Official 2025 CFB Talk Thread: B1G, it just makes more

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Corch, Jan 21, 2025.

  1. Corch

    Corch Cup o coffee in the big time
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  2. Corch

    Corch Cup o coffee in the big time
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    Remember when Saban was "one of the good ones"?

     
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  3. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    Thankfully it seems every Bama poster on here that has spoke out about this has disowned him.
     
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  4. JGator1

    JGator1 I'm the Michael Jordan of the industry
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    Just on a human level it sucks, unless Joe Manchin was in a tight race I doubt he'd even agree to do that at WVU. So much boils down to these coaches being more sophisticated PE teachers who sell their soul on a daily basis while we have to pretend they're upstanding honest citizens. I'm sure none of these guys wanna make recruiting more open and we'd see the lies they all tell on a daily basis.
     
  5. Sir Phobos

    Sir Phobos be a hitter, babe
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    was there a doubt in your mind that some angry midget from backwoods chucklefuck West Virginia was not just the essence of a massive bitch? just because you never saw him say the n-word in public, be a rampant adulterer, or try to replace his blood entirely with alcohol on a weekly basis in the local shithole college bar doesn't mean he was different than the rest of these rich jerkoff egomaniacs.

    coaches hate recruiting because they have to go kiss the ass of some teenager that could dictate whether they're employed in a few years, you better believe they all absolutely despise the fact these kids wield actual financial power now.
     
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  6. Jax Teller

    Jax Teller Well-Known Member
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    Pretty sure he’s been a registered democrat most of his life and was doing/saying the right things during the BLM movement, etc. So yea this heel turn was kind of surprising to a lot of us.
     
  7. Jax Teller

    Jax Teller Well-Known Member
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    And also fuck him now.
     
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  8. Jax Teller

    Jax Teller Well-Known Member
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    I blame Mcafee for corrupting him.
     
  9. CB

    CB I'm the laziest person you will ever meet
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    16 weeks until week 0. who's excited?
    upload_2025-5-3_7-52-37.png
     
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  10. Irush

    Irush Well-Known Member
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    no I don’t remember ever thinking Saban was a good person
     
    #1060 Irush, May 3, 2025
    Last edited: May 4, 2025
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  11. ned's head

    ned's head Well-Known Member
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    I for one am looking forward to 16 weeks of gus shitposting until we hit reality

    [​IMG]
     
  12. CB

    CB I'm the laziest person you will ever meet
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    been screwing around this weekend with a SoS model/metric. Similar to how Fremeau does his; what would an average team's record be vs a given schedule, also a good team, and an elite team

    here are the top 40 hardest slates for an average team to navigate
    upload_2025-5-4_9-12-47.png

    so an average team would project to go around 3.7-8.3 vs Georgia's schedule, 10th hardest in FBS. while Georgia is projected to go ~9.8-2.2 a win difference of roughly 6

    upload_2025-5-4_9-27-7.png
     
    #1062 CB, May 4, 2025
    Last edited: May 4, 2025
  13. PSU12

    PSU12 The Grand Experiment
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    The models are broken or too heavily dependent on factors that have changed in the sport in the last 10 years if this is what they are spitting out. Something is missing. Same thing was the case last year with SoS or advanced models and it just wasn’t true.
     
  14. Goose

    Goose Hi
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    =if(CONF=SEC,rtg+69420)
     
  15. CB

    CB I'm the laziest person you will ever meet
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    do you really think a team like Ohio or South Alabama, teams who are generally viewed in the #66 to #72 range by things like SP+, would win more than 4 games vs Georgia's schedule?

    remember, this is based on all of FBS, not isolating to the 68 P4 (or 70 P5) programs

    sure, the average P4 team (say Georgia Tech) would win more like 7 to 8 games (projection is 7.5-4.5) vs Georgia's schedule, but not the average FBS team
     
  16. PSU12

    PSU12 The Grand Experiment
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    Something tells me the entire SEC doesn’t have the hardest schedules in the country and it’s because the power rankings are over inflating some metrics which haven’t been true in the last 5 years or so is my guess. They were wrong last year, probably gonna be wrong again.
     
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  17. CB

    CB I'm the laziest person you will ever meet
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    that's fair. my power ratings (or SP+ or any other) could be off and given that drives the SoS models it produces inaccurate pictures of schedule difficulty
     
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  18. PSU12

    PSU12 The Grand Experiment
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    I don’t claim to know the answer, just seems like something is lagging in power rating adjustment with all the changes last few years and they aren’t matching reality.
     
  19. CB

    CB I'm the laziest person you will ever meet
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    if I had to guess, it's likely because many of these models build in recruiting/roster ratings and the SEC has 14 of the top 25 in talent acquisition (only Vandy and Miss St fail to recruit at a top 25 level)

    then add in the SEC/ESPN has gone all in with scheduling as many big games as possible so that is going to lead to 1 or 2 more games vs top 40ish teams than say the B1G and the models are going to account for all that

    for transparency on my model; I just adjusted the team rating to match the rating of an avg/good/elite team and then let the math work out like I do all other projections. and the average FBS team in my ratings is Mississippi St (#68 of 136 teams; roughly around a 0.00 power rating)

    it will be interesting to track over the course of the season as the ratings evolve. I'll definitely freeze them as we exit preseason and then do a comparison at year's end to see how much they change
     
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  20. CB

    CB I'm the laziest person you will ever meet
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    also worth noting, when you look at these from a 20,000 foot view, the rank of said schedule is differences in a tenth of a win here and there

    overall, the average FBS team would win between 3.5 and 6 games vs the majority of P4 schedules. with the absolute hardest residing in the SEC and even then, it only dips 0.5 wins down to around 3
    upload_2025-5-4_9-59-9.png

    whether you have Arkansas's schedule (#2) that features ND, Tenn, A&M, Auburn, LSU, Texas, and Ole Miss or Ole Miss's schedule (#14) that has LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Florida they are both difficult but Arkansas's is slightly harder

    meanwhile, a schedule like UCLA (#19) features USC, Ohio St, Penn St, Nebraska, Indiana, and Washington. and this is on par with what Ole Miss has but probably a tad easier than what the Razorbacks will face
     
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  21. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
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  22. bricktop

    bricktop Well-Known Member

    is he a chud? why else would he walk away from michigan to UF?
     
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  23. Corch

    Corch Cup o coffee in the big time
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    NCAA comin
     
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  24. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
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  25. MG2

    MG2 I like to give away joy for free
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    #bet
     
  26. ned's head

    ned's head Well-Known Member
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    Did you see what they let sasse get away with? He can basically print his own money
     
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  27. CUgator

    CUgator Well-Known Member
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    More money and not having to live in Michigan?
     
  28. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    [​IMG]
     
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  29. gowolverines8

    gowolverines8 Well-Known Member

    ono seems like a great front face but word is things have been falling apart behind the scenes between him and um for awhile
     
  30. PSU12

    PSU12 The Grand Experiment
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    And the alternative is Florida? I think I’ll take Michigan
     
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  31. CB

    CB I'm the laziest person you will ever meet
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    These 10 teams: Georgia, Alabama, Ohio St, Oregon, Texas, ND, Penn St, LSU, Clemson, Tennessee

    or the field to win the 2025 title...who you taking?

    using the same criteria for 2024, you would have had these 7 teams to choose from: Oregon, Georgia, Penn St, ND, Ohio St, Alabama, and Clemson (5 of the elite 8 in the CFP are listed here).
     
  32. IrishLAX2

    IrishLAX2 So you’re telling me there’s a chance
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    Based on recent memory, I imagine “The Field” option has won less than 10% of the time in the past
     
  33. Jake Scott

    Jake Scott Well-Known Member
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    Not the field.
     
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  34. CB

    CB I'm the laziest person you will ever meet
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    each of the 11 champs 2014-24 recruited at least 0.95 deviations above the mean for P5 programs and won at least 71% of their games over the previous 3 years

    all 10 listed for 2025 meet that requirement

    85 teams met the requirements 2014-24 and 34 of them made the CFP
     
  35. PSU12

    PSU12 The Grand Experiment
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    I think I need to take the field. More specifically, the Virginia Cavaliers.
     
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  36. bricktop

    bricktop Well-Known Member

    I would take the top 5 against the field this year and also every year until 2030. 6-10 clearly aren’t on the same level
     
  37. CB

    CB I'm the laziest person you will ever meet
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    as long as you have Bama/UGA/OSU you are likely going to be right 2 out of 3 years more often than not

    those 3 have won 7 of the 11 titles in the CFP era and 10 of the last 16 dating back to 2009. at least 1 of those 3 appeared in the title game in 12 of the last 16 years
     
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  38. Tex

    Tex Week 0 Enthusiast
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  39. Tex

    Tex Week 0 Enthusiast
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    A fellow ball knower I see
     
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  40. CB

    CB I'm the laziest person you will ever meet
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    some of the updated post spring Top 25s I have come across so far
    upload_2025-5-5_13-18-52.png

    those 6 polls yield this composite top 25
    upload_2025-5-5_13-19-23.png
     
    #1090 CB, May 5, 2025
    Last edited: May 5, 2025
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  41. zachary

    zachary 32/m/colorado
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    Texas will have a good team but I am not getting the #1 ranking. We are replacing a lot of talented players and strong leaders. Obviously we have the talent to be really good but a lot of question marks remain with this team
     
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  42. CB

    CB I'm the laziest person you will ever meet
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    yeah, but question marks remain for all the top contenders

    OSU, Texas, Georgia, and Oregon are in the 100s in returning production
    Bama and LSU have questions about their HC/staff
    Penn State is led by James Franklin
    and Clemson hasn't beat a legit contender from outside the ACC in 5 years

    there is no clear cut favorite without questions to answer. but Texas recruits at an elite level and the media can't help but slobber over a Manning at QB so here we are
     
  43. 40wwttamgib

    40wwttamgib Fah Q, Ohio
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    you forgot ND
     
  44. CB

    CB I'm the laziest person you will ever meet
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    my bad. you don't have a QB who has proved anything yet

    I think we have now covered everyone lol
     
  45. ND has not had a guy who could throw a forward pass since Kizer even though they invented it but if Minchey or Carr can accomplish this goal they have a stew
     
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  46. Celemo

    Celemo Ban the Corner 3
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    typical ND, taking credit for other school's shit. ND did not invent the forward pass. St. Louis U, Wesleyan, and Yale are ahead of you guys in line for credit :themoreyouknow:
     
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  47. 40wwttamgib

    40wwttamgib Fah Q, Ohio
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    well yeah, you were there to see it :awesomeface:
     
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  48. Celemo

    Celemo Ban the Corner 3
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    that's Constant, but I'm old enough to remember Steve Beuerlein playing for y'all
     
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  49. repoocs

    repoocs Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet
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    I think you're confusing him with Constant. It's well known that his disdain for ND started when Knute Rockne stole his much younger girlfriend.
     
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  50. Upton^2

    Upton^2 blocked just a park away, but I can't really say
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    That girlfriend’s name?

    Lennay Kekua
     
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