NBA Thread: Embiid is Him

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by hood b. goode, Jun 17, 2022.

  1. mc415

    mc415 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    California Golden BearsSan Francisco GiantsGolden State WarriorsSan Francisco 49'ersSan Jose SharksEvertonSan Jose EarthquakesSan Jose State SpartansUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamSneakers

    Huh? He played in 2 finals and won a ring close to 40 years old making millions, yeah sounds fucking awful……when bitterness makes you have stupid hot takes
     
    visa, Xander Crews, Beeds07 and 3 others like this.
  2. joey jo-jo jr shabadoo

    joey jo-jo jr shabadoo you know for me, the action is the juice

    yeah iggy definitely owed a lot to a franchise that literally only acquired him to eventually trade him
     
  3. Bay Bandit

    Bay Bandit Cabral Univirsity
    Donor TMB OG
    Colorado BuffaloesSan Francisco GiantsGolden State WarriorsOakland RaidersNewcastle United

    From my standpoint, it felt like the difficulty level of defending was:

    1. Jokic
    2. Luka
    3. Morant
    4. Tatum

    Tatum was the best defender of the bunch though, and the guys above him are killers.
     
    clemsonvianj, Dump, NCHusker and 2 others like this.
  4. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
    Donor

    Yeah, I don't really get the purpose of that one. No one ever thought Tatum was as good as Luka offensively, and Dallas is specifically built for Luka to put up LeBron numbers no matter how well he plays.
     
    Imurhuckleberry likes this.
  5. Fusiontegra

    Fusiontegra My life is dope and I do dope shit.#SparedByThanos
    Donor TMB OG
    Florida GatorsMiami MarlinsJacksonville JaguarsSporting Kansas CityAvengersMiami HeatSneakersWu-tang

    Its entirely based on the media’a handling of Tatum through these playoffs. No one was saying Luka by name but Tatum kept getting mentioned as passing up guys like KD at an individual level.

    Which is fucking bonkers.
     
  6. Celemo

    Celemo Meatball's dad
    Donor
    Michigan WolverinesPortland Trail BlazersOregon State Beavers alt

    Remember that time Tatum had a couple of assists and the media was acting like he was Magic Johnson?
     
    Tobias, Xander Crews, brolift and 8 others like this.
  7. ZeroPointZero

    ZeroPointZero RIP #24
    TMB OG
    Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles LakersLos Angeles RamsTiger WoodsSouthern California Trojans

    because the Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe's of the world carried so much water for Danny Ainge, if Tatum isn't a top 5 superstar type their takes won't age well. One Finals run entirely on injury luck isn't enough to spike the football over at all
     
    steamengine likes this.
  8. BudKilmer

    BudKilmer Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Atlanta HawksAtlanta FalconsAvengers

    :magatears:
     
  9. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
    Donor

    They mentioned him passing up Durant because Boston swept the Nets and Tatum ate his lunch in that series.

    The media and fans on here and social media overreact to everything that happens in the playoffs. There are a ton of examples this year, from Jokic, Durant, Embiid, Paul, Booker, Butler, Tatum, Luka, Curry, etc. It's the way it works. Tatum is just seeing it on both ends now that he couldn't shoot in the Finals.
     
    visa, Dump, $P1 and 2 others like this.
  10. Imurhuckleberry

    Imurhuckleberry Avid spectator of windmill warriors
    Donor
    Florida GatorsSan Francisco GiantsGolden State WarriorsSan Francisco 49'ers

    Post Memphis he’s played in the finals twice and collected another ring. I think the Memphis dynasty’s high point was, let me check my notes, getting bounced in the prelims a couple times right?
     
    Dump and mc415 like this.
  11. beerleagueman

    beerleagueman Well-Known Member

    this and I think there is somewhat of a blind spot w basketball media and how they view/report foreign born players

    but I think Giannis and Jokic dealt w this more than Luka. some finally changed their Giannis takes with how he played all year after the championship
     
    #111 beerleagueman, Jun 18, 2022
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2022
  12. Mister Me Too

    Mister Me Too Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Florida State SeminolesNew York MetsNew York KnicksNew York Jets

    The media was definitely saying Luka by name, NBA radio spent about an entire day arguing whether Luka is more like Magic or LeBron.
     
  13. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
    Donor

    Giannis and Jokic have combined to win the last 4 MVPs, so I don't think the foreign thing is that big of a deal anymore. I think the problem with those two is people judge basketball players in the playoffs based on how many points they score (especially in the 4th quarter), and those two guys aren't natural scorers. Giannis isn't a shooter and Jokic has had to work really hard to get his game to where he's consistently scoring 25+ points every night the last two years.

    I think Luka is treated differently than those two because he's a perimeter player who has the ball all the time and has been averaging 28 a night since year two.
     
    ZeroPointZero, Dump and beerleagueman like this.
  14. GrizzliesDrew

    GrizzliesDrew Fuck Freeze
    Donor TMB OG
    Auburn TigersMemphis Grizzlies

    PLAYED in the finals? I guess I did too.
     
  15. mc415

    mc415 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    California Golden BearsSan Francisco GiantsGolden State WarriorsSan Francisco 49'ersSan Jose SharksEvertonSan Jose EarthquakesSan Jose State SpartansUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamSneakers

    ur white ass didnt do shit ever in ur life in sports
     
    Tobias, soulfly, brolift and 7 others like this.
  16. Imurhuckleberry

    Imurhuckleberry Avid spectator of windmill warriors
    Donor
    Florida GatorsSan Francisco GiantsGolden State WarriorsSan Francisco 49'ers

    Shit, even the team he roots for has never, ever even sniffed the finals.
     
    mc415 likes this.
  17. mc415

    mc415 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    California Golden BearsSan Francisco GiantsGolden State WarriorsSan Francisco 49'ersSan Jose SharksEvertonSan Jose EarthquakesSan Jose State SpartansUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamSneakers

    everytime we play those fucking scrubs we win the series, small time franchise fits in with a small time city
     
  18. bertwing

    bertwing check out the nametag grandma
    Staff Donor
    Arkansas RazorbacksNew Orleans SaintsTiger WoodsBarAndGrillPoker

    He’d smoke you in sumo wrestling though
     
    mc415 likes this.
  19. GrizzliesDrew

    GrizzliesDrew Fuck Freeze
    Donor TMB OG
    Auburn TigersMemphis Grizzlies

    I played an equal amount of NBA Finals minutes as Iggy in 2022…which you’re bragging about for some idiotic reason.

    Just like NBA champion, James Wiseman. Imagine bragging about this. :loldog:



    DEBA4BCD-E069-408F-8DF4-8AE0D2AF5257.jpeg
     
  20. beerleagueman

    beerleagueman Well-Known Member

    you got 4 minutes in Game 5?
     
    Tobias, Tug, Xander Crews and 5 others like this.
  21. GrizzliesDrew

    GrizzliesDrew Fuck Freeze
    Donor TMB OG
    Auburn TigersMemphis Grizzlies

    Oh, did he actually get garbage time in? Go off, champ!
     
  22. laxjoe

    laxjoe Well-Known Member
    Donor
    San Diego Padres

    No you didn’t.
    6132923F-903B-4A38-8328-EA73127BB35F.png

    And that was just game 6
     
    Tobias, Red Rover, Dump and 5 others like this.
  23. mc415

    mc415 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    California Golden BearsSan Francisco GiantsGolden State WarriorsSan Francisco 49'ersSan Jose SharksEvertonSan Jose EarthquakesSan Jose State SpartansUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamSneakers

    BudKilmer likes this.
  24. GrizzliesDrew

    GrizzliesDrew Fuck Freeze
    Donor TMB OG
    Auburn TigersMemphis Grizzlies

    I haven’t done much in the NBA. Neither did Iggy once the Warriors dumped his ass. Then let him crawl back to sit on the bench.

    By the way, you sound like a fucking moron. “WHAT HAVE YOU DONE IN THE NBA, huh?” Look, I get comparing me to Iggy is better than comparing him to an actual NBA player, but shit. Do better.
     
  25. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
    Donor

    This convo reads like the sports message board version of the BNL bit on Community.

    I'm waiting for the part where someone brings up Iguodala's two Billboard awards to audrew's zero.
     
    42yard, Tobias, clemsonvianj and 17 others like this.
  26. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

  27. GrizzliesDrew

    GrizzliesDrew Fuck Freeze
    Donor TMB OG
    Auburn TigersMemphis Grizzlies

    What do you know about spicy? How many League of Fire championships do YOU have?
     
  28. mc415

    mc415 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    California Golden BearsSan Francisco GiantsGolden State WarriorsSan Francisco 49'ersSan Jose SharksEvertonSan Jose EarthquakesSan Jose State SpartansUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamSneakers

    Im Mexican homie, spicy is in my blood…..and soft ass white boys talking shit about successful people of color because we dont do what the white man wants us to do ain’t in my blood
     
    brolift likes this.
  29. CF3234

    CF3234 Fan of: Bandwagons
    Donor TMB OG
    Miami HurricanesMiami MarlinsMiami DolphinsFlorida PanthersTiger WoodsInter Miami CFGame of ThronesMiami Heat

    Well hello there.
     
    mc415 likes this.
  30. Imurhuckleberry

    Imurhuckleberry Avid spectator of windmill warriors
    Donor
    Florida GatorsSan Francisco GiantsGolden State WarriorsSan Francisco 49'ers

    So you’re almost right. Like one of the people in the conversation sounds like a fucking moron. Problem is that it’s you. It’s always you. Iggy has more finals minutes this year than your entire franchise in its history. He has more playoff wins than your franchise in its entire history.
     
    Bankz, Beeds07, Dump and 3 others like this.
  31. Corch

    Corch I wanna talk to Sampson
    Donor
    Ohio State BuckeyesDenver NuggetsCleveland CavaliersCleveland Indians

    I think the only way to solve this is to thread ban audrew and all Warriors fans.
     
    42yard, Tobias, poor paul and 10 others like this.
  32. Mister Me Too

    Mister Me Too Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Florida State SeminolesNew York MetsNew York KnicksNew York Jets

  33. Fusiontegra

    Fusiontegra My life is dope and I do dope shit.#SparedByThanos
    Donor TMB OG
    Florida GatorsMiami MarlinsJacksonville JaguarsSporting Kansas CityAvengersMiami HeatSneakersWu-tang

    [​IMG]
     
    42yard, Tobias, clemsonvianj and 11 others like this.
  34. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Placeholder for a Custom Title
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    Auburn TigersLos Angeles LakersLos Angeles RamsAnaheim DucksManchester UnitedLos Angeles Angels of Anaheim

    Now that the Finals are over, is this the thread that the #Auburn Tigers can shit post in when Jabari is the first pick?

     
    Chipper>Jeter, AubCabs, Goose and 6 others like this.
  35. GrizzliesDrew

    GrizzliesDrew Fuck Freeze
    Donor TMB OG
    Auburn TigersMemphis Grizzlies

    Why are you only talking about his Finals MINUTES?
     
  36. Andy Reocho

    Andy Reocho Please don't get lost in the sauce
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    Kansas JayhawksKansas City RoyalsKansas City ChiefsNewcastle UnitedBig 8 ConferenceFormula 1

    Yikes drew. Maybe you should take the day, it’s still early.
     
  37. LuPoor

    LuPoor Revenge bedtime procrastinator
    Donor
    Tulsa Golden HurricaneOklahoma City ThunderSeattle Kraken

    The Warriors clearly don't need any more titles. Winning one is now so boring for their fans that their immediate reaction is not to celebrate, but to go fuck up a message board thread by shitting on other posters.
     
  38. Andy Reocho

    Andy Reocho Please don't get lost in the sauce
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    Kansas JayhawksKansas City RoyalsKansas City ChiefsNewcastle UnitedBig 8 ConferenceFormula 1

    I saw this gem on Twitter

     
  39. Beeds07

    Beeds07 Bitch, it's Saturday
    Donor
    Notre Dame Fighting IrishSt. Louis CardinalsIndianapolis ColtsSt. Louis Blues

    This is a bad page for all parties involved.
     
  40. RSK

    RSK Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Rutgers Scarlet KnightsBrooklyn NetsBaltimore RavensNew Jersey DevilsManchester United

    Nets : we need you to coach this team to a championship
    Steve Nash :
     
  41. beerleagueman

    beerleagueman Well-Known Member

    Miami for a few seasons then back w one of his good friends to finish his career , not a bad way to go out if this is it for Iggy
     
    Dump, mb711 and mc415 like this.
  42. NCHusker

    NCHusker We named our yam Pam. It rhymed.
    Donor TMB OG
    Nebraska CornhuskersChicago CubsDenver NuggetsKansas City ChiefsAvengersUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamUSA BasketballBig 8 ConferenceBig Ten ConferenceNebraska Cornhuskers alt

    Nuggets fans also hate Iguodala fun fact
     
    ZeroPointZero, Dump, brolift and 3 others like this.
  43. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
    Donor

    You guys hate everyone, though
     
    42yard, Tobias, bertwing and 10 others like this.
  44. NCHusker

    NCHusker We named our yam Pam. It rhymed.
    Donor TMB OG
    Nebraska CornhuskersChicago CubsDenver NuggetsKansas City ChiefsAvengersUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamUSA BasketballBig 8 ConferenceBig Ten ConferenceNebraska Cornhuskers alt

    Iguodala is in the top two or three very easily
     
  45. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
    Donor

    John Hollinger's top 25 FAs, for those interested in basketball related topics heading into the offseason. Some bold choices and whatnot. This is not a good FA group.

    Tier I: The Max All-Stars
    1. Kyrie Irving, PG, Brooklyn (player option): $48,497,568

    BORD$ doesn’t have to deal with Irving in the locker room, but despite his intermittent availability over the past two seasons, he still rates as a hugely valuable player. Irving can opt out of his current deal that pays him $36.9 million next season and become a free agent, where his maximum salary for next season would be $42.7 million.

    Irving will turn 31 next season, so the out years on a four- or five-year deal for his max don’t rate out as profitable, but in the short term, the numbers say he’d be likely to justify a max deal. Even in his limited time in 2021-22, he averaged 27 points a game with 59 percent true shooting … and it wasn’t a particularly good year by his standards.

    The other piece of this, of course, is what options Irving has besides the Nets. With the cap-room teams mostly rebuilding and not really needing a point guard, and some other teams turned off by the assorted sideshows that accompanied his presence in Boston and Brooklyn, the Nets might be able to negotiate something short of the five-year, $245 million deal he’d be eligible to receive.

    2. James Harden, SG, Philadelphia (player option): $46,617,283

    Harden has a player option for $47.4 million next season, and despite his losing a step and not being the MVP-caliber force he was in Houston, the numbers suggest he’d still likely produce roughly enough to justify the money. If he opts out, he can re-sign a new deal starting at a maximum of $46.5 million.

    Things get tricky, however, when we look into longer time horizons. Harden turns 33 in August; clearly, maxing out for the full five years he’s eligible seems nuts. (That would be a $270 million payout, by the way.) One wonders how much the Sixers would be willing to commit here, and for how many years.

    As with Irving above, there is also a limited market for Harden outside Philadelphia. He might be tempted to just opt in for this season and try again for a big payday next summer, when there are far more potential cap-room teams as landing sites. Alternatively, signing a longer deal at less than max money would go a long way toward smoothing out Philly’s luxury-tax concerns.

    3. Bradley Beal, SG, Washington (player option): $38,520,130

    Beal isn’t quite as valuable as the two players above, and if he opts out and signs a five-year max, it will be a whopper: a $42.7 million starting salary and a total of $242 million for a half-decade. While teams have been watching the nation’s capital for smoke signals of Beal’s displeasure, everything has long seemed on track for him to take the bag and stay in D.C.

    Beal turns 29 in June, so in terms of age, we’re not in the danger zone, but the tail end of a five-year deal could still turn south on the Wizards; they just saw this movie with John Wall, too. As a result, one wonders if they could retain Beal with only a partially guaranteed fifth year or some other concession, which would still leave Washington ahead of the four years and $179 million any other team can offer.

    4. Zach LaVine, SG, Chicago: $31,716,188

    LaVine played the second half of this season on one leg prior to his left knee surgery in May, and as a result, this valuation likely came in a bit lower than you might have expected. On the other hand, the knee issue is something every team will want to do their due diligence on; you’ll recall that LaVine tore the ACL in the same knee in 2017.

    LaVine is eligible for a five-year, $212 million deal from the Bulls that starts at $36.6 million for this coming season, which isn’t too far off his BORD$ value. At age 27, a new contract would theoretically cover his prime years as well … provided the knee isn’t an issue. As with Beal above, one wonders if the Bulls can whittle away some at the fifth-year guarantee, knowing their final offer would still top any other, but it’s a tricky game to play since teams like San Antonio or Detroit could have the ability to ink LaVine to a four-year, $164 million deal.

    Tier II: The Not-Quite-Max Guys
    This is where free agency really starts: The three young players from the 2018 draft who between them have not made a single All-Star Game but could combine to make several in the near future. I’m not sure any of the three are worth the full max, but all have BORD$ values close enough to the “low” max ($30.5 million) to make it an interesting debate. Additionally, at least one of the three appears to be much more gettable than the four All-Stars above:

    5. Deandre Ayton, C, Phoenix (restricted): $31,406,061

    Phoenix surprisingly didn’t extend Ayton before last season and seems reluctant to pay him the max after the Suns fizzled in the playoffs. Sign-and-trading him instead could also help the Suns skip the luxury tax, both in 2022-23 and the two seasons that follow, while the idea of getting some added size at the forward spots is much more possible if Ayton is the trade bait.

    As a result, the chatter is increasing that Ayton may indeed be available, in particular, if a sign-and-trade scenario develops that lets Phoenix bring back talent. (A straight offer sheet would likely just be matched by the Suns, who could always turn around and trade Ayton later; they really have no outs if Ayton leaves uncompensated.) One note on a sign-and-trade: Phoenix can only bring back about $20 million in salary on an Ayton sign-and-trade, even if he is paid the max, because of the so-called Base-Year Compensation rule. (The CBA stopped referring to it this way, but most folks in the league still do.)

    As to the question of how much he’s worth: Even in my valuation system that devalues centers pretty strongly, the numbers suggest Ayton is worth the bite of the apple. My eye test also suspects he could be a more impactful scorer someplace else, with a pretty deadly midrange game for a player of his size. Finally, Ayton will be 24 next season, so this contract should cover some of his best seasons. Going long on a deal for him could produce additional value if he keeps improving.

    6. Miles Bridges, PF, Charlotte (restricted): $30,940,550

    Bridges is a fascinating study this offseason because BORD$ says he’s worth pretty close to the max, but it seems unlikely his price will get quite that high due to his restricted status and the apparent lack of other suitors.

    Even potential offer-sheet spoilers like San Antonio or Detroit seem to have their eyes more focused on other targets; they could return to Bridges later in the process, but having their money on ice while Charlotte waits to match (and then likely inevitably does) is a pretty significant deterrent … especially in a market where free agency has played out with remarkable (some would even say “unfathomable” given the rules) speed.

    Where that leads is likely a four- or five-year deal to return to Charlotte in the $25 million a year range, give or take a few drachmae. If so, the Hornets will have some interesting decisions to make further down the roster as they try to skirt the luxury tax.

    7. Jalen Brunson, PG, Dallas: $29,371,294

    Brunson’s strong playoff run for the Mavericks seemingly silenced some of the chatter that A) Dallas might be willing to let him walk, and B) another team could get him for well below the max. Now it seems like any serious offer would have to be for at least $100 million over the next four years, somewhat limiting the potential suitors given the greater difficulty of meeting that threshold in a sign-and-trade. (If you’re wondering about the Knicks, for instance, they’d have to dangle a lot of not terribly desirable filler in front of the Mavs to get a deal done. Good luck with that.)

    As a small guard coming off a career year, this BORD$ valuation is likely at the high end of where the league sees Brunson, but he should be able to get into the $25 million a year range.

    The more interesting question is what this might do for Dallas’ plans. Increasing his salary from last year’s paltry $1.8 million to such a princely sum will also put the Mavs about $30 million over the luxury-tax line and produce a whopping $85 million check to the league. Something’s gotta give here.

    Tier III: The Weirdos
    There’s a giant dip in the quality of the free-agent market after the seventh-ranked Brunson; a staggering drop of nearly $10 million BORD$ value between Nos. 7 and 8. Furthermore, the next three highest-ranked players are unlikely to get paid the values that my method assigned to them.

    In each case, the issue is that BORD$ loves these guys while NBA teams … like them OK. Each of them is just quirky enough to not fit neatly into standard team-building definitions, requiring a bit more finesse from coaching staffs to maximize their contributions.

    And yet … the numbers say each of these three was quite valuable and will likely represent a win when they inevitably sign for less than these numbers.

    8. Chris Boucher, C, Toronto: $19,782,672

    One of the Raptors’ several weird kind-of-big guys off the bench who toggled between hazily defined positions, Boucher is a difficult player to define, and that may limit his free-agent market. He’s a top-notch shot blocker but undersized for the middle at just 200 pounds. He’s a sort-of floor spacer with a 33.5 percent career mark from 3 but is more comfortable doing his damage in the paint, where he shoots 58.6 percent for his career. He’s not a threat to post up due to his skinny frame, and he’s not a threat to pass ever.

    And yet … Boucher is 29 years old, has a career PER of 20.0, had the best net rating of any player on a 48-win team and despite his thin frame had a massively positive impact on the Raptors’ rebounding in particular.

    Is that package worth paying as a starter? That’s where a lot of teams would hesitate, I suspect, and that’s why I think Boucher’s market settles in at or just above the non-taxpayer MLE despite BORD$ giving him a much higher valuation.

    9. Bruce Brown, SF, Brooklyn, $19,043,654

    Brown is an “-and-D” guy with the “3” part mostly missing, but that doesn’t make him a zero on offense. He’s a good passer and excels playing out of the short roll as a fake five, plus he’s a solid finisher who has converted nearly 70 percent of his chances at the rim the last two seasons. He’s also only 25 and shot 40.4 percent on his limited 3-point attempts a year ago, offering the promise of further upside.

    Brown was a free agent last year and had to settle for re-signing for the $4.7 million qualifying offer, indicating that the market doesn’t value him the way BORD$ does. Nonetheless, he should be a top target for any team with the non-taxpayer MLE.

    10. Kyle Anderson, PF, Memphis, $18,990,342

    This number will likely surprise people who have seen Anderson’s role fluctuate throughout his career, including just 21 minutes a game this season in Memphis. However, the numbers say he’s been extremely effective whenever he’s played, especially on defense, where his size and fast hands make him a plus across multiple positions. (Full disclosure: I was in the Grizzlies’ front office when Anderson signed his four-year, $37 million offer sheet that is now expiring.)

    As with Brown above, Slo-Mo isn’t everybody’s cup of tea because he doesn’t fit in with preconceived ideas about role players who stand in the corner. He’s a 33 percent career shooter from distance and needs nearly the entire shot clock to load up his delivery. He’s much more effective playing on the ball, playing in transition or slashing to the cup in random offense, and it feels like each of his coaches has needed an adjustment period to figure out what the heck to do with him.

    That said, Anderson is a near-point-guard-caliber ballhandler who also instantly improves any defense he joins and is a solid rebounder at either end. I think he’ll end up a bargain on the midlevel deal he’s likely getting; just to max out the funkiness, I’d love to see him end up in Toronto in a lineup of nothing but 6-9 guys.

    TIER IV: The Centers
    Valuing non-All-Star big men in the current NBA has become more art than science, with value hinging heavily on roster composition and the eye of the beholder. Two players in particular, however, are likely to get paid as starting centers.

    11. Mitchell Robinson, C, New York (restricted): $18,862,212

    Robinson supported the idea of paying him like a starting five by staying in the lineup for 72 games last season; the 7-footer also is in the rare position of being an unrestricted free agent at just 24 years old. His athleticism is such that he shoots 72.2 percent for his career and has blocked 7.7 percent of opponent shots in that time, making him an ideal candidate for the shot-blocker/rim-runner role.

    So what’s the hold-up? There’s some concern that Robinson has bulked up too much (playing last year at 270 pounds) and that it’s taken away some of the bounciness that had been his best attribute. Additionally, with no skill level or shooting range to speak of, Robinson can be a very limited option offensively, with last season’s 11.4 percent usage rate serving as a prime example.

    Overall, I’ll take the under on his BORD$ estimate, even with the upside of his age, but I do think he settles into a deal not too far below this amount annually.

    12. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Portland: $17,414,518

    In theory, there are cap-room scenarios where the Blazers let Nurkic walk to have the space to chase other players. In reality, Portland’s best play by far would be to re-sign Nurkic at a number in the mid-teens and use its other cap options (including a huge trade exception) to rebuild the team this offseason.

    Nurkic seems mostly recovered from a devastating leg injury two years ago and was just rounding into form last winter when the Blazers’ season went off the rails. He turns 28 in August and has consistently put up mid-tier starting center numbers, so this one doesn’t feel particularly risky either. The only real question is whether another team tries to get involved in the bidding and nab him away from Portland, and how high that number would have to go to be successful.

    Special interlude: The guys who won’t be free agents
    In the process of generating BORD$ values for the players who will be free agents this summer, I also generated them for all the players who won’t be free agents … including a few who in theory could come on the market this summer. In reality, you have better odds of seeing Sasquatch than any of these five players in free agency:

    • Russell Westbrook, PG, Lakers: $17,347,955 — Westbrook has a player option that he could use to opt out of his final year at $47 million. Tough call, huh? While it’s possible he could be traded and then waived by his new team, by far the most likely outcome at this point is his return to L.A.
    • Al Horford, C, Boston: $16,679,111 — Remember earlier this year when we were discussing whether Boston would pick up its partial guarantee on Horford next year? That was fun. As a result of Boston winning the East, $19.5 million of next year’s $26.5 million is now guaranteed anyway; it becomes a full guarantee if the Celtics beat Golden State in the finals.
    • Josh Hart, SG, Portland: $16,485,487 — Hart’s $12 million deal for 2022-23 is non-guaranteed, and Portland does have some cap-room scenarios if it lets him go, but even in that scenario, it is much more likely he is traded rather than actually released. (He’d also be fairly likely to be claimed on waivers even if he were cut.)
    • Jae’Sean Tate, PF, Houston: $13,343,341 — BORD$ seems to love defensive role players (see Brown and Anderson above) more than the market does, but there is no scenario where Houston bails on paying Tate his paltry $1.78 million team option for the coming season. The bigger question is whether to extend him and at what price.
    • Ivica Zubac, C, Clippers: $10,680,330 — The Clippers have a $7.5 million team option on Zubac for next year and no realistic means of replacing him in the middle if they let him go, especially since backup Isaiah Hartenstein may be skipping town.
    TIER V: The above-MLE guys
    These players have shown themselves to be worth more than the non-taxpayer MLE of roughly $10 million for the coming season, but whether they actually get it is an open question given the dynamics of the market:

    13. Otto Porter Jr., SF, Golden State: $16,603,510

    Porter Jr. won’t command this high a salary in real life because of concerns about his frequent injuries. In the last four seasons, he’s missed nearly as many games (140) as he’s played (162), and even in his “healthy” year for Golden State in 2021-22, he only played 63 regular-season games.

    On the other hand, a credible defender at the two forward spots who knows how to play and shoots 39.8 percent career from 3 should have considerable value, especially since he’s still only 29.

    While I don’t expect anybody to roll the dice on a longer deal given the continued questions about his physical well-being, a “one+one” type contract for the non-taxpayer MLE — signing him for 2022-23 with a player option for 2023-24 — would be a smart move for a contender below the tax line.

    14. Malik Monk, SG, Lakers: $16,511,722

    Surprised? Don’t be. Monk is one of the few entries on the brief list entitled, “Things the Lakers did right in the summer of 2021.” A year later, he is one of the rare free agents who is both young and unrestricted; he’s only 24. He also comes off consecutive years where he shot 40.1 percent and 39.1 percent from 3, and last season he was far more efficient inside the arc (56.8 percent on 2s!) than he’d ever been before.

    That said, one can fairly wonder if this BORD$ valuation is influenced a little too heavily by Monk’s sterling on-off differential for the Lakers last season. Monk is undersized for a two, can’t play point and, although he improved last year, still struggles on defense. All of that is perhaps a reason to keep an MLE lid on his free-agent offers. But in a league increasingly tilted toward offense, he’s one of the real sleepers in free agency, especially since there may be further scoring upside to tap.

    15. Bobby Portis, C, Milwaukee, (player option): $15,793,989

    Bob-by! Bob-by! The crowd favorite re-signed for a fraction of his worth a year ago and surely will decline his $4.56 million player option to secure a bigger payday this time around. With Milwaukee having early Bird rights, the Bucks can offer him roughly $12 million a year on a multi-year deal, and I’m not sure the bidding goes higher than that given the paucity of cap-room teams this year.

    16. Donte DiVincenzo, SG, Sacramento, (restricted): $15,551,549

    DiVincenzo is a good bet to get paid something close to what he’s worth given the sunk cost involved in the Kings’ trading for him in the first place, and the fact Sacramento has full Bird rights to go over the MLE.

    As a 25-year-old guard who may be able to ramp up his usage on a lesser team than the Bucks (where he played until his midseason trade in 2022), he seems like a good upside play if he can just straighten out his shooting a bit. The only potential fly in the ointment would be if the Kings take Jaden Ivey with the fourth pick in the draft, crowding the backcourt and potentially pushing DiVincenzo to the side.

    Second interlude: The injury guys
    These four players will be free agents this summer and have BORD$ valuations at or above the midlevel. However, my formula doesn’t know they suffered serious injuries that likely will knock down their valuations considerably:

    • Danny Green, SG, Philadelphia: $15,490,585 — Green has a non-guaranteed deal for $10 million and almost certainly will be waived by the Sixers after tearing his ACL in the playoffs. He’s likely to miss most or all of the coming season, so I would not expect much of a push to sign him in free agency.
    • Ricky Rubio, PG, Indiana: $15,475,962 — Rubio didn’t play a game for the Pacers last year; he was traded there by Cleveland after tearing his left ACL in late December. While he’ll likely return at some point this coming season, he turns 32 this fall, and it’s his second ACL tear in the same knee.
    • Joe Ingles, SF, Portland: $14,873,104 — Similar to Rubio above, Jose English didn’t play a game for the Blazers but was sent there by Utah after tearing his ACL in late January. Ingles also turns 35 in October.
    • T.J. Warren, PF, Indiana: $9,439,768 — Warren has only played four games in the last two years because of a stress fracture in his left foot and a recovery that moved at a snail’s pace, but he has legit value if he’s back at full strength. Teams likely will be doing their due diligence on his recovery and discounting accordingly.
    TIER VI: The rest of the MLE-and-above pack
    A couple of these players will likely get offers in the mid-teens, especially the younger cohort. The rest, however, profile more as veterans who would be worthwhile pursuits on a short deal for the full MLE but become more questionable propositions at higher prices.

    17. Montrezl Harrell, C, Charlotte: $14,730,416

    Harrell was awesome in the first several weeks of 2021-22 for Washington but gradually fell out of favor, in large part because he’s such a suspect defender. That same concern would likely prevent any team from paying him as a starter, which is why I think his contact again settles in at the full non-taxpayer MLE for a team looking for a bench boost. Harrell has been down this road before: His last two forays into free agency also resulted in short-term deals for the full MLE.

    18. Delon Wright, PG/SG, Atlanta: $14,546,800

    Wright’s market isn’t likely to go nearly this high; he got the full MLE when he was a free agent four years ago and seems likely to face a similar market this time around at age 30. Offensive limitations, especially as an off-ball 3-point shooter, put a cap on his value for most teams despite another year of sparkling analytics.

    Wright didn’t always play major minutes for Atlanta this season but was one of the Hawks’ most effective players, in particular at the defensive end. On a one- or two-year deal at the MLE, he looks like a solid Plan B for teams that whiff on the top-tier guards in free agency, with his ability to moonlight as a shooting guard at 6-5 adding to his value.

    19. Tyus Jones, PG, Memphis: $13,791,316

    Jones is one of the most fascinating free-agent cases this summer. The Grizzlies have ample cap resources to retain him if they wish, but Jones may be more intrigued by an opportunity to be a full-time starter rather than Ja Morant’s understudy. Certainly, places such as New York or Washington could offer him a starting gig, but those clubs are limited to offering the full MLE. Jones could get more by re-upping with the Griz or by his involvement in a sign-and-trade.

    Jones is undersized and hadn’t shot consistently from deep until this season (39.0 percent from 3), but he is an elite game manager at the point, has one of the best floater games in basketball and, at 26, a multi-year deal would likely give his next team the best years of his career.

    20. Nicolas Batum, SF, Clippers (player option): $13,734,340

    Batum has been one of the league’s most valuable contracts since the Hornets cast him away two years ago, a low-volume, multi-positional glue guy limited only by his profound reluctance to shoot. He’s shot over 40 percent from 3 in back-to-back seasons, however, so the threat of his shot still keeps defenses honest.

    With a player option for a paltry $3.3 million, it’s a no-brainer for Batum to opt out of his deal. One likely endgame is that he would re-up with the Clippers, who now have early Bird rights on him, for the maximum they can offer (approximately $12 million in 2022-23), which would put his salary reasonably close to the above valuation.

    21. Kevon Looney, C, Golden State: $12,533,705

    I did a double-take when I first saw Looney’s projected value. Then the playoffs started.

    With proof of concept as one of the league’s best switchable bigs, not to mention as an inhaler of rebounds, Looney has proven he’s worthy of being paid as a third big and sometimes starter. He also answered questions about his recurring health issues by appearing in all 82 regular-season games this season.

    Looney still has offensive limitations that will prevent him from getting the big bucks — he’s a non-threat in the post and limited from the perimeter. (Although he would let it rip at UCLA, that hasn’t been part of his pro identity.) With Golden State’s free-flowing cash spigot, the Warriors are likely to lock him up for a couple more years as their sometimes-center.

    22. Cody Martin, SG, Charlotte, (restricted): $12,366,850

    Birds of a feather with Brown and Anderson above, Martin is another oddball who is unlikely to get paid as much as BORD$ thinks he’s worth because of questions about his offense.

    That said, he did a lot to answer those questions in 2021-22, hitting 38.4 percent of his 3s (albeit on low volume) while continuing to be one of the Hornets’ best (only?) defenders. He excels in transition, and while you wouldn’t call him a true 3-and-D guy given the low shot volume, he’s not that far away from getting there.

    Charlotte has luxury-tax concerns that could leave it vulnerable to a rival bid for Martin, especially if the Hornets also pay Bridges and guarantee Kelly Oubre’s deal. However, in real life, I don’t see Martin’s price getting above the MLE, and it could end up considerably less if teams don’t believe the shooting numbers from this season.

    23. Anfernee Simons, PG, Portland (restricted): $11,467,484

    This might be a bit lower than some expect for Simons after his offensive exploits when Damian Lillard was out of the lineup. In 30 games as a starter, Simons averaged 22.0 points per game on 60.0 percent true shooting; given that he will only be 23 this summer, it seems like this elevator is still going up too.

    BORD$ balances that production against the fact that Simons is still pretty limited as a distributor, and more importantly, that he has rated his entire career as a destructively bad defensive player. Perhaps that latter issue improves; Simons is young, and at 6-3 with decent athleticism, one would think he can level up to something approaching average.

    It seems a foregone conclusion that Portland will re-sign him and the only question is the price, which I’m guessing will come in quite a bit higher than the BORD$ value reflected.

    24. Pat Connaughton, SG, Milwaukee (player option): $11,408,836

    Connaughton is likely a fairly straightforward case, as he is all but certain to opt out of his final year at $5.7 million and re-sign for something in this price range. The Bucks will have full Bird rights and should be able to keep him if they’re interested (and can stomach the luxury-tax hit for him and Portis), especially since rival bids are unlikely to exceed the non-taxpayer MLE.

    25. Collin Sexton, SG, Cleveland (restricted): $10,816,788

    Welcome to the most interesting free-agent conversation of the summer. Sexton is a restricted free agent in Cleveland and is young enough (23) to be of great interest to rebuilding teams that have cap room. He also is a proven scorer who averages 20.0 points a game and is shooting 37.8 percent from 3 for his career.

    And yet … Sexton’s valuation here barely pops above the midlevel exception because of his other, glaring weaknesses. Offensively, his scoring exploits haven’t translated into outsized team results because of his fairly severe limitations as a passer; also, while he scores at a high rate, the accompanying career true shooting percentage of 55.0 is pretty unremarkable. Defensively, he’s … just not very good. Most advanced analytics register him as among the league’s worst; not quite on par with Simons or Trae Young but not too far away either.

    All this makes it seem like Sexton would be an ideal sixth man in a Jamal Crawford/Jordan Clarkson type of role and makes a case for paying him accordingly in the low to mid-teens. But that would be a step back from the current perception of what he is. I’m fascinated to see where this ends up.
     
    Sportfan, Dump and NCHusker like this.
  46. joey jo-jo jr shabadoo

    joey jo-jo jr shabadoo you know for me, the action is the juice

     
    42yard, visa, The Walrus and 22 others like this.
  47. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
    Donor

    Hollinger also did a position by position breakdown of basically every FA based on his system or whatever. The one that I disagreed with most was he has Nic Claxton as the 12th-best center available and worth just under $3M per season. That's behind guys like Plumlee, Drummond and Hartenstein. Maybe I'm just a sucker for the athleticism, but I'm a fan and would be in favor of paying him a lot more than that and hoping Brooklyn wouldn't match.
     
    Tug likes this.
  48. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
    Donor

    Laker rumors are the best rumors.



     
    laxjoe, Beeds07, Dump and 2 others like this.
  49. TC

    TC Peter, 53, from Toxteth
    Donor
    South Carolina GamecocksCarolina PanthersCarolina Hurricanes

    Iguodala on the 76ers as The New AI was already sick