Typically I'd agree with you, but not sure this time. Like I said, I think Ballard will just dominate the game.
we'll see. I can see this number getting hit and opening up a small middle opportunity. If you like MSU, sit tight for a bit
as promised... Southern Miss -7.5 (7 units) write-ups are still on the shelf, not enough hours in the day right now.
Week 2 Write-Ups Arizona State -7 vs. Missouri (7 units) I was on Missouri last week and was wholly unimpressed by their new QB, James Franklin. Franklin is a great athlete whose natural style is very different from a Chase Daniel or Blaine Gabbert. I thought that Missouri would tailor their offense to the new man at the helm, but that certainly didn’t seem to be the case in Week 1. Franklin was very hard on himself after his performance and I am not sure that Sun Devil stadium is going to be the place to rebuild confidence. The home crowd will be absolutely electric in a nationally televised game on Friday night. The school has dubbed the game a “Black Out,” and Arizona State will be debuting some badass all-black uniforms. Seriously, they are pretty cool. Arizona State looks great so far this year under Coach Erickson. The ASU faithful have decided that this is a year to either fish or cut bait, and that importance hasn’t been lost on the staff. They have a towering QB in Osweiler and a monster at LB in Vontaze Burfict. They also have a few days of extra prep since they played on Thursday last week. Lots of injuries for both sides in this one. I think that plays slightly to Arizona State’s advantage because of the extra prep time. The Missouri defense was pretty underwhelming last week in spite of the lack of scoring, but I think they get shredded this week while Burfict and Co. have Franklin scrambling and making mistakes. Prediction: Arizona State 34, Missouri 21 Notre Dame -3.5 @ Michigan (7 units) I think many are on the same page on this one. Notre Dame was the victim of the rare game where one team dominates a game but still manages to lose by committing enough high-leverage mistakes. The perception of “Here we go again” with Notre Dame is flat out wrong. This is a very talented and dangerous team. Michigan, on the other hand, has a lot more work to do. They are still dangerous because of Shoelace, but the Irish are clearly superior on both sides of the ball. They should have a great atmosphere in a night game at the Big House, but Chip Kelly is going to have ND ready to put on a show in this rivalry matchup. Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Michigan 24 Tulsa -14 @ Tulane (7 units) Offense is obviously the story with Tulsa under the leadership of Kinne. After piling up 400 yards of offense against Oklahoma in a game they had no realistic chance to win, Tulsa’s matchup with Tulane this week is going to feel like suddenly dropping the training weight off of a baseball bat. Both teams here like to go fast (16th and 30th in pace of play last year), but Tulane just isn’t going to be able to keep up. Prediction: Tulsa 42, Tulane 23 Auburn +7 vs. MSU (7 units) I’d like to preface this whole rant by disclosing the fact that I’m a huge Alabama fan. I also consider the SEC to be my “bread-and-butter” as far as gut feeling and knowledge. Deep breath… Okay, everyone needs to calm down a bit. I watched every play of the Auburn-Utah State game and am well aware of their many issues. Their personnel losses from last year are just tremendous. I expected them to struggle all year long and was even on Utah State last week. With that said, Auburn is a team that knows how to win. Their comeback was nothing short of miraculous after the way that they were dominated last week in every area of the game. Every team shits the bed a time or two during the season, but only teams with certain qualities can overcome them. Auburn is one of those teams – for now. They don’t know that they’re bad yet. They don’t know that they are allowed to lose. My preseason prediction was for Auburn to win 6 games this year. They are going to struggle in almost every game, and in turn, they will lose their confidence. For now, though, last week will serve to galvanize the team. Major improvements can be seen between Week 1 and Week 2 for a team, and I think the Auburn staff will patch a few of the holes exposed last Saturday. Mississippi State is a good team this year. Relf and Ballard lead Mullen’s offense – a pretty potent combination. The Bulldogs always play good defense. However, I think that MSU is a bit overhyped this year. I have felt that way since the beginning of the season. They are clearly the 4th best team in their division, although that’s not an insult by any stretch of the imagination. Speaking of the division, this is a hugely important SEC West matchup. Road teams don’t waltz into opponents’ stadiums in SEC West matchups and come away victorious without leaving behind a pound of flesh. Remember the 3-2 Auburn win against MSU a few years ago? Those days are obviously long gone, but 7 points for the home team is just way too many. These teams are very familiar with each other, and Auburn will keep it close. I’ve got to cut this off now because I’m getting tired of writing things that are pro-Auburn. I’m going to hold my nose and expect a nice win against the spread. Prediction: Mississippi State 30, Auburn 28 Southern Miss -7.5 @ Marshall I got the opportunity to watch both teams’ games last week. I was on Southern Miss, but the tropical storm moving north from Gulf really fouled everything up in that game. I am a huge fan of their QB as a leader and performer in Austin Davis and think they have put together a really nice team this year. That offense should be ultra effective against a Marshall defense that showed some flashes against West Virginia but was absolutely pathetic in getting off the field on 3rd down. Oddly enough, their game was affected by the weather as well. It has to be deflating to concede a victory to your instate rival. Southern Miss should outclass the Herd in this one and cruise to an easy win Prediction: Southern Miss 34, Marshall 20
Hmm, I like Michigan and MSU, but you bring up solid points for the other side. Will be good games to watch.
Week 2 action plays............ Duke +21 (3 units) Texas/BYU UNDER 48.5 (3 units) UGA/USCe UNDER 51.5 (3 units) South Florida -19.5 (2 units) USC -9.5 (2 units) ECU/VT UNDER 63.5 (2 units) SMU/UTEP UNDER 54 (2 units) Akron +15 (2 units)
OKST -14 FIU +7 Under 53.5 ORST but wait Toledo +21 CMU +14 SDSU -9 Over 56 waiting on UNC -10 or less. Under 43 Oregon -24 Stanford 1H VT -20 AF+3 Cal -6 Minnesota -21 N.C. State -2.5 Rice +1 Wash -3 Over 52 Under 51 UNLV +14 Wazu QB hurt Temple -14 Nebraska -27 UF -22 BSU +21.5 UVA -5.5 WKU +11.5 Houston -21 BYU +6 Under 48 Ark St -14 Kent -9 Van +3 ND -3 U 55.5
good luck to you, but a couple of things: -the intent of this thread is to provide me a place to post and track my own picks. I welcome any and all discussion but posts consisting purely of picks are probably better placed elsewhere -lots of those lines are going to be hard to find. FIU +7 and CMU +14 immediately stand out -those picks are really difficult to read formatted like that
Sorry about that. These were my shots at the openers Sunday night before we recorded the podcast. I won't do that any more. Good luck to you this week. I like AF to beat TCU a lot
there's maybe 4 guys already with their own threads for picks...I would think everyone/anyone is welcome to do the same. Looking at some of yours, I think you probably have info/input that others would consider valuable. I don't think I've seen anyone on UNLV.
absolutely no problem. I actually listened to a good bit of the podcast that you posted. Lots of good stuff there. In that regard, ditto to Expo Park, start a thread and share your thoughts
You guys think it will come back up? I guess I waited too long. Hopefully it doesn't dip below that number right now.
probably won't ever get back to 7. It may bounce around between 4.5 and 5.5, but that is because it is no-mans-land as far as the number goes
Man, I took TCU and now you guys got me feeling iffy on it. It's part of a parlay for me with Wisconsin, Texas, Tennessee and one other. I did hit my Oklahoma St 14.5 last night, need Louisville to cover -4 tonight.
Wow, ASU is up to -10? Good for you for getting in early. Did something happen to make it jump like that or was it just pounded?
I would be all over Missouri for the middle...if I had ASU -7... Mainly because I think there's a chance ASU loses the game anyway...Pac-10 schools don't perform up to competition under the spotlight of national games.
I don't see any new injury news, looks like ASU is one of those plays where public and big money are aligned
I'm on mizz+10. Taking a chance against public and big money. No way I would take asu on road laying 10. Bol to everyone
push last night. I'm going to add a 5 unit parlay of my top two plays today. Final card: Arizona State -7 (7 units) P Notre Dame -3.5 (7 units) Tulsa -14 (7 units) Auburn +7 (7 units) Southern Miss -7.5 (7 units) Duke +21 (3 units) Texas/BYU UNDER 48.5 (3 units) UGA/USCe UNDER 51.5 (3 units) South Florida -19.5 (2 units) USC -9.5 (2 units) ECU/VT UNDER 63.5 (2 units) SMU/UTEP UNDER 54 (2 units) Akron +15 (2 units) Parlay: ND-3 and S.Miss -7.5 (5 units to win 13)
Really liking these picks bolded. I have a feeling you may get burned on the SMU/UTEP under though. Good luck
Taking a beating so far today. 9-6 on the day. 25-12 on the year. Southern Miss and fucking Purdue killed me. Ohio St didn't help at all though...
6 turnovers and Vin Curry happened. Also they pinned us between our 1-5 yard line 6 times on punts. Just bad play and coaching got us today. I would stay away from any USM lines for awhile. We may be a bad team, but could jump up and play lights out against the next team. Going to be roller coaster season in Hattiesburg.
I had a few, but some singles too. But still, 9-6 pisses me off when a few of those should have been wins ya know? Ohio State choked, Purdue is god awful, Southern Miss is horrible. Iowa....well...
Week 2 results: 6-8-1 (-16.9 units) Arizona State -7 (7 units) P Notre Dame -3.5 (7 units) L Tulsa -14 (7 units) W Auburn +7 (7 units) W Southern Miss -7.5 (7 units) L Duke +21 (3 units) L Texas/BYU UNDER 48.5 (3 units) W UGA/USCe UNDER 51.5 (3 units) L South Florida -19.5 (2 units) W USC -9.5 (2 units) L ECU/VT UNDER 63.5 (2 units) W SMU/UTEP UNDER 54 (2 units) W Akron +15 (2 units) L Parlay: ND-3 and S.Miss -7.5 (5 units to win 13) L Notre Dame ML -170 (5 units) L Obviously Notre Dame wiped out what could have been a great weekend as they were my strongest play of the week. A Notre Dame win would have made me 8-6-1 (+11.3) for the week. A small hole to dig out of for the rest of the season now, but that's why money management is key. Truthfully, I was pretty happy with my capping on almost every play. ND, Duke, and USC all could have easily covered if a few breaks had gone the other way. The UGA/USCe total obviously blew up in the 4th quarter but was the victim of several defensive scores. Until next week....... YTD: 14-15-3 (-12.4 units)
Week 3. Writeups later in the week if I can. Strong week for me. No action plays. Ole Miss -1.5 (8 units) Clemson -3 (8 units) Florida -9.5 (8 units) UCF -5 (8 units) Penn State -7.5 (7 units) Wyoming +9 (7 units)