FSUsem's 2017 College Bowl Season Picks & Discussion (Picks: 15-16, System A: 23-16)

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 15, 2017.

  1. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Sun Bowl
    *****NC State -5.5

    Even with Chubb out, I think NC State should be able to get a comfortable victory. They're better in almost every position group.
     
  2. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Was waiting for the hysteria from this morning to calm down. NC State had been bet up to -7 and I had an inkling it would fall a little bit since the action has been pretty even since it opened.
     
  3. asmith2021

    asmith2021 Member

    Appreciate it!
     
  4. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Had a feeling this line would come back down as well. Lots of weird movement this morning. Back down to -8 at Pinny
     
  5. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    The time I go against the sheet and take TAM. Fuck.
     
  6. rezy

    rezy Member
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    Florida State SeminolesNew York YankeesLos Angeles ClippersNew York GiantsManchester United

    nc state down to 4.5
     
  7. TigerPawsSC

    TigerPawsSC Well-Known Member

    Either kick the goddamn field goal or leave your offense on the field, you fucking assholes.
     
  8. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    i got az state +12 in a two team teaser with NW. soooooo how about a NC state win by 6 to 11 pts?
     
  9. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Music City Bowl
    *****Northwestern -8

    I know, I know. 4 5-unit picks in 24 hours (side note: there might be one or two more later), but I don't want to back off just because all the games the sheet and I like happen to fall within a 24 hour window. I tried my damnedest to find out why this spread wasn't in double digits and couldn't find anything definitive. Perhaps its because NW RB hasn't done so well in games against bowl teams. Jackson has averaged 2.9 ypr against the 6 bowl teams he faced and 5.5 ypr against the others. Thing is, all the bowl teams finished in top 23 in defensive efficiency. Kentucky ranks 88th. Even UT, Vandy, and Ole Miss put up 200+ rushing yards on UK. I think Jackson is going to be the difference and carry NW to a blowout. Kentucky is no stranger to being blown out, suffering 3 blowouts by 25+ points in the last 6 weeks of the season.
     
  10. RogueDeadGuyAU

    RogueDeadGuyAU Well-Known Member
    Auburn TigersPhiladelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia 76'ersPhiladelphia EaglesAtlanta United

    ...And another dog wins outright.
     
  11. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Arizona Bowl
    ***Utah St./NM St. Under 64
     
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  12. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Ohio State is going to be a play, from 3-5 units. Still deciding.
     
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  13. RogueDeadGuyAU

    RogueDeadGuyAU Well-Known Member
    Auburn TigersPhiladelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia 76'ersPhiladelphia EaglesAtlanta United

    Pardon my ignorance but is Darnold playing in that game?
     
  14. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    Did not look good for the Northwestern QB. Fuck.
     
  15. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Losing back to back plays by 1 pt is fun!
     
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  16. Craig Pettis

    Craig Pettis The first million is the hardest- Hitler
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    Memphis TigersTennessee VolunteersSt. Louis CardinalsMemphis GrizzliesMetal

    Whoever said bloodbath fucking nailed it. This is the worst losing streak of my life I think
     
  17. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Back to back kickoff return TDs are fun!
     
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  18. Wilfred

    Wilfred Well-Known Member
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    Missouri TigersSt. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Blues

    UK is self destructing
     
  19. Tommy Callahan

    Tommy Callahan Well-Known Member
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    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta Braves

    Man did I need that
     
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  20. bakonole

    bakonole Well-Known Member

    Bummer the Northwestern QB's knee got wrecked. Can't handicap injuries.

    What are looking like for the Cotton Bowl? I have OSU at -10 right now. This line got out of hand this afternoon. Yeesh
     
  21. CUAngler

    CUAngler Royale with Cheese
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    Clemson TigersAtlanta Braves

  22. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Cotton Bowl
    *****Ohio St. -9.5
     
  23. *DIESEL*

    *DIESEL* Half man, half amazing
    Donor
    Florida State SeminolesChicago CubsChicago BearsMiami Heat2pac

  24. Wilfred

    Wilfred Well-Known Member
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    Missouri TigersSt. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Blues

  25. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
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    Clemson TigersCarolina Panthers

  26. ...thefuck...?!?!

    ...thefuck...?!?! Fan of: The big piece of chicken
    Donor
    Dallas CowboysToronto Blue JaysToronto Maple LeafsOregon Ducks

    Welp, that's two tickets that have been killed by late two point conversion attempts.
     
  27. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Call me biased, but I think the sheet is still firing on all cylinders. The losses these past 24 hours have been wins outside of injuries and stupid coaching decisions. NC State and Ohio State confirm it.

    Hopefully... :ohdear:
     
  28. ...thefuck...?!?!

    ...thefuck...?!?! Fan of: The big piece of chicken
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    Dallas CowboysToronto Blue JaysToronto Maple LeafsOregon Ducks

    I agree, the sheet has been fantastic yet again and I think it’s a tremndous resource. I think the Northwestern game was nothing more than bad luck (SDSU to a lessor extent) and by teasing the NWern line down to 3.5 I almost won a game you would chalk up as a loss in most cases after losing a starting QB in the first half
     
    #530 ...thefuck...?!?!, Dec 29, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2017
    FSUsem likes this.
  29. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Traditionally NYE and New Years have been money making days. Hoping to put some good stuff out soon. I’ll be looking at more tomorrow morning and afternoon.
     
  30. Jaketherake

    Jaketherake Member

    Fitzgerald and his Fuckery, what a douchebag!
     
  31. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Love that a game with 17 points in 1st 4 minutes still went to OT and was safely under by almost 20 points. Shouldve been a bigger play. My b. This game was eaily under.
     
  32. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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  33. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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  34. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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  35. The Hotch

    The Hotch Well-Known Member
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    Arizona WildcatsArizona DiamondbacksPhoenix SunsArizona CardinalsLos Angeles Chargers

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  36. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Picks are 10-10, up 2 units minus juice.
     
  37. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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  38. UKupNorth

    UKupNorth Well-Known Member

    What’s the play today fellas?
     
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  39. RogueDeadGuyAU

    RogueDeadGuyAU Well-Known Member
    Auburn TigersPhiladelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia 76'ersPhiladelphia EaglesAtlanta United

    I really like PSU in this spot. UW sucks on the road. Shut down Pettis and PSU could easily cover. I like McSorley to air it out some and mix in Barkley.
     
  40. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    TaxSlayer Bowl
    **Mississippi St. +7

    All three systems agree. This would be a bigger play if MSU's QB was playing or if most of their staff hadn't left already for UF. I like what I've read/seen from the true freshman QB for MSU that will be making his first start. UL is also missing its top two defensive guys to make it a little easier for him.
     
  41. Craig Pettis

    Craig Pettis The first million is the hardest- Hitler
    Donor
    Memphis TigersTennessee VolunteersSt. Louis CardinalsMemphis GrizzliesMetal

    No play on Memphis/ISU?
     
  42. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Liberty Bowl
    *Iowa St. +3.5
     
  43. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Going against System A here. Memphis has had a great season propped up by playing horrific defenses. They have a pretty bad defense as well and Iowa St. should be able to move the ball with ease.
     
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  44. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    I'm staying off a side but will put a small play on the over. I think both teams will score easily
     
  45. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Not a catch imo
     
  46. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Fiesta Bowl
    ***Washington +3


    Both of these teams are pretty equal on paper but Penn St has struggled against good defenses. They haven't beaten anyone with a pulse since mid-October. Chris Peterson hasn't been an underdog all year and he thrives in that spot. Lots of reports of Washington players being motivated to play much better than last years bowl game. Pac-12 has looked pretty bad so far in bowl games but I'll take Peterson and the points.
     
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  47. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Orange Bowl
    ***Wisconsin -6.5
    ***Wisc/UM Under 45

    I think this will be a pretty ugly game. Might be tough for Miami to score more than 14. Wisconsin just has so much talent on the defensive side of the ball going up against a Miami offense who is 129th in 3rd down conversions and missing its #2 WR.
     
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