*Notre Dame* - We'll See You In Hell (Miami in August)

data has you -9.5 though

 

well, let’s Hope this data dude is wrong

 

Yeah that’s the data point I’m not fond of at the moment

Reeks of Bama 2012

 

At least we only have 10 days to get confidence instead of 45 or whatever

 

the data isn't wrong, but that doesn't mean the result will be OSU by 10. there's about a 21% chance ND wins. That's nearly five times the likelihood that Michigan had to beat OSU and we saw what happened

Texas was a yard away from a tied fourth quarter score and Texas isn't significantly better than ND is

we all know OSU is a great team but at the end of the day it's college kids chasing an oblong ball with blind people officiating it. lots could happen

 

That was a blown play

 

What data are you using? FPI has us at a 45% chance and Football Insiders 33%

 

yeah I was being an idiot a Little but I have been meaning to ask. How on earth can a 78% probability winning rate swing by 20 % on just a few plays. It seems to me like if that is the case the 78% was flawed to begin with? Not sure I am explaining well.

I guess it’s a 78% winning IF you stay the course.

 

I have my own models but sharp sports betting odds have significantly higher long-term predictive success than FI and certainly FPI. These odds are what I think IrishLax was getting at, since we had all talked about those narratives and the lines not moving the last few weeks

FPI/FI would be +122 and +203, respectively. you're +325. If FPI was right Vegas would be bankrupted every fall

 

Because football is a bit of a silly game to discuss too much in game probabilities even though I do it all the time. Anything can happen any play vs like basketball where the most that can happen is someone scores 3 points

T Henderson taking the screen 75 yards, Sawyer strip sack for 85 yards. All the other 115-120 plays of the game were probably pretty even, but those two made it a 14 pt game. We just need to be the team that gets those 2

 

is this something specific you're referring to?

A single play can swing expected win rate by 95%+ in theory

 

boy you're telling me, I make my living betting on it!

 

They already are because they still can’t figure out how shu keeps destroying them on the craps tables.

 

no. Just a general observation. I think I am not reading these things correctly. It is a prediction based on the data you know and assuming It Will keep trending that way, and if it doesn’t anymore the data swings. Probably makes the college game very hard to predict

 

What is your general take on the game early?

 

I'm sure this was covered and I missed it but does the stat keeper just give penalty yardage on a pass play to both the QB and wr? How does this stat line happen?

 

nope, it has nothing to do with trending any way. It's saying based exactly on what we know now, with the teams involved, here are the chances each team wins

Let's say you trust me right now that it's 79% OSU/21% ND

And gameday comes and ND wins the coin flip, defers and kicks off and it's a touchback and d I tell you it's still 79%/21%, you'd believe that, right? Nothing really has changed, why wouldn't it be 79%/21%?

Now what if instead OSU returns it for a TD? The 79%/21% wasn't wrong, but with new information (a 7-0 OSU lead) you probably wouldn't be surprised to hear that OSU is now more likely to win than they were before kickoff. Maybe 87%/13%. And if instead he fumbles and ND recovers at the 1 they certainly are in a better position than pre-kickoff. They might be up to 35% to win

 

funny you ask now becaue I was just rewatching the end of the game, I think It happened because of the back pass to allar on the last play and he then sailed the ball out so minus 3

 

suit him up Monday and dare the NCAA to do something

 

Gotcha, it’s real Time so It Makes sense Why It swings so much.

 

But wouldn't there still be a reception on the first catch?

 

Moore just before the last play was talking incredible shit to 5 from psu, signaling 0 with his hand lol

 

My bad, Warren caught the ball then swing it back and It was all latérals from there

so no catches but minus yards

 

I told you guys yesterday I thought UT/OSU was the third-biggest game of Notre Dame's season and I still believe that, if Texas had won I'd have you at 40% and OSU I had at 21%. Betting odds land right on that today 21% (+325/-400 implies about 21.2%). I don't think there's value in betting either team at -110 if the spread stays between -7.5 and -9.5. I'd take OSU -7. I'd take ND +10.

With the caveat that no team is especially good this year compared to previous years' top teams, OSU is really really good. Very well rounded and elite in a lot of sectors. Both teams are explosive on both sides of the ball and create big plays. There's a level of variance to big plays that should keep you guys excited, you just have to hope they go your way. The top thing to look at imo is ND's early down success rate. It's kind funny considering how great these two teams are that their two biggest weaknesses are inverses. ND gets behind the sticks more often than they should and have third and longs frequently. OSU is in the bottom half of the country in forcing third-and-longs.

I think you're more likely to lose than win but if I were to have to pinpoint one thing to look at it's ND's offense avoiding third and long against a team that doesn't force many

 

Lateral yardage

 

not missed, laterals count as receiving yards but not catches

 

Good post and all makes sense.

I’d say that two things that get me excited from what I saw in PSU was -

1. 3 passing game explosives to 3 different players. Both defenses are elite (PSU or OSU) so getting some explosives in the passing game against an elite defense I think really raises our ceiling as something not totally built into the numbers

2. as referenced on this page, no WR catches all day by PSU. It’s obviously apples and oranges between us and them, but we’re not gonna have this cover 2 zone for Emeka to sit in like he did vs Texas

 

Confirmed. I have also referenced my data and have determined that if you keep OSU's receivers to 0 catches and -3 yards that you will likely win

 

House is ready.

 

You know who would look really good doing this? All of our RBs

 

I want a fake qb draw and wheel route to love (if healthy ) or Williams

 

don’t have twitter, did he say anything after ND won?

 

I really hate that man

 

no idea, just funny that he got owned by the context thing

 

Or just have him put on someone else’s jersey and pretend to be them. I think that would probably work if everyone kept their mouth shut.

 

Maybe we can do this with Kyle Hamilton and Quentin Nelson too

 

Another one

 

this Guy looks higher than me in 5 hours

 

Guy is a true jr. Crazy

 

Which USC we talking about

 

California.

 

so he fucking sucks? great.

 

lol yea he’s like a guy you hope can give you 5 - 10 snaps when you are up 2 scores.

 

The dephtiest of pieces. I Hope his dad contributes to the nil funds

 

USC fans seem to think he’s not bad, he’s undersized and plays fast

he’s got 2 or 3 years to develop- helps fill the hole in the recruiting misses from that class

 

you lost me at usc fans think