FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 25-12 (68%), +32.6 Units (:chatzy:)

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 7, 2009.

  1. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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  2. New user

    New user Well-Known Member
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread

    GL this year. Know you killed it last year and will be looking forward to some of you leans.
     
  3. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Early Money

    Early public money:

    80% on Bama -5.5
    80% on GT -3.5
    67% on Boise State +9
    60% on Cincy +10
    51% on Ohio State +3.5
     
  4. Trojan Lore

    Trojan Lore New Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread

    Thank you Sir :heythere:
     
  5. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread

    No problem. Hopefully this sheet continues to work. And thank you.
     
  6. carlin08

    carlin08 New Member
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread

    LEt's do it
     
  7. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread

    Putting together everything I came across this sobering stat.

    FSU has given up the most defensive yards per game than any other bowl team.

    Expected, yet somewhat surprising.
     
  8. Weedlord420

    Weedlord420 Well-Known Member
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread

    Why somewhat surprising?

    We gave up 42 points to NC State at home lol.

    We had the 97th ranked defense all year long lol.
     
  9. All_Luck

    All_Luck OK. Cool Husk em!
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    Re: Early Money

    Are these percentages the chances of covering?
     
  10. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread

    Yeah but it's just a little weird to see it on paper. Especially with bowl teams like Idaho, Iowa State, and Wyoming.

    For a little reference, we were rated about 17th out of 68 last year using all the big defensive categories. This year we are 68th out of 68th.
     
  11. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: Early Money

    Nah that was the early public money flowing in. Updated on those 5 lined games:

    84% Alabama -5.5
    76% GT -3.5
    78% Boise +7
    64% UF -10
    64% Oregon -3.5

    Only big line movement was the TCU/Boise game moving 2 points since opening this morning/last night.
     
  12. All_Luck

    All_Luck OK. Cool Husk em!
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    Re: Early Money

    Why does the money flow matter? I'm kinda lost at your spread sheet.
     
  13. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: Early Money

    Haven't posted anything on the spreadsheet yet. Money flow matters just to get an idea who the public likes and which way the lines are moving.
     
  14. All_Luck

    All_Luck OK. Cool Husk em!
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    Re: Early Money

    Thanks man.
     
  15. fgrauzer

    fgrauzer New Member
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread

    I dont care if 99.9% of the public is on Bama, they will cover that spread.
     
  16. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread

    It looks like the line is headed up. Bama -6 now at Pinnacle.
     
  17. Weedlord420

    Weedlord420 Well-Known Member
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread

    :woot: cant wait for that baby to get to like +9

    all over texas at that point
     
  18. fgrauzer

    fgrauzer New Member
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread

    Just glad I caught it at -5.5, I figure it will get get over 7
     
  19. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread

    Here are the raw ats numbers. Obviously these are used, but not to be relied on 100%.

    Rutgers -1.8
    Fresno -21.0
    Southern Miss -1.4
    BYU -2.2
    Cal -0.6
    Nevada -12.7
    Ohio -2.6
    Pitt -7.9
    USC -9.9
    Clemson -12.8
    Georgia -11.1
    UCLA -2.1
    Miami -2
    Idaho -9.0
    Arizona -7.5
    Air Force -9.5
    Oklahoma -12.6
    Mizzou -6.1
    Minnesota -3.4
    VT -6.0
    Auburn -21.7
    Penn State -17.9
    West Virginia -8.3
    Oregon -2.7
    Florida -17.4
    USF -5.4
    South Carolina -7.4
    Ole Miss -5.4
    Arkansas -8.1
    Texas Tech -2.3
    TCU -12.4
    GT -2.6
    Central Michigan -9.8
    Alabama -6.6
     
  20. bakonole

    bakonole Well-Known Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread

    I can't wait for this shit. Thanks sem for the work you do on this, it's much appreciated. Almost go time :beerchug:
     
  21. fgrauzer

    fgrauzer New Member
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Raw Numbers Posted)

    Penn st - 17 really sticks out.....
     
  22. Trojan Lore

    Trojan Lore New Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Raw Numbers Posted)

    SEM,
    How did you arrive at the PSU number?
     
  23. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Raw Numbers Posted)

    Early wagers:

    ****UF -10
    ****Arkansas -8


    Getting on these early on because I think these will move up. Air Force will probably be a play but I'm going to gamble that the line will move in my favor and perhaps up to 7.

    As with last year, I'll have write-ups as the weeks near.
     
  24. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Raw Numbers Posted)

    Part of the spreadsheet. Takes a bunch of stats and averages some stuff here and some stuff there. I think the reason for the large number is LSU having the 65th worst offense out of the 68 bowl teams.
     
  25. ppos31

    ppos31 Well-Known Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Early Wagers)

    Someone please explain the spreadsheet to me... Am I making this harder than it is?
     
  26. Corky Bucek

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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Raw Numbers Posted)

    I really like those plays too and definitely getting on them early
     
  27. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Early Wagers)

    Haven't posted the spreadsheet yet. Right now the thread is just what it is. The numbers I posted were from the spreadsheet. Those numbers gave suggestions at what it thinks the lines should be.
     
  28. ucfknight333

    ucfknight333 New Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Early Wagers)

    Any chance you could post the results from the past few years?
     
  29. Trojan Lore

    Trojan Lore New Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Early Wagers)

    Arkansas is dropping, you might want to wait
     
  30. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Early Wagers)

    Sem--I know last year you posted a screen shot of your spreadsheet.....do you plan on doing that this year again or just giving us your plays. either way, thanks for this.

    --I dont know if it matters either way
     
  31. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Early Wagers)

    When the system number (raw numbers I posted earlier) are 7 or more off from the betting line:

    2008: 9-3 (75%)
    2007: 10-8 (56%)
    2006: 12-4 (75%)
     
  32. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Early Wagers)

    Yeah I saw it dropped to 7.5 on Pinny. Haven't seen it lower than 8 anywhere else though. The double hook better not come back to haunt me. :curses:
     
  33. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Early Wagers)

    I'll probably post that sometime later this week or tomorrow night at the earliest. Still trying to get some more numbers on the sheet this year, other than the raw system numbers, to help you guys and me.
     
  34. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Early Wagers)

    awesome..thanks.
     
  35. ppos31

    ppos31 Well-Known Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Early Wagers)

    spreadsheet hasn't been posted yet has it?
     
  36. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Early Wagers)

    not that i have seen
     
  37. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Early Wagers)

    Sheet should be posted by Mon or Tues. Picks for Week 1 will be up around that time as well.
     
  38. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Early Wagers)

    [​IMG]
     
  39. Trojan Lore

    Trojan Lore New Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet Posted)

    Thanks SEM
     
  40. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet Posted)

    Sheet is posted.

    Couple Notes:

    "System Diff" are the raw numbers that were posted earlier. Those are the actual system numbers on what they think the line should be. "SF Outplay Factor" is the StatFox Outplay number that they come up with. Same with the "SF Power Line." The bold and underlined lines are those that are 7 or more off.

    In the "Spread" and "Total" column, the number in grey is the opening line. If the line hasn't moved, there is no gray number. The black numbers are current numbers.

    The "Off O/U" and "Def O/U" are numbers from a O/U system I've borrowed that worked well last year and was one of the reasons for the big PSU/USC large play on the over that hit easily. The "Avg O/U" is just an average of the two numbers. Numbers that are 10 or more off are either red (under) or green (over).

    Again all these numbers are suggestions. I wouldn't play solely based off one number.
     
  41. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet Posted)

    No problem. Thank you.
     
  42. All_Luck

    All_Luck OK. Cool Husk em!
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet Posted)

    Sorry for being ignorant in advance. How do you make plays off the sheet?
     
  43. ucfknight333

    ucfknight333 New Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet Posted)

    Thanks for this SEM. Are you going to put your unit recommendations in each write-up?
     
  44. bakonole

    bakonole Well-Known Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet Posted)

    Week 1 picks coming soon Sem? thanks for the job you do on the sheet. This is going to be fun :beerchug:
     
  45. ppos31

    ppos31 Well-Known Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet Posted)

    Awesome Sem.... Thanks for the work u put in... I feel like I need a fucking decoder ring for this shit! Love it.
     
  46. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet Posted)

    Picks for pre-christmas games up tomorrow.
     
  47. soonerintx

    soonerintx New Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet Posted)

    :beerchug:
     
  48. AUtigers28

    AUtigers28 New Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet Posted)

    Hell yes! :beerchug:
     
  49. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet Posted)

    Sem--when looking at the O/U, would you go by the average of the Off and Def #'s or do they not mean anything together....

    Thanks for the work..... :thumb:
     
  50. Godspeed11

    Godspeed11 New Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet Posted)

    Sem is the system diff what to go off of, or the sf outplay/ sf power line? For example, Nebraska v. Arizona...the outplay has Nebraska -8.9, powerline Nebraska -5, and system difference has zona -7.5. So, Nebraska and Zona are both plays??? I thought the idea was to go off the system diff. I don't remember the other two from last year. Any clarification would be great.