aks lineup (Post, Horse, Jockey, Morning line) 1. Joyful Victory, M. Smith, 5-2 2. Lilacs and Lace, J. Castellano, 12-1 3. Summer Soiree, G.Saez, 5-1 4. Kathmanblu, J. Leparoux, 4-1 5. Suave Voir Faire, M. Mena, 50-1 6. Zazu, J. Rosario, 4-1 7. Her Smile, G. Gomez, 20-1 8. Bouquet Booth, R. Albarado, 20-1 9. Daisy Devine, J. Graham, 20-1 10. Street Storm, S. Bridgmohan, 50-1 11. Holy Heavens, K. Desormeaux, 50-1 12. Plum Pretty, M. Garcia, 5-1 13. St. John’s River, R. Napravnik, 30-1
sway away is one scratch from the starting gate. god please no lol. don't make me have to make this decision
my Girlfriend (who works for a pinhooker in kentucky and is on the backstretch constantly) is telling me that mo is going to be entered and that he is going to scratch on Saturday. she doesn't' BS on stuff like that, she has legit connections. someone might be posturing but she has no reason to lie. BTW pletcher schooled 5 horses this morning and uncle mo was not one of them. Stay Thirsty was one.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Horrible draw for AAA. Shackleford is gonna get bet down from 12/1 if Mo scratches and it's a sloppy track. There's some interest for me in Sway Away as well. I don't know why I bet this race year in and year out other than it's the Derby, the variables of a 20 horse field just too much to effectively handicap I feel like, but the degenerate in me keeps coming back.
horses that have absolutely no shot in hell to win Brilliant Speed Stay Thirsty Decisive Moment Comma to The Top Derby Kitten Twinspired Master of Hounds Santiva Watch Me Go if any of those horses above beats you, damnit it's just not your day. for various reasons, pedigrees, distance limitations, and just playing sucking the joint up, they are all tosses horses that should not win but i can't completely toss out Archarcharch - that post is that damn brutal, if he beats me he just beats me, but there is a reason no one wants the 1 slot Shackleford Twice the Appeal horses that would not surprise me if they won, but i won't be using Pants on Fire Dialed In Soldat Uncle Mo Legit contenders Mucho Macho Man Midnight Interlude Animal Kingdom Nehro
Pretty close to how I feel. There are only a couple changes I would make. First I would switch Brilliant Speed and Twice the Appeal. I don't care if Borel is on him, he just isn't that good of a horse. Brilliant Speed has had a few tough trips, thanks to his stablemate King Congie, plus he managed to close in a race that had a slow pace. If he can translate it to dirt (I know his two dirt races were terrible, but they were his first races, who's to say he hasn't improved?), I could see him getting into the exotics. Second, I would put Soldat into the group of legit contenders. Even if he doesn't get the wet surface, he's still good enough to win. I'm willing to forgive his Florida Derby. I would switch him with Midnight Interlude. I just don't think that the Santa Anita Derby was that strong. He'll be a good one, but I think he regresses a bit. I may mix in a couple other horses, but the three that I am focused on are Nehro, Animal Kingdom, and Soldat. I've seen the comparisons of Nehro to Summer Bird (a horse I loved coming out of the Arkansas Derby), but while there are similarities, Nehro is a little more advanced in his development at this stage because he also ran a nice race in the Louisiana Derby to go along with that Arkansas Derby. I don't think Nehro's upside is quite as high as Summer Bird's was though. I feel more confident with him on a fast track- his workouts on a sloppy track lead me to believe he doesn't relish the slop. I still think Uncle Mo is the best horse in this field, but there are just too many red flags around him right now.
loh shit i almost forgot got a tip for you guys today, race 4, more than minted first time starter, is a runner.
gleam of hope in the 5th, success success in the 8th, i would not bet against our dark knight in the 9th the real racing doesn't start until tomorrow.
Friday picks for churchill downs note i'm a win wager guy, that's all I do so dealwithit.gif Race 4: pickapocket should win this race Race 5: I like kit carson at a price now the big boy racing begins race 6: taking a price with absenthe minded, however the fuck you spell it. blind luck needs to be turned out and unrijvlled belle needs a tightener, and this one's race was better than it looked, she ran her butt off just got beat by the 2 best in the division last race in the apple blossom race 7: holidaysatthefarm can run. hope she stays at that price Race 8: the money will go on azeri's daughter the 1 horse. I like holiday flare alot she has legit talent and is going to be a mid price horse. If she runs back to her last she should win Race 9: this is a tough race. I'm going to take first dude on the trainer switch. his last race was really really nice and I think he has turned the corner. If giant oak runs back to his donn win however this race is over. don't waste your money on caratado on the dirt. he's a turf horse. equestio is the horse that beat dialed in in the allowance race Race 10: honestly i don't have a clue. I like the outside 2 and I like banned, can't tell them apart. I would pass this race it's a grab bag Race 11: I like Zazu here alot. she will eat up 9F and has been running against the best company all along.
Sorry I went to lunch and was running around the rest of the day. Nice 5-1 Winner in the 1st race. Will start looking at Race 6 now.
Meant to be $5 WPS oh well. But nice WIN with the 2. Add 1/2 a Furlong and Success Success wins that race
I've settled on my bets for the Derby. I got one set for a fast track, and one for a sloppy track. Either way, I'm betting a total of $20. Fast Track: $2 WPS- Animal Kingdom (16) $2 Win- Nehro (19) $1 Trifecta box- Animal Kingdom, Soldat, Nehro (16,17,19) $1 Trifecta box- Archarcharch, Mucho Macho Man, Nehro (1,14,19) Sloppy Track: $2 WPS- Animal Kingdom (16) $2 Show- Brilliant Speed (2) $1 Trifecta box- Animal Kingdom, Soldat, Nehro (16,17,19) $1 Exacta box- Brilliant Speed, Animal Kingdom, Soldat (2,16,17)
Race #1: 4/1-3 Race #2: 9 Race #3: 1 Race #4: 9/10-1 Race #5: 5/9-1 Race #6: 10/1-9 Race #7: 6/2-9-10 Race #8: 1-3-4 Race #9: 5/3-6 Race #10: 13/2-3 Race #11: 4/1-6 Race #12: 4/1-2
my girlfriend not my sister. she told me stardom bound was sold to japan like 3 months before it happened, and some other random shit she comes across.
I am of the school find something you are good at, and become really really good at that one thing, which is why I only place win wagers, it's what i am comfortable with. if the pool looks irght place and show as well but i am a strictly win type guy.only time i play exotics is when i'm fucking around, like i might play a bullshit pick 3 tomorrow for kicks
In the early betting, Twice The Appeal is 7-1 and Pants on Fire is 9-1. Thought they would be bet down with their jockeys, but didn't think they would get all the way down to single digits.
It. never.freaking.fails. the exact same reason am tossing nehro, is the exact same reason zazu lost the oaks when it looked like she needed more ground. kicking myself. the race dynamics are different in different races. you just don't take on more ground and the horse goes buy, racing doesn't work like that.
picks for tomorrow race 2: the best 3YO in the country is not in the derby, he's too immature for that. he's in this race. Bind, unload. this horse is the real deal. he got a little rank last race out and still almost won last out, prob further than they should have ran him anyway. By the end of the year, fuck probably by the time the travers comes around this will be the horse everyone is talking about Race 4: Snow Top Mountain is going to be tough Race 6: I literarly just b lindly bet horses sired by more than ready in turf sprints, he's the best turf sprint sire in the world. Regally Ready is sired by more than ready. Bridgetown is the horse to beat but no value. Race 9: I LOVE noble's promise here. he loves this track. his last race he ran into an a buzzsaw, twirling candy broke speticular bid's 7F record in the malibu. they put him up for this race. A prority will bounce off his last i'm sure of it, simling tiger can win it and mythical power is importove. this is actually the best race of the day, but i like the value of noble's promise. Outside of the Kentucky derby he has never lost a race inside the state of Kentucky. He's 0 for 3 outside of Kentucky. Race 10: I'm going to take a stab with Moryba. His first race in america last out was very impressive and nothing in this field scares me. Caracatado should have ran here Race 11: without over thinking this.. i ask myself who I think is the best 10F horse in this race. I think that horse is midnight interlude or AAA. considering how hot baffert is right now, and considering I didn't like the post or the way AAA was training this week, midnight interlude is my pick.
The one BIG knock on Midnight Interlude is he was unraced as a 2 year old and no horse since the 1880's has won the Derby as an unraced 2 year old. I am looking at the following: 13,1,16,19,17,8
that is a bad knock, always has been. curlin didn't race at 3 and won the preakness. Fu Peg, raced literally on december 31st, 1999 and won the kentucky derby. the olld prememis is that a horse did not race at 2 does not have the proper foujndation. well fuck none of these horses have the proper foundation. the fav, dialed in raced 1 time as a 2YO, and only 4 times total. what does winning a maiden race in a walk 1 time as a 2YO give you as an advantage over a field of talanted horses? not much
Got pretty pissed when I turned on ESPN and they were showing softball. Had to look at the guide to see that they are showing the "Prep" on Versus