FSUsem's 2015 College Bowl Game Discussion Thread (22-15-1, +21 units after juice!)

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 17, 2015.

  1. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Terrible bowl season re: game excitement, another winning season!
     
  2. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
    Atlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsFlorida State Seminoles

    Backdoooorrrrr
     
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  3. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
    Donor

    I played it safe :(
     
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  4. tiger tommy

    tiger tommy Well-Known Member

    Thanks for another great season sem! :beerchug:
     
    FSUsem likes this.
  5. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Glad we could both win!
     
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  6. Space

    Space Miami

    In case anyone is interested I believe FSUsem's System A went a little better than 60% before the championship game.
     
  7. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Yes sir. System A has a proven track record of over 60% reliability for almost a decade. With the title game it went 26-15, 63.4% for this bowl season.
     
  8. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    what was the overall win % (SIAP)?
     
  9. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    FSUsem was last seen:

    Jan 13, 2016

    :ohdear:
     
  10. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Interesting.
     
  11. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    He's an OG he'll come back around when he knows he's most loved.
     
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  12. rezy

    rezy Member
    Donor
    Florida State SeminolesNew York YankeesLos Angeles ClippersNew York GiantsManchester United

    Hope sem makes another comeback with bowls being announced in 10 hours
     
  13. Craig Pettis

    Craig Pettis The first million is the hardest- Hitler
    Donor
    Memphis TigersTennessee VolunteersSt. Louis CardinalsMemphis GrizzliesMetal

  14. hawkeyeOUTeast

    hawkeyeOUTeast Love it or leave it!
    Donor

  15. wolfpck

    wolfpck haters gonna hate
    Donor
    North Carolina State Wolfpack

    Someone has to have his number or some shit right? RIGHT?
     
  16. rezy

    rezy Member
    Donor
    Florida State SeminolesNew York YankeesLos Angeles ClippersNew York GiantsManchester United

    If i remember correctly, he had a long disappearance before last time as well so hopefully he remembers to come back again this year
     
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  17. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
    Atlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsFlorida State Seminoles

    Give me System A this year
     
  18. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

  19. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Sheet will be posted tonight.
     
  20. wolfpck

    wolfpck haters gonna hate
    Donor
    North Carolina State Wolfpack

    AHHHH YEAHHHH
     
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  21. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Pittsburgh PenguinsOhio State BuckeyesPittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Reds

    We all appreciate this
     
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  22. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    [​IMG]
     
    #472 Juan, Dec 6, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2016
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  23. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    No problem. It used to take me a 3-4 days to finish the entire sheet. Had an excel wizard assist and got the time down to a couple hours.
     
  24. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Pittsburgh PenguinsOhio State BuckeyesPittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Reds

    Will you be posting you plays too?
     
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  25. animal_mother

    animal_mother Well-Known Member
    Clemson TigersTennessee TitansLiverpool

  26. Craig Pettis

    Craig Pettis The first million is the hardest- Hitler
    Donor
    Memphis TigersTennessee VolunteersSt. Louis CardinalsMemphis GrizzliesMetal

    Thank you sweet :raptorjesus: I was starting to worry
     
  27. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Yes. Ill make a new thread tonight.
     
  28. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    Care to update the numbers too?

    This is what I had from last year

    It is setup just like years past. There are two total systems, the off o/u and def o/u. The systems project what the total should be based on the offenses and defenses. The average is, of course, the average of the two which is generally near the total for the game. When all three total columns have a total above or below the posted game total, I've bolded and underlined the row for that bowl to indicate the agreement.

    There are two side systems and one system pulled from FoxSheets. My systems are the system A and B columns. The main difference between the two is that System B factors in strength of schedule. The values in the columns represent what each system thinks the spread should be. When all three systems have a line that is above or below the posted side for the bowl, the row for the bowl is bolded and underlined to indicate the agreement.

    If anyone has any more questions, let me know and I'll be happy to help.
    Over the last 3 years
    When A&B agree, the side has gone 46-19 ATS (71%)

    When all 3 agree, the side has gone 27-12 (69%)

    System A is 66-37 (64%) over the past 3 years, 105-64 (62%) over the past 5
    When System A has the underdog favored, the underdog is 28-13 (68%) ATS
    When the Def O/U has favored the under by more than 6 points, it has gone 48-30 (62%)
    The best O/U predictor is when the Avg O/U column is more than 6 points off in either direction. Which
    ever way the Avg O/U column favors has gone 17-7 (71%).\
    For those who are new or need refreshing to read the sheet...
    -System A is based on raw statistical data
    -System B is similar to A but adds in strength of schedule
    -The system numbers are what it thinks the spread should be. For instance, System A thinks Oregon
    should be favored by 12.8. Since the line is Oregon -9, System A likes Oregon.
    -The numbers in parentheses in the spread and totals sections are the opening numbers.
    -Off O/U is guessing the O/U based strictly on offensive data. Def O/U is...you guessed it...based strictly on defensive data. The average o/u is an average of the two.

    Getting rid of the SF Outplay. I added it a couple years ago for more reference on the sheet but it was taking away from the system and getting in the way of making money. Last year, using the original three columns, when all 3 sides agreed it went 8-4 (67%) ATS.

    When System A has the underdog favored, the underdog is 28-13 (68%) ATS

    When the Def O/U has favored the under by more than 6 points, it has gone 48-30 (62%)

    The best O/U predictor is when the Avg O/U column is more than 6 points off in either direction. Which ever way the Avg O/U column favors has gone 17-7 (71%).
     
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