my thread

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by Alshon, Aug 31, 2011.

  1. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    It's my first football season on tmb, so figured I'd throw my picks out there. All plays are 1 unit plays, I don't mess around with all the 5* plays. A line is either worth my money or is not. I don't buy hooks as I think they are a waste of money. No parlays, and only teasers in the NFL. First couple of weeks are usually tough. Only play a few games a week. Fade / follow at your own risk.

    cfb week 1:

    Kentucky -19.5
    I know UK loses a ton on offense, but their offensive line should still be a strong unit this year. 4 out of the 5 starters from last year are back. The new starter will be a senior who started a few games last year. They were a decent bunch last year and I think they'll be even better this year. Morgan Newton has some experience for a first year starter, and the coaches seem to be big on him. The run game will be fine in this one as they go up against WKU's weak run defense. Not worried about them putting up enough points to cover. On defense they bring back 10 guys from a sub par group last year. New defensive coordinator Rick Minter (hired in December) has a solid track record, and I think he'll improve this veteran group. WKU stud Bobby Rainey ran all over them last year, but I don't think he'll sneak up on them this year. WKU has a decent number of guys coming back, but they aren't quite on UK's level.

    UK usually takes care of their early season cupcakes. In the last 4 years, they are 5-1 ATS against early season cupcakes (including a -35 cover vs WKU last year). WKU has lost 5 straight openers against BCS schools by an average of 39 ppg. UK should win by at least 3-4 TDs, somewhere in the 42-21 range is my guess.

    Michigan -13.5
    Michigan will move the ball this game. New scheme, but I don't see last year's 8th best offense falling off that much. Question is on the other side of the ball, where they were pitiful last year. They do bring back 7 guys and have a new DC. Like Kentucky I think they should improve. WMU has lost 16 straight road openers vs BCS schools by an average of 24 ppg. I think this line is a little low because of the new coaching staff. Not much of a write up for this one, but Michigan should win this game by at least 2 TDs.

    I am considering adding Boise and LSU, but we'll see how the line moves.
     
  2. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
    Donor
    Alabama Crimson TideNew England Patriots

    Nice writeup for UK. I may have to give that game a second look
     
  3. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAustin FC

    :respek:

    I think going back to a 4-3 from that weak westvirginia 3-3-5 (or was it 4-2-5) will help.
     
  4. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    It was the 3-3-5 iirc. That doesn't exactly match up well against big ten power football.
     
  5. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    kentucky line dropped 3 points since i placed that bet. kind of concerned.
     
  6. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    Uk Stunk it up, Michigan is in good position currently. Added LSU +4 and bosie ml
     
  7. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    Fucking Michigan called the game because of lightening, bet was pushed.
     
  8. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAustin FC

    If texas -23 and Boise -140 cover I'll be up a lot of money. 9-0 so far since thursday. Got WV -20.5 in the last game in a parlay that had michigan and the bet got cut in half bc they called Mich a push. Real fucking gay we were covering by 24. Fuck vegas. Oh well UGA looking like trash. Like I said their offense is a shit show. 80 yard boykin all they have done in 3 quarters. Crowell is not an all-sec back. They will struggle to score all game. Aaron murray is not a world beater either. Didn't buy into the preseason hype. I'd honestly take mccarron over murray right now
     
  9. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    2-1, +.6 units on the year

    Futures:
    Scar to win the east at +150 and
    Stanford over 9 EV

    Looks like you're off to a good start since texas covered. Mich was abouut to blow it open, pisses me off but whatever. Didn't get to see the Georgia game since ours was on at the same time, but I'm not really surprised they had trouble moving the ball. They are in a lot of trouble if they lose next week. Bodes well for my future bet.
     
  10. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    Games I'm looking at:

    Oregon -27: Oregon is a completely different animal at home, and they will be out for blood after last week. Nevada had an extra week to prepare, but they will be breaking in a new QB at Autzen. Rough place for a first time starter. Nevada also loses a ton of offensive production from last year.

    ECU +19.5: ECU is not a joke, and their offense is tough to prepare for in one week. They had Vtech on the ropes last year, but Vtech scored 28 unanswered points to avoid going 0-3

    Bama -10: If Penn State's offense struggled against Indiana State last week...

    Northern Illinois -5, Scar ML, Air Force +2 getting looks as well.
     
  11. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    NFL play for week 1:

    Teaser: Raiders +9, Pitt +8.5 (ties lose)
     
  12. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    Week 2 plays (so far)

    Oregon -26.5: As I mentioned before, Oregon is a completely different team at home. Thomas threw 50+ times last game, and I think they'll get back into their run offense at home. Nevada lost way too much from last year's offense to keep this one close. They also haven't been a strong road team as a dog (or even that strong on the road SU), while Oregon has been the opposite as a home favorite. Oregon is out for blood and they will get back on track with a big win here.

    ECU +20: Laying -20 on the road against a very good mid major is very risky. ECU's passing attack is no joke. Vtech lost half of their starting secondary from last year, which does not bode well for them. ECU's defense is always a concern, but I think they'll bring their A game in their home opener against a big time school. They were also without their 2 time all CUSA cornerback last week. His return should help the defense. This is also Logan Thomas' first start on the road as well. ECU had Vtech on the ropes last year, until tech scored 28 unanswered points to avoid going 0-3.

    Backing off Bama and NIU, waiting for movements on the AF and South Carolina game.
     
  13. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
    Donor
    Alabama Crimson TideNew England Patriots

    you like the Gamecocks this week? I'm leaning under but can't make myself pick a side in that one
     
  14. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    I think we have a very good chance of beating them SU. UGA hasn't done all that well as a home dog or as a dog to Carolina under Richt. I'm pretty confident we have the better te, but it's not going to be easy walking into Athens with Richt's situation and come out with a win.

    I'll place a unit on our ML and enjoy my trip.
     
  15. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAustin FC

    UGA is a sinking ship. They can't even get Branden Smith and Crowell on the field at the same time because neither of those nignogs will wear a different number. I tried to tell the bulldogs on TMB they were starting off 0-2 and they said I was "making rivals posts"
     
  16. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
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    South Carolina Gamecocks

    I feel the same way but it's impossible to feel certain in this matchup as a gamecock.
     
  17. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    Added South Carolina ML and AF -1
     
  18. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
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    South Carolina Gamecocks

    3-1 yesterday, 5-2 overall +2.25 for the year
     
  19. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAustin FC

    11-2 saturday. made a decent profit these first 2 weeks. feel like it's been relatively easy... not a good thing.
     
  20. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
    Donor TMB OG

    where are your picks posted, i can't find them
     
  21. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAustin FC

    Most of them are in the week 2 thread

    oregon, stanford, wisconsin, florida, south carolina, nd/mich over, tennessee, washington, Iowa (only posted loser in 2 weeks i believe)

    didn't post a couple winners / 1 loser = kansas, sandiegostate

    Edit: apologies only posted oregon, stanford, wisconsin and south carolina (4-0) that I could find on the gambling board. Was almost certain nd/mich, tenn, wash, iowa (3-1) was on there also.
     
  22. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
    Donor TMB OG

    no worries...just didnt see them
     
  23. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    Congrats. I don't like making that many plays but it seems to be working for you. Who do you like so far? I'm looking into:

    Vandy +1
    LSU -3 or ML
    Boise -19
    Auburn +3.5
    Arky -24
     
  24. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAustin FC

    auburn lsu cincy i know i'm playing. wisconsin waiting on 1st half + and probably the over. only ones I've really looked at. is vandy good this year or something? saw that uconn score saturday
     
  25. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
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    South Carolina Gamecocks

    Vandy always seems to give Ole Miss fits, no matter how worthless they usually are. Kinda like they do to us.

    Not sure who ole miss is to give points to a SEC team on the road.
     
  26. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    Vandy +2

    I was really surprised to see Vandy as a dog. I thought they'd be favored by a field goal or so. They seemed to have improved a lot this year, especially in their run defense. I think they'll shut down a poor Ole Miss offense. Said it before, I'm not sure who Ole Miss is to be favored on the road against a SEC team. Even bad Vandy usually kept it close with Ole Miss- I think they'll win SU but I'll take the +2 for insurance.

    LSU -3

    Not much to say here. Short week for Miss State off a tough loss on the road. I'll take LSU's depth on the short week. State still has to prove they can hang with the big dogs. Think LSU's defense slows them down enough.

    Edit:

    Added Auburn +3 EV

    Auburn will be able to move the ball on the ground. Auburn has also been a lot more tested this year. Clemson was not dominate against the two cupcakes they played. Think AU has a huge coaching advantage which will be the difference.
     
  27. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    2-1 last week, 7-3 overall +3.25 units
     
  28. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
    Donor
    South Carolina Gamecocks

    Utah State -9.5

    USU will control the running game in this game. Colorado State won't be able to slow down their rush offense or keep up on offense.