Major League Baseball Prospects Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by tandin, Jul 18, 2011.

  1. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    Turner missed a fair amount of bats in A ball last year, and was missing bats to start this year in AA. He's just been pushed pretty hard. I don't think he's going to lead the league in strikeouts or anything, but I don't think there's any reason he can't post something between 7.5 and 8.25 K/9 for his career in the big leagues. If you're healthy and posting the innings, that's still in the 180-200 K per season and pretty good. I think he's probably a solid #2 with the chance to be a #1 if his secondary stuff improves.

    He's not Shelby Miller, and that's fine. I just don't see any way anyone could put Matt Harvey ahead of him for any reason right now considering their ages.
     
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  2. duc15

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    But Jack Z can't draft pitching
     
  3. Owsley

    Owsley My friends call me Bear
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    Brian McCann debuted at 21 :smug:
     
  4. 49ers169

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    It is too early to say anything in regards to Reddick and the new found approach, no one knows for sure.

    That is why I say give him the rest of the year as Drew is providing nothing that Reddick can't provide for himself. Although I wouldn't be disappointed in a Beltran deal.

    However given the salary constraints the Sox are going to have to use one of them as the regular next year. They simply don't have the financial flexibility to add a major piece. They also don't have the ability to go out and trade for a cost controlled guy as the farm isn't strong enough.

    Kalish I agree and not sure he is a future All-Star but he is a good defender in right with a good arm. He has been consistent throughout his time in the minors in terms of offensive production and is a threat to steal a decent amount of bases as well. He just doesn't have the power potential that Reddick possesses.
     
  5. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    That's all relative, though. Montero was signed at age 16 and has more pro experience than those guys did. Santana switched to catcher during his pro career, if I'm not mistaken, which is what took him so long.

    I'm not saying Montero sucks or anything. He's still one of the best hitters in the minors. I just don't think he's going to catch, and from everything I've ever read on him, most organizations seem to believe the same. Doesn't mean he won't be a beast as a hitter. I do like that he's improved the BB% as he's climbed up the ranks as well. Wish the Tigers had hitters who had that in their profile.
     
  6. 49ers169

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    Him and Lavarnway for the Sox are similar in that regards.

    Everyone tries to shade things in the catcher corner but realistically it isn't going to happen.

    Lavarnway has thrown out a decent percentage and past balls haven't been a huge issue but he just doesn't have the lateral movement necessary.

    Not sure if it is the same with Montero given his frame.
     
  7. Fidelio

    Fidelio Well-Known Member
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    bench 19
    fisk 20
    berra 21
     
  8. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    I understand what you're saying. If the new approach is there to stay, Reddick's ceiling definitely moves up. At the same time, they're going to have to let him prove he's capable of hitting LHP to see if he can do it, and his minor league numbers that I've seen haven't seemed all that promising. It's tough for a team like Boston to let him go through those growing pains with the big club. They basically have a decision to make in terms of deciding whether to let him go through those growing pains, or just say "he's a platoon guy and we're going to give him a RH hitting partner out there". I think that will tell you what they think of him going into next season more than anything.
     
  9. Cornelius Suttree

    Cornelius Suttree the smallest crumb can devour us
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    Cubs promoted Ryan Flaherty to AAA in the past week or so

    played SS at Vandy for three years and has become a utility type within the Cubs organization...has played 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, and OF this season. Had a .305 AVG with .384 OBP (40 BB/55 SO) in 83 AA games with 14 HR to boot. Hopefully he keeps hitting in AAA and gets a chance to help the Cubs next year
     
  10. dblplay1212

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    You're probably right. Odds are that he won't. I'm just saying I haven't completely written it off, yet. I mean, the Yankees have had Posada for a long time and I don't think Montero could be much worse. Like I said above, maybe he can DH and platoon at C and 1b once a week or something. Either way, I expect them to find a way to get his bat into the lineup next year if he's not dealt in a package this year. All this said, I was wrong last year when I didn't like the Jackson for Granderson trade (although I don't think anyone knew Granderson would change his swing and blossom like he has), so who knows what will happen with Montero.
     
  11. 49ers169

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    Agreed there, not sure where they find that right handed bat to go along side with him though.

    I guess it all comes down to if the front office manages to believe that the new found approach is for real and give him the job next year. They let Pedroia go through the growing pains and if they believe the approach is for real, think they may say the same for Reddick.
     
  12. dblplay1212

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    haha
     
  13. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    That was still a smart move for the Yankees, because they were never going to wait around for Jackson to learn how to hit. Even if Granderson still sucked v. LHP (and I'd like to see more of it because I proclaim his issues with that done forever), it was the move they had to make.
     
  14. Fidelio

    Fidelio Well-Known Member
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    :beerchug:
     
  15. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    It's not hard to find a RH hitter who can hit LHP and play the OF twice a week. Detroit has about 8 of those guys every year. Unfortunately, they're all forced to play every day because they have no one better.
     
  16. dblplay1212

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    I was probably overvaluing Jackson. Probably overvaluing Montero now, too. I'm not a huge minor league guy like you guys are. I know the Yankees farm and that's about it outside of the really elite guys for other clubs.
     
  17. Cornelius Suttree

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    James Darnell will be coming to Nashville to face the Sounds in early August....has like four HRs in his first eight or nine games at AAA
     
  18. MG2

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    I'm not giving up on Jackson or anything either. With the right adjustments, I still think he can be at least above average in CF if he can improve the approach and contact rate while he gets bigger and adds some power. The reality, though, is he would have spent all of last season in AAA if NY hadn't moved him, and his value likely would have gone down a fair amount because he wouldn't have raked there. They moved him at the right time for a piece that fit their situation better. They played that one about as well as they could.

    I've said this for years, but the Sox and Yanks have the budgets to basically be able to use 80-90 percent of their prospects as trade pieces rather than future big leaguers for them. They're always in win now mode, and don't want to deal with the growing pains it takes for guys in that second tier to figure it out at the big league level. The Phillies are having basically the same dialogue with Dominic Brown, who needs to face LHP to learn how to hit it, but they're in the middle of a run for a title and probably don't want to go through that right now as an organization. It's why teams like the Yankees should never view guys like Ian Kennedy or Ivan Nova as "untouchable" type guys. They can find those kinds of guys on the scrap heap every year to be a #5 starter for them.
     
  19. nofatchildren - cissp

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    I was looking at some stuff earlier today, and I realized that Billy Hamilton has 69 SB's in 88 games in low A for the Reds. I love crazy shit like that. I'm rooting hard for him to get to 100.
     
  20. Dwight Schrute

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    :chatzy:

    and it's Tampa Bay FWIW.
     
  21. dblplay1212

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    You have a point. I agree that most of the prospects can be dealt, but at the same time, having a few guys like Gardner making $500k allow you to go overboard on a few other guys in FA. The Yankees/Sox don't need a ton of prospects but need a one to come up every few years that sticks. Hopefully Montero or Banuelos can be one of those guys.
     
  22. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    Agree, but Gardner is also a terrific player who can play every day. They just kind of lucked into that one IMO, but he's been one of the best LF in the league for the last few years.

    I'm not saying that those guys should never play for the Yankees, or that they should just deal them all out of principle. They have value to them if they need them. My point is more that they can find guys like Nova and Kennedy without too much trouble, so I just don't see why they talk about them in trade discussions as if they're future #1 starters.

    Everyone would love a team with a bunch of cheap players. For the Yankees and the way they do business, it's just not all that realistic to actually pull that kind of thing off.
     
  23. nofatchildren - cissp

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    Or a guaranteed guy like Ubaldo Jiminez making 4 million next year with two cheap club options? That's why it's not a big deal if the Yankees sold the farm for him. They'd be saving plenty of money there, and they know what they are getting.
     
  24. cal

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    wish cowart pick was 3 years earlier and he was locking down 3rd right now
     
  25. tandin

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    jonah keri had a piece with a similar to to this post a couple weeks ago. basically, in season call ups for teams that are in pennant races are almost never the right answer because almost everyone has an adjustment phase.

    teams like the red sox and yankees should always be investing in prospects, but always be looking to move them for valuable big league pieces as well.
     
  26. tandin

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    exactly. that deal is nuts. almost longoria levels bad.
     
  27. SC

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    Braves promote SS Tyler Pastornicky to AAA. Could be the SS of the future for Atlanta.
     
  28. Fancy

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    ANTHONY RENDON!!!!
     
  29. nofatchildren - cissp

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    I have no idea where to post this, but this thread probably has the best crowd for it...

    What do you guys think of Fangraphs finally adopting SIERA (skill interactive ERA)? After being unveiled a year ago, it has shown to be an accurate improvement on FIP. I'm assuming it will take over as the pitcher portion of WAR. Anyway, they are having a 5 part write-up on it, and part 2 came out today.

    The problem is inevitably going to be that SIERA is far more complicated than FIP (which is always a problem when trying to explain what it is), but it is pretty cool that it takes all of this stuff into account (which FIP obviously didn't):

    • The new run environment.
    • Pitchers with more strikeouts have a lower HR/FB ratio.
    • When low-walk pitchers give up a walk, it doesn’t hurt them as often.
    • Pitchers with more strikeouts have lower BABIPs.
    • Pitchers with more strikeouts get more ground balls in double-play situations.
    • Relief pitchers have lower BABIPs and HR/FB.
    • The more base runners a pitcher allows, the higher the percentage of them will score.
    • The more walks and singles that a pitcher allows, the more often a ground ball will induce a double-play.
    • Ground balls become hits more often than fly balls.
    • The more ground balls a pitcher allows, the easier they are to field.
    • Pitchers who have higher fly ball rates allow fewer home runs per fly ball.


    So yeah...much more comprehensive. Also, impossible to explain to somebody unfamiliar with the subject matter. FIP will still be useful for situations where you need to explain things in less detail though.
     
  30. tandin

    tandin Guest

    I don't know that much about SIERA and I'd like to see what the adjustments are before I say too much, but the two I made bold I have a problem with adjusting or saying someone is better because of.

    Some of it seems so intuitive. I was waiting for all 5 to be done before I really took a look at it.
     
  31. nofatchildren - cissp

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    Yeah, I mean, I don't really have a handle on it yet either (just like everyone else). I think the theory behind the first one is that low walk pitchers can control when they give up walks better. Glavine had a 15% walk rate with first base open and a 6% walk rate in other situations. Granted, he was an extreme example. These are really small coefficients we are talking about here though. Single adjustments aren't going to affect most guys significantly.

    The reliever one isn't much different than FIP. If you are comparing reliever FIP or ERA against starter FIP or ERA, you are doing it wrong anyway (which I think is accounted for in relievers replacement adjustments for WAR, but that's not something I know off the top of my head).

    And of course, I could be wrong about them implementing it into WAR too. I don't know enough about it yet to know.
     
  32. tandin

    tandin Guest

    yeah, I just need to know the theories better.

    I mean, I trust that they are trying to get at the right things, but some of them seem less than perfect as I look at them.
     
  33. SC

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    Didn't realize SIERRA was on fangraphs now. Always has just been on B-Pro.
     
  34. SC

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    Altuve up to the bigs.
     
  35. The Goat

    The Goat Well-Known Member
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    Fucking ESPN doesn't have him in the player pool. Can't wait to see him taking AB's.
     
  36. nofatchildren - cissp

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    Yeah, the fangraphs version is a little different (improved, updated), but the main concepts are the same. It was only invented about a year ago I think, and FG usually makes sure everything is pretty air tight before they adopt it.
     
  37. tandin

    tandin Guest

    nofatchix:

    Reader: Will SIERA replace FIP in WAR model?

    Dave Cameron: No. SIERA, like xFIP, is more hypothetical and based on being predictive. WAR is a descriptive stat of what happened. You don't want to be trying to measure a player's past value with a metric that uses an expected HR rate rather than his actual HR rate.
     
  38. nofatchildren - cissp

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    Note on the random SIERA thing I posted. It won't be implemented into WAR. It is more similar to xFIP in that it is a predictive stat, than it is to a performance stat like FIP (which is what needs to be used for WAR). That part was confusing to me when it was first unveiled, as I had thought they were trying to make an improvement to FIP with SIERA. So, that kind of makes me happy. Would have made things far more confusing (which is why I was asking about it here in the first place).

    Now I will quit derailing the thread.
     
  39. tandin

    tandin Guest

    those were the theory based questions I had with it.
     
  40. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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  41. SOM

    SOM Well-Known Member

    Miller, Martinez, Jenkins :smug:
     
  42. BearlyHere

    BearlyHere Is this thing on?
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    altuve was called up by the astros yesterday after trading keppinger to the giants. called it in the futures game thread boom
     
  43. The Goat

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    M's agree to sign Victor Sanchez who is considered the best IFA pitching prospect this year.
     
  44. duc15

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    Nice
     
  45. The Great Pumpkin

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    I wonder if Darvish will finally be posted this offseason?
     
  46. 49ers169

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    Could be but don't think many teams will splash a lot of cash at him if he is posted.
     
  47. tandin

    tandin Guest

    Have you read anything on his market if her were to?
     
  48. Gritty Badger

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    Phillies go "significantly" over slot to sign 11th rd pick, SS Tyler Greene, ranked #83 by BA, who had a strong commitment to UGA.

    Phillies desperately need legit prospects in the infield so good move by them.

    Bonus thought to be between 500k and 1 million.
     
  49. The Great Pumpkin

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    Matt Moore makes his debut in AAA tonight. The game should be MiLB.com.