FSUsem's 2019 Bowl Season Thread -- Starring: The Sheet Vol. 2

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 19, 2019.

  1. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Hate when people claim a lost bet was the right side....but.....

    Good god what an atrocious set of refs and what an atrocious call on 3rd and 2 to play action roll out when youve torched them for 220+ on the ground already....
     
  2. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    Yeah...you have to run the ball there.
     
  3. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Staying off the Independence Bowl. Miami should kill them on paper. La Tech should kill them based on motivation. -6.5 is an extremely cheap price for Miami considering all the blue chip talent you're getting. +6.5 is generous for a Group of 5 team playing essentially at home against a Power 5 team running on fumes. No idea which Miami team is going to show up. Not gonna bother with guessing.
     
  4. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    I'm considering the overs in both games (I'm seeing both at 49.5 on DK) and maybe Pitt -12, but leaning no or only a partial unit on that.
     
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  5. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    **Eastern Michigan +13
     
    #55 FSUsem, Dec 26, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
  6. All_Luck

    All_Luck OK. Cool Husk em!
    Nebraska CornhuskersDenver NuggetsKansas City ChiefsBig 8 ConferenceNebraska Cornhuskers alt

    Love your work. BOL during this bowl season!
     
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  7. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    Didn't end up taking Pitt but that 1st game over went real well. :blech:
     
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  8. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    you too!
     
  9. skiedfrillet

    skiedfrillet It's not a lie if you believe it.
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    Clemson Tigers

    I snagged under 20.5 midway through the 3rd and was sweating bullets that last Pitt drive after LA Tech didn’t knee it 3 times
     
  10. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ***Temple/UNC Over 53.5
     
    #60 FSUsem, Dec 27, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
  11. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    That shot up quickly this morning. Seeing 54s and 55s now. I'd still play it at that number.
     
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  12. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ***Wake Forest +4
     
    #62 FSUsem, Dec 27, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
  13. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    not to hijack but just reminding all of us tryin to get rich off this sheet that dogs in bowl games who cover have a good percentage of winning outright. I like to do "1 unit" on the +4 and then 0.5 unit on +ML. I don't have the percentage handy for how often the Dogs covering win outright but the number was high enough that it was a no-brainer several of the past few years.

    UAB and EMich only two that have covered but lost SU this year. Other 5 dogs have won SU
     
  14. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Hey man, all input more than welcome. Everyone else free to jump in too. And you're absolutely right.

    Since 1980, the favorite has won but the underdog covered in 26% of the regular season games. In bowl games that drops to 14%. This is despite the favorite covering roughly the same 48% of games in both regular and bowl season. The ROI on betting the underdogs outright has been more profitable 5 of the last 6 years than betting the underdog with the spread.
     
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  15. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    No play on the Texas Bowl for me. I'd lean Texas A&M and the over. Jimbo normally excels in spots like these. Also, unranked teams are generally a good play in bowl season against ranked teams.
     
    #65 FSUsem, Dec 27, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
  16. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    I had to make my picks yesterday (was at my parents in NJ, I live in NY). I'm on:

    UNC -6 (woo)
    Wake +4
    OK St +6.5
    Air Force -2.5

    Good luck to everyone today.
     
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  17. CUAngler

    CUAngler Royale with Cheese
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    Clemson TigersAtlanta Braves

    Got the dub to start the day. I have no faith in wake but at least we can’t lose.
     
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  18. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Ha, just was saying the same about Wake re: lacking some faith. I even have less faith in Michigan State’s offense. First one to 13 wins.
     
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  19. CUAngler

    CUAngler Royale with Cheese
    Donor TMB OG
    Clemson TigersAtlanta Braves

    True. They are tough to watch. My pessimism is more so rooted in conference affiliation.
     
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  20. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    lol wow
     
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  21. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Sitting out the Holiday bowl as well. Line seems sharp. Iowa would seem to have the motivational advantage but tough to back that offense.
     
  22. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ****Air Force -2.5
    *****Air Force/Washington St. Under 70.5
     
    #72 FSUsem, Dec 27, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2019
  23. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Wow that's a rough loss for over bettors.
     
  24. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    A little early

    *****LSU/Oklahoma Under 76
    *****Clemson/Ohio St. Under 63
     
  25. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Bowl picks are 8-5, up 5.2 units
     
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  26. All_Luck

    All_Luck OK. Cool Husk em!
    Nebraska CornhuskersDenver NuggetsKansas City ChiefsBig 8 ConferenceNebraska Cornhuskers alt

    Keep it up. Nice job cappin the WSU/AF game
     
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  27. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    This year System A and B are each 10-7 ATS (59%). When all 3 agree, 4-2 ATS (66%). When A & B agree, 6-3 ATS (66%). Good numbers so far with vol. 2.
     
  28. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ***Penn State -7
     
  29. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    Good day yesterday, let's keep rolling today.

    PSU -7
    ND -3.5
    OU +14
    OSU ML

    Plus I put in a 7 team ML parlay with a DK free bet I had, so if PSU, ND, and LSU just win SU, that'd be a nice bonus.

    FSUsem I'm interested in your thoughts behind the unders in both semis.
     
  30. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ****Oklahoma +14
     
  31. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    No play for me on the Champs Sports bowl but I lean Notre Dame. Not sure if they care much about this second-tier Orlando bowl after losing their O coordinator when they were in the playoff last year...but if they do they should roll Iowa State.
     
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  32. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    All we're hearing about is how great the 4 QBs are. Maybe this is the reason the totals are 5+ points higher than the projected O/U Avg number (despite it typically being within 2-3 points). The reason isn't because of pace, we're dealing with 4 teams who all rank outside the top 45. While we're obviously dealing with 4 elite offenses, I think all 4 DLs have the advantage over the OLs on paper. The totals seem inflated.
     
  33. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Saturday, December 28
    ***Penn State -7

    ****Oklahoma +14
    *****LSU/Oklahoma Under 76
    *****Clemson/Ohio St. Under 63
     
    #83 FSUsem, Dec 28, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2019
  34. Dildo Dawgins

    Dildo Dawgins Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Georgia Bulldogs

    Everyone on Reddit and Twitter is all over tOSU and I already placed max bets on Clemson (ML and -2). :ohdear:


    Oh well I really like those under picks and thanks for the AF/Wazzu picks.
     
  35. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    This should make you feel good about your bets haha
     
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  36. Dildo Dawgins

    Dildo Dawgins Well-Known Member
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    Georgia Bulldogs

    That and the fact the line has moved to -2.5.
     
  37. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Placeholder for a Custom Title
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    Auburn TigersLos Angeles LakersLos Angeles RamsAnaheim DucksManchester UnitedLos Angeles Angels of Anaheim

    Well this Under and OU bet don’t look good
     
  38. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    Under still has a small shot as at some point you have to think LSU will let off the gas and run clock.
     
  39. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    Yeah...the under is toast. Oklahoma defense is Swiss cheese.
     
  40. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Well that under can be written off. Terrible play.
     
  41. Malik Zulu

    Malik Zulu your girl chose me

    Live bet is fucking 98
     
  42. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    I took LSU -13 about a week ago, I played the under thinking the over was one of those “too easy” type bets....oops.
     
  43. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    Took 2nd half under 34. Was sweating the last few minutes but made up a little for the game under.
     
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  44. asmith2021

    asmith2021 Member

    This last under helped out. On to Monday
     
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  45. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Real MadridJacksonville JaguarsFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Rays

    What’s everyone think about the championship game line?
     
  46. Tommy Callahan

    Tommy Callahan Well-Known Member
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    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta Braves

    I’m not betting against LSU again I’ll say that
     
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  47. FearMySpear

    FearMySpear Crafty Veteran
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    Florida State SeminolesAtlanta BravesOrlando MagicTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Opened at 4 on my book. Already at -5 where I just put 10 units on it
     
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  48. FearMySpear

    FearMySpear Crafty Veteran
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    Florida State SeminolesAtlanta BravesOrlando MagicTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Think it will get to 7
     
  49. Tommy Callahan

    Tommy Callahan Well-Known Member
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    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta Braves

    Although looks like the sheet will be Clemson? Especially at the value from +14 on a?
     
  50. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    I'm probably taking Clemson. Think line will be inflated due to them dominating a depleted Oklahoma team today. Hope it gets to 7 but think it'll probably be 5 -6
     
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