This will be my home for my NFL plays. My approach to the NFL is completely different than college football. In my opinion, there is virtually no way to beat the numbers on Sundays. Almost all critical information is out there for public consumption before each game, and it's pretty nearly a "perfect market." You can wager almost any amount of money you desire on an NFL spread because Vegas is more confident in these numbers than any others. To that end, I don't bother with trying to set my own lines or create any otherwise mechanical numbers. I only try to understand why a line is set where it is and work from there. I believe that the NFL is a legitimate opportunity for people with a "feel" for the game. Yes, it sounds like bullshit, but it's an integral part to the equation. Because of my perfect market theory I can with good conscience go about making my selections in the NFL and back my convictions as a see fit. I'll be posting plays with either a very short blurb or none at all here. Ranging from 1-10 units. Here's to a good season
Thursday, September 7th New Orleans Saints +4.5 (7 units) Saints the hungrier team here in addition to having a reloaded running attack Edit: was able to grab 4.5 through my local
Saints ML +210 (3 units) I don't have the stats in front of me, but it's staggering how little the spread comes into play in the NFL. Picking the Saints ATS and sprinkling a bit straight up as well.
thanks. Its basically what I consider my main hobby. Tough to explain to folks when they ask what I like to do outside of work
saints did their best to screw that one up. Probably blew the game and cover by that playcall on 4th and inches
hard to say I was on the wrong side tonight. The saints played a great game but a couple of play calls in the red zone costs them some points. At the end of it all, they had a chance to cover and/or take the game to OT and win outright. Great game
not sure when this happened, but I knew something was up: AdamSchefter Adam Schefter Fox reported Saints WR Marques Colston broke his collarbone. Being told injury will sideline him at least four weeks, probably longer.
I think that happened on his last catch in the seam that put them at the 10 or whatever. I saw him come up holding it and said something out loud here at the house bc I have him in fantasy lol.
Agree with that approach and just try to look at who the matchups are for pro teams, sometimes giving a slight edge to home teams.
Sunday, September 11th TB Bucs -1.5 (5 units) TB Bucs 1H -0.5 (5 units) ATL Falcons -2 (5 units) ATL Falcons 1H -0.5 (5 units) STL Rams +4.5 (5 units) STL Rams 1H +2.5 (5 units) ARI Cards -6.5 (5 units) ARI Cards 1H -4 (5 units) Parlay: ARI Cards -6.5 and Open Slot (5 units)
adding PIT Steelers +1 (5 units) PIT Steelers 1H +0.5 (5 units) also making the Falcons the open leg of that pending parlay Cards -6.5 and Falcons -2
An impressive amount of carnage as the Cardinals were the only winning side of the whole lot. On days like that, all you can do is laugh. 3-17 (-54.2 units)
Fade away, looking to keep this shit going The AFC East is my conference by nature of the Pats being my team. Give me Belichick and Co in a season opener... but only for the first half for now. The numbers are pretty overwhelming tonight for Patriots backers (>90%) so I'm a little suspicious of a backdoor cover. The Patriots' new defense should keep the Dolphins off balance to start the game, and I expect a fast start from the Patriots (14-0?). I'll have another look at halftime. Field conditions and intra-division familiarity will keep this one low-scoring. I'll have another look at halftime. Patriots 1H -4 (10 units) Patriots 1Q -0.5 (10 units) Pats/Fins 1H under 23.5 (10 units) Parlay: Pats 1H -4 and 1H under 23.5 (5 units to win 13) off I ride into my blaze of glory... Looking at the Raiders in the 2nd game if you'd like to preemptively fade me there edit: I will add that Reggie Bush has historically been a huge matchup worry for Belichick. He seems to really harp on his skills every time they play him. I expect them to pay a lot (maybe too much) attention to Bush tonight. I think he'll still have at least one explosive play with the amount of touches he's going to get tonight
going back the other way now... 5 units each Fins 2H +4 Fins 3Q +0.5 (+115) Fins 4Q +0.5 (-125) Patriots have a soft defense that will leave the backdoor open. Dolphins pass rush picking up after the line shuffle for the Pats
yeah if the call on the field had been correct on the long pass (down short of the goal line) the clock probably wouldve run out