FSUsem's 2017 College Bowl Season Picks & Discussion (Picks: 15-16, System A: 23-16)

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 15, 2017.

  1. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    [​IMG]

    On the way in a few...
     
  2. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    It is setup just like years past. There are two total systems, the off o/u and def o/u. The systems project what the total should be based on the offenses and defenses. The average is, of course, the average of the two which is generally near the total for the game.

    There is one system pulled from FoxSheets called SF Power. My systems are the system A and B columns. The main difference between the two is that System B factors in strength of schedule. The values in the columns represent what each system thinks the spread should be.

    In the spread and total column, the number in parentheses is the opening number. If there are no parentheses then obviously it hasn't moved or has moved back to the opening number. All lines are from Pinnacle.

    If anyone has any more questions, let me know and I'll be happy to help.
     
  3. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Past Five Years:

    System A is 111-79 ATS (58.4%)

    When A&B agree, the side has gone 80-52 ATS (60.6%)

    When all 3 agree, the side has gone 42-27 ATS (60.9%)
     
  4. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
    Donor TMB OG
    Oregon DucksGreen Bay PackersDetroit Red WingsBayern Munich

    Well where’s it at FSUsem
     
  5. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Finished the sides, doing the totals as we speak. Shouldn't be much longer.
     
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  6. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Updated Sheet
     

    Attached Files:

    #6 FSUsem, Dec 15, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2017
  7. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Good night, some discussion tomorrow
     
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  8. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Past 2 years when Avg O/U column was 4 or more points off from the final total, that side has gone 14-7 (67%)
     
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  9. bakonole

    bakonole Well-Known Member

  10. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    oh boy

    disagree with the oregon game.
     
  11. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    I'm new to this gambling section, so any explanation on how to interpret this is appreciated. Are you saying that when A & B agree, they've covered 60% of the time? Are the ones bolded/underlined your best bets?
     
  12. Han Solo

    Donor
    Michigan WolverinesOregon DucksSeattle MarinersPittsburgh SteelersAvengers

    The models seem to really favor all the BIG10 schools more than Vegas. Almost all of them were stronger than the Vegas spread thought.
     
  13. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
    Donor TMB OG
    Oregon DucksGreen Bay PackersDetroit Red WingsBayern Munich

    Gotta remember that Oregon was the tale of two seasons. With Herbert and without. 40 pt difference on offense.
     
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  14. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    Pittsburgh PenguinsOhio State BuckeyesPittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Reds

    Christmas has come early.
     
  15. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Someone can correct me but when A/B agree it's 60.6% example of this is TCU. It's not bolded because all 3 don't agree since SF Power has a PK

    The bolded ones are when all systems agree so A B and SFP agree, or all 3 over under categories.
     
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  16. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    Got it, thanks.
     
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  17. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Yes, remember System A is purely statistics driven. System B takes into consideration strength of schedule. This why you'll typically see System A favor strong G5 teams that have been destroying weaker competition over weaker P5 teams and then the line come back towards the P5 team when strength of schedule is taken into account with System B.
     
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  18. bakonole

    bakonole Well-Known Member

    Have a few picks in for tomorrow but waiting on a couple more to see who everyone is riding with
     
  19. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit But the second mouse gets the cheese
    Donor
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    Correct me if I am wrong, but A&B agree on Ga St, Marshall, and Boise today.
     
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  20. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
    Donor
    Tiger Woods

    Indeed
     
  21. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    I was already on Marshall, getting GA St +7.
     
  22. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    We got any plays today or nah??
     
  23. RUseaweed2

    RUseaweed2 Well-Known Member
    Rutgers Scarlet KnightsNew York GiantsSouthern California TrojansBig Ten Conference

    I'm here for todays plays.
     
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  24. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Nothing on Troy game for me. Looking at other games. Will be on the oregon/boise under
     
  25. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    No play for me on WKU/GaSt. Sheet likes GaSt but I just cant bring myself to bet on that offense.
     
  26. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    As you know, the system doesn't account for injuries so the Oregon game may be shaded more to Boise bc of Herbert missing for half the season.
     
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  27. Han Solo

    Donor
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    Yeah I took a chance on the over on that one. Hoping Herbert being back will add 7 points to what the computer thinks.
     
  28. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    ***Boise St./Oregon Under 62
     
  29. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Yeah I agree the number should be higher than the comp with Herbert back. I just like the Boise defense though against Oregon who will have a new play caller.
     
  30. Han Solo

    Donor
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    Yeah I probably should have just avoided this game altogether but being a Duck fan I couldn't help myself.
     
  31. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Has Arroyo called plays before? I looked at his background and saw a stint as OC somewhere. He didn't call plays with Taggart at all this year, right?
     
  32. Han Solo

    Donor
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    Taggart called plays this year and most Duck fans hated it. Arroyo has called plays before (at TB Bucs I think for 1 year) but not yet this year.
     
  33. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Yeah thats what I was reading this morning. Too conservative and predictable? A little worrisome obviously on my end.
     
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  34. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Wow someone(s) coming in really hard on Georgia State to beat the number back down to where it opened.
     
  35. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
    Atlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsFlorida State Seminoles

    What did y'all hate about Taggarts play calling? Not disagreeing with you but Just curious as a FSU fan who didn't get to watch
     
  36. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

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  37. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Wow, down from WKU -7 to WKU -4.5 in the final thirty minutes.
     
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  38. Han Solo

    Donor
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    Was really predictable, especially when Herbert went out. When they were playing the backup QB, there was no creativity and it rarely felt like they had a plan. It was just run, run, pass, and punt.

    Duck fans loved Taggart for a lot of the program management stuff and recruiting, but wanted him to give up play calling to Arroyo or Cristobal all season.
     
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  39. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Aso on **Marshall 1st Half +2
     
  40. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Thats all for today for me:

    ***Boise St./Oregon Under 62
    **Marshall 1st Half +2
     
  41. bakonole

    bakonole Well-Known Member

    pick 6 and a 90 yard fumble recovery for a td. Ugh

    and another pick 6. LOL
     
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  42. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
    Atlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsFlorida State Seminoles

    Part of me wants to tease Ohio St with everything. Sheet loves them, and they fit this angle above
     
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  43. bakonole

    bakonole Well-Known Member

    Oh baby. Here we go

    :ohnoes:
     
  44. hawkeyeOUTeast

    hawkeyeOUTeast Love it or leave it!
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  45. bakonole

    bakonole Well-Known Member

    And just like that. We're cooked. Haha
     
  46. hawkeyeOUTeast

    hawkeyeOUTeast Love it or leave it!
    Donor

    Fuck Boise for that long pass that led to their score
     
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