Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 16-8, +23.0 Units (Jan 1 Picks) Sem, you are f**king money! What time will you have your Saturday picks up?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 1 Picks) I'll have Saturday up in the morning. Already on Arkansas.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 1 Picks) My f'in bookie wouldn't pick up my call yesterday. But the way I've torched him this year, I would prob do the same. Good work so far Sem.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 1 Picks) ***USF/UNI Under 49 ****Arkansas -8 **Ole Miss/Oklahoma State Over 51 **UConn +3.5
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 2 Picks) Updated Sheet Green = Correct System Pick, Favorite Covering, or Over the Total Red = Incorrect System Pick, Underdog Covering, or Under the Total Beige Fill-in = Incorrect O/U System Pick
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 2 Picks) (Updated Sheet Pg 7) Notes on System: -Underdogs are 15-9-1 this bowl season -There have been 12 overs and 13 unders -Off O/U Number is 19-6 (76%), 4-0 when the number differs by >10 points -When all the O/U numbers are on the same side, it's been correct 9 out of 12 times (75%) -The System Diff number is 16-9 ATS (64%), 6-3 ATS when the number differs by >6 points
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 2 Picks) (Updated Sheet Pg 7) I "like" the under in the USF/ N. Ill. game a lot
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 2 Picks) (Updated Sheet Pg 7) The Big O said never used Love when gambling!!
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 2 Picks) (Updated Sheet Pg 7) It looks like the spreadsheet is saying to play USCe but you are on UConn. Am I not reading the spreadsheet right?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 2 Picks) (Updated Sheet Pg 7) You're reading it right. Just one of those times I think the sheet might be wrong. Last play against the sheet was Stanford that ended up working out.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 2 Picks) (Updated Sheet Pg 7) SEM, if the TCU game is staying at -8 for now, how would you play this? Would you wait to see if the line changes or still throw in the dough? Still a ?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 2 Picks) (Updated Sheet Pg 7) 4 star from 7.5-9.5
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 2 Picks) (Updated Sheet Pg 7) SEM, Great Change on the SIG. That was awesome when Bowden buried the Spear
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 2 Picks) (Updated Sheet Pg 7) Yes that was pretty awesome. Wish I couldve been there.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 18-8, +29.0 Units (Jan 2 Picks) (Updated Sheet Pg 7) Another reading rainbow the more you know factoid.... Vegas has been off by an average of 11.5 points per game on totals this bowl season. The Off O/U line on the sheet has been slightly better, only off by an average of 10.1 points per game.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 19-8, +32.0 Units (Jan 2 Picks) (Updated Sheet Pg 7) Sem, Any lean on the Texas Tech Michigan State game?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 19-8, +32.0 Units (Jan 2 Picks) (Updated Sheet P SEM, i know u havent posted a bet for tonights game....but what r u leaning towards..bodog has it at 8.5 now
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 20-9, +31.8 Units (Jan 2 Picks) (Updated Sheet Pg 7) System says Michigan State. Off O/U has it as an over. I'm just not comfortable putting anything on the game with the amount of MSU players suspended and not knowing whether the TT players will have a let down because of Leach. If anything, I guess maybe I put a little on the over just because of how well that system is going. But again, I'm not risking anything tonight.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 20-10, +27.4 Units (Jan 4 Picks)(Updated Sheet Pg 7) January 4th Picks: *****TCU -7 (-120) or **** from 7.5-9.5 ***TCU/Boise Over 54.5
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 20-10, +27.4 Units (Jan 4 Picks)(Updated Sheet Pg 7) SEM, since this is your first five star play of the bowl season are you saying that making a big play on this game should pay off, im down a bit and would love to make up for it tonight.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 20-10, +27.4 Units (Jan 4 Picks)(Updated Sheet Pg 7) All it means is that I think the bet warrants 5% of your bankroll. No need to chase. The NFL thread is going pretty well right now, 12-0 ATS in my last 12.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 20-10, +27.4 Units (Jan 4 Picks)(Updated Sheet Pg 7) The Off O/U was again on fire, going perfect on Saturday. It's now 24-6 (80%). It's been off from the actual total by an average of 11.48 points per game, compared to Vegas being off by an average of 12.88 points per game.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 20-10, +27.4 Units (Jan 4 Picks)(Updated Sheet Pg 7) [size=14pt]January 4th-6th Picks *****TCU -7 (-120) ****GT/Iowa Under 51 ***TCU/Boise Over 54.5 (Now at 53.5 and 53 at most places) ***Central Michigan -3 **Iowa +5.5 **CMU/Troy Over 63
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 20-10, +27.4 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) Sem, Iowa +4.5 Central Mich -3.5 Thoughts?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 20-10, +27.4 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) 5 isn't a critical number so I don't see much of a difference there. I'd buy CMU down to -3 if you can.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 20-10, +27.4 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) Sem, are you going to have a pick for the national title game?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 20-10, +27.4 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) iowa's got a good chance to win that game outright
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 20-10, +27.4 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) Little bounceback after the Fiesta Bowl.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 20-10, +27.4 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) Why the hell was the over/under set at 51 for Iowa GT Sem?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 22-12, +24.6 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) Quick question, seems like 60% of the public is on the over tonight, and the total has dropped a point. I live in ALabama, and all I can say is 20 degrees here hurts. If you don't mind, why do you like over. Thanks, and keep it rolling.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 22-12, +24.6 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) Sem, why no play on Central Michigan tonight? The spreadsheet seems to indicate it's a solid play. Are you worried about a homefield advantage for Troy? It seems to me there have been several games this year where the oddsmakers have underestimated Central Michigan and they've won convincingly every time.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 22-12, +24.6 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) Aero look up a couple of posts and he is playing cmu
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 22-12, +24.6 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) Sem--did you take down your spreadsheet?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 22-12, +24.6 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) Thank god for Iowa and the under last night! Come on CMU tonight.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 22-12, +24.6 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) The spreadsheet is still there for me. You can't see it?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 22-12, +24.6 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) I couldnt tell if you were being serious or not, but it isnt showing up in any of the posts you had it in before.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 22-12, +24.6 Units (Jan 4th-6th Picks) [size=14pt]BCS Championship Game: ****Texas/Bama Over 45 **Alabama -4
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 23-12, +26.6 Units (BCS Game) I hope these hit. I have 2 parlays that pay out $75 for Bama at -3.5 and the Tie Breaker in my work bowl pick'em is total points. I need over 53 to win $175. BOL Sem
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 23-12, +26.6 Units (BCS Game) I am going to play it the same way as last night. I am going to gamble and hope that is a low scoring first quarter, wait for the live bet to come down and try to pull the trigger at 40 where your avg is at on FSUsem's sheet. I think the probability for a low scoring period of time is realistic, and even more realistic at the start... If that doesn't happen at the start, I will wait it out and hope that I can get in at the same over/under at some point in the game.. I believe Texas is going to preserve the clock, go to the air more anyhow cause of the alabama rushing d. On the other side, I think Alabama is going to run the ball, but Texas will play a run d and make alabama beat them in the air.. This will open up and it should at the least help preserve the clock and give us more shots at big plays... One thing I haven't looked at is the red zone offense/defense for both yet.. What do we know there?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 23-12, +26.6 Units (BCS Game) Question for the board: I got Texas to win the national championship at 6 to 1 before the season started. Do I let it all ride on Texas, or should I put a little on Bama right now? I'm thinking of adding Sem's play's to my Texas pick. Thoughts?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 23-12, +26.6 Units (BCS Game) How much do you have wagered on the 6:1 bet?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 23-12, +26.6 Units (BCS Game) I've got $100 to win $600. I've been using your plays and putting down $100 for each * you give each game. Thanks for the picks by the way.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 23-12, +26.6 Units (BCS Game) If you put $200 on Bama (-180) to win, you'll at least come out with $100 and possibly $240 if Texas wins. That seems to be close to best-case for you.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread 23-12, +26.6 Units (BCS Game) No problem. There are only 3 options for you. This is assuming you have -175 moneyline odds on Bama. Option 1: Let it ride Texas Wins: Win $600 Bama Wins: Lose $100 Option 2: Place $175 to win $100 on Bama Moneyline Texas Wins: Win $425 Bama Wins: Break Even Option 3: Place $350 to win $200 on Bama Moneyline Texas Wins: Win $250 Bama Wins: Win $100 It's up to you.