was effective for Trump as a way to point to why everything you think is bad is happening.
I again want to see some non-biased reporting on the credibility of it being uniquely effective, which you seem to be pointing to here.
and AGAIN, as a reason to ignore trans rights or downplay that fight in messaging to try to diffuse that message.
But you can’t really use 2024 results because the national saturation of anti-trans advertising means the down ballot messaging gets drowned out. I don’t think the comparisons are useless/meaningless but I don’t think they are conclusive because of the entire environment.
Fair. The 2024 advertising was just disturbing in how all aspects of toxic masculinity were elevated.
Silly assumption given that you’re talking about the operation that put Donald fucking Trump in the White House twice (and nearly won in 2020 despite his best efforts to make a mess of the prior four years and kill his voters in the run up to the election). It’s not like Steven Cheung or Elon Musk was the one making those decisions.
>these guys routinely outperformed high quality polling with unmatched success at reaching low propensity voters, they’re probably just lucky morons
I don't think his campaigns were well run in any way. Results don't necessarily come from good process, you know this.
the campaigns were a fucking train wreck; their messaging and use of data about the electorate was unsurpassed
you're out of your element donnie if their use of data was elite they wouldn't have been under the impression they were going to lose dramatically in '16 and operated as such, then in '24 were running defense in states they easily won! their data was bad! the campaign was bad!
the conventional data told them they were going to lose and lose badly but you think it was a complete accident they pieced together a winning coalition of states in 16 that was completely off Clinton's radar?