NFL Picks- Rounding Again (36-7-2 this year)

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by goose, Nov 4, 2015.

  1. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Four-way tie atop the Westgate SuperContest at 13-2 ATS
    The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest drew a record number of entries this year. Ethan Miller/Getty Images
    5:07 PM ET
    • [​IMG]
      Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer

    LAS VEGAS -- There are no more perfect records in the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest as the vast majority of players had a rough NFL Week 3.

    The contestants going by the aliases Scorpio and Codlock both went 2-3 against the SuperContest spread over a weekend that saw the top five consensus (the most-selected teams) go 0-5 ATS for the second straight week and the overall consensus also go 4-12 for the second week in a row.

    There are now four entries tied for first place at 13-2: KM Sports, OhioAgainstTheWorld, Winning Angle and 4ViewsFromVegas (which, in case you haven't heard, is a four-player team that I'm involved with).

    KM Sports, OhioAgainsttheWorld and Winning Angle all went 5-0 in Week 3 as they avoided the most popular plays while 4ViewFromVegas was 4-1 with the only loss being on the Jacksonville (a 19-17 loser to Baltimore at pick 'em), which was the fourth most-selected team. All picks of the record 1,854 entrants (actually, there was one no-show in Week 3) went 3,724-5,541 (40.2 percent).



    [​IMG]
    What we learned: Week 3 NFL betting recap
    Missed any of the NFL action on Sunday? Dave Tuley runs through all 13 games to give a recap from a betting perspective, including which teams covered easily and which games were toss-ups.



    After the first three weeks of the season, the top five consensus has dropped to 3-12 ATS (20 percent) while the overall consensus isn't much better at 17-30 (36.2 percent) -- and all picks of all contestants are 12,786-15,009 (46 percent). (Note: the Steelers-Redskins game in Week 1 had the exact same number of entrants pick each side, so that's not included.)

    The leaderboard is pretty crowded at the top with 30 entrants, including last week's co-leaders, tied for fifth place at 12-3 with another 47 tied for 35th at 11-4, just two games behind the leaders.

    SuperContestants pay $1,500 to enter and are playing for more than $2.5 million in prizes (after an administrative fee of 8 percent was taken out) and a first-place prize of $895,482. The contest runs all 17 weeks of the NFL season and we'll follow it here at ESPN Chalk until the champion is crowned.

    Golden Nugget leader goes 7-0 to vault to 19-2 ATS overall
    A Friday Football Showdown entrant named @NFL_Totals went 7-0 over the weekend and is now 19-2 ATS (90.5 percent) after three weeks of the $2,000 buy-in contest at the Golden Nugget that allows contestants to also pick NFL over/unders as well as college sides and totals.

    @NFL_Totals, who prefers to stay anonymous at this time (though he won't have that option if he makes the playoff portion of the contest that takes place on The Las Vegas Sportsline radio show starting in Week 11), has a 2.5-point lead over RoughRider39 and Will Landers, who are tied for second at 16-4-1 (just like the SuperContest, a win is worth 1 point and a push is worth half a point).

    Timothy Billow is fourth at 16-5, last year's runner-up Anthony Curtis is fifth at 15-6 and FreaksForum and Mucked Nuts are tied with 14.5 points for sixth and seventh place, which is the cutoff for the playoffs. The eighth berth will be determined in a "wild-card chase" in Weeks 9 and 10.

    So, @NFL_Totals is 4.5 points above the cut while there are 37 entrants that are within 3 points of that covered seventh spot. The Friday Football Showdown drew a field of 96 players at $2,000 apiece for a prize pool of $192,000. The eight qualifiers will earn $3,000 each and then face off in head-to-head matches between Nov. 19 and Dec. 9 on The Las Vegas Sportsline radio show from 2-3 p.m. PT Fridays on ESPN AM 1100 here in town. Those four winners will each win another $2,000 each.

    The remaining $160,000 is then split up with $96,000 to the eventual champion (for a total haul of $101,000), $40,000 to the runner-up, $8,000 each to the semifinal losers and $8,000 to the winner of a bonus mini-contest held in NFL Weeks 15-17 for all contestants (even those eliminated earlier).
     
  2. The Hebrew Husker

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    Not sure if it's him but appears NFL_Totals posts his on Twitter
     
  3. Trip McNeely

    Trip McNeely Guys like us....we are a dime a dozen
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    I may fade the consensus picks this week. That means they'll probably be 5-0 though.
     
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  4. The Hebrew Husker

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    Random and I know he's not a handicapper but random heard on ESPN radio today that Stu Gotz dude is 0-15 ats in NFL
     
  5. The Hebrew Husker

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    With a 1500 entry, how many of these do you think are just like a random group of dudes who chipped in to split the 1500.00 entry and aren't cappers
     
  6. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    A large bit of it. I think they are at almost 2000 entrees. Now you can use a proxy in Vegas to turn in your picks, so I'm sure a group of buddies in Ohio or Texas joined because of the new rules.
     
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  7. Trip McNeely

    Trip McNeely Guys like us....we are a dime a dozen
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    Probably a decent amount. I know some guys who did it last year that have no business in a contest like that.
     
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  8. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Week 4 NFL Early Leans

    Cle +7.5 at Wash
    KC +5.5 at Pitt
    LA +8.5 at AZ
    Den at TB +2.5
    Dal -2.5 at SF
    NYG at Minn -3.5
     
  9. Trip McNeely

    Trip McNeely Guys like us....we are a dime a dozen
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  10. The Hebrew Husker

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    What you guys thinking? Anyone fading the consensus?
     
  11. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    I am taking the Jets and Panthers.
     
  12. The Hebrew Husker

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    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Looks like another losing week possibly for the consensus
     
  13. The Hebrew Husker

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    1-4 consensus. It's going 5-0 next week when I fade.
     
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  14. The Hebrew Husker

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    Faded the top 5 consenusus. Unfortunately one of those picks meant taking the #6 team on that list.
     
  15. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Placeholder for a Custom Title
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    Can you post the list pls
     
  16. The Hebrew Husker

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    TheGodfather and Corky Bucek like this.
  17. The Hebrew Husker

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    Just FTR at quick glance it looked like 2015 and 2014 consensus picks were around 57-60ish% by year's end, so I would assume this starts evening out soon, but for now I will fade.
     
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  18. The Hebrew Husker

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    3-2 this week, so 2-3 if you faded.

    Luckily I had GB +7 so it pushed.
     
  19. The Hebrew Husker

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    Leader is now 21-4, a few guys at 20-5
     
  20. Trip McNeely

    Trip McNeely Guys like us....we are a dime a dozen
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    Consensus:

    1. [​IMG] KC 704 38%
    2. [​IMG] SEA (-6.5) 450 24.5%
    3. [​IMG] GB (-4.5) 448 24.5%
    4. [​IMG] HOU (-3) 424 23%
    5. [​IMG] PHI (-2.5) 410 22%

    RIPSAW (Leader at 21-4):
    [​IMG] CLE (+7) [​IMG] WAS (+2.5) [​IMG] KC [​IMG] SEA (-6.5) [​IMG] HOU (-3)
     
  21. The Hebrew Husker

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    Well that's a tough conflict, especially the week I was gonna tail the leader.
     
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  22. The Hebrew Husker

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    Rolled with all of the picks from the leader, also added in BAL since a few of the top guys had them.
     
  23. The Hebrew Husker

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    Edit:

    Reverse jinx for a push in Houston.
     
    #173 The Hebrew Husker, Oct 16, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2016
  24. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
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    Well I think I'm going to start to tail RIPSAW...
     
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  25. The Hebrew Husker

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    RIPSAW in sole possession of first place at 24-5-1

    Two guys tied for second at 23-7
     
  26. colonelrascals

    colonelrascals Mayonnaise-colored Benz, I push miracle whips
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    picks?
     
  27. Trip McNeely

    Trip McNeely Guys like us....we are a dime a dozen
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    Consensus Picks (8-21-1 YTD)
    1. [​IMG] MIN (-2.5)
    2. [​IMG] SD (+6.5)
    3. [​IMG] TEN (-2.5)
    4. [​IMG] NE (-7)
    5. [​IMG] MIA (+3)

    RIPSAW (24-5-1 YTD)

    MIA
    NYJ
    SD
    PIT
    ARI
     
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  28. VASooner

    VASooner Well-Known Member
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    Wow, I'm against Riptide for 3 games... Love SD and Pit, though.
     
  29. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    So about the nfl tomorrow

    Miami +3
    Jets
    SD +6.5
    Pit +7
    ARI -1.5
     
  30. The Hebrew Husker

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    Followed RIP on 5 single bets so if there's a day he goes 5-0 it's today since I didn't parlay
     
  31. colonelrascals

    colonelrascals Mayonnaise-colored Benz, I push miracle whips
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    today is a good day. I went pats hard and took ripshaw on every other play
     
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  32. VASooner

    VASooner Well-Known Member
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    This is why I post on TMB and he's in the contest, apparently.
     
  33. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    I'm gonna lose on a tie, aren't I?
     
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  34. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    Not all bad...I had ARZ ML which resulted in a push.

    [​IMG]
     
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  35. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    RIPSAW
    NO +2.5
    Buff +6.5
    CLE +3
    SD +5.5
    Car -3
     
  36. The Hebrew Husker

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    Damn not sure about a few of those gonna just stick to 1u each this week. (5-0 coming)
     
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  37. Long Ball Larry

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    Riding with Ripsaw and Johnny Vegas today.
     
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  38. The Hebrew Husker

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    Welp why not? Tack it on.
     
  39. The Hebrew Husker

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    NE or BUF though? Hah
     
  40. Long Ball Larry

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    I've followed Ripsaw for the last few weeks, so I went with the Bills.
     
  41. The Hebrew Husker

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    Same. Wasn't a fan but I'm blindly following.
     
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  42. The Hebrew Husker

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    Damn theres going to be 3-4 people at the top if not all tied after this week, will make it tough to follow. Last year Rounding was so far ahead I felt confident, this year not so much.
     
  43. Long Ball Larry

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    Except for Pitt (since he had it as a pick), I took all of Redwine's picks. Also teased them all six points.
     
  44. Long Ball Larry

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    All the leaders took a beating today.
    Redwine has Denver tonight and am too gunshy to pull the trigger.
     
  45. The Hebrew Husker

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    Good call, I did not...
     
  46. Long Ball Larry

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    I took the Oakland money line. Harvey Updyke wss there and said the place was electric before kickoff.
     
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  47. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    took SD and Oakland
     
  48. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    10 of the top 16 super contest leaders had a 50% week or worse
     
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  49. Trip McNeely

    Trip McNeely Guys like us....we are a dime a dozen
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    Consensus (15-28-2 YTD):
    1. [​IMG] PIT (-2.5)
    2. [​IMG] NO (-2.5)
    3. [​IMG] ATL
    4. [​IMG] GB (-2.5)
    5. [​IMG] CAR (-3)

    Leaders:
    1 SCORPIO NO GB CHI ARI NE (31-13-1)
    2 RIPSAW JAC MIN PIT SEA CIN (30-12-3)
    3 REDWINE JAC ATL CHI NE CIN (31-13-1)
    4 PSALM 86 JAC NO GB PIT NYG (31-13-1)