Spoiler: Dork Chatelain: The lost opportunities and unbelievability of Scott Frost's one-score losses The many faces of Scott Frost from some of his 17 one-score losses as the head coach at Nebraska. Clockwise from top left: Troy 2018, Northwestern 2018, Northwestern 2020, Oklahoma 2021, Colorado 2019, Colorado 2018, Illinois 2021 and Iowa 2018. THE WORLD-HERALD Why would you even consider reading this column? Don’t you have flowers to pick? Puppies to pet? Grandchildren to call? Why would you spend five minutes of your day reflecting on Scott Frost’s 5-17 record in games decided by eight points or fewer? Among Power Five schools, only North Carolina has lost more than 12 — the Tar Heels are 7-14 in one-score games since August 2018. Better question: Why would any sane sports writer spend hours ranking those 17 gut-punches? Yet here we are, building on a foundation of journalistic excellence that predates Frost. In 2015, I ranked Nebraska’s 66 losses since Black Friday 2001. In 2020, I expanded the ranking to 100. While many Husker cheerleaders cried foul — why pull at old scabs, you hack? — others recognized the value of a good therapy session. Exorcising demons starts with acknowledging their existence, right? People are also reading… That’s the justification. That, and my sports editor made me do it (send your hate mail to him, please). So how do you rank one-score losses? We could do it several ways, like how poorly Nebraska played or which performances generate the most criticism. But if our measurement is pain, then let’s focus on two specific factors: What a victory would’ve meant: The sense of “what if.” Generally, this gives weight to better opponents or games with tangible consequences, like qualifying for a bowl. Unbelievability: In other words, how the heck did Nebraska lose? Pain intensifies when the Huskers outplay the opponent, yet improbably snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. We awarded bonus points for novelty — when the loss happens because of a fluky play or plays. We removed points for moral victories — when fans take encouragement from the performance. Regardless of your feelings, this won’t be easy. Cover your eyes, if you need. Skim the list, if you prefer. But we’re digging in, for better or worse. Remember: What doesn’t kill your fandom makes it stronger. PLOTTING THE LOSSES We placed each one of Scott Frost's 17 one-score losses at Nebraska on a scatter plot. Along the X axis is the "opportunity lost" — as in what a victory would've meant for the Huskers. Along the Y axis is the "unbelievability" — as in how the heck did they lose that one? And below the scatter plot is Dirk Chatelain's ranking of each loss. GRAPHIC BY HUNTER PANIAGUA, THE WORLD-HERALD RANKING THE LOSSES 17. Minnesota 2020 (24-17) Win probability, according to ESPN metrics, peaked at: 58% If a home team collapses in an empty stadium and nobody hears it, did it happen? Sadly, yes. P.J. Fleck’s squad hadn’t played in three weeks and was missing roughly 33 players due to injuries and COVID-related issues. But the Gophers held the ball for 36 minutes and seized on Husker mistakes. A 9-yard loss (after a fumbled swing pass) on the first Husker snap. An 8-yard shanked punt. A targeting ejection of Cam Taylor-Britt. Two costly turnovers leading to Minnesota touchdowns. "I hate to even say this,” Frost said. “We had our best week of practice, offensively, maybe since I've been at Nebraska.” That didn’t make anyone feel better. 16. Troy 2018 (24-19) Troy's Marcus Jones breaks up a pass intended for Nebraska's Stanley Morgan in 2018. Z LONG, THE WORLD-HERALD Win probability peaked at: 85% In Frost’s second game, you saw the first cracks in the special-teams infrastructure. Sure, Adrian Martinez’s knee injury gave Troy a chance. In his place, Andrew Bunch threw two interceptions. But the key play was Troy’s 58-yard punt return for a touchdown. The Trojans jumped ahead 17-0 and hung on, adding insult to injury with a $1.15 million appearance fee. C’mon, you’re only supposed to take the money if you lose. 15. Indiana 2019 (38-31) Win probability peaked at: 73% Martinez missed this game, too. Freshmen Luke McCaffrey and Wan’Dale Robinson excited the crowd. But as the team wore alternate black uniforms, the Blackshirts couldn’t hold up, allowing three consecutive touchdown drives. “We seem to find new and innovative ways to give a game away,” Frost said. If he only knew. 14. Colorado 2018 (33-28) Win probability peaked at: 90% Frost’s debut merits an asterisk. Ordinarily, coughing up a 28-20 lead to your ex-rival on your home field would be devastating, especially after officials flagged Antonio Reed for a personal foul after a third-and-24 incompletion on Colorado’s final drive. (Ouch.) But context is important. The Akron opener had been canceled. The previous season had been a debacle. An entertaining game, even a loss, felt satisfying. Besides, Frost’s freshman quarterback, Martinez, looked like a future star. But in the details, you saw glimpses of the future: a 170-yard advantage in total yards negated by a minus-3 turnover deficit. 13. Iowa 2018 (31-28) Win probability peaked at: 47% The Huskers almost stole one. They fell behind 28-13 at Kinnick, but the game turned when Kirk Ferentz got cute with a fake field goal at the NU 3. Martinez spearheaded a 15-point rally, first with a 98-yard drive, then another touchdown with 3:22 left. But Iowa converted a fourth-and-8 from the Nebraska 38 and booted a 41-yard field goal as time expired. Another foreshadowing moment. 12. Ohio State 2018 (36-31) Win probability peaked at: 43% The Huskers forced three Buckeye turnovers and racked up 450 total yards. But shaky special teams — a failed onside kick and a blocked punt — didn’t help. Nor did a third-quarter offensive drought. What could’ve been a scrapbook win slipped away in the final 20 minutes. “That’s a two-win team that people don’t want to play right now,” OSU coach Urban Meyer said. Meyer meant it as a compliment, but it’s not exactly a badge of honor. 11. Iowa 2020 (26-20) Win probability peaked at: 42% Despite Cam Jurgens’ wild snaps (clap, clap!) and a scoreless final 25 minutes, the Huskers still had a chance, needing 40 more yards with 1:25 to go. But Matt Farniok missed a block and Martinez fumbled as he got crunched. It was another clutch opportunity wasted, the connective tissue that binds Frost’s four seasons. “Sooner or later,” Frost said, “we need to be buttoned up and detailed enough to make sure these close games go our way.” 10. Minnesota 2021 (30-23) Nebraska's Adrian Martinez walks off the field after he threw an incomplete pass on fourth down against Minnesota in 2021. EILEEN T. MESLAR, THE WORLD-HERALD Win probability peaked at: 61% If 2021 goes south, this might dip in the rankings. The Huskers were thoroughly beaten, and it was mediocre Minnesota, not Michigan. But hopefully we remember just how well Nebraska played the month before. It might have overcome a sloppy start, but three consecutive second-half drives inside the Gopher 30 didn’t produce a single point. Ouch. "Little details got us beat," Frost said. "I know the guys are tired of hearing that. I'm tired of saying it, but that's what it is." 9. Illinois 2021 (30-22) Win probability peaked at: 80% Not your typical close-loss agony. At one point, Nebraska trailed 30-9. But it definitely felt like the Huskers gave it away. First with special-teams gaffes, highlighted by Cam Taylor-Britt’s punt-return safety. Then with offensive futility, highlighted by Martinez’s second-quarter fumble, which Illinois returned for six. Then with penalties — officials negated an interception because Caleb Tannor roughed the quarterback. All in all, a season-opening sequel to 2020. “The one thing we've never gotten around here is a spark,” Frost said. “We need to win a couple close games, string some wins together, get some momentum.” 8. Northwestern 2020 (21-13) Nebraska's Ty Robinson tries to tackles Northwestern's Peyton Ramsey in 2020. ANNA REED, THE WORLD-HERALD Win probability peaked at: 64% The Huskers rolled up 88 offensive snaps and outyarded the West Division champs 442-317. But the offense melted down in Northwestern territory — eight trips, 10 points! — thanks to two interceptions, a missed field goal and penalties that sunk promising drives. First it happened under Martinez, then McCaffrey. Nebraska’s only touchdown came after Myles Farmer returned an interception to the Northwestern 3-yard line. "To play like we played, and only have 13 points, that starts with me," Frost said. 7. Oklahoma 2021 (23-16) Win probability peaked at: 25% Put it under the category of “moral victory.” Did anyone outside the Husker fan base think Nebraska was going to complete the upset? Probably not. But for long stretches, the Huskers appeared capable. The difference? A porous offensive line (five sacks, six penalties) and another brutal kicking performance. Four trips into OU territory after halftime produced 13 points. That doesn’t count the two allowed when the Sooners ran back a blocked extra point. "We spotted them nine points and we lost by seven," JoJo Domann said. 6. Purdue 2019 (31-27) Win probability peaked at: 79% How did Nebraska, after blocking two punts and intercepting two passes, lose to a 2-6 team captained by a third-string quarterback? Red-zone efficiency. In seven trips into Purdue territory, Nebraska scored 10 points. The worst example? Nebraska had first-and-goal at the 2 when Frost called three failed passes. A fourth-down delay of game forced a field goal. In the fourth quarter, the Blackshirts fell apart, yielding two long fourth-quarter touchdown drives. “I came back to Nebraska to get this fixed, and I'm gonna do it,” Frost said. 5. Michigan 2021 (32-29) Win probability peaked at: 69% If the atmosphere hadn’t been so invigorating and the second-half theatrics so pulsating, this would rank even higher. How many chances do you get to beat a top-10 opponent at home in prime time? The Husker offense rallied from a scoreless first half, throwing big-play haymakers, but couldn’t get enough stops. And when the offense really had to take care of the ball or produce a go-ahead drive, it couldn’t. Martinez’s fumble inside the rugby scrum will go down in Husker infamy. “It's hard to imagine the things that have happened to us all happening to us,” Frost said. Michigan's Brad Hawkins recovers the ball after Nebraska's Adrian Martinez fumbled late in the fourth quarter in 2021. ANNA REED, THE WORLD-HERALD 4. Iowa 2019 (27-24) Win probability peaked at: 60% Since Bo Pelini rallied to beat the Hawkeyes in his finale (and Shawn Eichorst insulted the black and gold), Ferentz has tormented Nebraska in countless ways. But this version was the toughest to swallow. With bowl eligibility at stake, Nebraska juggled quarterbacks and rallied from 24-10 down to tie. The Blackshirts swarmed. The home crowd buzzed. But on four fourth-quarter drives, Nebraska’s offense produced 21 yards and one first down. Frost played for overtime and the Hawkeyes completed back-to-back 22-yard passes, setting up a 48-yard Keith Duncan game-winner. "I've had too many of those conversations with these guys," Frost said. 3. Northwestern 2018 (34-31, OT) Win probability peaked at: 99% Why, oh why, would a sixth consecutive loss to open the Frost era (and 10th overall) rank so high on this list? You had to see it to believe it. Trailing 31-21 with 5:24 left, Northwestern faced a fourth-and-10 at its 25-yard line. One incompletion and the game is over. The Huskers couldn’t get it. The rest of the game, including an overtime interception from Martinez, felt like death by paper cuts. "There's 100 ways we could have won that game," Frost said. Nebraska couldn’t find a single one. 2. Colorado 2019 (34-31, OT) Colorado's James Stefanou kicks an overtime field goal over the Nebraska's defenders in 2019. BRENDAN SULLIVAN, THE WORLD-HERALD Win probability peaked at: 96% If you turned off the game at halftime, with the road team leading 17-0 and outyarding Colorado 266-84, you might have thought Nebraska won by 40. No kidding. You would’ve missed the offense tripping and the defense collapsing. You would’ve missed the Buffs’ 24-point fourth quarter, their 96-yard touchdown pass and their tying 26-yard TD with 46 seconds left. You would’ve missed Nebraska’s pitiful overtime possession that lost 6 yards, derailing Frost’s promising second season. “I’ve only been part of a couple that are tougher than this,” Frost said. On second thought, maybe you should’ve turned it off at half. 1. Michigan State 2021 (23-20, OT) Win probability peaked at: 94% C’mon, is there any other choice? Any other Frost loss that left Husker fans so despondent, so confused, so ... empty? Undefeated Michigan State did not produce a first down the entire second half — and won! Doesn’t that violate some sort of rule? Nebraska's Marquel Dismuke walks toward the tunnel after Michigan State wins in overtime in 2021. LILY SMITH, THE WORLD-HERALD The Huskers squeezed a 20-13 lead with four minutes left when punter Daniel Cerni booted a line drive juuuuuuust a bit off his target. No harm done, right? Except Spartan blockers coaxed Husker tacklers to the right sideline, when the ball actually landed on the left half in the hands of returner Jayden Reed, who ran 62 yards for a score. “We had no business losing that game,” Frost said after his offense stumbled again in OT. If Frost ultimately fails at Nebraska, that single line might be the epitaph. But even if he turns it around, these first 40 games will surely stand as the most befuddling, maddening, agonizing gantlet in program history. Pelini, from September 2012 to January 2014, went 9-0 in games decided by six points or fewer. At this point, Frost and his fans would celebrate one coin-flip win. Instead, they’re wondering how else Nebraska could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. One of these days, it’ll turn for Big Red. Prosperity and good fortune will spread like smiles on Halloween night. Until then, worst-case scenarios consume our time and imagination. Sick, twisted souls, we are.
I’d forgotten a lot of these details. Honestly this is amazing and I’m not even joking. I don’t understand how it’s possible to step on your own dick that much.
The win probability chart is what really does it for me. It’s not only they are losing close games, they are losing close games where it’s not a coin-flip, it’s where Vegas would never go. Losing games where the odds are playing heavily in your favor. It’s actually impressive, kind of like hitting on a 6-8 team parlay. Sure, it happens, but you won’t stop talking about it for a long fucking time because it’s just not supposed to happen.
The only one I remember that we shockingly won was his first year against Michigan State. that’s the point I was sure this thing would work. Recruiting was going well, the team seemed to love him, and they started to do the little things to win & not lose (they overplayed Ohio State before that and we’re playing over their talent). I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again (obviously they do some stupid ass things to prepare in spring and summer and those manifest themself now and could be cured if….) they won at Colorado when they dominated the first half 17-0. It seems like that just fucked the program. It just seemed to lose momentum from that time going forward.
They beat NW in 2019, it was 13-10, Vedral was the QB for the final drive and our like 7th string kicker hit a GW FG that barely cleared the cross bar.
I’m not trying to be an ass, but that game was won on a fg from like 20 yards that didn’t get blocked because they missed it. Most Scoots Farts win of a lucky win we have.
(I appreciate you The Hebrew Husker but I can’t appreciate this football team so you just got snapped back by my mad)
You really need to stop blaming a bad football program for your also bad football program. Point the thumb OZ.
One score wins: 2018 - Michigan State 9-6 2019 - Illinois 42-38 2019 - Northwestern 13-0 2020 - Penn State 30-23 2020 - Rutgers 28-21
It would actually be better for Scott if we lost by 2 scores more because considering the script we’ve seen 30 times it’s clear we have the players to compete with most teams. But we don’t have the coaching that allows them to be confident in big moments
ICYMI Missouri’s football class is 62 spot higher than ours because they can recruit cities like Omaha and KC and poor Scoots doesn’t have that luxury
Any of you cunt-monkeys actually Husking for a change? Had myself a Pelini-tier week just now so I’m Old School Dirtin’
Yes! Back and hear to stay! I expect to be hearing about a stripper handy hours before a redeye flight tomorrow
EVEN BETTER!!! I’m drubbed in the kids Minecraft bed watching DragonBall Z with him!!! Spoiler Please kill me now Scoots
Starting to wonder if I'd wanna hire any coaches out of the Big XII. Whole conference is one big mess of bad football
Today i learned that they had to ruin college overtime play. That shit was awful. Then just goin for 2 is fuckin stupid
I like how the game before ours is going to run an hour and a half over on BTN so they send us to the Fox Sports app which is also airing Wisc-PSU instead of our game. Big Ten can suck so many bags of dicks