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Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 19, 2019.
Past Seven Years:
System A went 148-118 since 2012 (55.6%)
When A&B agree, the side went 100-76 ATS since 2012 (56.8%)
When all 3 agree, the side went 56-36 ATS since 2012 (60.9%)
Keep in mind profitable is 52.5%, above 55% is good, 60% or more is great.
Sorry for the delay this year, but I made some tweaks to The Sheet. It resulted in a slight increase in System A since 2012 to 58.2% and a larger increase in System B to 54.3%. System A still is purely statistically based, now focusing on more advanced metrics. System B is also a much more complex form of schedule strength.
System A and B are entirely my own. The SF Power system is a line from FoxSheets that I've found significant in the past. The values in each column for each system represent what that system thinks the line should be. So System A thinks Buffalo should be favored by 11.9 points. Since the actual line is Buffalo -6.5, System A believes there's 5.4 points of value on Buffalo.
None of these systems take into account intangibles like coaching changes, players sitting out, injuries, travel advantages, weather, etc. Make sure to always keep these in mind before just following The Sheet blindly.
In the spread and total column, the number in parentheses is the opening number. If there are no parentheses then obviously it hasn't moved or has moved back to the opening number. All lines are consensus lines from SportsInsights.
If anyone has any more questions, let me know and I'll be happy to help.
***Kent State +6.5
Let’s do it babyyyy
Never a doubt.
Couple notes on the data:
-System A loves Ohio St and Clemson, others arent really close. Unfortunate they arent playing in a final.
-Not as scared of MAC teams as I thought it would be
Any thoughts on the games tomorrow? Buffalo is looking like a winner
Great start. Let’s keep it going
Just a heads up for FAU game tomorrow.
***Central Michigan +3.5
Never thought I'd start a bowl season by betting 3 straight MAC teams
Central Michigan's defense should be in the backfield all afternoon. Normally I'd play the moneyline on this small of a dog but points may be at a premium so I'll take the FG+. Don't hate a ML play though.
Sheet suggests maybe this should be a bigger play but Liberty hasn't played anyone, including losing to Rutgers. A little hesitant putting more units on them. Liberty should be able to move the ball through the air at will as long as the weather doesn't get too shitty.
Staying away from the Boca Raton bowl due to FAU missing over 2400 scrimmage yards, 15 TDs, and possible more due to suspensions/illness/sitting out.
I'll be on the -105 moneyline. Really like the way FIU matches up, especially in the rain. Love this Sheet play.
Staying away from the Las Vegas bowl. I lean Boise, especially with Washington's LT and TE sitting out for the draft.
***App State -17
This minor System A Sheet play on App State goes against a couple of bowl season rules with popular favorites and big spreads, but UAB is just....not good. Wish I got it last night at 16.5 but I think this line will get bigger throughout the afternoon.
Saturday, December 21
***Central Michigan +3.5
***App State -17
FSUsem what does it mean on the sheet when a team in the systems is bolded and underlined?
I think it means all three agree?
That means all three systems (A, B, SF) favor one side of the line. Not necessarily the team that's in bold, but whichever way the systems are leaning. So System A has SD St -0.4. This doesn't mean play SDSt but rather SD St should only be favored by that much so its saying there's value on Central Mich at +4. The other two systems also favor Central Mich.
thanks. the utah st and sd st games were throwing me off but now I follow.
I jumped on the ML as well, along with CMU +3.5 and Liberty +5.
We got mcelwained in the cmu game. Fucking loser ass coach
So yeah 3 MAC teams was too many to start lol
didn't expect the aztecs D to be so damn stout
It was the offense I was more surprised with. Their highest was 31 all year.
Yeah it seems like they absolutely had their way against a really good DL
Picks are 3-3, down 4 units, heading into the 3rd day of bowl games.
Thought on the next two days? Seems like they all agree. Any unit suggestions?
I'm already on UCF -15.5 and BYU -2.
Can you explain the sheet as it relates to totals?
The Off O/U number is the O/U predicted based on pure offensive numbers and Def O/U works the same way. The Avg O/U is just the average of the two. Haven't found much statistical significance other than when the Avg O/U is off by 4+.
Thanks. What's your feel for the total in today's game?
Liking the public biting on the underdog so much in this bowl bc of their past bowl record.
My book has the line at 14’.
Man I gotta get back in the mood of assuming there is an afternoon game during the week
So system says to play BYU today?
Yeah deciding on units shortly.
Don't blame anyone for jumping on the -125/-130 ml instead of the points. Speaking of points, I'd lean to the over as well. On paper it doesn't look like BYU will need to punt.
BYU (and sheet followers) have gotten hosed by these officials...