His podcast has 14.5 million subscribers on Spotify. If 1% of them are convinced to vote for Kamala that's 145,000 votes. Not even factoring in other platforms.
Not sure what this has to do with his confidence. His confidence is not based on any facts or logic other than he thinks he gets what he wants. His confidence doesn't mean it works out for him.
Just saw some voter registration numbers for PA and it's not making me feel great about the state even though polling has mostly had Harris ahead. Dems - 3,991,381 Republicans - 3,710,290 Other - 1,460,307 Dems lost about 400,000 voter registration edge in the state since 2020. In my surroundings counties, all bad trendlines. Have to hope Dems kill it with independents. 2020 2024 Luzerne - +20,000 -2,671(-22000) Lackawanna +39,000 +27,000(-12,000) Monroe - +14,000 +7,500(-6,500) Lycoming - -22,000 -25,500(-3,500) Schuykill - -18,600 -26,000(-7,400) N'umberland -11,300 -16,000(-4700)
I do think its a good idea to do it if circumstances allowed, but that's not campaign math. How many of those 14.5m are persuadable and live in Pennsylvania, and is that more than she can reach by just going to Pennsylvania instead of Austin.
Registration trends are lagging indicators so nothing to learn And again early vote is meaningless in almost all cases. Outside of selzer poll no real polls left that matter
I'm so ready for this shit to be over. Obviously that's largely due to the foreboding fascism implications but jesus christ at the number of political ads I see on a daily basis. If I see another Dan Osborn/Deb Fischer ad or an anti-trans ad I'm gonna lose my absolute shit. It's like every 2nd or 3rd commercial is political which, honestly not something I'm used to being in a largely red state, especially for senate. The money in politics is an obscene nightmare that needs to end.
Trump is running basically exclusive anti-trans ads here in Georgia. I see probably 20+ a week and I only watch football on regular TV
Do the surrounding counties include large suburban or urban areas or mostly rural? It feels like early voting numbers suck everywhere. Polling error means Trump wins by 4? Can’t wait to find out
There was a post on NC Reddit about this yesterday, the 2020 EV numbers they are using for reference includes mail in ballots which accounted for 22% of the early 2020 vote. Whereas the 2024 EV numbers only includes mail in ballots that have been received and processed, so it’s a lagging metric that right now shows 150k absentee ballots (5% of early votes) vs the 1m (22%) that were sent in 2020. Probably why it’s hard to interpret much from early voting numbers. Republicans want to make it look like they have a lead so are using different data sets to do so.
Luzerne and Lackawanna are both rural and urban. Monroe is urban and the rest are probably all rural.
Joe sucks, but I believe he’s genuine and his reasons for having her on. She should absolutely do it.
high quality poll but too many undecideds and a good poll with too many undecideds and a mediocre poll with too many undecideds
passing on the opportunity to have the next president on your show because she won’t go to your stupid studio
I can. I know a lot of "I don't want to vote for Trump, but Harris?! I have no choice." types who are (fake) indies.
I hear it all the time. “He’s such a piece of shit, but she is going to ruin the economy and country for my kids”. They aren’t truly independent. Just want to vote for Trump, but are pretending to be independent.
Point of correction for the NC poll, Trump is +6% with men which is why it’s tied. Idk how they confused that bc in no way can she be +5 on the gender breakout and not be winning.
With Gracie Abrams, Taylor's opening act on her US tour, having a concert with Kamala in Wisconsin tomorrow, I'll be surprised if Taylor doesn't show up. They've been making a big deal out of it and have been doing a concert trip giveaway for it and Abrams and Mumford and Sons seems kinda underwhelming for that. Their tour is in Indy on Friday, so in the area.
if Taylor is showing up, they're going to publicize the shit out of it beforehand and get as many eyes as they possibly can on it.
"I am not a republican", says the racist. We've seen it on these boards in the past. People consider themselves "neutrals", yet are 100% Republican shitstains in their values.
I recently moved and had to re-register to vote. I thought maybe registering as an indy would spare me the political mailers, it appeared to work until a couple of weeks ago.
does the targeted ad stuff even work? my whole thing is not allowing yourself to vote in primaries seems like a very stupid decision to try to frame yourself as some moderate.
I really think the unaffiliated will break to Harris but more importantly registered republican women are going to vote at a higher than accounted for margin for Harris. This is where the polling is going to miss this cycle.
Maybe, we'll see. The whole sweepstakes thing just makes me think it's bigger that what they have announced.
I'm Georgia, I'm fairly certain you can vote in either primary without having to register as a party affiliate.