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Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 6, 2016.
Lets get it started
It is setup just like years past. There are two total systems, the off o/u and def o/u. The systems project what the total should be based on the offenses and defenses. The average is, of course, the average of the two which is generally near the total for the game. When all three total columns have a total above or below the posted game total, I've bolded and underlined the row for that bowl to indicate the agreement.
There are two side systems and one system pulled from FoxSheets. My systems are the system A and B columns. The main difference between the two is that System B factors in strength of schedule. The values in the columns represent what each system thinks the spread should be. When all three systems have a line that is above or below the posted side for the bowl, the row for the bowl is bolded and underlined to indicate the agreement.
In the spread and total column, the number in parentheses is the opening number. If there are no parentheses then obviously it hasn't moved or has moved back to the opening number. All lines are from CRIS.
If anyone has any more questions, let me know and I'll be happy to help.
Past Four Years:
System A is 93-57 ATS (62%)
When A&B agree, the side has gone 66-31 ATS (68%)
When all 3 agree, the side has gone 36-18 ATS (67%)
Everyone feel free to post your picks and discuss the games as the bowl season goes on. We all have the same goal.
Let's make some $$$
The sheet doesn't like my Alabama -14 play
Already took New Mexico -7, Southern Miss -3, and Arkansas State +6
Am I misreading or does system A and B essentially agree on a side in all but a handful of games?
If anyone would like the sheet emailed to them, message me your email address.
No bolded plays on any of the totals?
I don't know what the O/U's opened
Seems true. I think I counted about 30 of the 40 bowl games. The past four years they've agreed on 97 out of the 150 games (about 2 out of every 3 games) so it's a little bit above average
As of last night I hadn't seen any of the totals posted yet. I'll keep an eye out.
I updated the sheet with the totals.
I also put in advance lines I found the Navy and Army bowl games. The only bigger book that had them was 5dimes. Caesars also has an advance line for Army at -9.5.
Pitt still sitting at 4.5 . Looks real juicy
Still doing the stars as well?
I forgot are these numbers if you follow blindly, or based on the picks you actually post
Thats just following the sheet blindly
Thanks for the hard work!
It does. Love that bet. And NC State.
I don't mean to hijack the thread by departing from the bowl sheet discussion, but does anyone remember the strategy someone posted last bowl season about team totals prior to the New Year's Day games? I've checked the old threads, but haven't been able to find it. The process involved something to the effect of taking the 1h under and if it hits, you are done. If it misses, double the number of units on 2h under. I'm not sure whether I have the terms correct, or whether there were exceptions, but I followed the strategy and remember doing well with it. TIA.
System A's line for Army-Navy was Army -13.0, System B (because Army faced the second easiest schedule in the nation) was Navy -3.7. These lines don't factor in that Navy lost their starting QB.
Tack it on!
Sheet updated. Might make some plays in the next few days.
Just wondering why is Hawaii game blank?
This updated after army and navy game?
Yes. The only game that still doesnt have a spread is the Hawaii bowl bc of the uncertainty of the MTSU QB situation.
SIAP, records on the system for totals?
Last year when the Avg O/U number was 4 or more points off, the side that the system favored went 8-3 ATS.
Def OU used to be hot but faded the past couple years with a bunch of games going over.
***SD State +4
***App. State +1
****Arkansas St. +6
**Arkansas St./UCF Under 49.5
Had to buy some .5s but were locked and loaded. My site doesn't have totals up yet.
I'm passing for now on the New Mexico bowl. Sheet is somewhat close to the spread. UTSA first bowl game, lots of motivation. Really high winds (25-30 mph +). Theres some rlm on the under (2/3rds of money on over, total dropped from 64 to 62), but new mexico could easily put up 40+ points. Too many intangibles going both directions.
I was going to make SD State a larger play due to motivation but Houston hiring from within scared me off. Love the underdog play against an overrated Houston team who went from playing in a New Years Six bowl to the second bowl game of the season. Houston is staying at Mandalay Bay. Hopefully the trams are broken.
Really like Appalachian State, the better team, getting points. I look for them to run all over Toledo. Could turn into a shootout but I think the App. St. defense prevents that.
UCF is trash. They haven't beaten a bowl team all year. They ended the season losing by 15 and 17. The seniors on the team went to the Fiesta bowl. Yeah they were 0-12 last year and might be excited to return to a bowl but they stay home in Orlando. Arkansas St ended the season winning 7 of 8 and their head coach stayed after rumors of him leaving. I don't think UCF scores more than 14. Love getting almost a TD.
don't know shit about the games prior to 12/26 but starting that date I agree with damn near every pick by System A. Only one I'm going against is Clemson who I think keeps it within a FG or wins outright.
Im not happy that the Auburn number keeps dropping. I was hoping to get the moneyline when it came out.
Do any of you blindly bet like .5-1u on all system A games?
There is major reverse line action on this game. I got Auburn at +4.5 but I wanted the ML as close to 2 to 1 as possible. Currently it is sitting at +150 give or take.
I wanna lock auburn now but hate betting bowls too early since suspensions/injuries can happen
Locked it small for now.
Auburn down to +3 now....
Went against my rule and locked in Boise -7.5 small, like auburn just to get a little bit in case some stuff happens or the line moves.
A lot is in Boise's favor, It's one of my favorite sides of this bowl season.
Yep A/B systems like it, plus just the situation itself. I took a little now incase it goes to like 8-9
I got on it a couple days ago at +16 and thought it would drop to +14 as we got near gametime but its dropping quick. Seems like the books are split right now between -14.5 and -15 with a few stragglers at -15.5.
I really like Alabama -14
Not saying they won't boat race Washington, but of course you do. If I were a Bama fan, I'd like it as well