Just on a human level it sucks, unless Joe Manchin was in a tight race I doubt he'd even agree to do that at WVU. So much boils down to these coaches being more sophisticated PE teachers who sell their soul on a daily basis while we have to pretend they're upstanding honest citizens. I'm sure none of these guys wanna make recruiting more open and we'd see the lies they all tell on a daily basis.
was there a doubt in your mind that some angry midget from backwoods chucklefuck West Virginia was not just the essence of a massive bitch? just because you never saw him say the n-word in public, be a rampant adulterer, or try to replace his blood entirely with alcohol on a weekly basis in the local shithole college bar doesn't mean he was different than the rest of these rich jerkoff egomaniacs. coaches hate recruiting because they have to go kiss the ass of some teenager that could dictate whether they're employed in a few years, you better believe they all absolutely despise the fact these kids wield actual financial power now.
Pretty sure he’s been a registered democrat most of his life and was doing/saying the right things during the BLM movement, etc. So yea this heel turn was kind of surprising to a lot of us.
been screwing around this weekend with a SoS model/metric. Similar to how Fremeau does his; what would an average team's record be vs a given schedule, also a good team, and an elite team here are the top 40 hardest slates for an average team to navigate so an average team would project to go around 3.7-8.3 vs Georgia's schedule, 10th hardest in FBS. while Georgia is projected to go ~9.8-2.2 a win difference of roughly 6 Spoiler: The 25 Easiest P5 Schedules
The models are broken or too heavily dependent on factors that have changed in the sport in the last 10 years if this is what they are spitting out. Something is missing. Same thing was the case last year with SoS or advanced models and it just wasn’t true.
do you really think a team like Ohio or South Alabama, teams who are generally viewed in the #66 to #72 range by things like SP+, would win more than 4 games vs Georgia's schedule? remember, this is based on all of FBS, not isolating to the 68 P4 (or 70 P5) programs sure, the average P4 team (say Georgia Tech) would win more like 7 to 8 games (projection is 7.5-4.5) vs Georgia's schedule, but not the average FBS team
Something tells me the entire SEC doesn’t have the hardest schedules in the country and it’s because the power rankings are over inflating some metrics which haven’t been true in the last 5 years or so is my guess. They were wrong last year, probably gonna be wrong again.
that's fair. my power ratings (or SP+ or any other) could be off and given that drives the SoS models it produces inaccurate pictures of schedule difficulty
I don’t claim to know the answer, just seems like something is lagging in power rating adjustment with all the changes last few years and they aren’t matching reality.
if I had to guess, it's likely because many of these models build in recruiting/roster ratings and the SEC has 14 of the top 25 in talent acquisition (only Vandy and Miss St fail to recruit at a top 25 level) then add in the SEC/ESPN has gone all in with scheduling as many big games as possible so that is going to lead to 1 or 2 more games vs top 40ish teams than say the B1G and the models are going to account for all that for transparency on my model; I just adjusted the team rating to match the rating of an avg/good/elite team and then let the math work out like I do all other projections. and the average FBS team in my ratings is Mississippi St (#68 of 136 teams; roughly around a 0.00 power rating) it will be interesting to track over the course of the season as the ratings evolve. I'll definitely freeze them as we exit preseason and then do a comparison at year's end to see how much they change
also worth noting, when you look at these from a 20,000 foot view, the rank of said schedule is differences in a tenth of a win here and there overall, the average FBS team would win between 3.5 and 6 games vs the majority of P4 schedules. with the absolute hardest residing in the SEC and even then, it only dips 0.5 wins down to around 3 whether you have Arkansas's schedule (#2) that features ND, Tenn, A&M, Auburn, LSU, Texas, and Ole Miss or Ole Miss's schedule (#14) that has LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Florida they are both difficult but Arkansas's is slightly harder meanwhile, a schedule like UCLA (#19) features USC, Ohio St, Penn St, Nebraska, Indiana, and Washington. and this is on par with what Ole Miss has but probably a tad easier than what the Razorbacks will face
ono seems like a great front face but word is things have been falling apart behind the scenes between him and um for awhile
These 10 teams: Georgia, Alabama, Ohio St, Oregon, Texas, ND, Penn St, LSU, Clemson, Tennessee or the field to win the 2025 title...who you taking? using the same criteria for 2024, you would have had these 7 teams to choose from: Oregon, Georgia, Penn St, ND, Ohio St, Alabama, and Clemson (5 of the elite 8 in the CFP are listed here).
each of the 11 champs 2014-24 recruited at least 0.95 deviations above the mean for P5 programs and won at least 71% of their games over the previous 3 years all 10 listed for 2025 meet that requirement 85 teams met the requirements 2014-24 and 34 of them made the CFP
I would take the top 5 against the field this year and also every year until 2030. 6-10 clearly aren’t on the same level
as long as you have Bama/UGA/OSU you are likely going to be right 2 out of 3 years more often than not those 3 have won 7 of the 11 titles in the CFP era and 10 of the last 16 dating back to 2009. at least 1 of those 3 appeared in the title game in 12 of the last 16 years
some of the updated post spring Top 25s I have come across so far those 6 polls yield this composite top 25
Texas will have a good team but I am not getting the #1 ranking. We are replacing a lot of talented players and strong leaders. Obviously we have the talent to be really good but a lot of question marks remain with this team
yeah, but question marks remain for all the top contenders OSU, Texas, Georgia, and Oregon are in the 100s in returning production Bama and LSU have questions about their HC/staff Penn State is led by James Franklin and Clemson hasn't beat a legit contender from outside the ACC in 5 years there is no clear cut favorite without questions to answer. but Texas recruits at an elite level and the media can't help but slobber over a Manning at QB so here we are
ND has not had a guy who could throw a forward pass since Kizer even though they invented it but if Minchey or Carr can accomplish this goal they have a stew
typical ND, taking credit for other school's shit. ND did not invent the forward pass. St. Louis U, Wesleyan, and Yale are ahead of you guys in line for credit
I think you're confusing him with Constant. It's well known that his disdain for ND started when Knute Rockne stole his much younger girlfriend.