FSUsem's 2017 College Bowl Season Picks & Discussion (Picks: 15-16, System A: 23-16)

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 15, 2017.

  1. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
    Donor
    Tiger Woods

    dome foam is a true degenerate and I value his insight (even if I don't always agree)
     
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  2. *DIESEL*

    *DIESEL* Half man, half amazing
    Donor
    Florida State SeminolesChicago CubsChicago BearsMiami Heat2pac

    I like his insight too, but he does carry himself with a know-it-all attitude that gets annoying. And coming in a thread that's based around a system just to announce that you're fading everyone itt is an asshole move. Either keep that shit to yourself or start a thread for your own picks/general bowl bets.
     
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  3. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Donor
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    again I’ve only “faded” like two of the system plays. I’ve been on several. whatever.
     
  4. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
    Donor
    Tiger Woods

    I tend to overlook the "know it all" shit throughout the board. Sometimes it is a good thing to have a contrarian perspective
     
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  5. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
    Donor
    Tiger Woods

    We're all here for the same reason, to make money. If he talks me out of a loser or on a winner I'm good with it. His approach sucks at times, and he can come across as pompous, but I look more at the point and not delivery
     
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  6. *DIESEL*

    *DIESEL* Half man, half amazing
    Donor
    Florida State SeminolesChicago CubsChicago BearsMiami Heat2pac

    I just feel like he could make his same points without being so pompous.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. wolfpck

    wolfpck haters gonna hate
    Donor
    North Carolina State Wolfpack

    There's not much activity on this board as it is, so I welcome all insights.
     
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  8. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
    Donor
    Tiger Woods

    I don't disagree
     
  9. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Donor
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    well I played kstate live so go kstate? you guys happy now?

    :bananallama:
     
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  10. Jaketherake

    Jaketherake Member

    Kstate:blowup::shitofdeath:
     
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  11. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Donor
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    lol I now have more on kstate +4 than I do UCLA +7 (from pregame). the always elusive middle opp.
     
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  12. Tommy Callahan

    Tommy Callahan Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta Braves

    Fading was smart for sure
     
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  13. bakonole

    bakonole Well-Known Member

     
  14. Big Aristotle

    Big Aristotle Member

    :dennard: Man that feels good. Love the degen to push me to +10 units on the day :dennard:


    Hi dome foam
     
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  15. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Donor
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    I remember my first time gambling

    Congrats
     
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  16. Craig Pettis

    Craig Pettis Que será será motherfucker
    Donor
    Memphis TigersTennessee VolunteersSt. Louis CardinalsMemphis GrizzliesMetalPoker

  17. Big Aristotle

    Big Aristotle Member

     
  18. *DIESEL*

    *DIESEL* Half man, half amazing
    Donor
    Florida State SeminolesChicago CubsChicago BearsMiami Heat2pac

    Got a little conflict between systems on the arz-purdue tomorrow:

    Screenshot_20171223-192302.png
     
  19. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Donor
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    betting against Khalil Tate doesn’t seem fun. the guy can single handily take over the game.
     
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  20. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Donor
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    what does he mean bet and tease? what is he teasing with?
     
  21. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Independence Bowl
    No pick from me. Feels like the Duke game. Sheet loves the G5 team that played an extremely easy schedule. P5 actually has a reason to be motivated. FSU wants a winning season, especially for interim coach. So Miss not tested at all but did finish well against Marshall to end the year.
     
  22. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    Ehhh most degenerates I know and love all have that know-it-all attitude. I know I do. I love hearing everyone’s angles and thoughts.
     
  23. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    if it gets to 14 how do you not bet fsu?
     
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  24. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Ha, I'm looking at that exact thing now. Woke up to a nice overnight swing.
     
  25. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Donor
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    considering I bet fsu at 15 last week I will be hitting again at 14
     
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  26. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

  27. devine

    devine hi, i am user devine
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    West Virginia MountaineersChicago BullsPhoenix SunsPittsburgh PenguinsManchester CityPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresBarAndGrillCoors Light

    Texas is missing a bunch of starters. I like mizzou -3 and the under
     
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  28. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Still not gonna touch this game. FSU is too ripe for a let up, especially with all the players missing because of NFL/academics/discipline/etc.

    Screen Shot 2017-12-27 at 9.47.55 AM.png
     
  29. Big Aristotle

    Big Aristotle Member

  30. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Pinstripe Bowl
    **Iowa -2.5

    This is mostly a system play. Even though all three systems are in agreement, I'm hesitant to make this more than a 2 star play bc of the jekyll/hyde nature of Iowa this year (and how many times Iowa has let the sheet down).

    Screen Shot 2017-12-27 at 9.55.01 AM.png

     
  31. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Indeed. Love the dashboard set up.
     
  32. RogueDeadGuyAU

    RogueDeadGuyAU Well-Known Member
    Auburn TigersPhiladelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia 76'ersPhiladelphia EaglesAtlanta United

    That's what she said. :yousoright:
     
  33. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Looking at the game now. I think Mizzou definitely has the motivation factor but a lot of their stats/wins are propped up against shitty competition. Despite playing a P5 conference, they have 0 wins against bowl teams.
     
  34. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWENebraska Cornhuskers alt

    Stupid question but what's the section that says "ove..." with the bars
     
  35. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Its "overall value" as determined by sportsinsights.
     
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  36. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Texas Bowl
    Also staying away here. The split between performance for Mizzou against bowl teams vs non bowl teams is too drastic to go with System A here. Also doesn't help Mizzou's OC left for UCF. Mizzou was favored twice this year against bowl teams and was blown out by 32 and 18 at home both times. On the other hand, tough to have confidence in Texas with all the players they'll have missing because of NFL and discipline, in addition to an already anemic offense. Maybe looking at the under if it climbs throughout the day with all the money coming in on the over.

    Screen Shot 2017-12-27 at 10.58.30 AM.png

    Screen Shot 2017-12-27 at 11.02.46 AM.png
    (Top teams in each section are bowl teams)
     
    #287 FSUsem, Dec 27, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2017
  37. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Donor
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    a couple of thoughts:
    - texas defense has been great against the pass. but texas is without it's best LB and best 2 DBs. backups aren't bad and will be motivated. i think todd orlando is a great defensive coach against the spread, so i have to give him credit that he will have the D prepared.
    - texas OL has been shit all year, mainly due to injuries. they add their starting RT back after missing him the whole year. but they are also missing their best playmaker RB, which conversely gives what many texas fans believe is their best back (freshman daniel young) a huge opportunity tonight.
    - texas is starting shane buchele at QB, who has the pocket presence of david carr. i fully expect both offenses to sputter, save home run plays.
    - mizzou seems overconfident to me. they've had a good run against a bunch of shit teams. people are talking as if mizzou has the better motivation. i don't necessarily agree, mainly because mizzou's motivation is their confidence, and they have built up that confidence against a bunch of shit teams. if texas shows up, i think mizzou will get frustrated easily.
     
  38. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    I'm debating teasing the dogs in the three 3pt spread games. I can see any or all winning outright and none more than a touchdown difference.
     
  39. rezy

    rezy Member
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    Florida State SeminolesNew York YankeesLos Angeles ClippersNew York GiantsManchester United

    FSU is at -14, time to jump on it
     
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  40. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Wow. Even seeing a -13.5 at CRIS
     
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  41. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    And there goes Pinnacle.
     
  42. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    I just got them at 13.5.
     
  43. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Donor
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    ok now i am spooked.
     
  44. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Donor
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    added fsu -7 1h and 13.5 full game.
     
  45. RogueDeadGuyAU

    RogueDeadGuyAU Well-Known Member
    Auburn TigersPhiladelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia 76'ersPhiladelphia EaglesAtlanta United

    Is there value on FSU -13.5? I'm spooked as well. SM +17 seems like a lock at this point.
     
  46. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Donor
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    thanks for that.
     
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  47. RogueDeadGuyAU

    RogueDeadGuyAU Well-Known Member
    Auburn TigersPhiladelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia 76'ersPhiladelphia EaglesAtlanta United

    Locked in -13.5. Odell gonna have them ready. Too much talent on that side of the ball for them to not win by a couple scores.
     
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  48. Malik Zulu

    Malik Zulu your girl chose me

    FSU has half a coaching staff and thier best players sitting out to prep for the combine

    I jumped on SoMiss at 17 and bought the hook to +17.5

    That line movement is just bait
     
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  49. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Bait/nice middle opportunity.