FSUsem's 2016 Bowl Season Picks & Discussion (12-11, +0.9 Units)(12/30 & 12/31 picks pg 14)

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 6, 2016.

  1. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Lets get it started
     
  2. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    It is setup just like years past. There are two total systems, the off o/u and def o/u. The systems project what the total should be based on the offenses and defenses. The average is, of course, the average of the two which is generally near the total for the game. When all three total columns have a total above or below the posted game total, I've bolded and underlined the row for that bowl to indicate the agreement.

    There are two side systems and one system pulled from FoxSheets. My systems are the system A and B columns. The main difference between the two is that System B factors in strength of schedule. The values in the columns represent what each system thinks the spread should be. When all three systems have a line that is above or below the posted side for the bowl, the row for the bowl is bolded and underlined to indicate the agreement.

    In the spread and total column, the number in parentheses is the opening number. If there are no parentheses then obviously it hasn't moved or has moved back to the opening number. All lines are from CRIS.

    If anyone has any more questions, let me know and I'll be happy to help.
     
    jasonms20 likes this.
  3. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    [​IMG]
     
    #3 FSUsem, Dec 6, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2016
  4. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Past Four Years:

    System A is 93-57 ATS (62%)

    When A&B agree, the side has gone 66-31 ATS (68%)

    When all 3 agree, the side has gone 36-18 ATS (67%)
     
  5. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Everyone feel free to post your picks and discuss the games as the bowl season goes on. We all have the same goal. :rain::rain:
     
  6. Craig Pettis

    Craig Pettis The first million is the hardest- Hitler
    Donor
    Memphis TigersTennessee VolunteersSt. Louis CardinalsMemphis GrizzliesMetal

  7. rezy

    rezy Member
    Donor
    Florida State SeminolesNew York YankeesLos Angeles ClippersNew York GiantsManchester United

    Let's make some $$$
     
    The Hebrew Husker likes this.
  8. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

  9. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    The sheet doesn't like my Alabama -14 play :tebow:
     
  10. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    Already took New Mexico -7, Southern Miss -3, and Arkansas State +6
     
    Hatteras888 and LeVar Burton like this.
  11. wolfpck

    wolfpck haters gonna hate
    Donor
    North Carolina State Wolfpack

    Am I misreading or does system A and B essentially agree on a side in all but a handful of games?
     
    LeVar Burton likes this.
  12. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    If anyone would like the sheet emailed to them, message me your email address.
     
    Juan likes this.
  13. bakonole

    bakonole Well-Known Member

    No bolded plays on any of the totals?

    I don't know what the O/U's opened
     
  14. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Seems true. I think I counted about 30 of the 40 bowl games. The past four years they've agreed on 97 out of the 150 games (about 2 out of every 3 games) so it's a little bit above average
     
  15. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    As of last night I hadn't seen any of the totals posted yet. I'll keep an eye out.
     
    bakonole likes this.
  16. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    I updated the sheet with the totals.

    I also put in advance lines I found the Navy and Army bowl games. The only bigger book that had them was 5dimes. Caesars also has an advance line for Army at -9.5.
     
    Juan likes this.
  17. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
    Atlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsFlorida State Seminoles

    Pitt still sitting at 4.5 . Looks real juicy
     
  18. asmith2021

    asmith2021 Member

    Still doing the stars as well?
     
    FSUsem likes this.
  19. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    I forgot are these numbers if you follow blindly, or based on the picks you actually post
     
  20. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Yes sir
     
  21. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Thats just following the sheet blindly
     
    The Hebrew Husker likes this.
  22. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Thanks for the hard work!
     
  23. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    It does. Love that bet. And NC State.
     
    Russellin4885 and wolfpck like this.
  24. Jaxx Sterling

    Jaxx Sterling Well-Known Member
    Donor

    I don't mean to hijack the thread by departing from the bowl sheet discussion, but does anyone remember the strategy someone posted last bowl season about team totals prior to the New Year's Day games? I've checked the old threads, but haven't been able to find it. The process involved something to the effect of taking the 1h under and if it hits, you are done. If it misses, double the number of units on 2h under. I'm not sure whether I have the terms correct, or whether there were exceptions, but I followed the strategy and remember doing well with it. TIA.
     
  25. wolfpck

    wolfpck haters gonna hate
    Donor
    North Carolina State Wolfpack

    https://www.the-mainboard.com/index...urry-it-ends-january-1st-jk-all-bowls.118718/
     
    Jaxx Sterling likes this.
  26. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    System A's line for Army-Navy was Army -13.0, System B (because Army faced the second easiest schedule in the nation) was Navy -3.7. These lines don't factor in that Navy lost their starting QB.
     
    Juan, undrtow, b7 and 2 others like this.
  27. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Tack it on!
     
    FSUsem likes this.
  28. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Sheet updated. Might make some plays in the next few days.
     
  29. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Just wondering why is Hawaii game blank?
     
  30. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    This updated after army and navy game?
     
  31. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Yes. The only game that still doesnt have a spread is the Hawaii bowl bc of the uncertainty of the MTSU QB situation.
     
  32. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Awesome. Thanks.
     
  33. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    SIAP, records on the system for totals?
     
  34. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Last year when the Avg O/U number was 4 or more points off, the side that the system favored went 8-3 ATS.

    Def OU used to be hot but faded the past couple years with a bunch of games going over.
     
    The Hebrew Husker likes this.
  35. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    ***SD State +4
    ***App. State +1
    ****Arkansas St. +6
    **Arkansas St./UCF Under 49.5
     
  36. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Had to buy some .5s but were locked and loaded. My site doesn't have totals up yet.
     
  37. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    I'm passing for now on the New Mexico bowl. Sheet is somewhat close to the spread. UTSA first bowl game, lots of motivation. Really high winds (25-30 mph +). Theres some rlm on the under (2/3rds of money on over, total dropped from 64 to 62), but new mexico could easily put up 40+ points. Too many intangibles going both directions.

    I was going to make SD State a larger play due to motivation but Houston hiring from within scared me off. Love the underdog play against an overrated Houston team who went from playing in a New Years Six bowl to the second bowl game of the season. Houston is staying at Mandalay Bay. Hopefully the trams are broken.

    Really like Appalachian State, the better team, getting points. I look for them to run all over Toledo. Could turn into a shootout but I think the App. St. defense prevents that.

    UCF is trash. They haven't beaten a bowl team all year. They ended the season losing by 15 and 17. The seniors on the team went to the Fiesta bowl. Yeah they were 0-12 last year and might be excited to return to a bowl but they stay home in Orlando. Arkansas St ended the season winning 7 of 8 and their head coach stayed after rumors of him leaving. I don't think UCF scores more than 14. Love getting almost a TD.
     
  38. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    don't know shit about the games prior to 12/26 but starting that date I agree with damn near every pick by System A. Only one I'm going against is Clemson who I think keeps it within a FG or wins outright.
     
    jasonms20 likes this.
  39. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Im not happy that the Auburn number keeps dropping. I was hoping to get the moneyline when it came out.
     
    jasonms20 likes this.
  40. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Do any of you blindly bet like .5-1u on all system A games?
     
  41. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    There is major reverse line action on this game. I got Auburn at +4.5 but I wanted the ML as close to 2 to 1 as possible. Currently it is sitting at +150 give or take.
     
  42. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    I wanna lock auburn now but hate betting bowls too early since suspensions/injuries can happen

    Locked it small for now.
     
    LeVar Burton likes this.
  43. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Auburn down to +3 now....

    Went against my rule and locked in Boise -7.5 small, like auburn just to get a little bit in case some stuff happens or the line moves.
     
    Juan likes this.
  44. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    A lot is in Boise's favor, It's one of my favorite sides of this bowl season.
     
    The Hebrew Husker likes this.
  45. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Yep A/B systems like it, plus just the situation itself. I took a little now incase it goes to like 8-9
     
  46. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    *****Washington +15
     
    Hatteras888, TLAU and tiger tommy like this.
  47. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    I got on it a couple days ago at +16 and thought it would drop to +14 as we got near gametime but its dropping quick. Seems like the books are split right now between -14.5 and -15 with a few stragglers at -15.5.
     
    tiger tommy likes this.
  48. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    I really like Alabama -14
     
  49. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
    Donor
    Tiger Woods

    Not saying they won't boat race Washington, but of course you do. If I were a Bama fan, I'd like it as well
     
    LeVar Burton likes this.