Not Lech's 2020 Democratic Candidate Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by NilesIrish, Mar 4, 2019.

  1. Matt Foley

    Matt Foley Well-Known Member
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    I’m honestly not sure how you “seize the spotlight” in this scenario. Warren has been churning out (very good) policy proposals and just doesn’t get the coverage.
     
  2. Bricktop the white

    Bricktop the white Well-Known Member

    People also think that automation this time around is gonna be the same as automation last time around and they're sorely mistaken.
     
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  3. Goose

    Goose Hi
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    How much do you know about the automation amazon puts in their warehouses?
     
  4. NoNatty

    NoNatty Keyboard Cowboy
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    Warren’s signature policy is to make 99.9% of people”s lives better, and if dems win the senate in 2020 there is a chance she could implement a form of that policy.

    But yes, let’s continue to complain that she isn’t making telecom regulation the sole focus of her campaign.
     
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  5. Bricktop the white

    Bricktop the white Well-Known Member

    Enough to know that they're going to be able to fully replace their warehouse workers entirely within my lifetime.
     
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  6. NilesIrish

    NilesIrish Not a master fisher but I know bait when I see it
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    Warren is clearly the best policy wise, but just does not get talked about. I'm not sure why..

    She's a woman with a big brain
     
  7. Goose

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    Oh ok thanks
     
  8. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    Not going to reiterate my position on Warren again, and watch this thread go off the rails for three pages from people who don’t understand why she doesn’t rally support.

    She can’t beat Trump. Her most effective place to influence policy is as a loud and left voice in the Senate.
     
  9. Tug

    Tug Well-Known Member
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    Do you have the ability or willingness to articulate any of your thoughts? Or are you just going to dismiss all complaints related to late stage capitalism with no backing?
     
  10. Goose

    Goose Hi
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    I’m not wasting my time in a discussion with someone that doesn’t know what they’re talking about in regards to Amazon’s (Or any retailers) warehouse automation
     
  11. Matt Foley

    Matt Foley Well-Known Member
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    The fact that this sentiment exists in any living, breathing human is fucking depressing.
     
  12. Tug

    Tug Well-Known Member
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    Because you have no idea?
     
  13. Bricktop the white

    Bricktop the white Well-Known Member


    This is like when dipshit right wingers play gotcha because someone who wants children to stop being mowed down can't tell the difference between the various brands of AR-15.
    The new wave of automation is going to be way different than the ones that came before it and just pretending it's gonna be the same does nobody any favors.


    There's going to be 3 million truck drivers out work in the next 25 years. Another few million taxi and Uber drivers. Document review robots and automated drafting is coming for lawyers and paralegals. Most manufacturing is already heavily automated and will become fully automated sometime in the next 50 years. We are fundamentally unprepared for a society where nobody needs to work.
     
  14. Bricktop the white

    Bricktop the white Well-Known Member

    "you don't even know the brand of self driving truck that made your job non existent" I say as I smugly dismiss the homeless former truck driver and tell him to learn to code.
     
  15. Goose

    Goose Hi
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    Have a good one guys
     
  16. Bricktop the white

    Bricktop the white Well-Known Member


    Fuck you disingenuous spineless fucking piece of shit. Go back to the shitpit.
     
  17. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    You already have self checkout's becoming more and more popular. Janitorial, food service, etc... seem like they're on the verge as well.
     
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  18. Goose

    Goose Hi
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    I’m sorry that you’re upset that someone who works in warehouse automation won’t argue with you for hours over this
     
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  19. Bricktop the white

    Bricktop the white Well-Known Member


    The real problem is that the next wave of automation is going to be robots that know how to think. No safety in white collar trades when robots will soon be able to read documents and make decisions.

    Or maybe you think that you're special and your company definitely won't fire you for an employee who never gets tired, takes breaks, or needs a salary.
     
  20. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    There was a link to a site at one point, think it was something through NPR, and there were a lot of white collar jobs that I put in that it predicted would be automated. See if I can find it.
     
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  21. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    Easier to find than I thought

     
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  22. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    Idk why that embeds an audio link
     
  23. Bricktop the white

    Bricktop the white Well-Known Member


    "My job is to help invent and manage robots to remove humans from their jobs but people who worry about society using robots to separate humans from their jobs are retards"


    Fuck you, you smug piece of shit.
     
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  24. Goose

    Goose Hi
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    Do you need a hug?
     
  25. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    Well it was harder than I thought. Just google "will my job be automated npr" and it's the first link. It's thing where you can plug in job titles and it will tell you the percent chance your job will be automated, if interested.
     
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  26. Tilly

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    3.5% for me.

    And feel like it is actually less than that given the specific work I do.
     
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  27. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    Don’t know what to tell you if you believe she can.

    Since the 2000 election, 38 states have voted either red or blue consistently in all 5 elections. That leaves only 12 states which have flipped in any election in the last 20 years.

    These 12 states are largely 4 groups: (1) the Midwest Rust Belt (Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin); (2) the Mountain West/SW (Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico); the Mid-Atlantic (NC and VA), or (4) Florida.

    If you use the last three elections 2008-2016, the geographical data is even more stark. You have VA, NC, and FL, then all 6 Rust Belt states.

    This 2020 election will be won or lost in the 6 Rust Belt states. Warren can’t win there.
     
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  28. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    MIne was actually lower than I remembered it being but I think Medicare for all could be a bigger threat to my job than automation.
     
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  29. Goose

    Goose Hi
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    My exact job wasn’t there but the two closest for me was 1.1% and 3.5%
     
  30. Tobias

    Tobias dan “the man qb1” jones fan account
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    wow my job as general manager of the atlanta braves has a 28% chance of automation
     
  31. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    for anyone who actually cares

    theres no evidence this is true

    but we've had this discussion before
     
  32. momux

    momux AFAM Scholar
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    Yang is the only candidate actually campaigning on a solution that addressses automation.

    Warren’s approach to break up these companies doesn’t address the underlying root cause of that problem. Just because you split up amazon into a logistics company, a marketing platform, and a leased server company doesn’t mean that any of those are going to pursue automation any less vigorously.

    Note: this is very much not an endorsement of Yang.
     
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  33. MORBO!

    MORBO! Hello, Tiny Man. I WILL DESTROY YOU!!!!
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    I will say that I think this thread gives way too much credit to the effect “plans” and “policies” will have on the electorate. I’m as big of a policy geek as anyone, but most Americans don’t vote because candidate A has a plan slightly different from candidate B. They vote based on how they “feel” about a candidate. It’s stupid, but it’s where we are.

    I love Warren and she’s my #1, but every time I see “BUT HER PLANS” I just can’t help but think that not many people really give a shit.
     
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  34. NCHusker88

    NCHusker88 We named our yam Pam. It rhymed.
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    Idk man I think this guy might be a psychic
     
  35. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    The objective polling data is pretty clear, Warren is the weakest among the Biden, Sanders, and Harris front runners against Trump in all of the Midwestern states.

    Take a look at Real Clear Politics or any other site tracking numbers of the various polls since April/May.

    The other three candidates are consistently higher than Warren vis a vis Trump.
     
  36. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    and as all the polling experts will tell you, general polling right now is worthless predictive wise (i know how much you love historical comps) and largely only tracks along with the %'s in the primary which will be a pointless correlate when someones actually wins the primary and aggregates it all
     
  37. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    and just cause I was curious I looked

    Warren is polling ahead of Harris in match up polls since April soooo
     
  38. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    Harris can’t win the Midwest either.
     
  39. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    are we just making a "dems must choose a male" takes but trying to couch it?
     
  40. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    So in response to the “no evidence this is true,” Your argument is basically that you don’t like the evidence.
     
  41. NCHusker88

    NCHusker88 We named our yam Pam. It rhymed.
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    You should let their campaigns know this
     
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  42. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    I know you Ohio guys struggle with math, but like I said in my previous post but you didn't understand, polling experts have looked at the historical general election polling PRIOR to the primary ending and found it has little to no predictive value in the general. So using it an indicator to make any point doesn't actually help your case and isn't a case of me just not liking the evidence, it's that it has near no value.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-year-out-ignore-general-election-polls/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-we-take-these-early-general-election-polls-seriously-no/
     
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  43. NCHusker88

    NCHusker88 We named our yam Pam. It rhymed.
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    The thing you cited was not evidence of what you claimed. So Lyrtch is still right
     
  44. momux

    momux AFAM Scholar
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    I agree completely with this. Personally the polling/politicking/race for the White House component is far less interesting to me than the policies.
     
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  45. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    But, Warren's enthusiasm for her policies translates differently than almost any other candidate. And she is running on a for the people platform that can win in the needed areas.

    Herb is just trying to say that only Biden can win. Which is moronic. But here we are
     
  46. MORBO!

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    Translates differently for who? I still don’t think your average to low engagement voter could even tell you what any of her plans are with any specificity. But those are the majority of voters.

    High information and high engagement voters with a college degree? Sure.
     
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  47. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    I don't think people will be able to tell you her plans with absolute specificity. But they will know that she A) has plans B) to help the middle class C) and is fucking pumped about them
     
  48. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    If you don’t think that misogynist tendancies among male union workers in the Rust Belt aren’t going to be a factor, then again, I don’t know what to tell you.

    It’s not that a woman can’t win, but she has to be the right kind of candidate.

    A woman has to be more conservative and hawkish on defense, to overcome stereotypes about being a coastal liberal that are going to be core campaign attacks.
     
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  49. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    you realize this is just your opinion right?
     
  50. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    I do think misogyny will matter.

    But like I said in my original post, theres not solid evidence it means Warren/Harris can't win. Does it give them a more uphill battle than Biden/Bernie?

    Maybe, but lots of the polling people have talked about how women have over performed the fundamentals at a higher clip since Trump won so maybe not.

    It's not as cut and dry as you make it nor does your opinion with no evidence to back it up actually have more weight than anyone elses non-empirically grounded takes.
     
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