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Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 15, 2017.
On the way in a few...
It is setup just like years past. There are two total systems, the off o/u and def o/u. The systems project what the total should be based on the offenses and defenses. The average is, of course, the average of the two which is generally near the total for the game.
There is one system pulled from FoxSheets called SF Power. My systems are the system A and B columns. The main difference between the two is that System B factors in strength of schedule. The values in the columns represent what each system thinks the spread should be.
In the spread and total column, the number in parentheses is the opening number. If there are no parentheses then obviously it hasn't moved or has moved back to the opening number. All lines are from Pinnacle.
If anyone has any more questions, let me know and I'll be happy to help.
Past Five Years:
System A is 111-79 ATS (58.4%)
When A&B agree, the side has gone 80-52 ATS (60.6%)
When all 3 agree, the side has gone 42-27 ATS (60.9%)
Well where’s it at FSUsem
Finished the sides, doing the totals as we speak. Shouldn't be much longer.
Good night, some discussion tomorrow
Past 2 years when Avg O/U column was 4 or more points off from the final total, that side has gone 14-7 (67%)
disagree with the oregon game.
I'm new to this gambling section, so any explanation on how to interpret this is appreciated. Are you saying that when A & B agree, they've covered 60% of the time? Are the ones bolded/underlined your best bets?
The models seem to really favor all the BIG10 schools more than Vegas. Almost all of them were stronger than the Vegas spread thought.
Gotta remember that Oregon was the tale of two seasons. With Herbert and without. 40 pt difference on offense.
Christmas has come early.
Someone can correct me but when A/B agree it's 60.6% example of this is TCU. It's not bolded because all 3 don't agree since SF Power has a PK
The bolded ones are when all systems agree so A B and SFP agree, or all 3 over under categories.
Got it, thanks.
Yes, remember System A is purely statistics driven. System B takes into consideration strength of schedule. This why you'll typically see System A favor strong G5 teams that have been destroying weaker competition over weaker P5 teams and then the line come back towards the P5 team when strength of schedule is taken into account with System B.
Have a few picks in for tomorrow but waiting on a couple more to see who everyone is riding with
Correct me if I am wrong, but A&B agree on Ga St, Marshall, and Boise today.
I was already on Marshall, getting GA St +7.
FSUsem Any plays today?
We got any plays today or nah??
I'm here for todays plays.
Nothing on Troy game for me. Looking at other games. Will be on the oregon/boise under
No play for me on WKU/GaSt. Sheet likes GaSt but I just cant bring myself to bet on that offense.
As you know, the system doesn't account for injuries so the Oregon game may be shaded more to Boise bc of Herbert missing for half the season.
Yeah I took a chance on the over on that one. Hoping Herbert being back will add 7 points to what the computer thinks.
***Boise St./Oregon Under 62
Yeah I agree the number should be higher than the comp with Herbert back. I just like the Boise defense though against Oregon who will have a new play caller.
Yeah I probably should have just avoided this game altogether but being a Duck fan I couldn't help myself.
Has Arroyo called plays before? I looked at his background and saw a stint as OC somewhere. He didn't call plays with Taggart at all this year, right?
Taggart called plays this year and most Duck fans hated it. Arroyo has called plays before (at TB Bucs I think for 1 year) but not yet this year.
Yeah thats what I was reading this morning. Too conservative and predictable? A little worrisome obviously on my end.
Wow someone(s) coming in really hard on Georgia State to beat the number back down to where it opened.
What did y'all hate about Taggarts play calling? Not disagreeing with you but Just curious as a FSU fan who didn't get to watch
I read this a little while ago.
Wow, down from WKU -7 to WKU -4.5 in the final thirty minutes.
Was really predictable, especially when Herbert went out. When they were playing the backup QB, there was no creativity and it rarely felt like they had a plan. It was just run, run, pass, and punt.
Duck fans loved Taggart for a lot of the program management stuff and recruiting, but wanted him to give up play calling to Arroyo or Cristobal all season.
Aso on **Marshall 1st Half +2
Thats all for today for me:
***Boise St./Oregon Under 62
**Marshall 1st Half +2
pick 6 and a 90 yard fumble recovery for a td. Ugh
and another pick 6. LOL
Part of me wants to tease Ohio St with everything. Sheet loves them, and they fit this angle above
Oh baby. Here we go
And just like that. We're cooked. Haha
Fuck Boise for that long pass that led to their score