NFL Divisional Previews

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by TLAU, Aug 15, 2012.

  1. TLAU

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    NFL preview: AFC East Pats' division to lose

    The East is the NFL Beast when it comes to conference championship game appearances this new millennium.

    NFL East division teams lead the charge with a combined total of 16 games played in conference title tilts since 2000, including a league high six championship game appearances games by squads located in the AFC East, it speaks to the strength of this group.

    Like turn signals on an automobile, coaches and ownership are major indicators when determining which direction teams in this division are often headed.

    Leading the charge is Mr. Personality himself, Bill Belichick and his New England Patriots. While his persona is creepy, his manhandling of AFC East division foes that are off back-to-back losses is downright sinister, going 22-3 SU and 21-4 ATS in his NFL career in these affairs.

    The Jets managed to win 24 games in Rex Ryan’s first two years at the helm. That total was severed to eight last season as they spent the holidays at home for the first time in Ryan’s tenure. They will need to sweeten a sour 1-7 SU and ATS mark in games off a double-digit loss under Ryan should they look to gain their winning ways.

    Meanwhile, Miami treads on under owner Stephen Ross as the Dolphins are a dismal 9-15 SU and ATS in games at Sun Life Stadium since Ross became majority owner of the squad in 2009. As a result Tony Sparano was dispatched in favor of Joe Philbin as Miami’s new head coach.

    And then there’s Buffalo, a team that has enjoyed only one winning season since 1999. Chan Gailey’s 10-22 straight up win-loss record with the Bills put him on the hot seat in 2012.

    When it comes to deciding which road to travel with this division, it would serve you well to remember this powerful stat from our database: Since 2000, the AFC East division’s 159-107-5 ATS mark away from home in games versus sub .667 opposition, including a sterling 18-5 ATS record in this role when taking eight or more points.

    Note: Team writeups by this author were excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

    BUFFALO BILLS

    Team Theme: WANNA TASTE

    A defense that has declined each of the last three years – and allowed a league-high 5,938 yards last season – got the message and took major steps to rectify the situation this offseason. New defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt was brought in to orchestrate a makeover.

    It started with the signing of pass rushers Mario Williams (Texans) and Mark Anderson (Patriots) and continued with four defensive player selections in the first five rounds of this year’s draft. Additionally, continued improvement from DL Marcell Dareus, the No. 3 overall pick in last year’s draft, is also being anticipated.

    With the offense making huge strides in yards gained and points scored under head coach Chan Gailey, retaining WR Stevie Johnson was critical to its success. None of it works, however, unless the offense finds a way to better protect Ryan Fitzpatrick, the human piñata playing quarterback.

    It’s been 12 years since the Bills last had a taste of playoff water, the longest dry spell in the NFL. With the positive offseason moves, fans are drinking the Kool-Aid in Buffalo this year.

    PLAY ON: at New York Jets (9/9)

    Stat You Will Like: The Bills own four divisional wins the last four seasons.

    IN THE STATS: The Bills allowed more than 400 yards in half their games last season.

    MIAMI DOLPHINS

    Team Theme: SHUFFLE THE DECK AND DEAL

    To understand the importance Don Shula and Dan Marino had on this franchise, mull this over: since Shula retired in 1995 and Marino in 1999, the Dolphins have had eight head coaches and 16 different starting quarterbacks, while going 1-3 SU and ATS in four playoff games.

    The latest coach is Joe Philbin, most recently OC with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The newest quarterback is (take your choice) David Garrard, Matt Moore and/or Ryan Tannehill. Philbin’s new offensive coordinator is Mike Sherman, former head coach with the Packers from 2000-05, and most recently Texas A&M where he worked with Tannehill. The backfield features Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas and rookie speedster Lamar Miller from Miami.

    On the defensive front, former coordinator Mike Nolan headed off to Atlanta, with Kevin Coyle replacing Nolan’s 3-4 defense with a 4-3. While it’s doubtful Philbin and Tannehill will ever be mentioned in the same breath with Shula and Marino, those are the cards this team has been dealt. Go Fish.

    PLAY ON: at Cincinnati (10/7)

    Stat You Will Like: The Dolphins host only one team this year that made the playoffs last season.

    IN THE STATS: The Dolphins are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.

    NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

    Team Theme: EASY DOES IT

    Last year the Patriots advanced to their fifth Super Bowl in 12 seasons under Bill Belichick (thanks to QB Tom Brady’s 5,235 passing yards) and they came within a whisker of hoisting the trophy despite a defense that was as bad as the offense was good. The Pats are rewarded with the softest schedule of all teams this season with 2012’s foes going 116-140 (.452) overall last season.

    Better news is the return of OC Josh McDaniels, who will be reunited once again with Brady where together they were last seen constructing an NFL record 18-win season in 2007. He’ll work with Pro Bowl WR Wes Welker, record-setting TE Rob Gronkowski and fellow TE Aaron Hernandez. Add newly acquired free agent WR’s Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney, and the Pats own as lethal a passing attack as the league will allow.
    PLAY ON: at Miami (12/2)

    Stat You Will Like: Tom Brady is 11-1 SU and ATS as an underdog off a loss in his NFL career.

    IN THE STATS: The Pats allowed season-high, or second-high, yards to six opponents last season.

    NEW YORK JETS

    Team Theme: NO HARD KNOCKS

    After reaching the AFC title game each of the previous two seasons, the Jets were home for the holidays last year. That’s not to say they weren’t in position to attempt the hat-trick as they were the wild-card leader with three weeks remaining in the season before a 0-3 collapse sealed their fate.

    A big part of the cave-in was a sharp decline in the passing game - QB Mark Sanchez, in particular. Further complicating matters was the decline (38 YPG) of the ground game as opponents generated more rushing attempts than the Jets last year.

    FYI: Rex Ryan’s teams had 189 and 126 more rushing attempts than the opponent in his first two years with the team. Rex recognized the deficiencies and immediately acquired the services of backup Broncos QB Tim Tebow the day after Peyton Manning tied the knot with Denver. It wasn’t a knock on Sanchez, winked Ryan. Instead, it was the opportunity to address glaring weaknesses and iron out dissension among the ranks.

    It remains to be seen whether Sanchez or Tebow becomes the big apple, but much like when Adam took the first bite, nothing was the much the same thereafter.

    PLAY ON: at Miami (9/23)

    Stat You Will Like: The Jets allowed 127 more points last season than they did in Ryan’s first year with the team.

    IN THE STATS: The Jets held five foes to season-low, or second-low, yards last season.
     
  2. TLAU

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    Bob Christ's pro football preview, the NFC North
    July 31, 2012 by Bob Christ


    EDITOR’S NOTE: This is the third of eight Tuesday NFL previews examining the eight divisions. Today, the NFC North.

    The North could well be the most dominant division in the National Football Conference this season and land two wild cards for the first time since 2001, when Tampa Bay was part of a five-team mix then known as the Central Division.

    Last season, the division flexed its muscle with Green Bay and Detroit reaching the postseason. But Chicago faded after losing QB Jay Cutler for the final six games (thumb). Later, RB Matt Forte went down with a knee injury. A predictable nose dive ensued.

    Fueling the hopes of teams in the North this season is that they will be facing squads from the AFC South. That group was a cumulative a 12 games under .500, the worst of any division. Plus, the Packers, Bears and Lions again will get to gorge twice on the Minnesota Vikings.

    However, each of the teams is in need of a defensive boost. Tthe North was the only division that sported four teams in the bottom half of the chart in yards yielded. In fact, the Packers gave up more yards per game (411.6) than any team the past 28 years yet still had the best record in team history at 15-1.

    Here is a look at how the division looks to play out, with teams listed in order of predicted finish.

    Green Bay Packers

    How bad was the defense last season? Well, Green Bay had the league’s third-ranked offense, yet it was still outgained in 10 of 16 regular-season games. But, just like powerful New England, which had the next-to-worst defense, Green Bay grabbed college defenders with its first six draft picks and is putting special emphasis on this unit.

    It’s not like the defense has been helpless. The Packers tied for the league high with 38 takeaways last year and had four scores off interceptions. Offensively, Aaron Rodgers has one of the most talented receiving corps in the league and will be getting back healthy RB in James Starks.

    The key is for a re-worked offensive line to keep Rodgers from taking a beating. Last season, he set a league record for best passer rating (122.5) with 45 TD’s and only six interceptions. As if the Packers didn’t have enough going for them, they also have the league’s second easiest schedule based on last year’s records of their foes (120-136).

    Green Bay has three games against teams coming off Monday Night outings and playing on short rest, which ties for a league high.

    Perhaps that’s why GB is the morning-line favorite in each of its 16 games.

    Chicago Bears

    Chicago was 7-3 and on a five-game winning streak when Cutler was sidelined. Backup QB Caleb Hanie promptly steered the Bears into the ground with four straight losses, effectively ending their year.

    In response, this offseason the Bears signed QB Jason Campbell, a former starter for Washington and Oakland. That’s a significant upgrade in passer insurance.

    Chicago also has back a healthy and happy Forte, who recently signed a $32 million contract. Plus, ex-Raiders super-sub RB Michael Bush is on board to share the load. That’s another big-time upgrade.

    Not to mention the addition of one of Cutler’s all-time favorite targets, WR Brandon Marshall, an ex-Bronco who came over from Miami.

    But unless an offensive line that’s allowed a league-high 140 sacks the past three seasons shows improvement, it could be another empty season. At least with the departure of coordinator Mike Martz, Cutler should have more of a fighting chance since he won’t be making seven-step drops so often.

    Defensively, Chicago added first-round draft pick DE Shea McClellin out of Boise State to complement Julius Peppers on the other side. And with star LBs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, the Bears look formidable enough to throw a scare into the Packers.

    Detroit Lions

    Detroit was 10-6 last season, gaining the last wild card thanks in part to overcoming deficits of 24, 20 and 17 points in three victories. The other league teams combined had only seven comeback wins from 17-plus points down.

    Helping create those comebacks was the Lions’ No. 5-rated offense that was led by the pass-catch combo of Matthew Stafford and 6-foot-5 Calvin Johnson, which teamed for 96 completions, 16 TD’s and 17.3 yards a connection.

    It’s too bad Detroit had only the league’s No. 29 running game, which suffered immensely with the Week 6 loss of shifty RB Jahvid Best, who reportedly suffered two concussions last season and one a year earlier. His breakaway 88-yard TD run against the Bears last year exhibited the team’s capabilities when all hands are on deck. He’s hoping to be cleared soon for contact work.

    Defensively, the unit can’t help but improve after its historic second-half meltdown. Through nine games, Detroit allowed only 318 yards a game. In its next eight, counting a record-setting playoff yield of 626 to the Saints, that norm was 455. No team ever had that bad a rate over the course of a season.

    Along the line, NT Ndamukong Suh and DE Cliff Avril have the ability to dominate, especially in collapsing the pocket. Detroit was tied for first in causing 14 QB fumbles last season, recovering six.

    But only the out-of-control Oakland Raiders saw more penalty yards marched off against them than Detroit (1,075), which was 2-5 when committing 10 or more infractions.

    Until that climate of lawlessness is curbed (off the field, too), this team will be playing at a disadvantage.

    Minnesota Vikings

    Minnesota is a 25-1 shot to win the division, which matches the longest odds of a team in any grouping. It appears the only thing the Vikings have going for them is RB Adrian Peterson and DE Jared Allen.

    But Peterson is coming off a left knee injury (torn ACL, MCL) that could keep him off the field until after opening day.

    If foes find a comfort zone running against Minnesota, Allen’s pass-rushing abilities will be largely negated. At QB, Christian Ponder had the fourth worst passer rating among qualifying throwers as a rookie in 2011, but he had his moments after breaking into the lineup in Week 6. Included was a 381-yard, three-TD performance in a 35-32 loss against Denver.

    On defense, the Vikings were a surprising 21st in yards allowed, an accomplishment of sorts considering they had two games apiece against the league’s No. 1 (Rodgers) and No. 5 (Stafford) passer plus one vs. No. 13 (Cutler).

    In summary, it appears even a third-place finish could be out of reach for Minnesota.
     
  3. TLAU

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    AFC West Division preview
    By MARC LAWRENCE

    Deuces are wild in the AFC West these days.

    For the second-straight year, the good news in the AFC West last season was that only one team suffered a losing record. And for the second year in a row year the bad news was that only one team in the division earned a spot in the playoffs.

    Surprisingly, for the second-straight year, it wasn’t San Diego.

    The wild, wild West also finds two new coaches roaming the sidelines for – you guessed it – the second-straight year. Dennis Allen, defensive coordinator with Denver last season, takes the reins at Oakland while Romeo Crennel shed the interim label at Kansas City when he was elevated to full-time head coach this season.

    Meanwhile, incumbents John Fox at Denver and Norv Turner at San Diego bring near-break even career records in to the season. That fits like a glove within a division that saw all four teams go 3-3 in head-to-head play last season.

    Known as a good dog (49-37-1 ATS), and a bad favorite (32-43-3 ATS), Fox’s NFL career numbers are balanced at 86-82 SU and 83-81-4 ATS.

    Turner enters with a 111-117-1 SU and 118-117-4 ATS career log, including 39-54-3 ATS in division battles. Worse, when laying 10 or more points in division duels Turner is 1-9 ATS.

    In closing, this note of caution: Before revving up with home teams in this division, you would be best advised to throttle down as AFC West hosts have gone 23-50-5 ATS since 2000 versus division opponents with losing records, including 0-7 ATS last season, and a mind-boggling 2-17-1 ATS in an anticipated low-scoring contest when the Over/Under total in the game was 40 or fewer points.

    No matter how you spin it, it appears as if the numbers outlined above make this the mild, mild West… if you get my drift.

    Note: Team writeups by this author were excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

    DENVER

    Team Theme: PEYTON’S NEW PLACE

    The Broncos are betting four-time MVP Peyton Manning can win the race to the Super Bowl. Ironically, last year’s team lost in the divisional round of the playoffs with a quarterback (Tim Tebow) who won seven of his first eight games after coming off the bench to replace an erratic starter (Kyle Orton). They opted, instead, to bank heavily on the belief that, three-neck surgeries aside, Peyton is the man and Denver is the place for Manning to re-establish his career. A young receiving corps and a young offensive line (three of five starters were still in college three years ago) will need to quickly come of age. Here’s hoping Manning is sound and they don’t need to look to the bench with Caleb Hanie, who is winless in his NFL career. NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year LB Von Miller and Pro Bowl DE Elvis Dumerville give new defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio a strong nucleus. Del Rio, the Broncos’ 7th DC the last seven years, worked with head coach John Fox at Carolina in 2002. The bottom line is with Manning the Broncos win another race to the playoffs… by a neck.

    PLAY AGAINST: at Cincinnati (11/4)

    STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Broncos will face .500 or greater foes (last year) in each of their first eight games of the season, and only one team with a losing record in their final eight games.

    IN THE STATS: The Broncos were 6-12 ‘ITS’ last season.

    KANSAS CITY

    Team Theme: WHERE FOR ART THOU, ROMEO

    When former Browns coach Romeo Crennel was hired as defensive coordinator by Kansas City, little did he realize he’d be taking on another title in addition to DC for the Chiefs – that of head coach, again. The 2009 overhaul of the organization backfired when GM Scott Pioli and head coach Todd Haley were canned last year. Crennel brings in a new offensive coordinator for the 4th time in four years in Brian Dabol, formerly with the Dolphins and Browns. Meanwhile, Crennel will continue to run the defense. Injuries took a big toll on the Chiefs in 2011, knocking out four starters including QB Matt Cassel, along with RB Jamaal Charles, TE Tony Mokeaki and S Eric Berry. Only a strong second-half performance by the defense (held three of final six foes to season-low yards) kept the Chiefs competitive. The additions of former Pro Bowl RB Peyton Hillis and TE Kevin Boss should bolster the offense. For it all Romeo is no longer in hiding. He the big boss man, again.

    PLAY ON: at Pittsburgh (11/12)

    STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Crennel is 0-6 SU and ATS in games after allowing 10 or less points in his NFL career.

    IN THE STATS: The Chiefs won the stats in all three games under Crennel last season.

    OAKLAND

    Team Theme: NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN

    For the first time since Al Davis passed, there is a new Donald Trump running the show in Oakland and his name is Reggie McKenzie. The former Michigan Wolverines, Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks lineman – and current College Football Hall of Fame member – McKenzie’s first move was hiring Dennis Allen as the Raiders new head coach. Allen, the defensive coordinator with Denver last year, inherits a deep but undisciplined front line, one that surrendered a whopping 5.1 yards per rush last season for new DC Jason Tarver, a co-defensive coordinator at Stanford and former assistant with the 49ers. Look for improvement from the rush defense to become priority-one. Offensive coordinator Greg Knapp returns for a second stint with Oakland (Knapp was OC under Lane Kiffin in 2007-08). Knapp has plenty of weapons in QB Carson Palmer, RB Darren McFadden and WR Darrius Heyward-Bey. The pieces are in place for McKenzie to build this team the right way… from the ground up. If Allen can re-instill a modicum of discipline and tighten the screws on a leaky rush defense, this team could be a sleeper in the AFC West.

    PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Kansas City (12/16)

    STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Raiders set an NFL record for penalties and penalty yards in 2011.

    IN THE STATS: The Raiders were 1-7 ‘ITS’ away from home last season.


    SAN DIEGO

    Team Theme: THE HOTTIE OR THE NOTTIE

    After missing the playoffs the last two seasons, one might think Norv Turner would own a different zip code these days. It’s easy to pin the blame on the embattled Turner who, despite a 52-34 ledger in his days in sunny San Diego, is surely the most vilified coach roaming the sidelines in the NFL these days. Noted for his slow starts and fast finishes, Turner actually got out the gate in atypical fashion last season when the Bolts opened the season with wins in four of their first five games. Not knowing how to react, they proceeded to lose their next six games before making another patented late surge to close out the up-and-down campaign – while improving to 23-3 SU in the month of December. It was enough for owner Alex Spanos to extend the services of the Norvous one for at least another season, but one can only assume the seat he sits on these days is hotter than Hades. New coordinators on both sides of the ball, along with a Grade ‘A’ draft which included three defensive stalwarts, holds promise for the new season ahead.

    PLAY ON: vs. Denver (10/15)

    STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Chargers are 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS in Eastern-time zone cities with Turner.

    IN THE STATS: The Chargers are 13-3 ‘ITS’ at home the last two seasons.
     
  4. TLAU

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    Doc's Sports NFL articles

    NFL Hard Teams to Handicap

    There are two types of teams in the NFL — those that are easy to understand and those that aren’t. Some teams are clearly going to be very good or very bad, and it would take something shocking to change that.

    Those ones are easy to deal with.

    But then there are the ones that are less clear. Perhaps they seem to be good but could have a glaring issue that could hijack everything. Or maybe they have obvious problems that could totally destroy their season, but they have other factors that could make them competitive.

    If you have watched the NFL for any time then you know that good teams don’t always win and bad teams don’t always lose, and you can’t always see it coming. For bettors that leads to headaches.

    Here’s a look at four teams that are making my head hurt as this regular season slowly approaches:

    Miami Dolphins

    This team has not been very good for a long time now and there are a lot of reasons to believe that they won’t be good now. Every time I feel like I am about to write them off, though, I hear something else that makes me hesitate.

    There are definitely positives. With Brandon Marshall out of town the attitude seems to be much more positive. Joe Philbin was by far the best offseason coaching hire this year, and the early indications are that his team has taken to him very well. He has assembled a strong coaching staff as well.

    There is a three-way quarterback battle underway, but David Garrard is clearly the right choice in my eyes and he seems to be establishing himself as such. Cameron Wake is moving to defensive end from linebacker with the change in schemes, and he’s only going to be more impressive there.

    I am not suggesting this is a playoff team by any means, but my gut keeps telling me they could be a pleasant surprise — even if my mind tells me they are a long way away.

    Tennessee Titans

    This team is so hard to judge for two big reasons.

    First, what can we expect from Chris Johnson? Two years ago he was the biggest difference-maker in the game. Last year he was largely invisible. The offense is going to be run through him, so his effectiveness is obviously a massive factor in the success this team will enjoy. He’s in a better mental space and could be as good as ever, but the list of outstanding running backs who have bounced back strong from a subpar season is much shorter than the list of those that haven’t.

    Second, and more significant, is the quarterback situation. They have a unique situation. Matt Hasselbeck is a veteran in the later stages of his outstanding career, while Jake Locker is a future star in the early days of his. Sooner or later Locker will take over this team, but right now they probably have a better chance of winning under Hasselbeck.

    Who they go with, and how long they stick with him, will have a big impact on how this team fares in a division that is wide open.

    Seattle Seahawks

    We know what Pete Carroll was able to do at USC, so he is obviously worth plenty of respect. He’s in his third year with this team as well, so by now he should be in a position to really break through and work his magic.

    That’s what a lot of people seem to think, and given the questions surrounding the teams in their division a lot of people like the Seahawks.

    While I get that sentiment to an extent, and there are a lot of things I like about the team, I also can’t shake the feeling that they could really be in trouble.

    Carroll has made a total mess of the quarterback situation with his indecisiveness, and that could be a massive problem going forward — especially because none of the options leap out as clearly a great one.

    The wide receivers will be relied on to ease the pressure on those quarterbacks, but you need to look no further than the signing of Terrell Owens to realize that there are obvious issues there.

    All in all, this strikes me as a team that could win 10 games but could just as easily win five.

    Carroll could be Coach of the Year or jobless by January, and I wouldn’t be particularly surprised either way.

    New York Jets

    This team is the definition of a circus. If you watch ESPN you would think that there is only one team in the league given the amount of coverage they are getting. That is going to translate into massive public betting support — especially if Tim Tebow plays a prominent role early.

    While a lot of people are high on this team I am certainly not one of them.

    I think the quarterback situation is a recipe for disaster, and the volatile Rex Ryan is about the worst guy to manage the delicate situation. There are talent issues in several spots, and attitude concerns in others.

    I am not at all positive about this team. I really don’t like them. But then I read people who I respect saying that they could be good and I get confused — at least somewhat.
     
  5. TLAU

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    2012 NFC East Division preview
    By MARC LAWRENCE

    Long considered the ‘beast’ of all NFL divisions, the NFC East features no less than three Pro Bowl quarterbacks, and one hoping to join the triumvirate sometime soon.

    In fact, three-fourths of the teams residing in this division, sans hopeful Washington, are projected to end the season on a winning note by Las Vegas oddsmakers.

    Leading the charge this season is Philadelphia, the one team that has appeared in more NFC playoff games since 2000. The Eagles’ 19 postseason games trails only New England’s 22 for league honors over the same span. Together, the NFC East has combined to play 42 games in the playoffs in the 2000’s, two more than the AFC North.

    With only the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants in this division having earned a playoff berth in 2011, expect the NFC East to play with vehemence this season.

    Meanwhile, these ‘beasts’ have rewarded their backers since 2000 when they’ve dressed up as road dogs, going 146-110-7 ATS collectively, including 31-13 when playing off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.

    While they may beat up on each other with a fairly high degree of regularity, these NFC East creatures of habit certainly command the respect of players, both on the field and at the betting windows.

    Note: Team writeups by this author were excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

    DALLAS

    Team Theme: AS JERRY’S WORLD TURNS

    One of the best football books ever written, ‘The Greatest Team Ever’ authored by our good friend Norm Hitzges, chronicled the accomplishments of the Dallas Cowboys during the 1990’s. It tells the tale of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones’ purchase of the team in 1989 and its meteoric success thereafter. Three decades later, and with only one win in eight playoff games since 1996, Jones’ world has been rocked. Sure, he still owns America’s team, and a posh billion-dollar football stadium, but what he doesn’t have is a place among the hierarchy in the league today – and it’s killing him. Jones is banking on quarterback Tony Romo to stop the bleeding. Romo enjoyed his best season ever last year with 31 touchdowns. What Romo hasn’t had is a 1,000-yard running back since 2006 so he’s hoping DeMarco Murray can be that man in 2012. What Romo needs more than anything is the return to full health of WR’s Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. Rob Ryan’s defense features super stud DE DeMarcus Ware and a draft loaded with defensive talent. It’s all enough to keep Jones’ head spinning.

    PLAY ON: at NY Giants (9/5)

    STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS as Monday night favorites of 7 or less points.

    IN THE STATS: The Cowboys have won the stats in 34 of 50 games the L3Y.


    NY GIANTS

    Team Theme: ELI’S COMING (DOWN)

    Following a two-year hiatus from the playoffs, QB Eli Manning won his second Super Bowl MVP award in five years when he led the Giants to an exciting 21-17 win over New England in the NFL’s final game last season. As a result, Big Blue takes on a new persona in 2012 – that of a defending Super Bowl champion. While the rings are nice, our advice is simple: look to fade the champs wherever possible this season. By carrying the infamous Super Bowl bulls-eye squarely in their backs, the Giants become a prime-time game on virtually every opponent’s schedule this season. In addition, the G-Men were hit hard by salary cap losses with RB Brandon Jacobs, WR Mario Manningham, CB Aaron Ross and OT Kareem McKenzie, among others, departing. Complicating matters was a defense that lived largely on reputation, but fell short on performance last year as they regressed 57 YPG from the 2010 stop-unit’s numbers. Also lost in the shuffle were QB coach Mike Sullivan to Tampa Bay and OL coach Jack Bicknell Jr. to Kansas City. With that, we’ll look to fade this year’s PLAYBOOK cover boy more often than not this season.

    PLAY AGAINST: vs. Philadelphia (12/30)

    STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Eli Manning is 22-5 SU in October in his NFL career.

    IN THE STATS: The Giants won the stats in each of their final 8 games last season.


    PHILADELPHIA

    Team Theme: IT’S GETTING HOT IN HERE

    When the Eagles assembled the ‘dream team’ last season, they immediately became the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. A 4-8 start put a lid on that dream and immediately turned up the heat on head coach Andy Reid’s seat. Still, Reid enters his 14th season with the Eagles excited with the way his team closed down the stretch (4-0 SU and ATS final four games) while also giddy over an excellent draft. Offensively, the Green Birds take a back seat to few behind dual threat QB Michael Vick, RB LeSean McCoy and WR’s DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Admittedly, the defense struggled early on under new DC Juan Castillo, but held three of its final four foes to season-low – or 2nd-low – yards to finish the season. The secondary allowed 27 touchdowns and was slow to assimilate Castillo’s playbook. Thus, the feeling on the team is the trade of CB Asante Samuel and the release of backup QB Vince Young is addition by subtraction. Meanwhile, fuel for the Bunsen burner is standing by.

    PLAY ON: vs. Atlanta (10/28)

    STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Michael Vick is 1-6 SU and ATS off a SU and ATS win versus a .700 or greater foe off a SU and ATS win.

    IN THE STATS: The Eagles were 13-3 ‘ITS’ last season, including 7-1 away.


    WASHINGTON

    Team Theme: SHOW ME THE MONEY

    After starting 11-21 in his first two seasons in the nation’s capitol, Mike Shanahan realized now was the time to snap the rubber band and mortgage Dan Snyder’s money for a dynamic quarterback. He did just that when he traded up in the draft to secure the services of Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III. As a result, RG3 is the new face of the program and hopefully represents the end to a run of 21 QB’s who have started games for the Skins the last 19 years (with three playoff appearances). Wide receivers Pierre Garcon (Colts) and Josh Morgan (49ers) were brought in to help kick-start the transition. Meanwhile, DC Jim Haslett’s defense took a major step forward last season when it improved 49 YPG. In fact, the Redskins were the only team in the league to improve their stats both offensively and defensively yet regress SU and ATS last season. With the front seven returning intact, the onus now falls on the offense and its coveted quarterback. With a heavy investment now in place, the squint-eyed Shanahan should be sleeping better these days.

    PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Baltimore (12/9)

    STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Only two QB’s have ever won a Heisman Trophy and a Super Bowl game, Jim Plunkett in 1970 and Roger Staubach in 1963.

    IN THE STATS: The Redskins are 3-13 away ‘ITS’ under Shanahan.
     
  6. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
    Staff Donor

    I get his book every year. Gives great trends and stats for betting knowledge for CFB and NFL. Really recommend it.