Official Cryptocurrency Thread: Skepticism to Speculation to FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Nantucket, Jan 29, 2017.

  1. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    Pancake swap is the only one worth a shit it’s like their UNI
     
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  2. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Bailout Bro
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    I have a feeling a lot of the “eth killer” money will start to funnel back into eth
     
  3. Whammy

    Whammy Donde es
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    1inch and MKR are both interesting as well
     
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  4. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    Already happening
     
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  5. Brocktoon

    Brocktoon Well-Known Member
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    if I'm understanding correctly, EIP 1559 only stablizes gas costs but won't significantly lower them. That part won't happen until eth 2.0.

    I can get into and out of a yield farm on BSC for around a dollar. Ether is nowhere near that low. So as someone that likes to gamble on high risk farms, knowing I can get out quickly if things go south and only be out a few dollars versus the $30-40 it would have cost on eth is huge.
     
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  6. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Rumor disclaimer: I think there’s a chance Oracle announces a purchase this week. I recall hearing on a podcast that they have some disclosure or call this week, and a handful of people think they’re the next big company and/or that Ellison owns a bunch.
     
  7. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

  8. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member




     
    #12310 user15000, Mar 8, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2021
  9. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    “Increase significantly over time”



    "Not investing is the riskiest decision Risk is not an obvious concept. What’s commonly considered risky is frequently not. And vice versa. We are used to thinking that cash is risk free. But it’s not. It’s implicitly taxed by inflation at a small rate every year. "

    "When I realised how much brainpower goes into Bitcoin, I saw the future in the making."

    "The direction is clear: finance will be disrupted as surely as fossil fuels will be. The question is not if, but when."

    "Aker is the first major company in Scandinavia to allocate capital to bitcoin. We’re not going to be the last."

    "When investors with indisputable track records, like Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller, disclose that they have significant positions, everybody with a curious brain should pay attention. Companies like Tesla, Mass Mutual, Microstrategy, and Square have flagged positions, while Fidelity, Blackrock, Morgan Stanley, and other asset management behemoths are working to launch investment products for cryptocurrencies, which would make it easier for investors."
     
    #12311 user15000, Mar 8, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2021
  10. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member



    As an example of accelerating institutional Bitcoin adoption, NYDIG also announced today that life, annuity, and property & casualty insurers now own, in aggregate, more than $1 billion of direct and indirect bitcoin exposure facilitated exclusively by NYDIG, and held on NYDIG's secure, audited, and insured institutional custody platform.

    Decent list of investors:

    NEW YORK, March 8, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- NYDIG, a leading provider of technology and investment solutions for Bitcoin, today announced a $200 million growth capital round led by strategic partners Stone Ridge Holdings Group, Morgan Stanley, New YorkLife, MassMutual, Soros Fund Management, and FS Investments. Bessemer Venture Partners and FinTech Collective, who led the two prior funding rounds for NYDIG, were also significant participants.
     
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  11. Whammy

    Whammy Donde es
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    Are we in altseason? I think we’re in Altseason. My UNI and Link have been on a massive tear, ETH recovering nicely
     
  12. PaulKemp

    PaulKemp Well-Known Member
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    Someone else with more knowledge than me can correct me if I'm wrong here, but my understanding is that while you're seeing some Alts pop (some cases due to strong news like ETH/UNI and in others, new hype/breakout like NFT), we aren't in alt season yet. BTC Dominance BTC.D will plummet. I think the common sentiment right now is that BTC dominance will ebb and flow but steadily increase until we reach max FOMO, then alt season, then major correction into bear market. If history repeats/rhymes, that's Nov/Dec, but of course that can happy at any point.


    Your mom will be calling asking if $500 is a good entry for some coin that doesn't even exist yet is how you'll know know, is how it's been explained to me. I'm just starting my journey here in taking studying this stuff more seriously, so take my take with a massive grain of salt.

    Screen Shot 2021-03-08 at 3.23.17 PM.png
     
  13. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Personally, I don't think you're going to see an "altseason" that is similar to 2017. The narratives are far too different. Back then, it was "btc for payments/store of value/use it as the base currency to buy other cryptocurrencies." The ICO boom in 2017 drew a ton of retail money because it was the first exposure to crypto for a lot of people and they were looking for the "next bitcoin." "Let's use blockchain to solve ________, and here's my ICO."

    Fast forward to 2021. The talk in the space is much more focused on btc. Tesla bought $1.5b, which was big news that the average retail investor heard about. You can buy btc (and admittedly others) on Paypal, venmo, cash app, etc. Banks are putting out huge investment thesis reports recommending allocations to btc. Multiple public companies are using btc as a treasury reserve asset. There should be a bitcoin ETF this year. I think the serious FOMO hits when it becomes clear that multiple public companies in the SP500 are buying btc in bulk. If the price hits $100k, news coverage will be crazy. Same thing if a Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. makes a buy or a move in the space. When public companies are buying billions in btc, I have doubts that retail and everyone's grandma is going to be asking for advice on how to figure out LINK, defi, UNI, or anything similar. The barrier for entry is just far too high, and the entire narrative will be on btc.

    Do other coins have a chance to go up a ton in $ terms? I think 100% yes. Btc will raise the entire space. But good luck picking which ones those are. If you're planning to sell out of btc into alts anticipating an altseason, good luck timing that right and paying taxes on those transactions. And finally, I think that anticipating a "crash" similar to years' past and selling because of it comes with a substantial risk that no such crash occurs and you're stuck buying back at higher prices after paying taxes.

    This article explains a few of the points above in a bit more detail: https://danheld.substack.com/p/a-bitcoin-supercycle
     
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  14. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Bailout Bro
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    Just catching up but as long as human greed exists there will be another alt season. You could argue we've been in one since January but if you're thinking 2017-18 type alt season it will be towards the end of this bull run. If you look at alts vs bitcoin the party is just getting started.
     
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  15. Whammy

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    That’s despite all the awesome press and institutions for BTC...when retail discovers alts think it’s gonna go crazy. I, a retail person, am more interested in Alts than BTC
     
    #12320 Whammy, Mar 8, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2021
  16. PaulKemp

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    I agree with everything written by user15000 and the accompanying article by Dan Held (thanks btw), but it's really easy to imagine an end of run scenario where we're sitting at [insert high number] for [future current] BTC price while it's trading sideways, alts are catching up as they do, and all the really late arrivals dumping their money into alts, because the perception is there isn't any blood left to squeeze from BTC. BTC.D goes down (not BTC), because alts are skyrocketing, then we correct because everyone agrees we're overheated. BTC is mostly okay, but lots of alts get slaughtered or die completely. This time is different, but that's still the nature of price discovery in a cyclical market, right? Even if it's a super cycle, we should still the dance play out multiple times with more intensity each round

    Doesn't mean I'll play that game other than putting some pieces on the board here and there and hoping to strike big -- plus just some stuff I really like fundamentally

    Again, I'm a noob, and I'm mostly posting this to drive conversation and learn, not as advice. Also accepting applications for mentors. Thanks
     
  17. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

  18. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    I don’t think you’re necessarily wrong in anything in your post.

    I think people play the alt trading game to acquire more dollars. It’s a short-term game from what I’ve seen the last 4 years and comes with long-term risk. I’ve seen this show before: cryptokitties were a thing, ICOs, I bought xrp, factom, litecoin, eth, and others. Holding any of those over a multiple year time period instead of btc is a risk I am unwilling to take.

    The only game I’m interested in playing is acquiring as much btc as possible and holding it for years/decades.


    Totally fair. I, a retail person, know of friends and family who will have bought 7 figures of btc this year alone by the end of this month and have zero interest in alts.
     
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  19. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member



    From a few days ago
     
  20. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    We are all stacking alts to get more btc, and it’s working this year. My btc holdings have doubled as a result. I don’t know anyone in it for the tech this cycle, they’re in it for the money to stack sats and gtfo
     
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  21. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    An admirable endeavor. Just not one I have the time, patience, or risk appetite to pull off. The tax implications make it much harder too imo.

    I can’t pick stocks, and I can’t pick alts. So I’ll keep being basic and buying btc.
     
  22. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    At least you know. I’ll admit it takes a lot of effort and time to do it. Luckily I can commit as much time as needed, if you can’t you’re probably gonna get wrecked
     
  23. Whammy

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    Yeah I should have clarified, have a large basket of alts but will likely convert them at some point. Maybe keep one or two blue chips, but they’ll all crash again when BTC starts its dice.

    Ive already rotated into BTC from a number of positions
     
  24. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

  25. Penguin The Duck

    Penguin The Duck Well-Known Member / #NFT Influencer
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    Gas fees are going down making it easier to farm altcoins, but what you said. I'm starting to lean full BTC now. I travel too much and have had much more success over the years throwing everything at BTC.

    It takes 3 separate gas fees to convert and transfer my alctoins to another crypto or FIAT. A few weeks ago the fees were as high as $25. Lots of room for error if you're new to crypto and falling for the FOMO.
     
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  26. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    Just another friendly reminder that if you’re in it for the tech and not the money you’re gonna get wrecked. That includes btc. It will have its cycle end like markets do and it will violently correct much more than these 20-30% dips and take years to recover. It’s just how cycles work, don’t get caught up in this super cycle narrative all the maxis like to push.
     
  27. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

  28. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Not really sure what the "tech and not the money" comment means with respect to btc.

    And I'll go ahead and disagree on the super cycle thing being just a narrative versus something that could actually happen. The trend seems pretty clear that btc is eating the world as a global store of value: individuals saving in it, companies using it as a treasury reserve asset on a massive scale, and I think countries eventually doing the same.

    Could btc continue to move in cycles like it has since inception? Sure. This cycle that might look like the price going to $200k+ and then "crashing" to ~$100k (or lower) as a stabilizing range before the next halving in 2024. But I think it's unwise to dismiss the idea of btc being a global reserve asset: this cycle, next, or at some other time in the future. The total addressable market for btc is $100T+. I don't know if/when it gets there, and it would surely have plenty of runs and crashes along the way. But I don't think the odds are 0%, and I don't think the supercycle/hyperbitcoinization view is just a narrative.
     
  29. HuskerInMiami

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    Whenever I'm away from this thread a while it's fun to look and see how correct these statements are. I agree BTC>DOGE , but it's fun to see how the $ play out in a short timespan.

    Bitcoin was around $46,000 when you posted this. It's now over 54k. ~17.4% gain

    DOGE was at .052 compared to .057 right now. ~9.6% gain
     
  30. momux

    momux AFAM Scholar
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  31. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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  32. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    This cycle the "in it for the tech" narrative is the "it's the new store of value!" Sure, but doesn't mean you can't get wrecked by hodling endlessly. There is a very large distinction between it being a store of value and it being a store of value people don't flee from when it makes sense to. All stores of value have cycle corrections. Gold has like 1/5th the volatility as BTC and still suffers 50% drawdowns when the market cycle dictates it's not worth being invested. Personally it makes 0 sense to me to ride a hypothetical 200k to 100k drawdown because a cycle ended, which means it's not going to do much of anything until it picks back up a few years later down the line. That's a massive opportunity cost for allocated capital. Interest rates will rise at some point, and then they'll retrace again. When they rise BTC is going to get dumped fast.

    I think you're getting caught up in the "institutions are here" narrative - that's literally how adoption curves work for technology and was to be expected to get it from a 1T to 10T or whatever market cap this cycle. Just because they're investing now doesn't mean they're perma hodl investors. Hedge funds are going to eat people alive on the other side of this trade on the way down.
     
  33. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    This is basically now with SAND and people in the Phillippines
     
  34. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Bailout Bro
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  35. Brocktoon

    Brocktoon Well-Known Member
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    There's so much money to be made in this realm. Decentraland and Sandbox tokens have blown up and those games are really just starting. Sandbox has been dropping plots of "land" to develop and they are basically like a sneaker or Top Shot drops selling out instantly. Land bought for a few hundred sell for thousands and the game hasn't even fully launched.
     
  36. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    why did you pick Hegic? Serious question. Molly is a nut and the product sucks when I tried using it. Not hating I just don't get why people are bullish on it
     
  37. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Bailout Bro
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    I threw a dart on my watchlist of coins that were outside of top 500 marketcap. About the extent of thinking that went into it.
     
    #12342 Harrison Beck, Mar 9, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2021
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  38. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    In a world with hindsight, everyone would sell at $200k and buy back in at whatever the low is. In reality, that is an impossible task, has a tax risk, and has a substantial risk that you cannot call the top and end up buying at a higher price later.

    Institutions literally are here. Do they sell? Of course. Ruffer put in like $750m, doubled it, got push back from investors, and sold half so that they can free roll the rest. That approach is different than Saylor who at least publicly is treating this as something he’ll never sell.

    I’m not a trader, so my decision the next 4 years is the same easy one over the last 4 years. I’ll be a buyer at $100k, $200k, and $300k because I believe it is the single best place for me to store wealth long-term and because I think the trend is up and to the right.
     
  39. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Bailout Bro
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    This time is different. 4 most dangerous words in investing.
     
  40. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

  41. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Bailout Bro
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    Why wouldn’t they just load up on J.P. Morgan coin? I kinda miss husk guy
     
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  42. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Because she’s brilliant I’m sure these are worth reading

     
  43. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

  44. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    Meh. It's really not that difficult to side step most of the down move, there's dozens of indicators that have called tops in previous cycles if you backtest them. You don't have to nail it perfectly to save yourself a shitload of money, but more power to you. If you concentrate in it as hard you do, I just think it's very odd to not spend the time to manage your position as an investor.
     
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  45. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member