FSUsem's 2019 Bowl Season Thread -- Starring: The Sheet Vol. 2

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 19, 2019.

  1. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Screen Shot 2020-01-04 at 8.38.58 AM.png
     
    #1 FSUsem, Dec 19, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2020
  2. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Past Seven Years:

    System A went 148-118 since 2012 (55.6%)

    When A&B agree, the side went 100-76 ATS since 2012 (56.8%)

    When all 3 agree, the side went 56-36 ATS since 2012 (60.9%)
     
  3. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Keep in mind profitable is 52.5%, above 55% is good, 60% or more is great.
     
  4. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Sorry for the delay this year, but I made some tweaks to The Sheet. It resulted in a slight increase in System A since 2012 to 58.2% and a larger increase in System B to 54.3%. System A still is purely statistically based, now focusing on more advanced metrics. System B is also a much more complex form of schedule strength.

    System A and B are entirely my own. The SF Power system is a line from FoxSheets that I've found significant in the past. The values in each column for each system represent what that system thinks the line should be. So System A thinks Buffalo should be favored by 11.9 points. Since the actual line is Buffalo -6.5, System A believes there's 5.4 points of value on Buffalo.

    None of these systems take into account intangibles like coaching changes, players sitting out, injuries, travel advantages, weather, etc. Make sure to always keep these in mind before just following The Sheet blindly.

    In the spread and total column, the number in parentheses is the opening number. If there are no parentheses then obviously it hasn't moved or has moved back to the opening number. All lines are consensus lines from SportsInsights.

    If anyone has any more questions, let me know and I'll be happy to help.
     
    #4 FSUsem, Dec 20, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2020
  5. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ***Kent State +6.5
     
    #5 FSUsem, Dec 20, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2019
  6. Craig Pettis

    Craig Pettis The first million is the hardest- Hitler
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    Memphis TigersTennessee VolunteersSt. Louis CardinalsMemphis GrizzliesMetal

    Let’s do it babyyyy:rain::chatzy:
     
  7. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

  8. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    HES BAAAAAAAAACK

    Never a doubt.
     
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  9. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Couple notes on the data:

    -System A loves Ohio St and Clemson, others arent really close. Unfortunate they arent playing in a final.
    -Not as scared of MAC teams as I thought it would be
     
  10. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    **Buffalo -6.5
     
    #10 FSUsem, Dec 20, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2019
  11. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

  12. asmith2021

    asmith2021 Member

    Any thoughts on the games tomorrow? Buffalo is looking like a winner
     
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  13. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Real MadridJacksonville JaguarsFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Rays

    Great start. Let’s keep it going
     
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  14. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ***Central Michigan +3.5
     
  15. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Never thought I'd start a bowl season by betting 3 straight MAC teams

    Central Michigan's defense should be in the backfield all afternoon. Normally I'd play the moneyline on this small of a dog but points may be at a premium so I'll take the FG+. Don't hate a ML play though.
     
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  16. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    **Liberty +6
     
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  17. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Sheet suggests maybe this should be a bigger play but Liberty hasn't played anyone, including losing to Rutgers. A little hesitant putting more units on them. Liberty should be able to move the ball through the air at will as long as the weather doesn't get too shitty.
     
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  18. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Staying away from the Boca Raton bowl due to FAU missing over 2400 scrimmage yards, 15 TDs, and possible more due to suspensions/illness/sitting out.
     
  19. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ****FIU +1
     
  20. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    I'll be on the -105 moneyline. Really like the way FIU matches up, especially in the rain. Love this Sheet play.
     
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  21. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Staying away from the Las Vegas bowl. I lean Boise, especially with Washington's LT and TE sitting out for the draft.
     
  22. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ***App State -17
     
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  23. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    This minor System A Sheet play on App State goes against a couple of bowl season rules with popular favorites and big spreads, but UAB is just....not good. Wish I got it last night at 16.5 but I think this line will get bigger throughout the afternoon.
     
  24. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Saturday, December 21
    ***Central Michigan +3.5

    **Liberty +6
    ****FIU +1
    ***App State -17
     
    #25 FSUsem, Dec 21, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2019
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  25. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    FSUsem what does it mean on the sheet when a team in the systems is bolded and underlined?
     
  26. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    I think it means all three agree?
     
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  27. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    That means all three systems (A, B, SF) favor one side of the line. Not necessarily the team that's in bold, but whichever way the systems are leaning. So System A has SD St -0.4. This doesn't mean play SDSt but rather SD St should only be favored by that much so its saying there's value on Central Mich at +4. The other two systems also favor Central Mich.
     
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  28. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Real MadridJacksonville JaguarsFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Rays

    thanks. the utah st and sd st games were throwing me off but now I follow.
     
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  29. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    I jumped on the ML as well, along with CMU +3.5 and Liberty +5.
     
  30. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Real MadridJacksonville JaguarsFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Rays

    We got mcelwained in the cmu game. Fucking loser ass coach
     
  31. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    So yeah 3 MAC teams was too many to start lol
     
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  32. skiedfrillet

    skiedfrillet It's not a lie if you believe it.
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    Clemson Tigers

    didn't expect the aztecs D to be so damn stout
     
  33. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    It was the offense I was more surprised with. Their highest was 31 all year.
     
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  34. skiedfrillet

    skiedfrillet It's not a lie if you believe it.
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    Clemson Tigers

    Yeah it seems like they absolutely had their way against a really good DL
     
  35. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Picks are 3-3, down 4 units, heading into the 3rd day of bowl games.
     
    #36 FSUsem, Dec 22, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2019
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  36. asmith2021

    asmith2021 Member

    Thought on the next two days? Seems like they all agree. Any unit suggestions?
     
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  37. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    I'm already on UCF -15.5 and BYU -2.
     
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  38. Cheshire Bridge

    Cheshire Bridge 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
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    Clemson TigersAtlanta BravesTiger WoodsCollege Football Playoff

    Can you explain the sheet as it relates to totals?
     
  39. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ****UCF -15.5
     
    #40 FSUsem, Dec 23, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2019
  40. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    The Off O/U number is the O/U predicted based on pure offensive numbers and Def O/U works the same way. The Avg O/U is just the average of the two. Haven't found much statistical significance other than when the Avg O/U is off by 4+.
     
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  41. Cheshire Bridge

    Cheshire Bridge 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
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    Thanks. What's your feel for the total in today's game?
     
  42. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Liking the public biting on the underdog so much in this bowl bc of their past bowl record.
     
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  43. Long Ball Larry

    Donor
    Alabama Crimson TideMiami Dolphins

    My book has the line at 14’.
     
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  44. CUAngler

    CUAngler Royale with Cheese
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    Clemson TigersAtlanta Braves

    Man I gotta get back in the mood of assuming there is an afternoon game during the week
     
  45. mal630

    mal630 Well-Known Member
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    Tiger WoodsCleveland BrownsOhio State Buckeyes

    So system says to play BYU today?
     
  46. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Yeah deciding on units shortly.
     
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  47. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    *****BYU -2
     
    #48 FSUsem, Dec 24, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2019
  48. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Don't blame anyone for jumping on the -125/-130 ml instead of the points. Speaking of points, I'd lean to the over as well. On paper it doesn't look like BYU will need to punt.
     
  49. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    BYU (and sheet followers) have gotten hosed by these officials...
     
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