Off-Track Horse Racing; Belmont 7/8 Stars and Stripes Picks

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by Gallant Knight, May 8, 2017.

  1. Gallant Knight

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    Wow just found this channel on my ATT cable. This is dangerous. I think I bet one every race from like 2-6:30PM yesterday.
     
  2. DuffandMuff

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    Not even going to try and see if I have that.
     
  3. Gallant Knight

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    I'm going to pick some winners at Belmont tomorrow ok I'll post them here
     
  4. Gallant Knight

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    Race 1: maiden special weight for fillies. Tough call between the 2 Cozzy Spring and the 7 Frost Wise here. The 2 has improved each race but was well beaten in his last race by 6 lengths. The 7 has one bad race but it was on turf so I'm throwing that out. If the 7 can get into the gate without expending too much energy, which has been a problem in the past, it should take this one. Also like castellano in the irons for the 7 vs Davis for the 2
    250 on the 7 to win. 20 exacta box with the 2 and 7

    Race 2: allowance race a mile on the turf. This also looks to be a two horse race between the 1 Air Vice Marshal and the 8 Cerise's Prince. The 1 is a morning line 4/5 favorite. Has only raced in the US once and hasn't run on the turf in the US but bred for the turf with a handful of races in the U.K. Horse is a big favorite because some dumbass paid 2.2mm for it at the Keeneland yearling sale but it only has 90k in earnings. Also has some fast works in the morning. I'm going to take a shot on the 8 at 5-1. Broke his maiden last out and was second in the previous race, both of which were a mile on the turf at Belmont. A step up in class for sure but I'm not a believer in the 1
    175 on the 8 to win.

    Race 3: 6 furlong non graded stakes race for New York fillies and mares with a 100k purse. Only five entries and the 4 and 5 are longshots. The 1 Absatootly won its last out a similar non graded stakes race at the same distance. Has an awkward trip and gets Jose Ortiz aboard today which should be a significant upgrade. Concerning the 1 showed his second to last start out and weakened in the drive but it was a 7 furlong race, and three races ago he killed weaker competition at 5.5 furlongs. The 2 Clipthecouponannie is an even money pletcher horse and it's easy to see why this horse is favored. She has won five of six starts with her only loss being a grade 3 stakes race at a longer distance. There is no way those horse stays at even money at the post it will be more like 3/5. The 3 horse is a 3/1 morning line but has only raced once this year and got 7th in a similar race six months ago. No thanks. The 1 and 2 both won similar non graded stakes races last time with identical times. I'm going to take a shot with the 1 and go against the pletcher horse at what I'm guessing will end up being a 7/2 price.
    150 on the 1 to win
     
    #4 Gallant Knight, Jun 17, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2017
  5. Gallant Knight

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    Race 4: maiden special weight 1 1/16 miles on her turf. 3 year olds get an 8 pound weight advantage which is pretty significant. The 7 Now in a Drive and the 8 Sentry come out of a race at Keeneland in April at the same distance where the 7 beat the 8 by a nose to show. The 7 has another race under its belt at a mile on the turf and placed. These are the two co favorites on the morning line. There are two Chad Brown entries which is a little concerning but the 10 has never run a mile and the 5 is a first time starter. The 7 Street Review is interesting as an 8-1 longshot. Got off to a terrible start in its only race at a mile on the turf in an 11 horse field and rallied to get fourth with no lasix. If this horse was first time lasix it would be my play of the day. I think the 7 is the play here. Beat the 8 in a similar race in April, came back and got second in a race since then, and its recent works are much better than the 8. Ortiz on the 8 is scary but Rosario is no slouch.
    300 on the 7 to win.

    Race 5: Allowance race 7 furlongs on the turf for NY filles and mares. Big field. The two cofavorites come out of the same race where the 11 Majestic Bloom placed while the 3 Itsinthestars had a bad start and rallied for a good fourth a length back from the 11 post. The 3 post position is going to help out the 3 horse a lot in this race it won't have to rally as much. The 3 has a lot of experience as a six year old mare and is getting a weight break with an apprentice jockey who rode her last time out. The third choice 5 Electrified hasn't raced this year, only won her maiden and got DFL last time out at this distance. Fourth choice the 7 Addictive was bought for 825k as a two year old, won her maiden, and has got dead last last two races. I'm going to take a shot with the 3 and hope the improve post position and second race at this distance will be the difference.
    200 on the 3 to win.

    Race 6: for fillies and mares beaten claimers going six furlongs on the turf. The favorite is the 2 horse Deltalina. She has only raced once this year and it was at this distance and got DFL after being in second at the turn. Not very encouraging. The 4 Veil Dance and the 8 May Flowers are coming out of the exact same race from last month. The 8 placed with Ortiz and the 4 got 4th. The 8 has got 2nd twice this year at the same distance drawing inside pole positions and gets some relief this time out which should help her run the race she wants. The 5 Mojos Queen only win was at gulfstream at a shorter distance with Gaffalione in the irons and the 7 Treatherlikestar has missed the board in all five of her races this year. I'm riding with Ortiz and the 8 horse hoping this new pole position will help her get win #2.
    350 on the 8 to win
     
    #5 Gallant Knight, Jun 17, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2017
  6. Gallant Knight

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    Race 7: 6.5 furlong claiming race. The 3 Yellow Chips has Ortiz in the irons and is a former graded stakes place horse and placed at Gulfstream in January at the same distance. This is a serious drop in class from 62.5k claiming price to 32k. The 2 Too Fast to Pass is working with his third trainee this year and has raced at this distance a bunch with not much to show for it. The 5 Rockford and the 6 Gentrify are coming out of the same race in April where the 6 beat the 5 by a nose. The 6 tried a mile step up in class to 40k claimers and got DFL. I'm going to take the class dropper 3 with Ortiz here.
    350 on the 3 to win

    Race 8: allowance optional claiming fillies and mares 1 1/16 miles on the turf. The 1 Now Power is coming off a long layoff after racing a bunch in 2016. The post might suit her as she likes to lead in all of her races at the same distance. The 2 Penjade has a tough post as a closer but she won her last race after a long layoff and has raced in stakes races before. But she got second at the same distance last year second race after a similar layoff from the inside. The 4 Squeezs has won both her races but hasn't raced in a year. The 7 Puka is a class dropper who lost her last race by a nose at a longer distance. I'm going with the 2 in her second race after a long layoff.
    150 on the 2 to win

    Race 9: laying off this maiden claiming race
     
    #6 Gallant Knight, Jun 17, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2017
  7. Gallant Knight

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    Lol they canceled the rest of the card. +$93 on the day
     
  8. Gallant Knight

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    Santa Anita 1: 5 Who's Hot 150 to win 150 to show

    Santa Anita 2: 11 Jabber Now; only course to run the SAX downhill turf course. 250 to win

    Santa Anita 3: 2 microrithims; Baffert horse working fast a f in the mornings 175 to win
     
    #9 Gallant Knight, Jun 17, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2017
  9. The Hebrew Husker

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    Going to the track tonight for live racing, anything nationally I should bet while I'm there?
     
  10. Gallant Knight

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    Not sure about tonight. Tomorrow is a loaded day of racing at Belmont
     
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  11. Gallant Knight

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    The Hebrew Husker

    Prairie Meadows Race 8- 100k stakes

    My picks for this one are 6, 1, 7

    If the 1 is 8-1 I would bet it but I think the 6 is the horse to beat. Might try a 6-1 exacta. If you want a trifecta mine would be 1,6 / 1,6,2,7 / 1,2,4,7

    1 Mywomanfromtokyo- really like this horse and I like the draw inside. The horse is fast and should be able to take advantage of the saved ground on the rail. Won 4 of 6 races and placed in the other two. Also love the price at 8-1 but can't imagine it will go off at that number

    2 Walkabout-has run in graded stakes races but the purses were similar to this race. Got dead last 3 weeks ago. No thanks

    4 Danzatrice-I have no idea why Mike Smith is riding this horse. It's got dead last in 3 of last 4 races and won a 26k purse at lone star.

    6 Divine Elegance-this might be the pick. Fastest horse in the field and has won stakes races at this distance before and hung in a grade 1 race at oak lawn earlier this season.

    7 Brooklynsway- won its last race at this distance and level but it was a year ago and has not raced since. The horse is fast but I don't like the long layoff.

    Can throw out:

    3 Cleverness-big step up in class and hasn't impressed lower on the ladder

    4 Divine Dutchess- horse is a winner but not at this level

    8 Ruby Sioux-another huge class jump. Won't it's last race at this distance but not impressively and purse not even half as big
     
    #12 Gallant Knight, Jul 7, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2017
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  12. Gallant Knight

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    Belmont Stars and Stripes Day 7.8.17

    I'm going to Sam Houston Race Park for some simulcast action tomorrow afternoon. This card is loaded. The stakes races will be on NBC.

    Race 1 Maiden Special Weight; seven furlongs (turf); $75,000 purse

    Thinking 3, 6, 7, 2

    1 Wage Acceleration. Chad Brown trainee. Bought for $250,000 as a yearling. The only four year old in the field so has a seven pound weight disadvantage. First time on the turf and has never run 7 furlongs. Doesn't like to pass horses. Pass.

    2 Special Intention. Bought for $500,000 as a yearling. Never raced. Had some decent works at Delaware Park recently. Can't be a good sign that someone spends half a mil on a horse and it doesn't race until now.

    3 Master Merion. Jose Ortiz riding. Wesley Ward trainee who is good on the turf. Ran five times, hit the board in all five races with four seconds. Outkicked late in a 7.5 furlong race three back, expended too much energy in the middle of a mile race two back and showed, led most of the way last race before being out kicked down the stretch in a six furlong race. I think 7 furlongs is the right distance for him.

    4 Le Pin. Todd Pletcher trainee. Race once 7 months ago seven furlongs on the dirt. Led half the race then weakened to show and hasn't raced since. Works not that encouraging. Ireland bred probably should have been on turf from the start. Will probably pass.

    5 Morocco. Bill Mott and Jose Lezcano. Bought for $375,000. Raced 8 times and only two seconds. Doesn't like to win. Last start was a mile on the turf and led at the 1/8 pole but flattened to lose. I supposed it's a good sign they have entered this hose in a claiming race but 0/8 isn't great.

    6 Storm Team. Four races with two places. Didn't hit the board in his last race. Irad Ortiz. Doesn't like the pass horses. Big favorite last race at Belmont and got fifth.

    7 Winning Element. Weakened in all of his races. But first time lasix. Hmm.

    8 Beltany. Only race got 4th six furlongs on the dirt.

    9 Newman. No

    10. Silberado. No.
     
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  13. Gallant Knight

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    Race 2 Allowance Optional Claiming (40k)1 1/16 mile (turf); $67,000 purse

    Fillies and mares foaled in NY state

    I like the 7 the most out of this group. Has beaten a lot of the other horses in this field this year and likes to hit the board.

    Going 7, 5, 6, 8

    1 Weather Girl. Hasn't hit the board this year. Had success at lower levels in 2016. The stronger of the pair

    1A Free N Clear. Has been DFL three of last four races. Not that excited about this paired entries.

    2. Barrel of Dreams. Beaten by the 1A in her last start. Has had success at lower levels.

    3. Sugar Mags. Beaten by the 1A and 2 last start, hasn't hit the board this year.

    4. Iron Mizz. Pletcher and Rosario. Run in a bunch of non graded stakes races. 200k in career earnings. Every time this horse has won or hit the board it has been less than a mile and only one good race on the turf and it was six furlongs.

    5. Bonita Springs. Jose Ortiz on board. Has hit the board in her last two starts at this distance and level. Won one race and was third in another where the two horses who beat her were favored. Has a weight advantage over the older mares.

    6 Khaleesi Kat. Beat the 1A, 2, 3 and 5 in her last start when she showed. Won three starts back at this distances. Third choice on the morning line.

    7 Bareeqa. Experienced mare who has hit the board in 70% of her starts with 5 wins. Finished ahead of Khaleesi Kat last start by a head. Likes to come from off the pace so good pole position.

    8 Selenite. Horse was claimed last start after placing in a similar race 6 weeks ago with a lot of these horses in the field. I suppose it's the morning line favorite because it's been racing in stakes races but they are low level stakes with 50k purses. Claimed for 40k, laid off when a lot of these other horses raced, and back in for a tag in an optional claiming race when only one other horse is. Not a good sign.
     
    #14 Gallant Knight, Jul 7, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2017
  14. Gallant Knight

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    Race 3 Maiden Special Weight for two year olds; 5.5 furlongs; $75,000 purse

    Don't like these races very much. A bunch of first time starters. But jesus there has to be an easier way to break your maiden than I'm this group. I think this is going to be a close race between the 2 and 8.

    8, 2, 1, 4

    1 Mad Munnys. Had some blazing fast times in the morning. Bought for 85k as a yearling and 130k as a two year old. 10-1 morning line. The rail might be a good spot for this colt.

    2 Base Command. Ok this horse is fast as fuck. Bought for $500k as a yearling. 7/2 morning line but will be more like 2-1 final.

    3 Fixedincome Larry. DFL in his last work. Hasn't run very fast in the mornings.

    4 Roaming Union. Shipping up from Monmouth. Mike Smith aboard who seems like he wins every race he starts. Has had some good times in the mornings in NJ. Worked from the gate three times.

    5 Snapper Sinclair. 30k yearling and 180k as a two year old so whoever was ducking with this horse last year was doing something right. Works in the AM not very impressive. Irad Ortiz and Asmussen.

    6 Shangroyal. 400k yearling purchase. Only horse in the field who has started before. Got fourth in a 4.5 furlong race at Churchill by six lengths. Not that encouraging

    7 Thunders Honor. First time starter. $300k yearling. I like that it has worked from the gate before.

    8 National Flag. Pletcher and China Horse Club. 600k yearling. Owner and trainer who are en fuego this year. Works from the gate are blazing and works without it are whatever. This horse must like to run.
     
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  15. Gallant Knight

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    Race 4 Starter Allowance; one mile (turf); $50,000 purse for fillies and mares

    Liking the paired entry a lot here. Don't like the second and third choice horses here on the outside post positions much at all.

    1, 6, 4, 5

    1 Desert Duchess. Paired entry is the morning line favorite. Broke her maiden in New Orleans earlier this year and it looks like the light bulb came on with a win place and show in next three starts. Hit the board five times this year with two wins. Claimed two starts back and got a third at a mile and 1/16 under her new owner. Like that she is protected again.

    1A Lillies Answer. Other half of this entry also likes to hit the board. Only one win at a lower level claiming race at Gulfstream but has lost last few by less than a length. Liking this pair.

    2 Tiz Twice. Won two claiming races at aqueduct last year. Claimed and then new trainer doesn't start her for seven months and when she comes back it's at a shorter distance and she gets DFL. Something's not right,

    3 Munchkin Money. Only win was a maiden claimer and hasn't raced this year. No thanks.

    4 City Section. Took sixteen (!) starts to break her maiden. Since then she has placed and won again in claiming races. A step up in class to allowance company but maybe this horse has figured out how to at least his the board.

    5 Flying Point. Horse only has one start as a four year old but won its first maiden claiming race. Interesting.

    6 Believe Indeed. Hit the board 4/6 times this year. 3 wins in 16 starts. Won two races back beating the 1 by a head at 1 1/16. 1 led the whole way so that last 1/16 may make a difference here. And then was beaten by the 1 last start. If this horse stays at 8-1 I could be tempted.

    7 Queenofthechannel. Won its maiden and then a claiming race and hasn't done much since then. 1A beat her pretty good two starts ago and last start was 80-1. No thanks

    8 Kitty Madness. Got fifth in claiming race City Section won. Has never hit the board in allowance company. Won a claiming race last start out,

    9 Romantic Music. Not sure why this horse is 4-1 on the morning line. Has run in a graded stakes race but didn't do well. Only win was maiden and claiming race with a 22k purse in Tampa.

    10 Ten Penny Princess. Only one start this year and lost to the 1.
     
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  16. Gallant Knight

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    Race 5 Allowance Optional Claiming 62,500; 1 1/16 (turf) 80k purse

    Start of the pick 6.

    will use the 2 and 5 in the pick 6.

    2, 5, 6, 1

    1 Mighty Mo. only one race this year and just missed hitting the board. Horse has mostly run in stakes races. Won three starts back. Only won twice. Rail might suit him because he is the speed horse.

    2 Wicked Freud. Won two starts back and then missed the board in a stakes race. Gaffalione aboard who is absolutely on fire. Horse likes the close and Gaffalione likes to hand ride home hard. Really hope this stays at 12-1.

    5 Roman Approval. 9 wins from 41 lifetime starts. Second choice on the morning line. Run in a bunch of graded stakes but never won any of them. In for a 62.5k tag. Horse almost always wins or places at this level and gets his dick punched in stakes races. Guessing he will be 3/2 final line.

    6 Toughest Ombré. Won a similar race a year ago and hasn't hit the board since in moderately more expensive races. Mike smith aboard.

    7 Arghad. Won its maiden, a cheap allowance at Gulfstream and hasn't hit the board since. Smoked by the 5 two starts back.

    8 Doctor Mounty. Lost by 23 lengths in only start this year.

    9 Changewilldoyagood. No chance.

    10 Whatawonderflworld. Won a stakes race in Florida a year ago. Second in only start this year at 7 furlongs.

    11 Turbo Street. Hasn't hit the board in the US.
     
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  17. Gallant Knight

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    Race 6. 400k Stakes! One mile for three year olds

    Will be using the 2 and 5 in the pick 6. If battalion runner goes off at like 4-5 I'll put some money on the 5 at like 7--.

    2, 5, 3, 4

    1 Tale of Silence. 20-1 morning line. Only two wins and has never hit the board in a stakes race. 100k career earnings. This is wishful thinking in a small field. Only 4K to enter and fifth gets 12k so maybe smart.

    2 Battalion Runner. Morning line 6/5 favorite. Pletcher horse. Four starts. Two wins two places. Won a 50k allowance at Gulfstream in February and second in the wood memorial in April. Smoking the Preakness winner cloud computing. This price might get even shorter.

    3 Practical Joke. Derby horse. Got fifth. Won two grade one stakes as a two year old. Hasn't won as a 3 year old. Might be tired from derby run up.

    4 True Timber. Only won his maiden. Fourth in the wood memorial and third in a minor stakes race at pimlico.

    5 Guiseppe the Great. Broke maiden at Keeneland earlier this year and then second in a grade 2 last month at Belmont behind American Anthem.
     
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  18. Gallant Knight

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    Race 7 350k stakes! 7 furlongs

    Going to single the 2

    2, 1, 7, 6

    1 Stallwalkin Dude. Hit the board in Last8 races save for a race in Dubai. Definitely a contender.

    2 Mind Your Biscuits. Won 2 of last 3 races including two grade 1 wins. 2m career earnings. Beaten Mor Spirit. Beat the 1 in Dubai.

    3 Fellowship. 3 wins in 16 starts. Hasn't hit the board in a stakes race in a year.

    4 Tommy Macho. Third in the Met Mile. Third in last race at similar distance. Won a minor stakes race in January,

    5 Awesome Slew. Beat the 4 by 3 lengths in January. Fourth in the Met Mile. Had success in Kentucky earlier this year but I don't think those races travel very well.

    6 Green Gratto. Doesn't like to hit the board at Belmont. Lost to the 1 last two times out.

    7 Unified. Won 4 of 6 races. Won only start at Belmont.
     
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  19. Gallant Knight

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    Race 8 Belmont Oaks. 1m purse. Grade 1. 3 year old fillies 1 1/4 mi

    I like the 11 I think. This is a tough race.

    11, 12, 2, 9

    1 Coasted. Has not won as a 3 year old.

    2 Beau Recall. Big step up in class. Added distance might suit her. Lost to sircat Sally last two out and she is a real horse.

    3 Violet Blue. Only won as a maiden.

    4 Grizzel. Big step up in class. Only won on the synthetic in the US.

    5 Key to My Heart. First time lasix. Big step up in class. Never raced in the US.

    6 Journey Home. Won 3 of 6 races. Huge step up in class.

    7 Uni. Chad Brown. Irad Ortiz. First time lasix. Only two wins and one was a maiden. No starts in the US.

    8 New Money Honey. Won 2/3 races as a 2 year old. Smoked in a non graded stakes at Step up in class. Might be a bad post because horse likes to lead.

    9 Dynatail. Won a 200k stakes race and led the whole way.

    11 Daddy's Lil darling. No clue why this horse is 10-1 morning line. This is probably the class horse of the field. 2nd to Abel Talsman in the Kentucky Oaks. Likes to close to added diapstance might suit her.

    12 Sistercharlie. Hasn't raced in the US. morning line favorite .
     
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  20. The Hebrew Husker

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    Thanks for the write ups. Didn't get to see them until now. Followed the last 2 races.
     
  21. Gallant Knight

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    Make any money last night?
     
  22. The Hebrew Husker

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    No, it wasn't great. My track here does live races 3 weekends a year.

    Last night only had 4 races, and the first two had six horses then seven horses so the odds were all short. It was pretty much a crap shoot.

    One race I took a 8-1 horse, 15min later he was 26-1 for some reason. The odds moving was crazy.
     
  23. The Hebrew Husker

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    I'm just getting into horse racing though a little bit, any pointers?
     
  24. Gallant Knight

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    I am too. I just started following it closely back in January.

    The Belmont Oaks is 20 minutes to post on NBC.
     
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