I went back the through the 2008 season to today. I only counted Saturday games, just because it was easier. I think the number would be more drastic if I include mid-week games. All of these numbers are based on when the visiting team is getting 65% of the bets. The visiting team has been an underdog 6 times and only covered twice. If the visiting team is favored by more than 14 points, they have covered 18 of 38 times. If the visiting team if favored by 7.5 up to 14, they covered 32 of 57 times = + money *****HOWEVER, if the visiting team is favored by 7 or less, the only covered 20 of 60 times. Of the 40 times they didnt cover, they lost 29 of them. Vegas doesnt like to give away money, ever. Games this week that fit the trend so far are..... Cal -3 @ Nevada Troy -3.5 @ UAB Navy -3.5 @ La Tech UConn -6 @ Temple Houston -3 @ UCLA Nebraska -3 @ Washington Iowa -1.5 @ Arizona Texas -3 @ Tech
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... tbh looking at the games this week. I don't see any way Nebraska or Iowa loses
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... Only way is if their opponents score more points than they do.
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... I got most of those games and it scares the shit out of me. But I am looking at it like this: If things go the way they are suppose to go, then all will win.
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... Not sure if u know but was reading today Iowa Defense Coordinator wont be coaching Saturday
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... just going to be interesting.....if i have time, I will do through 2007 and 2006 as well.
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... yes, but Wilson called plays last week for Iowa and he's calling them this sat
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... also the Pac 10's best capper on Rx went Nebraska and Cal as well. Not that it matters. Washington won't be able to stop the read option
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... Went back through 2006 and tracked any game with 65% on road fav of 7 or less. Saturday games: Favorites went 55-86 for a 39% ATS. Non-Saturday games: Favorites went 14-27 for a 34% ATS. If you blindly play against the public, since 2006, following this you are 113-69 for +37.1 Units in 3+ years......definitely going to keep tracking this
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... covers consensus. I use both sportsinsights and covers, but covers was easier to go back and track. FWIW, Covers is usually lower than sportsinsights.
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... Week 3 Cal -3 @ Nevada W Troy -3.5 @ UAB W Navy -3.5 @ La Tech L UConn -6 @ Temple W Houston -3 @ UCLA W Nebraska -3 @ Washington L Iowa -1.5 @ Arizona Zona became a Fav Texas -3 @ Tech Texas ended with 63% of bets and didnt fit the trend. Went 4-2 with all 4 home teams that covered winning.
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... Week 4 Teams that fit the system. Miss St -1 v GeorgiaW Arkansas +6.5 v Bama W UL Laffy +2 v Midd Tenn St L BYU +5 v NevadaL La Tech +3.5 v So MissW Rutgers +3 v UNCL
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... after a split in week 4, week 5 went 3-2 with two of the dogs winning outright. Minny +6 W BC +3 L Colorado +5 outright winner Virginia +7 L Iowa State +7 outright winner Week 1: no situations Week 2: 1-1 Week 3: 5-2 Week 4: 3-3 Week 5: 3-2 This year: 12-8 Since 2005: 146-91
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... Setting up perfectly for me to get burned on Bama again this week. The bait is just to much for me
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... It is a tough system to play, requires you to turn off your brain bc you are always going against what seems obvious.
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... Friday: Rutgers +5 is a play in this system. WE will see how it goes.
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... didnt get to post the play in time, but they were: USCe +7 Kentucky +6 Iowa St +6 TAMU +5 and they went 2-2. But, with the Rutgers win, went 3-2 for the week. It is 15-10 YTD. I will post the plays earlier next saturday. sorry about forgetting.
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs..... Week 7 Possibilities--I will update as the week gets closer Wed: Marshall +7 Thurs: Kansas +3 Saturday: SDSU +3 ECU +7 Virginia +7 Colorado +2 Washington +1 Kentucky +6 Hawaii +7 Read more: http://locksville.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=ncaa&thread=6439&page=2#ixzz125Fa1RFA
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 Week 7 Wed: Marshall +6 L Thursday: Kansas +3L Saturday: Kentucky +6 Virginia +7 San Diego State +1 Colorado +2 East Carolina +7
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 Dr. Bob has a 3 star play on UCF FWIW
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 he might very well be on the right side. the joy about this system, or any other, is that you can't afford to pick and chose. it has already provided a few gut checks this year......
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 he was dead on. UCF is much better than i gave them credit for last week. thursday: Kansas +3
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 so did you system hit last night?
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 Are you being facetious?
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 if you are being as ass...thanks. if not, no it didnt hit. now 15-11 YTD
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 Was def not being am ass... Lazy for the most part. Sorry if you thought so.
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 no worries. system lost again last night, now 15-12 YTD. Will have some plays for Saturday
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 I can't wait to see the results over the weekend, bol
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 favorites continue to dominate thursday night games. at least a couple of losses are out of the way. should turn in some winners tomorrow and get the record back above 50% for the week kansas is fucking terrible. which makes kstate look exponentially better than when they played nebraska, which in turn makes nebraska look unstoppable. therefore, i'm loving texas and the points. maybe even a small money line bet
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 does s carolina fall into the road fav less than 7 pts trend? wasnt this category overwhelmingly in favor of the dog?
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 Last week SCar was the team to play on. This week, it looked like the play would be against them early on. The line went off the board at over 70% were on SCar. The line re-opened at -4.5/5 and since then, but public seems to be on Kentucky. Right now, where I track and how I have kept track in the system, you would play against SCar. It will be interested to see which side the bets come on throughout the day tomorrow. I will update again Sat morning and then again before the 3:30 games.
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....15-10 YTD, lots of possible plays Week 7 Saturday: Kentucky +6 Virginia +7 San Diego State +1 Colorado +2 East Carolina +7 Hawaii +6 4-2 on Saturday, 4-4 on the week. 4 outright winners though.
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....19-14 YTD, Week 7 = 4-4, but 4 dog winners you lookin at em this week?
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....19-14 YTD, Week 7 = 4-4, but 4 dog winners yup....just about to post
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....19-14 YTD, Week 7 = 4-4, but 4 dog winners Week 8: Definite plays: Colorado +3--Push Northwestern +6L Buffalo +7L Mizzou +3W Akron +7L Utah St +3.5L
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....19-14 YTD, Week 7 = 4-4, but 4 dog winners Akron and Utah State are both plays.
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....19-14 YTD, Week 8 up shit. I wanted it I just had no idea about northwestern so I stayed away
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....19-14 YTD, Week 8 up holy hell they scored again, dan must have had money on this.
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....19-14 YTD, Week 8 up are you fucking kidding me about Northwestern. Bad enough to lose, but then, when down 1 and the other team just wants to run out the clock, you give up another TD....this is going to be a bad day for me. i can already tell
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....19-14 YTD, Week 7 = 4-4, but 4 dog winners wow---0-4-1 with only Mizzou to save the skunk
Re: Intersting Stat with Road Favs.....20-18 YTD, Week 9 possibilities up Here is a list of teams that might fit the system. Will update late Friday or early Sat. Week 9---lots of plays UConn +6 Indiana +3 BC +7 Washington +7 Air Force +7 Ole Miss +7 USC +7 Buffalo +3 Kansas St +5 NMSU +3 Penn St +3