This is what I have been saying about proceeding with caution weekly close tonight is gonna be ugly, I expect people to dump again tonight based on it. Will it get bought quickly? We shall see
To be clear, I don’t consider a lot of the stuff that gets posted in here traditional TA with triangle patterns, etc. I put little to no merit in that stuff. Btc/crypto is a bit unique in that there is a ton of open source data regarding how much money is moving and at what prices. I think the glass node stats are pretty insightful. I don’t trade, so at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter to me. But still good insight on where things sit in the market.
Some solid TA from this channel. I thought the look back at the 2016-2017 bull run and to see a couple 30% + drops from BTC was refreshing. The 20 day 50 day moving average is a nice line to look at during this bull run, these coins seem to track back to the 20 day moving average more than we think it does.
when someone is selling 9,000 btc in one shot they've probably watched these cycles enough times and currently are sitting on more BTC than they were last week.. I've spent very little bandwidth learning about BTC, but at first blush from a dumb guy's perspective BTC whales seem generally not good for anyone looking to not trade BTC. Curious what the general consensus is..
Not sure I make the connection between whales being bad for people not looking to trade. Anybody who has ever bought and done nothing for any substantial period of time has seen a significant increase in price. I think it's much harder to be a trader given how volatile, unpredictable, and 24/7 the btc market is. Much easier to buy and wait.
probably the most common criticism I've heard from like cnbc types is the volatility.. if whales are exploiting and encouraging that volatility so they can come out with a larger holding I'm inclined to think normies and institutions are less likely to jump in with both feet Like you said when it's 69k(nice) in two weeks most everyone will have forgotten about this speed bump.. found the timing of that dip interesting though. Chicken or egg situation, call the chicken the timing and the egg stops / liquidations.. one requires a some tinfoil and that's the one I'm leaning towards.
Deposited close to .1 BTC on to America’s Cardroom back in the day. Only played a couple low buy-in MTTs. Think if I ask nicely, they’ll let me withdraw .1 BTC instead of $500?
No upside without the volatility. And even with the volatility it has a ridiculous sharpe ratio compared to other assets. Definitely agree with you though on certain retail and institutional people taking a simplistic approach to it and being scared off. I’m perfectly fine with down 20%, up 30%, down 15%, up 40%, etc. The long term trend is up and to the right.
I was able to recover my Bittrex account. They changed the email to my current personal email, but I still have to wait for it to process. Here's to hoping I moved over all my FCT to BTC before giving up on it.
Need a little guidance that's probably already in the thread but I'll ask anyway.. I'm looking at Bitcoin as a long term investment instead of holding a 100% cash reserve. To make the math easy, lets say I've got 100k in cash reserve that I hold for emergency and general liquidity. What % would you recommend converting to bitcoin? I have coinbase but should I use another platform? I'm not going to be trading, just making a large purchase and then dedicating a recurring monthly purchase instead of depositing cash into a savings account. Appreciate the help
Do you need any of the hypothetical $100k in the future? If not, and you’re just making a large purchase of btc with recurring future buys, then 100% of the reserve could go to btc. Buy on either Coinbase pro or kraken (if you have cheap wires). Kraken with cheap wires will get you the cheapest total fees. Coinbase pro with ach will be somewhat close. maybe I misread, but it doesn’t sound like you’re trying to get paid interest on it. If you are, do your own research on the risks associated with that and then check out blockfi.
Only if my wife or I lost a job and needed to adjust our lifestyle to accommodate to a lower income until we started working again. I could probably lose half of it and still be fine in case of emergency.
If you’re going to HODL BTC with your life savings, I would maybe do half on Blockfi or something to mitigate risk of it going down but be gaining interest on it plus future value.
Kind of the math I was operating with but I didn't know if there was a less obvious answer from the bitcoin club.
fwiw you can still invest it in safer mechanisms i just wouldn't touch crypto with that type of safety net fund
You are new to btc so you may not be aware that any given moment there are a million people with evidence as to why btc is going to go up or down in the near future. There will always be a better entry point but the consensus is that in a year or two the price will be higher. Do what you think is best
westcoastbias This is far from thread consensus fwiw. I wouldn’t say we’re “due” for anything. Invest what you’re willing to lose I suppose is the standard answer.
This is correct, it is my opinion. Certainly not gospel. Alot of indicators would say we're overbought, if it were me investing that kind of money I'd wait for a pullback but no one knows with certainty
Theoretically the pull back could have been from 65k to 54k? I think we are past the days of the bottom falling out but that’s just an opinion
And if it was my money, I’d put all of it in tomorrow. I think we’re in the middle of a bull market and the odds of btc being higher next week, month, or 3 months from now are greater than it being lower. Far from a certainty, but my view of the probability. RSI hasn’t hit 95 yet on a monthly basis, but it has done so numerous times in previous bull runs. $30s would surprise me (famous last words). And there’s an inherent risk in being out of the market when something like the Tesla news drops and we get a $10k daily candle. If someone would psychologically regret putting something like $50k in now, I’d suggest buying in like $10k chunks each day for the next 3 days or week, etc.