FSUsem's 2018 College Bowl Season Picks & Discussion (16-16-1, Up One Whole Unit! (minus the juice))

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 14, 2018.

  1. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    ***Michigan -4.5
    ***Michigan/UF Under 51
     
  2. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Finally went down to -13.5

    *****Alabama -13.5
     
    ClemsonGrad06 likes this.
  3. TDCD

    TDCD Handling the Fisher account
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    Whoa that Michigan line is moving fast. Was 6 an hour ago
     
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  4. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Starting to see a couple -13s pop up. Can't imagine these 13s will last too long.
     
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  5. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Yeah I think the public is starting to hammer UF bc of the Michigan players sitting out. I still feel more comfortable with Shea than Felipe under center. This is probably the reason Michigan is a top 10 team when it comes to moving the chains on 3rd down.
     
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  6. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    ***Virginia +3.5
     
  7. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Even though sheet loves the over in UVA/SCar, I'm staying off. Can't get behind SCar scoring enough without Deebo.
     
  8. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    **Clemson -11.5
     
  9. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Saturday, December 29
    *****Alabama -13.5
    ****Arkansas St. +2
    ***Virginia +3.5
    ***Michigan -4.5
    ***Michigan/UF Under 51
    **Clemson -11.5
     
  10. TDCD

    TDCD Handling the Fisher account
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    Florida State SeminolesConnecticut HuskiesBoston Red SoxNew England Patriots

    Are A and B your own systems? Can you give some insight on what their formulas are?
     
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  11. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Yes A and B are mine. A is based on pure statistics, B is the same formula with SOS added in.
     
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  12. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Public is hammering Notre Dame. Line might move closer to 10 by kickoff.
     
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  13. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    *****Louisiana Tech pk em
    *****Vandy/Baylor Over 56

    ****North Texas +7.5 (injured QB)
    ****Troy +1
    ****UAB -1
    ****Marshall -2.5

    ***Louisiana +3.5
    ***Marshall/USF Over 51.5
    ***Georgia Tech -6
    ***Temple -3
    ***FIU/Toledo Over 57.5 (never a doubt :awesomeface:)

    ***Western Michigan +12
    ***Memphis -3.5 (moron coaching staff)
    **App State -7
    **Purdue/Auburn Over 55.5
    **WashSt/Iowa St Under 56.5

    **Georgia Southern -3


    34 units won
    21 units lost
     
  14. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Also, Virginia is the 5th slowest offense of all bowl teams, running only 64 plays per game. SCar tempo is also below average. Not good tempo for me to have confidence in the over.
     
  15. FearMySpear

    FearMySpear Crafty Veteran
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    Would you play the bowl under system on that game instead of the over?
     
  16. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Back up to 14 at most places. Still like it at 14 for 5*.
     
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  17. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    All 3 O/U systems like the Over by about 3 points. They also assume Deebo is playing for SCar.
     
  18. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Shitty break for the under
     
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  19. Aeroforz1

    Aeroforz1 Well-Known Member
    Staff TMB OG

    If Arkansas State could put this team away that'd be super. They literally had the ball inside the Nevada 30 the entire 3rd quarter and got zero points.
     
  20. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    Arkansas St doesn't deserve to win this game.... Beat themselves.
     
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  21. Aeroforz1

    Aeroforz1 Well-Known Member
    Staff TMB OG

    2 missed field goals, 2 interceptions in goal to go situations, and failed on 4th down from the 5 yard line. Headed to OT. Gambling is stupid.
     
  22. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    Fuck
     
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  23. hawkeyeOUTeast

    hawkeyeOUTeast Love it or leave it!
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    That was absolutely pathetic
     
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  24. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Wow Michigan was a bad bet, but Arkansas State.....smh

    500 yards of offense and only 10 points...
     
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  25. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
    Tampa Bay Lightning

    Ark St is what kills the betting man.
     
  26. stexraider

    stexraider Fire Everybody
    Donor

    So close to breaking that tackle and making me a bunch of money... instead kneel down death
     
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  27. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Pathetic day. Bama felt like the right bet for 3 quarters.
     
  28. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
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    Had Bama -13.5 and also o46 on the TT


    Fuck
     
  29. Dildo Dawgins

    Dildo Dawgins Well-Known Member
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    Georgia Bulldogs

    Lost my ass yesterday but still chuckled when I saw my OU +15 and under 81 parlay (1u) hit at the end of the night.

    I'm not sure what's in store for NYE or 1/1 but my favorite bet both days will be Georgia/Texas over and Georgia over 35 points. Fromm will light them up and Ehlinger should make some big plays too with their WRs and no Baker.

    Edit: Also gonna add this will be Godwin's last game and could be last game for Nauta, Hardman, and Ridley. I really think Dawgs will air it out. If there are any player props for Fromm I would take those too.
     
    #229 Dildo Dawgins, Dec 30, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2018
  30. Dildo Dawgins

    Dildo Dawgins Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Georgia Bulldogs

    What's our picks for today?

    Anyone liking Mizzou/OSU under? Mizzou defense played pretty well later in the year, and weather will be pretty bad.

    Also liking Utah -6 and over 45.
     
  31. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    call.
     
  32. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ****Cincy -6.5
     
  33. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    [​IMG]
     
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  34. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
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    Inspiring start for the cincy D
     
  35. tiger tommy

    tiger tommy Well-Known Member

    Nice answer. Now get your defense straight
     
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  36. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    I don’t know why I end up locking these 1H unders. Tell myself everyday to stop and just stick with the sheet. Jesus.

    Welp, lets go Bearcats.
     
  37. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    lol what a horrible spot.
     
  38. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    fuck, cincy QB hurt...
     
  39. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    Replaced by a senior. If he couldn't beat out a freshman, I don't like our chances
     
  40. tiger tommy

    tiger tommy Well-Known Member

    Holy shit. That was almost a disaster.
     
  41. sem

    sem Jimmy Key? What is he, 45? I could hit him.
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    Penn State Nittany LionsWashington CapitalsChelseaWu-tang

    Fortunately for us VTs defense is awful.
     
  42. Aeroforz1

    Aeroforz1 Well-Known Member
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    Glad I bet the over and Cincy so I don't have to kill myself yet over the Cincy QB being out.
     
  43. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    what was the 1H under? i took a live betting Un33.5 after the first TD
     
  44. asmith2021

    asmith2021 Member

    Anything else for today?
     
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  45. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    25ish
     
  46. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    At the rate its going, might need to wait for second half lines to avoid hurt QBs lol
     
    The Hebrew Husker likes this.
  47. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    ****Stanford -3.5

    Love sitting out is overrated. Stanford isn't a run first team anymore. Public is overreacting imo. Pitt couldn't do anything against a team with pulse that can stop the run.
     
  48. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    cincy is dead. womp womp.
     
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  49. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    No play on the Redbox bowl for me
     
  50. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    i went big on mich st. the news of hebert playing hurts oregon. i doubt they will lay it all out there with him coming back.