FSUsem's 2018 College Bowl Season Picks & Discussion (16-16-1, Up One Whole Unit! (minus the juice))

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 14, 2018.

  1. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Screen Shot 2018-12-29 at 6.53.50 AM.png

    Color Code:

    Spread/Total Columns: Red = underdog covered, under hit, Green = favorite covered, over hit
    O/U and System Columns: Red = loss, Green = win

    No color = push
     
    #1 FSUsem, Dec 14, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2018
    Juan, GoodForAnother, rezy and 25 others like this.
  2. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    [watch thread]
     
  3. RSK

    RSK Well-Known Member
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    Rutgers Scarlet KnightsBrooklyn NetsBaltimore RavensNew Jersey DevilsManchester United

    Is this really that reliable? :dubioustrump:
     
  4. Craig Pettis

    Craig Pettis The first million is the hardest- Hitler
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    Memphis TigersTennessee VolunteersSt. Louis CardinalsMemphis GrizzliesMetal

    Told you guys. He always shows
     
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  5. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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  6. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Going through the O/U systems now
     
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  7. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    It is setup just like years past. There are two total systems, the off o/u and def o/u. The systems project what the total should be based on the offenses and defenses. The average is, of course, the average of the two which is generally near the total for the game.

    There is one system pulled from FoxSheets called SF Power. My systems are the system A and B columns. The main difference between the two is that System B factors in strength of schedule. The values in the columns represent what each system thinks the spread should be.

    In the spread and total column, the number in parentheses is the opening number. If there are no parentheses then obviously it hasn't moved or has moved back to the opening number. All lines are from Pinnacle.

    If anyone has any more questions, let me know and I'll be happy to help.
     
  8. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Past Six Years:

    System A is 134-95 ATS (58.5%)

    When A&B agree, the side has gone 94-61 ATS (60.6%)

    When all 3 agree, the side has gone 51-30 ATS (63.0%)
     
  9. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Full sheet posted
     
  10. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ****North Texas +7.5
     
  11. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ***Louisiana +3.5
     
  12. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    **Georgia Southern -3
     
  13. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Saturday, December 15th
    ****North Texas +7.5
    ***Louisiana +3.5
    **Georgia Southern -3
    **App State -7
     
  14. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Held off on going too high on App St due to lame duck interim coach who's already been told he's not gonna get the gig next year
     
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  15. The Hebrew Husker

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    HESSSSSS
    BAAAAAAAACKKKKKKK
     
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  16. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    Let's win some money boys.
     
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  17. FearMySpear

    FearMySpear Crafty Veteran
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    Florida State SeminolesAtlanta BravesOrlando MagicTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Heard something on sportstalk radio the other day that only one team won a bowl game last year with an interim coach and that was FSU who was heavily favored over southern miss. Something to keep in mind
     
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  18. Cheshire Bridge

    Cheshire Bridge 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
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    FSUsem so, what do you do all year away from the board? Assuming you don't have a lurking handle. You post picks thruought the ear anywhere?
     
  19. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    When will o/u be added?
     
  20. The Hebrew Husker

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    It is, he edited his OG post
     
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  21. TDCD

    TDCD Handling the Fisher account
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    FSUsem are systemA and systemB both proprietary systems you created yourself?
     
  22. CUAngler

    CUAngler Royale with Cheese
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    He is risen!

    Was seriosuly in a funk because I didn’t have this
     
  23. The Hebrew Husker

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    Jesus Christ what a joke that INT was for USU
     
  24. The Hebrew Husker

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    Karma, or something.
     
  25. bakonole

    bakonole Well-Known Member

    N Texas’s bad ass qb blowing a tire is not ideal. This back up is awful
     
  26. The Hebrew Husker

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    Yeah this dudes better than the back up with 1/5 of a leg
     
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  27. CUAngler

    CUAngler Royale with Cheese
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    Clemson TigersAtlanta Braves

    Starting to think we might be in trouble with this north Texas game.
     
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  28. Doc Louis

    Doc Louis Well-Known Member
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    That's what was missing from seeing the score then seeing the recommendation for them at +7.5. thanks!!
     
  29. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Knock on wood if you are with me
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    Not a great start here
     
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  30. Cheshire Bridge

    Cheshire Bridge 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
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    It's not . But, it's tried and true.
     
    Han Solo likes this.
  31. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Miami DolphinsNebraska Cornhuskers

    Are you going to update the excel with results and repost daily?
     
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  32. The Hebrew Husker

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    I don’t think the sheet is dependent on the games that happened. Usually it’s one sheet for the full bowl season. Sem posts his picks when he makes them, and keeps track of the record in the thread.
     
  33. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Ya. But he highlights it green/red so you can see trends.
     
  34. The Hebrew Husker

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    Oh...That I dont ever remember, I thought you meant like do the numbers change as games are played.
     
  35. GoodForAnother

    GoodForAnother thank you, I will drink until next morning
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    I assume the diff columns are showing what your system’s differential from the posted line is? Not the actual line your system is generating?
     
  36. Craig Pettis

    Craig Pettis The first million is the hardest- Hitler
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    Memphis TigersTennessee VolunteersSt. Louis CardinalsMemphis GrizzliesMetal

    Any play today?
     
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  37. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Rough start, tough injuries

    Boca Raton Bowl
    ****UAB -1
     
  38. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Its actually the latter. Its generating what it thinks the line should be. Ststem b factors in strengths of schedule, which is why you typically see some line regression in the power 5 vs group of 6 games with system B.
     
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  39. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    I’ll update my picks in the thread and also ipdate the sheet regularly with colors to see trends.
     
  40. The Hebrew Husker

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    Nice. I guess I don’t remember there ever being an updated sheet. I’ll have to watch for it.
     
  41. The Hebrew Husker

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    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Have the under.... bowl season sucks.
     
  42. tiger tommy

    tiger tommy Well-Known Member

    Nice to have an easy win. Time to get on a roll. :bananallama:
     
  43. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Frisco Bowl
    No play for me, lean Ohio
     
  44. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Gasparilla Bowl (Thursday, Dec. 20)
    ****Marshall -2.5
    ***Marshall/USF Over 51.5
     
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  45. tiger tommy

    tiger tommy Well-Known Member

    Total down to 47.5
     
  46. wolfpck

    wolfpck haters gonna hate
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    North Carolina State Wolfpack

    San Diego State's QB is fucking awful. Why didn't someone tell me this before I picked them in my bowl pick em?
     
    FSUsem likes this.
  47. Tricky Gator

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    Florida Gators

    Favs 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS
     
  48. tiger tommy

    tiger tommy Well-Known Member

    Fla Int QB out. Line up to 7.
     
  49. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Very interesting line movement. Vegas only moved the spread 1.5 point to Toledo -7 but moved the total an entire 12 points down to 56. Strange.

    Essentially vegas is saying with the FIU QB the final score will be Toledo 37, FIU 31. Without the QB somehow the final score will be 31-24, with a 6 pt drop for Toledos team total.
     
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  50. The Hebrew Husker

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    I did read the weather is expected to be crazy with like 40-50mph winds and people have been hammering the under.

    I got it at 59 late last night.