MLB betting - Fibonacci sequence

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by comrade static, Apr 11, 2017.

  1. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    FSUsem brought the Fibonacci sequence betting style to the board a few years ago, IIRC. so, if i describe this incorrectly, please correct me.

    sequence is this: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, etc. to get the next number, you basically add the first two before it. 1+2=3, 2+3=5, etc.

    with normal -110 juice, you need to win at least 53% of the time in order to be in the black and win money (assuming you bet the same amount for each bet). by betting using the Fibonacci sequence, it allows you to to be somewhere in the 40% range in order to win money. I can't remember the exact number, i was thinking around 45%, but I could be wrong on that.

    for simple purposes, i'll use $10 as your base number. you keep working the chain until you win 2 out of the last 3 of your bets.

    your first bet will be $10 (base). your second bet will be $20, no matter of a win or loss on the $10 bet. If you win your $10 bet and win the $20 bet, then the chain ends and you will then start a new 10 and 20 chain. if you lose $10 bet, but win the $20, your next bet you will reduce your bet back down to $10. if you win that bet, chain ends. if you lose, you move back up to 20. if you lose that bet, next bet will increase to 30.

    if you lose 8 bets in a row, the chain ends and you should possibly think about stopping betting altogether.

    i've never really bet on MLB before. i don't have time to follow it enough to know who/what to bet on. what I've been doing is picking 3 teams and stricly betting the under on each game. This is a very limited sample size; therefore, i'm treading lightly since i'm testing this out.

    I don't have any logic or reason to pick unders vs overs. I feel that being as consistent as possible is key during this test phase and will help eliminate the possibility of me losing 5 or 6 in a row on a fairly often basis.

    in one week of bets, i'm up around 8 base units.

    tl;dr

    pick a few teams and exclusively bet unders on their games. use Fibonacci sequence for your betting amounts. profit?
     
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  2. TheGodfather

    TheGodfather Half man, half amazing
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    Florida State SeminolesChicago CubsChicago BearsGame of ThronesMiami Heat2pac

    How's this model holding up?
     
  3. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    My overall record, including open chains, is 16-9, so that helps.

    I'm up 15.52 base units since I started.

    If I was betting the same amount each game, I would only be up 6.5 base units, assuming -105 juice for each game. The juice has varied between -120 and +105, so -105 is a better than fair average. Obviously -110 juice or higher average would make my winnings worse than 6.5 units for the same base unit bet per game.

    If you'd like, I can type up a few sample chains that I have experienced, just let me know.
     
  4. Mookie Blaylock

    Mookie Blaylock Well-Known Member
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    Auburn TigersOakland A's

    Are you using the same three teams all the time or switching when a chain ends?
     
  5. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    Each team has its own chain. When the chain ends for that team I begin a new one betting only that team within the chain.
     
  6. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    In two weeks, I'm up an avg of 8 base units.

    I don't expect 8 units per week to continue, so to be conservative, if I'm able to average winning 4 base units per week, that would put me up 80 units from May-Sept.
     
  7. mb711

    mb711 West Coast Barner
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    Auburn TigersGolden State WarriorsSan Francisco 49'ersSan Jose Sharks

    Post your plays before the games
     
  8. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    I'm not sure why you need me to do this. The three teams I'm using are the Dodgers, A's, and Nationals. I'm taking the under in every single game they play.

    The A's line was U8, -122 and Nats was U8, -115. Nats won, A's didn't. Dodgers were off. Whatever the lines are today, I'll take the under.
     
  9. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    1-1-1 on the day. No chains completed.

    This is probably dumb, but I've been drinking and I like where this is going so I'm going to add two teams to the list. Royals and O's. So I'll have 5 chains going at all times instead of 3. I think my bankroll can handle the increase of potential larger sized bets when I lose a few in a row.
     
  10. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    You are still just betting unders? How did you pick which teams to do this for?
     
  11. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    Yep. Strictly betting unders.

    Picked teams at random for the most part. Didn't want to pick teams in same division to help eliminate more times where they would play each other, which would reduce number of games bet
     
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  12. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    Weekly update:

    Record on closed chains: 25-14, +28.17 base units.

    Record including open chains: 27-18, +22.56 base units.

    If I was betting same $ amount for each game, with -105 juice, I would only be up 8.1 units

    I've yet to have a team go on a bad losing streak. It will happen at some point. All of the records of the chains have been at .500 or better. At some point I'll have a 2-4 record, or worse. I'll update that individually when it happens.
     
  13. steamengine

    steamengine I don’t want to press one for English!
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    LiverpoolTexas Tech Red Raiders altTravelHouston Oilers

    Did you just choose to go with unders for your system? Is that at the discretion of the degenerate? Could I choose to pick my three teams to be on the right side of the number every game and still run the system?
     
  14. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    I chose unders because I figured early on pitching would be ahead of hitting.

    You could choose overs. In fact, after thinking about it, you could switch back and forth, just not within the same chain. If you start with overs, bet overs until you've won two out of last three to complete the chain.

    You could chose team X +\- 1.5 if you wanted instead of the over/under. I prefer the over/under because the juice is more likely to stay in the -120 to +105 range.

    The key is consistency for whatever option you choose to bet on.
     
  15. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    Finally getting around to an update.

    Overall record of closed chains: 52-53 with a profit of 38.58 base units.

    I've had a couple of sweaty chains lately, with one of them losing money. Had a chain that went 4-7 with Dodgers, but came out +2.73 units.

    For reference/example, my losing chain with Oakland went like this:
    10 - loss
    20 - win
    10 - loss
    20 - loss
    30 - loss
    50 - loss
    80 - loss
    130 - loss
    210 - loss
    340 - win
    210 - loss
    340 - win

    3-9 record with a loss of -12.52 units

    Pretty happy with overall results.

    Anyone trying this out? Lots of time to hop on board.
     
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  16. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners


    Bueller....?


    Do I need to continue updates?
     
  17. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    I'm not rolling it but still following the updates out of curiosity
     
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  18. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    Ok. I'll try and do another update later tonight or over the weekend. To preface, I'm still making money.
     
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  19. Goose

    Goose Hi
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    Ohio State BuckeyesCincinnati BearcatsCincinnati RedsCincinnati BengalsTiger WoodsFC CincinnatiBarAndGrill

    On my way to Vegas right now someone give me bets
     
  20. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    I've now migrated all 5 teams to overs. I also added betting the grand salami run total and home/away runs.

    Overall record of closed chains is 73-70. Profit is +55.63

    I have 30 closed chains so far. Only one of those chains has been a losing chain, which I referenced in a post above. Least profitable chain has been +0.75 units.
     
  21. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    With these results over the past month and a half, why hasn't anyone hopped on board and tried this out? Just curious.
     
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  22. meadow

    meadow Master of Whispers - Team Penske
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    Pittsburgh PenguinsMemphis GrizzliesPenn State Nittany LionsTiger WoodsPittsburgh SteelersArsenal

    I'm hopping on today. Have a bit of a bankroll so I'm going with 6 chains.

    Royals Under
    Brewers Over
    Pirates Under
    Yankees Over
    Giants Under
    Orioles Under

    So you can blame me when things go to shit.
     
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  23. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
    Donor
    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    Welcome to the party. The beauty of this system is that it won't go to shit. It is technically possible, but incredibly unlikely.

    Just remember to bet the same side until you complete the chain.

    BOL.
     
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  24. Houndster

    Houndster $25 Standard Unit
    Staff Donor

    I'm going to start next week when I get back from my trip. Was waiting to get my computer setup so I can track results more easily through Excel.
     
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  25. meadow

    meadow Master of Whispers - Team Penske
    Donor
    Pittsburgh PenguinsMemphis GrizzliesPenn State Nittany LionsTiger WoodsPittsburgh SteelersArsenal

    What do I do if 2 chains meet? For example I have Yankees Over chain and Royals under chain and they play each other. Just stay away until they don't play each other?
     
  26. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
    Donor
    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    I had this happen when I was migrating all of my teams to overs. I just chose one side and bet it each game.

    This is why you ideally want to bet the same side with every team.
     
  27. Houndster

    Houndster $25 Standard Unit
    Staff Donor

    Placed my first bet for four different chains: STL, MIA, SEA, & KC betting the unders on all of them.

    What do you if a game pushes? I'm assuming bet the same amount of the bet that pushed. Interested to see how this works out comrade static
     
  28. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    Yes, if bet pushes or is cancelled, you just re-bet same amount next day.
     
  29. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
    Donor
    Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma Sooners

    2 months in update:

    45 chains completed.
    +71.29 units
    104-105 record
    4 total losing chains with units lost at -12.52, -3.35, -0.20, and -0.05 units.
     
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  30. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    Just to clarify using $10:

    The shortest a sequence can be is 2 games for +$30
    A sequence ending after 3 is +18 or +19
     
    #31 LeVar Burton, Jul 10, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2017
  31. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    Nice! All four of those won. A $10 chain for each of those resulted in $100
     
    #32 LeVar Burton, Jul 10, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2017
  32. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    If you did $10 to start each chain I've got you 6-0 and +$113.

    Longest chain was 6 games.
     
  33. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    Average length of chain is 4.5?
     
  34. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    At this point I'm just choosing random teams, O/U, and a date and assuming all games are -110.
     
  35. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    My fibernachi experiment is off to a slow start.

    July 14
    KCR Over
    NYY Over
    ATL Over

    1-8-1
     
  36. Icculus is a Bammer

    Icculus is a Bammer marco esquandolas took my job
    Donor
    New Orleans PelicansNew Orleans SaintsDC United


    Id like to see a few sample chains as to gain a better understanding of how the betting sequence works
     
  37. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    Pick a random date, pick a random team, pick a side O/U. Totals are normally at -115

    Play $10 and $20 for your first two plays every time. Then with a win at the $20 game go back to $10 if the $20 loses then $30.

    I started after the all star break and tracked this thing very closely.

    I took NYY Over, ATL Over, and KC Over. Their the 3 teams I watch the most and overs are more fun to pull for then unders. In 15 days I'm up $67.10

    NYY Over has completed 2 chains with a W-L of 4-9 -$40
    KC Over has completed 3 chains with a W-L of 6-9 +$16
    ATL Over has completed 4 chains with a W-L of 9-5 +$102.7

    Odds are better you'll win 2 out of 3 than lose 9 in a row and if you lose 9 in a row you should stop betting. 10,20,30,50,80,130,210,340,550....$1420 is a lot to lose.

    The first chain I started with was NYY Over and it pushed the first game and then 8 unders in a row. I looked up a lot into this thing and couldn't find a loser anywhere and I be damn if right out the gate I didn't have one that went right to the brink. :can:
     
  38. SoCalDuck

    SoCalDuck sleep late, its much easier on your constitution
    Donor

    Think this betting theory would work for NCAA FB?
     
  39. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    Should.
     
  40. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    I'm going to cut my MLB chains off with so few games remaining. I had NYY, KC, and ATL overs. W-L-P record of 76-93-5 finished up +$550 after wagering $9,500 so +5%. Of the 173 bets, 20 of them were greater than $125. Six chains ended up losing money and 29 chains were profitable.

    # of completed chains and $$$ by each team:
    NYY: 10 +$175
    KCR: 14 +$130
    ATL: 11 +$240
     
    #41 LeVar Burton, Sep 25, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2017
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  41. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    Betting on the Tribe +148 to move on to the ALCS.
     
  42. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
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    Clemson TigersCarolina Panthers