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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Thoros of Beer, Feb 3, 2016.
It’ll be bama, Osu, Clemson, nd. But you’re right, it should just be
way worse: Everyone else
Would be interesting if combs is fired...
We figured out half of college football
Unfortunately our head coach won’t let someone else run the offense
Imagine trying to outscore Bama by throwing a lot and going fast instead of shortening the game and pounding the ball
Just think how much closer this game would be if Ryan Day was playing to avoid a blowout.
Guys, maybe no one was beating this team and there was no right way to try and do it
This game to me shows that NDs gameplan gave them the best shot at a potential upset.
Creating less possessions and keeping Bama offense on sideline was best option.
Our best players were our OL/RB and TEs. Our weakness was our QB and WR. Yet people on a message board with no coaching experience think our OC doesn't know what he's doing despite scheming up issues for Nick Saban the most defensive dominant coach in college football history.
I was ready to let it go but to come back and see again the same non sense over and over again is annoying.
I somewhat agree with this, however, you’re completely banking on them falling apart and turning the ball over, something they just don’t do.
Also I think we were the best physical match for Bama, qb and skill kill us.
Kelly achieved his goal in that regard.
Well actually people are human and the less chances you give them the more the odds are in your favor.
Or you can bank on Ian Book suddenly being able to make throws he hasn't been able to make against much lesser teams and talent.
Its really an easy concept to understand. The strategy is as old as time..when your facing better talent and teams you slow thr game down and lessen possessions. Even the playing field.
I disagree totally. Ball control keeps it closer but gives you a zero percent chance of winning.
Ohio State at least looked competitive for a quarter. But now they’re going to get blown out by more.
Id rather try to win and get blown out then concede the game from the start.
This makes zero sense. ND was down 21-7 in the 3rd Q midway through with the ball in Bama territory and a guy open. Our QB who we want to all give more opportunities to throw down field under threw the ball. Shocker let's do that more
On top of that we don't have the QB or WRs.
We werent going to score 21 points running ball control offense.
The game is literally over at that point if you play ball control.
This is a good point, you limit their points and you have to make less plays to stay competitive.
The real question is should OSU be allowed in the playoff anymore if this holds?
And if you play ball control, you need more plays where you win the play in order to drive the ball down the field. There’s less sustainability there as the lesser talented team.
You need chunk plays against this Bama defense to score more than a couple touchdowns. And you’re not going to out-score them with a couple touchdowns.
We would’ve needed to convert roughly 20 3rd downs vs Alabama to win with our gameplan.
The math didn’t make any sense as the lesser team.
Ehh, you limit their points and hope you can hit on a few chunks. We just never bothered with the chunks. Tempo doesn’t make those more likely.
Ohio State hit about 15 chunks plays against Clemson due solely to tempo
This is assine. With less plays overall you need to make more plays? Less sustainability like sustainability is more plays winning. How many games do you see where lesser talented teams compete for 2 quarters but as the game goes and plays begin to stack up the better team pulls away. Same principle. Or how many times do you hear people say the longer this stays close the better chance the of the upset. It's really simple to understand.
The issue ND had is they didn't execute early. If they had remained a bit closer earlier it would have been praised as a smart plan.
Fair, but that is also their personality, it is not ours.
Its simple math probability
Bama’s offense doesn’t require a lot of plays to score in bunches, so this idea that you play field position or try to keep them off the field isn’t valid. They’re going to score and score fast, and they’ll do it with long fields. It’s happened against us and everyone else they’ve played this year. Giving them less chances doesn’t matter when they score touchdowns 95% of the time regardless of the team they’re playing against, the clock they’re up against, or the length of the field.
Offensively, if you’re trying to beat them with ball control you need to make an outrageous amount of positive 3 to 6 yard plays. And you need to convert over and over on 3rd or 4th down. Our running offense wasn’t good enough this year to do that. Our running offense was actually wildly overrated this year, per all advanced statistics. We were an above average running team at best, and quite bad against the better teams we played. Expecting us to basically Navy our way to victory was never going to happen.
That 8 minute touchdown drive we scored against Bama could not be relied upon to happen 5 times in any football game. And you need to score at least 5 touchdowns to beat this Bama team.
You have to get deeper with your math probabilities to understand what type of football Nick Saban has created.
He knows it’s impossible for a team to convert 75%+ 3rd downs against his defense. So he’s all for allowing teams try to get into constant 3rd downs against them. His defense gets off the field on 3rd downs. His defense is most vulnerable on 1st and 2nd downs.
Nobody has beaten them in a ball control game in literally a decade. Every single team that has given them any sort of trouble has run tempo.
I think both of you guys are right.
i don’t think IrishLAX2 is saying to just sling it all over the field, Nd just needed to show more creativity on 1st and second down. A few more shots, maybe a couple more creative screens. Some of the things that would take them by surprise to create some chunk.
and obviously Robdog_5 is also right that you can’t just reinvent yourself à la Charlie weis let’s run the spread option with the qb who’s name is escaping me.
but look at what sark is doing, Mac jones doesn’t throw the ball downfield a lot but sark calls plays to mess up with the d and confuse them. Obviously Nd doesn’t have the players to consistently do that but you can’t tell me that the play calling wasn’t overly simple and conservative during that game.
Ok. So if they score 95% of the time is it easier for ND to score 100% of the time 4x or 10x?
So if you have more plays and offensive series isn't it obvious you may need to win a lot more 3rd downs?
Am I in the twilight zone? Does ND have Tate, Floyd, Fuller out there at the same time?
Let's do this. Let's go back and watch the film and you tell me what Rees was or wasn't doing with formations/matchups and playcalling. Lets analyze Bama and tell me what they were running on defense and how Rees with NDs players should have attacked it
Here is the math Saban creates
A lot more talent and depth at almost every position.
jesus dude, you need to calm down. I am not looking for an argument tonight, sure you know football more than me. Should I never talk about it because I don’t have the full 22?
I just liked some of his calls and hoped he would throw a few more wrinkles in there....but I will shut up and let you tell me what to think
I just get annoyed with this thinking that Rees isn't a good OC. He did exactly what he should have this year. He played to the strength of his team. His OL/TE and RB. Like is isn't hard to understand but people think he should have magically made a fast break no huddle group out of a pound it offense. If you want to get mad at BK and staff for not recruiting/developing at QB/WR then I'm all about that
We would have beat the shit out of OSU on both sides of the ball, but Justin Fields would have outplayed Ian Book by enough to beat us
I never said that, he was very good this year and should only get better. He always has a few very very good calls, like that screen to tyree, that was very good. I would like a few more wrinkles added to a successful play but that’s based on my feeling after watching the games and not really anything scientific.
i sometimes feel like he doesn’t use a successful play to setup another one with the same look. Not sure if this makes sense. Would you agree? I also understand that some players can’t execute. Book was awful at throwing a screen and I bet rees will use that more with a qb that can do it. He had some solid designs.
There are some positives and negatives in my opinion of our offense this year. Its hard for me to judge based on one season because he was given a set of cards and I thought he played them well. Will a different group of players change it next year? We'll see.
Creates formation issues with unbalanced and hard edges. (4 man surfaces and TE/Wing and cut splits)
Set a physical up front run scheme
Not afraid to use under center
Lack of vertical passing game consistently
Hey so, uhhhh....has Marcus Freeman signed his contract yet?
It’s your head coach that was adamant about your defensive scheme, not your defensive coordinator.
Hmmmm. Don't you dare.
Ironically looking at ESPN way to early top 25 and Cincy is ranked higher than ND right now
This is a guy we need Freeman to be all over. He's from Florida so my guess is he will stay down there but regardless this is the type of guy we could use
Undergrad transfer...I have been reading Nd doesn’t really do those
Ya figured as much then maybe he maybe a target
Well, uh... We beat Clemson because Book took chances throwing down field to guys who were decently covered. He made throws he simply refused to make in the ACCCG and POG. This has been discussed and everyone agrees. Bamas secondary clearly had holes and Book never gave our receivers a chance.
That's nice and all. But only because Saban was embarrassed we pushed them around up front. I don't think that score holds up if he kept throwing it.
From everything I've read and seen, ND called a decent chunk of pass plays with WRs running deeper routes. There were opportunities to make throws without taking huge risks. Outside of a couple games, Book seemed to not see these or just refuse to throw them, even if there was a window
I can't really fathom why. I'm sure it wouldn't have made a huge difference, but i can't help but wonder what, if any, difference having a full slate of spring practices would have done. You'd like to think it would have just given even more time for Book and the receivers to develop a bit more chemistry and trust.
I really can't quite believe that Book could play as he did vs clemson part 1, but revert back to to to timid play in the ACCCG & CFP
that's not true at all, it only appeared that way because ND played much better defense after the first quarter and ND was able to control the football better on offense after the first couple of series. ND started stopping the run MUCH better making the drives run longer on the Bama side as well and eventually they were able to make a couple of stops.
Mac Jones through the ball 4 times on the final drive (only 2 runs)
I actually believe they were not really willing to throw downfield after he almost got picked off on the first drive by Hamilton near the end zone (crazy good play btw by Hamilton). After that, it was mostly slants/in cuts/screens to stay away from Hamilton deep but they were super effective with those plays because they have Devonta Smith and a bunch of athletes.
ND had the right game plan. There is NO WAY ND could have scored 40 points against Bama with this team as its built and that's what it would have taken if we gave Bama 11 possessions instead of 8 (not counting the kneel down at halftime). Bama scored 31 points on 8 possessions (5 out 8) which is pretty freaking amazing when you consider what they just did to OSU on more possessions
ND needed 1 or 2 turnovers (the ND game was the only one where Bama did not have a turnover) or a special teams TD and 1 or 2 TDs on a broken play/deep shot to keep it close while slowing the game down. I'm pretty sure this was the game plan and the only way they could have beaten Bama. So if Hamilton makes the INT instead of the pass break up on their first drive/the Chris Tyree screens goes for a TD instead of 27 yards/Book makes the throw to Javon or makes a better pass to Mayer on the first possession after halftime then we might have a real game in the 4th quarter.
what I'm really trying to say is that if Book didn't play scared, we might have had a chance going into the 4th quarter :)
I think no matter what we did, we are 17 points worse than Bama. I can squint my eyes and see a path with to a competitive game how we played (pick on + side of the field and two trips to the red zone with no points) but everything had to break right which isn't going to happen.
If we played the more aggressive game plan, it's also highly unlikely that everything goes right and we probably still lose by 17+.
It's crazy to think that ND, or anybody should try to match Bama score for score. It's impossible. Ole Miss tried and gave up almost a hundy. The ND plan was correct, their execution wasn't great because even with ball control, you have to attempt to stretch the field. ND got behind the chains and it was over.