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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by NilesIrish, Mar 4, 2019.
General electorate misogyny is a hell of a fucking drug.
You’re still listing Ohio...Ohio isn’t a swing state in 2020
Look at the type of Democrat who is winning in the Rust Belt—Connor Lamb, Sherrod Brown, or some of the freshmen Congresswomen like Haley Stevens (MI) or Cindy Axne (IA).
It’s a broad generalization, but it’s pretty fundamental that a Democrat cannot win in the Midwest without enthusiasm from the union vote.
How much do you want to bet that Ohio votes for the winning candidate in the general election?
This. I know literally hundreds of Union Plumbers/Pipefitters that are heavy left due to Union ties, but still can't fathom a woman. "She just doesn't get it."
It's self defeating and dumb, but it is real.
hillary was reviled and she was less than a hundred thousand votes across a few states from winning. fuck outta here with "warren can't beat trump!" nonsense
Ohio has voted with the winner in every general election since 1960, but sure.
So Donald Trump is winning. Pack it up and go home everyone!
without the FBI letter she wins and we miss all this talk
(over learning is bad)
So are you interested in betting or not
Should be easy money for you if you think the dems will win while losing Ohio
DEBATE/bet me YOU COWARD!!!
Shitty Goose is about as bad as this board gets.
You’re asking me to bet on two things that aren’t directly linked in a causal manner. Why would I do such a thing?
besides being a woman what makes you think she can’t win the midwestern vote? Her policy positions have broad support.
So now you're anti-Democratic? You really are The Big Show of this thread.
How much do you want to bet that Ohio votes for Trump?
If Warren were a man there wouldn't even be a need for debates. It would all be over.
I’m a Progressive Democrat who hates the pandering to lowly no good Centrist Democrats
If Warren were a man, she would be Richard Cordray.
The guy who *checks notes* just lost an election in Ohio.
It'd be cool if that were to happen but we all really know the Republicans will hold up any meaningful legislation in the courts where Trump-appointed judges will whittle away until the legislation is nothing but words on paper.
And that's how it'll go every time the D's are in power for the next 50 years
Cordray had great policy positions and a background as an academic and consumer rights watchdog against banking abuse. Very similar to Warren.
He struggled to connect with union voters, despite his policy positions, because he was not a strong campaigner and did not appear authentic trying to wear a yellow hard hat at campaign rallies.
He had enough problems with style that he could not overcome with substance.
Contrast him with Sherrod Brown, who was a natural at every union hall, or Barack Obama who auto workers loved.
. . . or Debbie Stabenow if you are looking for female examples of Midwestern candidates who can rally the union vote.
Warren hasn’t shown a real ability to connect with the labor vote in the Midwest.
Thanks for making that irrelevant post less irrelevant to me. I'll never get Biden Stans. Nothing about him is remotely enticing except for name recognition.
Or, Ohio isn’t the same it was in 2008 and 2012, and something has been awakened/reinvigorated within the rural areas.
It's weird that you think Ohio is even remotely indicative of ant other part of the country. Ohio is a lost cause because even people who will lose their jobs because of Trump will still back him, just like Indiana.
There is a way to 270 without Ohio, and the sooner Dems realize Ohio is pointless they can focus on states that matter.
This whole debate started by me noting that Biden is plodding along in front in the polls solely because he spent 8 years with Obama and none of the other candidates seem to be able to seize the spotlight.
Minnesota is more of a swing state (unfortunately) than Ohio in 2020. Objectively. For the same reasons Ohio is now lost: Whites being scared of those different from them/losing unearned economic superiority.
Because early polls are almost always name recognition. I would pay more attention to the fact that his numbers aren't really rising and other people are moving up. Biden is probably at his ceiling and eventually the more he talks the more people will see he is a terrible candidate based on the mandate of the 2018 election. The voter base is younger, more progressive and female.
Throwing another old white man out there because he is an old white man is stupid, so of course that is what Dems will do. They are incapable of anything else.
Ohio posters sometimes seem less inclined to realize the bell has been rung in Ohio and there's no unringing it.
Two trends are impacting Ohio politics.
First, the formerly blue counties in SE Ohio along the river have turned deep red. That is trouble, but those counties are in population free fall. From 1980-2000, the Steubenville/Wheeling metro area lost a higher percentage of its population than any other statistical area tracked—literally dead last in the country.
Those five counties voted blue for years, but flipped deep red from 2004-2016.
They’re dying though. There is no real political gain in the future that hasn’t already been made.
Second, the Columbus and Cincinnati metro regions are becoming very blue. Both metro areas are where all the growth in Ohio is occurring, between 8-14% decade over decade since 1980.
From 1968-2004, Republicans won Hamilton county (Cincinnati) in every election. From 1968-1992, it was the same for Franklin county (Columbus).
The Democrat has won every year since. Clinton carried Franklin at 60% and Hamilton at 53%.
These areas are growing and flipping blue.
Sure, but those trends are 2-3 election cycles from putting Ohio back in play as a true EC swing state.
I live here. I’ve worked political campaigns here. I disagree.
Winning Ohio is overrated. The Democrats only need to win Indiana, New Jersey, Maryland and two of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin/Iowa/Nebraska to have a successful election season. Then take a nice holiday in Orlando.
I'm so so sorry.
Kidding aside, thank you for the insight. I am an optimist and think, with some favorable breaks, that AZ and soon TX will become coin tosses to slight lean D. OH is not irredeemable. R's are fucked in the future and their only sustaining hope is radical gerrymandering.
Dems can win NE-2 but that's it.
If Ohio goes blue in 2020, it’s a bloodbath. That doesn’t make Ohio a bellwether or swing state. It’s well down the list, as the numbers and recent election results support. You should look beyond your experience to observe where Ohio sits relative to the rest of the country. This is national topic, or we’re having two separate discussions.
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. Clearly one of us does not understand demographic shifts. I want to be clear, that last sentence is referencing you, dump.
this has been gone over before but we keep talking around the issue. the parties started realigning themselves along racial liberal/conservative lines starting in '06, after '12 the GOP realized this was a losing fight long term so they decided to soften on immigration etc. Trump poured gasoline on it thinking there was enough white racial conservatives left he could pull it off, he was right due to a unique set of OTHER circumstances as well.
Ohio is not as educated and/or as diverse as many of its neighboring upper midwest states so it slipped away very quickly. Lots of white non-college educated voters there that are racially conservative. The shedding of GOP support in suburbs post '16 moved the Michigans/Wisconsins/Minnesota back to lean Dem status but Ohio went much further right. The opposite of this is states like Virginia that went from reliable red, toss up, to lock blue in a decade, many other states are on this trajectory. Trump smartly pushed all the chips in early on the opposite model.
If your argument is the pathway forward for Dems is putting up a racially conservative candidate to trim those non-college white voters margins and it'll outweigh the losses among racial liberals that's a discussion to be had. White males have an easier time selling themselves as racially conservative without abandoning completely the rest the base. The soft pedaling on "connects to union workers" stuff is the wrong topic.
Georgia was closer than Ohio last presidential election.
Texas, by all measures, is as much or more of a swing state for '20 than Ohio is.
This also makes the probability of the Dem winning by like 5-6 million votes and losing the election even likelier.
Texas would rather secede than go blue
Well guess what, I'm probably moving to Austin next August and I'm gonna start the gat damn revolution. I did check, voter registration deadline is Oct 4. Viva Texas or something. Don't fuck it up by being YangOrBust.
We’ve already gone through this. In 2020, it’s Florida, NC/VA, and the industrial Midwest.
VA went blue in 2016, so flipping FL (29) and NC (15) gets to 276.
Otherwise, it has to be an aggressive campaign in Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10). There are 64 at play there.
I’m fine with either
team everyone cool move to texas
it goes blue and the presidency is lost for the GOP for generations