Always fall just short when I throw out a sgp. Had Bennett over 271 yards, Bowers over 4.5 catches and 62 yards, Duggan rushing td and then McIntosh over 58 yards. McIntosh with only 3 carries for 7 yards in the second half
Got crazy lucky and hit two parlays tonight. jazz were down 7 with 2 minutes left and came back to score a 4 leg Kansas was down 10 with five minutes left and came back to win for a 6 leg. Also got them at +240 at that same time.
cinci-bal line has moved enough to where the cash out option exceeds my original bet. wonder if it's worth it to just cash out and bet the ML.
In terms of expected value, the ranking is: 1. Hey you did a good bet, nice one. Let it ride 2. Finding the most favorable opposing line on another book and hedge 3. Cash out Cashing out is only viable if you don't have a second book or if the hedge on another site would be too expensive
All of my teams suck, though, but I'm pulling for you. My in-laws live in Ponte Vedra, so I kinda have to.
i know you mentioned this before but how do you reconcile it? the public money is on the jags. supposedly the algorithms are, too. mike williams was announced as out. and yet the line moved 1 pt closer to the jags mid-week but is back at -2.5 chargers. doesn't really make sense. i bet jags last sunday night, too, so it's not like this is some sort of bias here.
Mike Williams being announced as out has nothing to do with anything...everyone knew he was out. So ignore that part As for the rest, there's a lot of things. There's only a 1.9% chance that the Chargers win by exactly two, so movement from 1.5 and 2.5 isn't a big move. Also, public money is a big discussion on the spread, many people ignore -1.5 favorites with the spread, they take the moneyline instead. So it's unsurprising that ML split is on the Chargers. Also, there could be quite a bit of future-related hedging...southern California is a very big source of money and the Chargers were a preseason darling while nobody cares about Jacksonville (sorry dbl) This is also conjecture but I have a theory on certain spreads that they're made to attract money. No, there's no such thing as a "trap line" but I wouldn't be shocked to learn that a line was set at -2.5 creates a higher EV for the book than a pick-em line, even if the book has it as pick-em. It basically drives down the price on the heavily-bet Chargers ML while splitting bettors across both ML and spread. With just a ~4.2% chance of the Jags winning by 1 or 2, it might be higher EV. But again, speculation on that part
I hate when I get greedy. Seattle was +17.5 at -121 down 6-0 and facing a 3rd down at their kwn 25 or so. Was hoping they'd not get it so I'd get an even better number. Instead they got it, proceeded to score, and now lead, it's down to +4.5, and I'm left with no action on the game.
Either dbl makes an absurd amount of money or Ohhi's analytics and dbl take a beating. Stay tuned, I'm intrigued.
I'm dying at Bosa making it exactly a two point game after saying how meaningless a two point game is. Either way, the math is the math. I'm in it for the long-term and high volume, I don't really care about day-to-day
Dolphins/Bills u44 I just don't see the Dolphins scoring much without Tua or even Teddy. If the Bills get big early, they can take their foot off the gas. Coupd easily see 31-10 type game or 28-3.
seems like vegas is going to need baltimore to hang tough versus cinci or the most obvious 3-team teaser and ml parlay of all time is going to hit comfortably
I took Miami’s TT over 7.5 in the 2nd half just because and I’m thinking that’s going to be a challenge even after scoring less than a minute into the half lol