Wow...Crazy week. The first 6 picks I made all won. Should have just stopped there. Anyway, some other good additions, 2H bets were awful this week. Guess it's only natural those are a coin flip anyway, other than when a team like Arkansas is trailing by 14 at the half. This is 3 straight weeks of my initial plays cashing big time. No time for rest, on to the next.
Yeah I had an amazing noon slate and then about 50/50 since then. USC really screwed me on that fumble. Had them at +8. Oh and my play of the week was Oklahoma State u82.5. Don't worry, the 2nd string defense let it get to 83. Fuck! But still positive for the day
Let's look at possible public dogs this week Syracuse +2.5 @ Yukon Minnesota +28.5 @ Mich St Duke +14.5 @ Miami Vanderbilt +10 @ Florida NWestern +17 @ Nebraska Tulane +23 @ SMU Texas Tech +10.5 @ Texas LSU +4 @ Alabama Wazzu +9.5 @ Cal Utah +4 @ Zona Missouri +1 @ Baylor La Tech +3.5 @ Fresno
Week 10 Cal -9.5 (W; +100) LSU +7 -120 (W; +100) NCSU +5.5 (W; +100) Texas -10.5 (W; +100) Yukon -2.5 (W; +100) Miami -14 (W; +100) Minn 2h o6.5 (W; +50) Ohio +165 (W; +83) Toledo o69 (W; +50) Tulsa 2h +.5 (W; +20) WIN: +803 Florida -10 (2x) (L; -220) Ore St +21.5 (L; -110) Arizona -4 (L; -110) Alabama -170 (L; -170) Wyoming 2h o6.5 (L; -55) TCU 2h o27.5 (L; -55) Toledo 2h u35.5 (L; -22) Akron +450 (L; -20) UCF -1.5 (L; -20) LOSS: -772 TOTAL: +31 (10-9)
@ Line: Texas -10.5 Texas Tech stepped up and beat OU. I think that's still fresh on some people's minds. The reality is they can't stop the run and have been barely better than average this season in every other game. Counting on them having very little left in the tank. We'll see I guess. √ Pick: Texas -10.5
@ Line: Yukon -2.5 I have to say I think the Big East is my favorite conference to bet on. Here I think Syracuse is just not very good on the road. Yukon has a pretty legit defense. It is the Cuse old coach here in Storrs. I think he has something extra for them. √ Pick: Yukon -2.5
@ Line: UF -10 Probably my favorite of the week. Vanderbilt almost beat Arkansas. Florida lost to Georgia. Big overreaction here. √ Pick: UF -10 (2x)
@ Line: UNC -5 I believe in this UNC team, even though they've let me down. The problem is that NCSU always plays them tough. Coming off an embarrassing loss, I look for the Wolfpack to play inspired ball at home. Likely a straight up winner. √ Pick: NCSU +5
@ Line: Stanford -21.5 This is simply a play on a Stanford let down after a 3 OT game on the road. Following up with another road trip against a team they have to be looking past or having trouble to get up for. Ore St just got the breaks beat off themselves against Utah. But we had that one figured. Now, we come right back on them. √ Pick: Ore St +21.5
@ Line: Cal -9.5 Wazzu has been a little bit of a darling, surprise, even caught me a couple weeks ago. They covered against Oregon and Oregon is the dominant run up the score team in this conference so that has to have someone's attention. Great. Cal just went to UCLA and got beat the hell up. Perfect. √ Pick: Cal -9.5
@ Line: Arizona -4 Team off a big win at home vs team off a tough loss on the road. This new coach has Arizona playing well. Utah hasn't put together 2 straight good games in their new conference and won't start here. √ Pick: Arizona -4
King---just a word of caution here. Tx Tech is 3-0 on the road and for whatever, reason, plays much better away from home. dont know if they get too up at home or what, but they seem to approach road games like a business trip. I will wait and see how the public goes before i make a play on this game, but just wanted to give you some info from a guy who follows Tech.
while the trends indicate texas to cover (texas tech being porous on run defense, texas' focus on the ground game), i don't think i am going to touch this unless the line goes below 10. and that is saying a lot because i am a huge homer. i am more interested to see the O/U in this game. i have this capped at high 20s to teens. if O/U is anywhere in the 50s the under is my bet
This week's college games don't look that appealing to play on except the UCONN & UNC games. The UCF-Tulsa game might be interesting along with Akron @ Miami of Ohio. Might pick A&M to cover and possibly win outright, but won't lay a lot of money on them to do either.
yup....already up to -12 now. Texas should run the ball down Tech's throat. who knows if that will happen, but Tech hasn't/can't stop the run.
Tech isn't as good as the OU game and isn't as bad as the ISU game. A "good/normal" Tech team has a shot in Austin this year. Both teams play great, UT wins. Both teams play average, toss up.
i think texas matches up very well against tech, considering how well texas has been running the ball. i agree that the iowa state is not indicative of how bad tech is, but it did solidify the thought that they cannot stop the run whatsoever.
very true. If UT zone reads Tech, Tech will struggle. UT shouldnt have to throw more than 10 passes all game.
whatever it was that seemingly got played at every chance during the TT-OU game when it was nearing the end of the game. thought it was the lone ranger theme/overture?
Line is all the way up to 13.5. Thinking about a middle if it goes past 14? Or do you still see value on Florida that high?
Totals (Last week was the first pretty average to below week for this, but some of the extreme numbers still came through) CMU @ KSU 19.6 Van @ UF 20.2 Army @ AFA 24.5 Mich @ Iowa 24 aTm @ OU 23.6 LSU @ Alabama 19.6 Ore @ UW 25.1 ASU @ UCLA 23.7 Stan @ Ore St 23.5 Missouri @ Baylor 25.3 Hou @ UAB 25.1 New Mex @ SDSU 23.6 Ark St @ FAU 19.8 last week for this...looks like it's regressing to mean.
It's Boomer Sooner. OU plays it when they are losing and when they gain 3+ yards. There is not a worse song than that one and it's 2 words.
Ohhh, thought it'd be texas tech's b/c of how it sounded like a cavalry charge sort of. Anyway, it looks like the Chargers, particularly Rivers, didn't do any off-season passing work like most other teams did. Kind of odd seeing McNeill look so bad at Left Tackle last night too. It's like the team is still 2-3 weeks behind everyone else in the league as far as where they should be at given the lockout. If anything they're lucky that Jason Campbell broke his collarbone and is done for the year, otherwise they'd have no chance of winning their division.
moreso on FLA, up to 15 on my book. i took over 55 on arizona/UVLA, over 73.5 on UH, and under 46.5 on FLA Atl/Ark St, all based on method above.
there's maybe 3 of those that I don't think would hit the over, army-air force (just b/c the option offense eat up so much clock), houston-uab (because it's so high), and missouri-baylor (same reason, seeing the over at 73.5 now).not sure if they'd hit the totals either, but the oregon & stanford ones should since they need impressive wins to help with BCS standings.
yeah, I don't recommend anyone just playing them blind. it's just something that has seen consistent success for about 5 weeks...last week being the first loser.
Don't think Denver-Oakland could be an easy Under pickup? For some reason, seeing that at 41.5 points, and with a 16/84 split in favor of the Under, it almost looks like Vegas is getting the # based too much off of math and their early-season game at Denver, and less off who they have playing on the teams.
Looking ahead to next week...and possible public dogs I think after next week, I'm going to pack it up for the season until bowl games. I'll still have opinions and all that, just probably no bets..get out of this season while I'm up. Tuesday: NIU @ BGSU and WMU @ Toledo Wednesday: Miaoh @ Temple Thursday: Ohio @ CMU Saturday: Kentucky @ Vanderbilt Miami @ FSU Auburn @ Georgia UCLA @ Utah Nebraska @ PSU Mich @ Ill aTm @ KSU FLA @ Scar NCSU @ BC (If BC is favored, this is probably a lock to be a public road dog) SJSU @ USU TCU @ BSU LT @ Ole Miss Hawaii @ UNR Fres @ NMSU Ore @ Stan
Week 11 Nevada -9 (W; +200) Vanderbilt -12.5 (W; +100) BC +3 (W; +100) Utah -7 (W; +100) PSU u42 (W; +100) Cal 2h -3 (W; +50) Missouri +1.5 (W; +100) UTEP -3 (W; +100) New Mex St 2h +7 (W; +50) WMU +12 22 to win 20 (W; +20) WIN: +920 Braska -3 (P) Cincy -4 (L; -110) FSU -9 (L; -110) SMU -7 (L; -110) Illinois +2 (L; -110) Troy 2h -5.5 (L; -55) BGSU +180 20 to win 36 (L; -20) WMU +360 20 to win 72 (L; -20) BGSU/WMU ML parlay 12/1 40 to win 480 (L; -40) BGSU/WMU/o69/o65 46/1 10 to win 460 (L; -10) LOSS: -585 TOTAL: +345
Texas is about as high as ever this season....killing kansas st and texas tech...missouri has been underachieving all season....texas has been home for a month now going on the road...