Florida Panthers Thread: We May Win, But I May Die

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Canesfan3234, Apr 12, 2015.

  1. Sub-Zero

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    Florida Panthers Thread: Best team in Florida
     
  2. CF3234

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    The underlying numbers for this team are excellent. If the defense can cut out the catastrophic errors and Bobrovksy can start to play more consistently, they have a stew going.

    There is a lot to like so far, but one big area of concern is that it is 100% obvious that Barkov is injured. How injured? I'm not sure. But his shoulder isn't right. He's not taking faceoffs unless absolutely necessary and is playing extremely passively defensively. Wants nothing to do with contact.
     
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  3. Sub-Zero

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    Barkov reminds me right now of that season I was really pissed at Stephen Weiss because he would pass up shooting opportunities and when he did shoot, it was inaccurate as hell.

    ....and turned out he had a broken wrist the whole time.
     
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  4. CF3234

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    what annoys me is that it's been obvious since opening night and is obviously only getting worse. It's early enough in the season where they can fix whatever needs to be fixed and have him back with plenty of time left.
     
  5. Sub-Zero

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    Yet 12 assists.

    I don't think its been noticeably worse though. He's been the same since the start.
     
  6. CF3234

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    He was taking faceoffs. Now he’s taking less than a handful a game. He’s definitely getting worse.
     
  7. Sub-Zero

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    New thread title pls
     
  8. CF3234

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    Lmao
     
  9. Sub-Zero

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    Oh you think I'm slumping? Ok here's a 3-game goal scoring streak.

    And this version of huberdeau is gosh darn amazing
     
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  10. Jesse Palmer

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    Tough stretch coming. I guess I’m happy to get the point?
     
  11. CF3234

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    They’ve had the hardest schedule of any team in the NHL to start the season.
     
  12. Jack Parkman

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    Let’s fucking go

     
  13. CF3234

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    #713 CF3234, Nov 13, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2019
  14. Jack Parkman

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    tweet deleted
     
  15. CF3234

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  16. Jack Parkman

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    Another 4 goal comeback? I’ll take it
     
  17. CF3234

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  18. Sub-Zero

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    Florida Panthers thread: Where it's Always Overtime
     
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  19. CF3234

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  20. Sub-Zero

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    Such a garbage defensive team
     
  21. CF3234

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    Awful two games.
     
  22. Sub-Zero

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    Two games? This team consistently gives up 4+. Giving up "just 2" would feel like a shutout
     
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  23. Sub-Zero

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  24. CF3234

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    It’s brutal right now.
     
  25. Jack Parkman

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    6 in a row?!

    where are the cats fans
     
  26. Jack Parkman

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  27. CF3234

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    2nd half schedule is one of the easiest in the NHL. Lot of opportunity in the second half.
     
  28. Sub-Zero

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    After signing Bob...If you told me after the all Star break we'd be #1 in the league in goals but still only be third in the division I'd be confused and kinda mad.

    And now I'm excited but kinda mad.
     
  29. CF3234

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  30. Sub-Zero

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    This entire team is one big confusing stat
     
  31. CF3234

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    They really are all over the map. there are advanced stats that say this team should be elite, shit, and on the bubble all at the same time.
     
  32. Sub-Zero

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    Because the offense is
    Actual defending a lot of times is
    And the goaltending for some baffling reason is
     
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  33. CF3234

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    pretty much nailed it. The expectation was that Bob would be 2000s era luongo. He's not that.

    This article does an outstanding job of explaining it.

    What about Bob? Examining Sergei Bobrovsky’s uncharacteristic season in Florida

    [​IMG]
    By Alison Lukan Jan 18, 2020[​IMG] 40 [​IMG]
    As everyone knows, Sergei Bobrovsky was the big free-agent signing for Florida last summer. The only active netminder to have won two Vezina trophies was expected to be one of the final pieces that, once in place, would solidify the Panthers’ role as a Stanley Cup contender.

    Unfortunately, it has not been an ideal start for Bobrovsky.

    But is what’s happening an anomaly? Has Bobrovsky changed something in his game? Are concerns about his age (31) valid? Let’s take a deeper look at what else has changed for the Russian besides just his zip code.

    Through 34 games, Bobrovsky is posting career lows in both save percentage (.896), and goals-against average (3.29). But these numbers give equal value to every shot a netminder faces.

    We can consider shot quality using expected-goals models, which factor in elements of each shot — such as location, game strength, rebound, score state — to see if an attempt has a better chance of becoming a goal. There, too, Bobrovsky has struggled. He’s below his expected save percentage (based on shot quality) by 1.03 percent and is saving just under half a goal less a game than he should be considering what’s coming his way. His total expected goals against of minus-13.96 places him 57th among 61 goaltenders who have played five games or more this season.

    The chart below from Cole Anderson, former college goaltender and current data analyst for Sportlogiq, displays Bobrovsky’s goals prevented above league-average goaltending for the last four seasons. The higher the bar, the more successful you are preventing goals against. (Click chart to enlarge)

    [​IMG]

    What we see is that, to date, Bobrovsky’s performance this year has hovered right around the league average.

    All of this culminates in the fact that it feels like Bobrovsky isn’t having the same kind of impact he has had in previous years. A team expects nights when their netminder “stands on his head” and makes big saves or steals a game. Is Bobrovsky no longer making that kind of impact, or are there just little losses around the margins?

    Using the work of SB Nation’s Alan Wells, we can measure “quality starts,” or games where a goaltender doesn’t allow more goals than expected. We can also measure “steals” when a goaltender prevents more goals than expected and his or her team wins.

    Here’s how Bobrovsky stacks up year over year in terms of the percentage of his games played that have been quality starts or steals. (Click chart to enlarge)

    [​IMG]

    Again, it appears that Bobrovsky’s positive impact has lessened.

    Can we figure out why?
    You’re hard-pressed to find goaltending experts around the league who will say a negative word about Bobrovsky. The general consensus is that talent like his doesn’t just evaporate overnight. “I’d take him on my team today,” one analyst said.

    But some things have changed.

    First, there is pressure that comes with a $10 million annual contract. That’s a real thing.

    There’s also the question of age. Bobrovsky turned 31 in September. At present, there are 31 goaltenders age 31 or older who have played in the NHL this season, and only nine come out on the positive side in terms of goals saved above league average (Mikko Koskinen, James Reimer, Thomas Greiss, Cam Talbot, Jaroslav Halak, Semyon Varlamov, Anton Khudobin, Tuukka Rask and Ben Bishop).

    Using preliminary work on goaltender aging curves by SB Nation’s Peter Flynn, we can approximate the impact of age on Bobrovsky’s performance. (Click chart to enlarge)

    [​IMG]

    We see that Bobrovsky is projected to see some decline (and more may come before his contract is up), but this certainly doesn’t speak to the big drop-off other measures suggest.

    It’s also worth mentioning that Bobrovsky has been known for slow starts. The chart below uses data from Natural Stat Trick to calculate Bobrovsky’s rolling save percentage for each of the eight years he’s been the starting goaltender. (Click chart to enlarge)

    [​IMG]

    Generally speaking, there has been a dip in Bobrovsky’s play to start the season, but, in terms of save percentage, every year ends higher than it began. So there’s reason to believe that the goaltender’s best play this season still lies ahead.

    So it’s possible that Bobrovsky is close to nearing a higher level of play, despite some age-related concerns.

    What about the play in front of the net?
    We looked at how many goals Bobrovsky was allowing compared to expectations, but what can we learn by considering context and the kind of attack he is seeing?

    The table below shows expected goals against per 60 minutes of play over the past eight years for both Bobrovsky’s current and former team ranked from strongest to weakest, defensively. (Click chart to enlarge)

    [​IMG]

    This year’s Panthers team is allowing quality against at a higher rate than any of the teams on which Bobrovsky previously played. Only four teams in the league are allowing a greater rate of quality against this season. As a result, the overall expected save percentage for Florida this season is currently the lowest a Panthers goalie has faced in seven years.

    So we know that Bobrovsky is seeing more dangerous shots than he saw in Columbus. Are there specific changes we can point to in terms of the play in front of him?

    The Panthers’ forward corps — one of the most talented in the league, according to an analyst we spoke with — is very aggressive offensively. Contrast this with Columbus’ style, which is more defensively focused. The Blue Jackets’ five-man unit is always “above the puck” trying to limit the opponent’s movement up the ice, whereas the Panthers’ offensive mindset means their forwards aren’t always thinking about getting back on defense right away.

    “I think these guys want the puck to get passed back up to them more because they like to join the rush quickly,” InGoal magazine analyst Catherine Silverman explained. “They’re almost cherry-picking the top of the circle hoping that Bob will send the puck out their way, and instead they’re just sort of leaving a passive situation where Bob is getting no support and he’s scrambling because of it.”

    This speaks to the issues in the Panthers’ defensive zone.

    First, in terms of puck movement, Florida allows a significant number of lateral passes. That can erode a goaltender’s game because they have to manage the threat of both shot and pass simultaneously. Couple this with how aggressively Bobrovsky likes to play, and the goaltender can get burned on the back-door play or when he overcommits.

    Second, it’s important to consider shot selection. The chart below shows the location of every shot against Florida this season. Areas marked blue show where shots come from at a rate below league average; red marks areas where the threat is higher.

    [​IMG]

    Overall, Florida’s defensive threat measures out at plus-1, which means it is giving opponents opportunity at a rate one percent higher than the league average.

    More specifically, Bobrovsky is seeing a large number of shots from the low slot, which means opponents can take advantage of the Russian’s style. How? Bobrovsky is strong on his feet. His tracking and reads are exceptional. When a player gets close, Bobrovsky will drop into his butterfly where he can still move well, take away space and use his active hands. But if he drops too soon, there can be a lot of net into which the attacker can shoot.

    “Bobrovsky’s got a fantastic butterfly,” Silverman said. “He’s able to play with a much wider stance because he has so much more core power to push laterally from a wider position than most guys can. We’ve seen him play incredibly low and still manage to find his edge and push back across. But since he does so well with a wide stance, he opens up a lot of holes up high when he drops too early.”

    If Florida’s defenders can block more shots or push some of those attempts farther back, Bobrovsky’s ability to succeed would improve. A goaltender usually shouldn’t have to change his game significantly, but a bit more support could help him get his feet under him.

    In summary
    It’s fair to presume that with age and some adjustment to a new team, Bobrovsky would see a dip in production this season, particularly since he has experienced slow starts before. And his play has been below expectations. But the Panthers’ defensive play in front of Bobrovsky has also increased his workload to levels he has not seen before, and that’s not helping his overall performance.

    Overall, a goaltender shouldn’t have to completely change his game when he joins a new team. But in this case, meeting in the middle — as Bobrovsky finds his footing and the defense gets better in front of him — could help everyone come closer to achieving the goals they had for this netminder, this team and this season.

    — Data via NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com. All numbers represent five-on-five performance, unless otherwise stated. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here are primers (part 1, part 2) on these numbers.

    (Top photo: Eliot J. Schechter/Getty Images)
     
  34. Sub-Zero

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    And I didn't have to read that to see it. You can still see him in top form a lot of nights but the chances just pile up that even if a goal is savable - after you've faced so many one is likely to get through. Like trying to do the 20th pull up in a row after you already did 19. Like fuck...a pull up isn't hard but I'm tired of this shit.

    And also telling that the bottom 3 teams on that quality shots chart thing is literally the last 3 years in a row for the Panthers. It's been an ongoing issue that hasn't been solved.
     
  35. CF3234

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    yup. The only defenseman on the team with a postivive defensive zone presence is Ekblad. Everyone else is awful.
     
  36. Sub-Zero

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    Matheson :blech:
     
  37. CF3234

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    He was really good last night though. His speed prevented quite a few scoring chances.
     
  38. Sub-Zero

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    He has ok games but I've seen so many mistakes this year (either giveaways or not in best position to prevent a Grade A chance) it's really what stands out to me.
     
  39. CF3234

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    He definitely isn't living up to his contract, but atleast the potential still flashes. Going to take a lot of improvement to make that contract not look like an albatross.
     
  40. Sub-Zero

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    Gotta be honest - moving him to the now GOAT 4th line in hockey was not the twist I saw coming
     
  41. CF3234

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    The helicopter line?
     
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  42. Sub-Zero

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    Yes- the one with no wings. Very clever.
     
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  43. CF3234

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    Yandle came up with it
     
  44. Jesse Palmer

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    I'm getting scared guys, I can't handle not making the playoffs again.
     
  45. CF3234

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    fully clenched over here. I hate how this team can never let me have good things.
     
  46. Sub-Zero

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    Top 5 in goals scored
    15th in league-wide standings points.

    Assholes
     
  47. Jesse Palmer

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    We are the worst.
     
  48. Jesse Palmer

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    and here we go.

    4-2.
     
  49. Sub-Zero

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    Just inexplicable how much of the defense has remained the same over the last 3-5 years given its garbage results.
     
  50. Jack Parkman

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    This goalie isn’t what he was hyped up to be